Miami Heat Offseason Thread Vol. 4: Fraudfather Snoozin 2.0

[powerball1373]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Who

I cannot say publicly, but this should give you an idea:

Lamian Dillard
Devin Kurant
Lawhi Keonard
Oelly Klynyk

I heard from the Twitter dorks that we finna go after Wictor Vembayama.

[SA37]

The salary cap this season is 140 million.

84 million gets you Butler and Bam. I like that.
74 million gets you Rozier, Herro and Robinson. I absolutely hate that.

Miami's paying over half the normal salary cap for Rozier, Herro and Robinson, that's insane for the value of players that gives them in player quality.

It just seems that the FO gets the best value from the players who have a cap (so they can't spend more) and just overpay like crazy for midlevel guys.

I mostly disagree on Herro and Rozier. There are some comps that make as much or more (RJ Barrett, Jordan Poole, CJ McCollum, Immanuel Quickley, Devin Vassell, Anfernee Simons) and others who make less (Jordan Clarkson, Malcolm Brogdon, Bojan Bogdanovic, D'Angelo Russell, Colin Sexton), but there is nothing egregious about their salaries -- certainly nothing like the massive overpays to guys like Bradley Beal or Zach Lavine.

Robinson is massively overpaid by almost any measure and especially if we look at the contracts his comps are getting this summer. Malik Beasley 1-year, $6M, Isaiah Joe 4-years, $48M. Even Buddy Hield, who is more complete, only got 2-years $21M guaranteed. Memphis passed on Luke Kennard's $14M option and I am assuming his new contract will likely be closer to $10M a season because ~$15M/year is what Grayson Allen and Klay Thompson are on.

You're naming a whole bunch of players I like better than Rozier or Harro. You need to take in consideration, Herro is hunted in the playoffs, not so much in the regular season, Rozier may also get hunted, if you're paying an offensive only player anywhere near that money you better get some good offense out of them. I think Herro can be shut down, Rozier... may not be as easy to shut down as he's a better 3 level scorer although not the shooter that Herro is, just more diversified as a scorer.

Certainly Herro and Rozier are flawed players, but every player I named has flaws and limitations, which is why none of them are all-stars or even in the running to be an all-star.

I think Herro suffers to a degree from expectations he just hasn't lived up to, and that skews people's view of him. He's a good player, but he's just not going to ever be the #1 or #2 option on a championship team. I don't think Herro has the playmaking or ball-handling skills to be the kind of next-level scorer you're talking about.

As for Rozier, I think he was the best Miami could do given what they could offer in a trade. He's inconsistent, streaky, and has limited playmaking abilities, which kind of makes him a classic tweener given his size. I think your analysis is correct that he is a more diversified scorer, but is limited because his shot doesn't always fall.

[Bishop45]

Read on Twitter

Sign me up for some Lonnie Walker

[VaDe255]

The Heat dodged the bullet with DeMar; he would have just taken away playing time from younger players, and his mid-range game didn't fit the team's style. I’d give the front office a B for this offseason. There just wasn’t anyone available at a price they could afford. Running it back while saving assets and developing young talent is a solid plan.

The only thing missing is unloading Jimmy.
The Heat might be waiting for a difference-maker to become available either during this season or next offseason, that is how I explain it.

[VaDe255]

I mostly disagree on Herro and Rozier. There are some comps that make as much or more (RJ Barrett, Jordan Poole, CJ McCollum, Immanuel Quickley, Devin Vassell, Anfernee Simons) and others who make less (Jordan Clarkson, Malcolm Brogdon, Bojan Bogdanovic, D'Angelo Russell, Colin Sexton), but there is nothing egregious about their salaries -- certainly nothing like the massive overpays to guys like Bradley Beal or Zach Lavine.

Robinson is massively overpaid by almost any measure and especially if we look at the contracts his comps are getting this summer. Malik Beasley 1-year, $6M, Isaiah Joe 4-years, $48M. Even Buddy Hield, who is more complete, only got 2-years $21M guaranteed. Memphis passed on Luke Kennard's $14M option and I am assuming his new contract will likely be closer to $10M a season because ~$15M/year is what Grayson Allen and Klay Thompson are on.

You're naming a whole bunch of players I like better than Rozier or Harro. You need to take in consideration, Herro is hunted in the playoffs, not so much in the regular season, Rozier may also get hunted, if you're paying an offensive only player anywhere near that money you better get some good offense out of them. I think Herro can be shut down, Rozier... may not be as easy to shut down as he's a better 3 level scorer although not the shooter that Herro is, just more diversified as a scorer.

Certainly Herro and Rozier are flawed players, but every player I named has flaws and limitations, which is why none of them are all-stars or even in the running to be an all-star.

I think Herro suffers to a degree from expectations he just hasn't lived up to, and that skews people's view of him. He's a good player, but he's just not going to ever be the #1 or #2 option on a championship team. I don't think Herro has the playmaking or ball-handling skills to be the kind of next-level scorer you're talking about.

As for Rozier, I think he was the best Miami could do given what they could offer in a trade. He's inconsistent, streaky, and has limited playmaking abilities, which kind of makes him a classic tweener given his size. I think you're analysis is correct that he is a more diversified scorer, but is limited because his shot doesn't always fall.

Absolutely, Herro isn't the #1 or #2 option right now, but he's also only 24 years old. Most players at that age simply aren't expected to be at their peak performance.

There’s still a chance he takes a significant leap for several reasons. First, player development isn't always linear. Many players continue to grow and refine their skills well into their mid-to-late 20s. Herro has shown flashes of high-level play, particularly with his shooting and scoring abilities, as seen in his great game vs. Chicago in the play-in and his one big performance against a high-quality Boston team.

Herro's work ethic and determination can't be overlooked. He's shown a willingness to put in the effort to improve his game, and with the right coaching and development within Miami's system, there's potential for him to elevate his performance. This is the first year where he really had to take on the #1 scoring/playmaking role because Jimmy was out so frequently. Notably, Bam and Herro had a good record without Jimmy as well. He faced a lot of defensive coverages and game plans designed to take him out of the game, which is a valuable learning experience.

As he gains more experience, especially in high-stakes situations, he could learn to better handle defensive pressure and find ways to be more effective even when targeted.

[Bmaster]

Don't think hero will ever be #1 or #2 option

[SA37]

Spoiler:

You're naming a whole bunch of players I like better than Rozier or Harro. You need to take in consideration, Herro is hunted in the playoffs, not so much in the regular season, Rozier may also get hunted, if you're paying an offensive only player anywhere near that money you better get some good offense out of them. I think Herro can be shut down, Rozier... may not be as easy to shut down as he's a better 3 level scorer although not the shooter that Herro is, just more diversified as a scorer.

Certainly Herro and Rozier are flawed players, but every player I named has flaws and limitations, which is why none of them are all-stars or even in the running to be an all-star.

I think Herro suffers to a degree from expectations he just hasn't lived up to, and that skews people's view of him. He's a good player, but he's just not going to ever be the #1 or #2 option on a championship team. I don't think Herro has the playmaking or ball-handling skills to be the kind of next-level scorer you're talking about.

As for Rozier, I think he was the best Miami could do given what they could offer in a trade. He's inconsistent, streaky, and has limited playmaking abilities, which kind of makes him a classic tweener given his size. I think you're analysis is correct that he is a more diversified scorer, but is limited because his shot doesn't always fall.

Absolutely, Herro isn't the #1 or #2 option right now, but he's also only 24 years old. Most players at that age simply aren't expected to be at their peak performance.

There’s still a chance he takes a significant leap for several reasons. First, player development isn't always linear. Many players continue to grow and refine their skills well into their mid-to-late 20s. Herro has shown flashes of high-level play, particularly with his shooting and scoring abilities, as seen in his great game vs. Chicago in the play-in and his one big performance against a high-quality Boston team.

Herro's work ethic and determination can't be overlooked. He's shown a willingness to put in the effort to improve his game, and with the right coaching and development within Miami's system, there's potential for him to elevate his performance. This is the first year where he really had to take on the #1 scoring/playmaking role because Jimmy was out so frequently. Notably, Bam and Herro had a good record without Jimmy as well. He faced a lot of defensive coverages and game plans designed to take him out of the game, which is a valuable learning experience.

As he gains more experience, especially in high-stakes situations, he could learn to better handle defensive pressure and find ways to be more effective even when targeted.

Depite Herro's work ethic, his improvements over the last 3 seasons have been marginal, at best. His numbers are stagnant across the board. There isn't a single, solitary sign that Herro is destined to change this over the next 3 years, especially when you consider his playoff performance in 22' (12-4-3 41-23-93 1.8 FTA) and this past series where Butler was out (17-3-5 38-35-90 1.8 FTA)

As a means of comparison at 24:

Herro: 21ppg 5rpg 4apg 44 fg% 40 3pt% 86 ft% 2.8 FTA

Booker: 25-4-4 48 fg% 34 3pt% 87 ft% 6 FTA

Lavine: 25-5-4 45-38-80 5.6 FTA

Jaylen Brown: 25-6-3 48-40-76 4 FTA

Mitchell: 26-4-5 44-38-85 6 FTA

Harden: 25-5-6 45-36-87 9 FTA

Irving: 25-3-6 47-40-90 4.6 FTA

Beal: 22-4-4 46-37-79 4.5 FTA

SGA: 31-5-5 51-34-90 11 FTA

McCollum: 21-3-4 45-42-83 2.8 FTA

The guys Herro compares to the best are McCollum, who has never been an all-star and is the comp I have always said was the most accurate, and Beal, who outside of 2 monster scoring seasons, is a borderline all-star who gets you ~22 per game.

Of course, we've seen late bloomers, like Chauncey Billups, Kyle Lowry, or now Jalen Brunson who all had breakout years after 25, but they are the exception, not the rule. In any case, Brunson is the only star. Lowry and Billups' careers are supremely overrated in my view.

[Flash4thewin]

Would anyone do Khris Middleton for Tyler Herro? I'd be intrigued by the idea. Feel like we are getting ripped off in a way, which probably means it is actually fair. One less year on Khris contract, and probably fits more seamlessly into the background, but also on the decline. Herro has some hometown value for Milwaukee I imagine.

Herro on paper looks like an excellent fit with Milwaukee especially considering the hometown value. This is why Lillard 2.0 looks so interesting.

It'll come down to what the snake Giannis wants. He has proven to be shortsighted with the Dame/Holiday move (gifted Celtics a title) and HC carousel (ending up with Doc Rivers).

Herro for Middleton makes alot of sense. No way they ever trade Dame for Herro, thats franchise suicide since Giannis specifically requested him and they haven't even had one playoff run healthy together. No realistic chance of that happening unless Herro magically becomes Booker 2.0

To be fair hiring Doc is also franchise suicide so who knows lol

[MettaWorldPanda]

Herro on paper looks like an excellent fit with Milwaukee especially considering the hometown value. This is why Lillard 2.0 looks so interesting.

It'll come down to what the snake Giannis wants. He has proven to be shortsighted with the Dame/Holiday move (gifted Celtics a title) and HC carousel (ending up with Doc Rivers).

Herro for Middleton makes alot of sense. No way they ever trade Dame for Herro, thats franchise suicide since Giannis specifically requested him and they haven't even had one playoff run healthy together. No realistic chance of that happening unless Herro magically becomes Booker 2.0

To be fair hiring Doc is also franchise suicide so who knows lol

Giannis requested Dame but Dame never requested Milwaukee so essentially he’s holding Dame hostage lol. I was thinking Herro and Rozier 2030 1st, and two swaps for Lillard. I don’t think that’s a bad trade for a 34 year old Lillard.

[Rapaz]

Doc Rivers In Awe Of Mami Heat's Ability To Find Players Like Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez

The Miami Heat had the No. 27 and No. 18 picks in the past two NBA drafts because of their success.

It's safe to say they made the most of their selections.

The Heat turned those choices into Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez, who have been consistent contributors since their arrivals. Their ability to become instant impact players despite being low draft picks has impressed many, including Milwaukee Bucks coach Doc Rivers.

“Just Miami does it again,” Rivers said recently. “It’s funny, I was not even in a competitive role, honestly, but it pissed me off. Like how do they keep getting these guys in the 20s? They keep doing it. “And basically the reason is, and I even asked Erik this — and that time he would tell me, I don’t think he would tell me any more — they kind of target guys that fit their culture and the way they want to play.”

Jovic had 24 points on eight 3-pointers in the Heat's victory against the Bucks earlier this week. Jaquez was arguably a candidate for Rookie of the Year before he was slowed by a hamstring injury. Still, he will participate in the Rising Stars game and dunk contest during All-Star weekend.

“Jaquez, I mean, he’s the perfect fit for who they are and how they want to be,” Rivers said. “You know, it’s funny, I think certain guys actually target them, ‘Man, I’d fit in this system.’ Utah did that for years with Jerry Sloan. They kept doing it. And Miami’s doing it. But it’s more about their system and how they play, and how they target. But both of those guys are fun to watch.”

https://www.si.com/nba/heat/miami-news/doc-rivers-in-awe-of-mami-heats-ability-to-find-players-like-nikola-jovic-jaime-jaquez


Doc will want one or both

[3ammy3uck3ts]

You're naming a whole bunch of players I like better than Rozier or Harro. You need to take in consideration, Herro is hunted in the playoffs, not so much in the regular season, Rozier may also get hunted, if you're paying an offensive only player anywhere near that money you better get some good offense out of them. I think Herro can be shut down, Rozier... may not be as easy to shut down as he's a better 3 level scorer although not the shooter that Herro is, just more diversified as a scorer.

Certainly Herro and Rozier are flawed players, but every player I named has flaws and limitations, which is why none of them are all-stars or even in the running to be an all-star.

I think Herro suffers to a degree from expectations he just hasn't lived up to, and that skews people's view of him. He's a good player, but he's just not going to ever be the #1 or #2 option on a championship team. I don't think Herro has the playmaking or ball-handling skills to be the kind of next-level scorer you're talking about.

As for Rozier, I think he was the best Miami could do given what they could offer in a trade. He's inconsistent, streaky, and has limited playmaking abilities, which kind of makes him a classic tweener given his size. I think you're analysis is correct that he is a more diversified scorer, but is limited because his shot doesn't always fall.

Absolutely, Herro isn't the #1 or #2 option right now, but he's also only 24 years old. Most players at that age simply aren't expected to be at their peak performance.

There’s still a chance he takes a significant leap for several reasons. First, player development isn't always linear. Many players continue to grow and refine their skills well into their mid-to-late 20s. Herro has shown flashes of high-level play, particularly with his shooting and scoring abilities, as seen in his great game vs. Chicago in the play-in and his one big performance against a high-quality Boston team.

Herro's work ethic and determination can't be overlooked. He's shown a willingness to put in the effort to improve his game, and with the right coaching and development within Miami's system, there's potential for him to elevate his performance. This is the first year where he really had to take on the #1 scoring/playmaking role because Jimmy was out so frequently. Notably, Bam and Herro had a good record without Jimmy as well. He faced a lot of defensive coverages and game plans designed to take him out of the game, which is a valuable learning experience.

As he gains more experience, especially in high-stakes situations, he could learn to better handle defensive pressure and find ways to be more effective even when targeted.

[VaDe255]

Spoiler:

Certainly Herro and Rozier are flawed players, but every player I named has flaws and limitations, which is why none of them are all-stars or even in the running to be an all-star.

I think Herro suffers to a degree from expectations he just hasn't lived up to, and that skews people's view of him. He's a good player, but he's just not going to ever be the #1 or #2 option on a championship team. I don't think Herro has the playmaking or ball-handling skills to be the kind of next-level scorer you're talking about.

As for Rozier, I think he was the best Miami could do given what they could offer in a trade. He's inconsistent, streaky, and has limited playmaking abilities, which kind of makes him a classic tweener given his size. I think you're analysis is correct that he is a more diversified scorer, but is limited because his shot doesn't always fall.

Absolutely, Herro isn't the #1 or #2 option right now, but he's also only 24 years old. Most players at that age simply aren't expected to be at their peak performance.

There’s still a chance he takes a significant leap for several reasons. First, player development isn't always linear. Many players continue to grow and refine their skills well into their mid-to-late 20s. Herro has shown flashes of high-level play, particularly with his shooting and scoring abilities, as seen in his great game vs. Chicago in the play-in and his one big performance against a high-quality Boston team.

Herro's work ethic and determination can't be overlooked. He's shown a willingness to put in the effort to improve his game, and with the right coaching and development within Miami's system, there's potential for him to elevate his performance. This is the first year where he really had to take on the #1 scoring/playmaking role because Jimmy was out so frequently. Notably, Bam and Herro had a good record without Jimmy as well. He faced a lot of defensive coverages and game plans designed to take him out of the game, which is a valuable learning experience.

As he gains more experience, especially in high-stakes situations, he could learn to better handle defensive pressure and find ways to be more effective even when targeted.

Depite Herro's work ethic, his improvements over the last 3 seasons have been marginal, at best. His numbers are stagnant across the board. There isn't a single, solitary sign that Herro is destined to change this over the next 3 years, especially when you consider his playoff performance in 22' (12-4-3 41-23-93 1.8 FTA) and this past series where Butler was out (17-3-5 38-35-90 1.8 FTA)

As a means of comparison at 24:

Herro: 21ppg 5rpg 4apg 44 fg% 40 3pt% 86 ft% 2.8 FTA

Booker: 25-4-4 48 fg% 34 3pt% 87 ft% 6 FTA

Lavine: 25-5-4 45-38-80 5.6 FTA

Jaylen Brown: 25-6-3 48-40-76 4 FTA

Mitchell: 26-4-5 44-38-85 6 FTA

Harden: 25-5-6 45-36-87 9 FTA

Irving: 25-3-6 47-40-90 4.6 FTA

Beal: 22-4-4 46-37-79 4.5 FTA

SGA: 31-5-5 51-34-90 11 FTA

McCollum: 21-3-4 45-42-83 2.8 FTA

The guys Herro compares to the best are McCollum, who has never been an all-star and is the comp I have always said was the most accurate, and Beal, who outside of 2 monster scoring seasons, is a borderline all-star who gets you ~22 per game.

Of course, we've seen late bloomers, like Chauncey Billups, Kyle Lowry, or now Jalen Brunson who all had breakout years after 25, but they are the exception, not the rule. In any case, Brunson is the only star. Lowry and Billups' careers are supremely overrated in my view.

It's unlikely that Herro will suddenly become an all-star level player (and I'm not saying that, despite the chance also not being entirely zero), but there’s still potential for growth. Player development isn't always predictable, and some players take a bit longer to really hit their best form. Even if he doesn’t reach the level of, say, Booker, Herro can still be a very valuable player for the Heat.

He already is a very versatile offensive player who can excel in many roles, whether on or off the ball, as a spot-up shooter, or as a secondary playmaker. If he continues to refine his skills and adapt to different roles within the team, he can contribute to their success. Moreover, he's not paid like a superstar, so the gap between his current performance and his contract value isn't large.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

There’s some good names out there still, just gotta get something done. Need to be very active in trades as well, get Jimmy and Bam their guy (Lauri, Dame, Trae, Lavine, etc.)

[VaDe255]

There’s some good names out there still, just gotta get something done. Need to be very active in trades as well, get Jimmy and Bam their guy (Lauri, Dame, Trae, Lavine, etc.)

Pretty sure they'd rather have Herro than LaVine. While LaVine is a better player right now, his contract and health issues make it too risky. Plus, the Heat know what they have in Herro—he gives effort and has room to grow. With LaVine, there are more uncertainties. There's simply no way they'd make that trade.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

There’s some good names out there still, just gotta get something done. Need to be very active in trades as well, get Jimmy and Bam their guy (Lauri, Dame, Trae, Lavine, etc.)

Pretty sure they'd rather have Herro than LaVine. While LaVine is a better player right now, his contract and health issues make it too risky. Plus, the Heat know what they have in Herro—he gives effort and has room to grow. With LaVine, there are more uncertainties. There's simply no way they'd make that trade.

You also get at least a 1st possibly more back with Lavine, Herro is also always hurt. It’s a 3 year deal if Lavine doesn’t work send out his massive expiring in 2 summers. Much better and more explosive scorer than Herro, not even close

[HeatIn5]

There’s some good names out there still, just gotta get something done. Need to be very active in trades as well, get Jimmy and Bam their guy (Lauri, Dame, Trae, Lavine, etc.)

Pretty sure they'd rather have Herro than LaVine. While LaVine is a better player right now, his contract and health issues make it too risky. Plus, the Heat know what they have in Herro—he gives effort and has room to grow. With LaVine, there are more uncertainties. There's simply no way they'd make that trade.

You also get at least a 1st possibly more back with Lavine, Herro is also always hurt. It’s a 3 year deal if Lavine doesn’t work send out his massive expiring in 2 summers. Much better and more explosive scorer than Herro, not even close

We need assets so bad that I’d be willing to gamble on lavine if we’re getting a Chicago 1st back. Just gotta pray we can unload in 26-27. He has a 46M player option, which he’ll likely accept. That’s a big expiring to use in a S&T for a guy like Fox.

People in here mentioned that players usually resign and don’t hit FA, but having a big expiring to move in a deal could be helpful. I’d personally rather Lavine trying to prove he can still be a star over Herro with an ego

[Voltron914]

The Heat dodged the bullet with DeMar; he would have just taken away playing time from younger players, and his mid-range game didn't fit the team's style. I’d give the front office a B for this offseason. There just wasn’t anyone available at a price they could afford. Running it back while saving assets and developing young talent is a solid plan.

The only thing missing is unloading Jimmy.
The Heat might be waiting for a difference-maker to become available either during this season or next offseason, that is how I explain it.

i liked the way the offseason played out. no bad extensions or contracts yet. i like highsmith for his role on defense so hopefully we can keep him on a decent deal. i dont get the impression that jimmy wants to leave so hopefully Riley's jab motivated him. if not ship him out by the deadline and start the Bam era. i love Jimmy but we are fortunate enough to another young star to build around. Bam can be like KG on a future heat big 3

[Beenie]

There’s some good names out there still, just gotta get something done. Need to be very active in trades as well, get Jimmy and Bam their guy (Lauri, Dame, Trae, Lavine, etc.)

Pretty sure they'd rather have Herro than LaVine. While LaVine is a better player right now, his contract and health issues make it too risky. Plus, the Heat know what they have in Herro—he gives effort and has room to grow. With LaVine, there are more uncertainties. There's simply no way they'd make that trade.

Depends on the health of the relationship between Herro and the team which seems mildly bruised at the very least.

Herro’s been in trade rumors for 4 consecutive offseasons now and seems a bit sensitive.

[HeatIn5]

There’s some good names out there still, just gotta get something done. Need to be very active in trades as well, get Jimmy and Bam their guy (Lauri, Dame, Trae, Lavine, etc.)

Pretty sure they'd rather have Herro than LaVine. While LaVine is a better player right now, his contract and health issues make it too risky. Plus, the Heat know what they have in Herro—he gives effort and has room to grow. With LaVine, there are more uncertainties. There's simply no way they'd make that trade.

Depends on the health of the relationship between Herro and the team which seems mildly bruised at the very least.

Herro’s been in trade rumors for 4 consecutive offseasons now and seems a bit sensitive.

Yea I think last year, even though he kinda laughed it off publicly, definitely hurt his ego and caused his effort level to go down this year. He was a completely different player mentally it appeared (without knowing what goes on behind closed doors). Now this offseason, you can see he’s starting to break from laughing it Off to petty annoyance.

I think It’s time for us to cut ties before it become destructive. I still believe he has some value, even if not what it was.

But it’s time.

[Beenie]

There’s some good names out there still, just gotta get something done. Need to be very active in trades as well, get Jimmy and Bam their guy (Lauri, Dame, Trae, Lavine, etc.)

Pretty sure they'd rather have Herro than LaVine. While LaVine is a better player right now, his contract and health issues make it too risky. Plus, the Heat know what they have in Herro—he gives effort and has room to grow. With LaVine, there are more uncertainties. There's simply no way they'd make that trade.

You also get at least a 1st possibly more back with Lavine, Herro is also always hurt. It’s a 3 year deal if Lavine doesn’t work send out his massive expiring in 2 summers. Much better and more explosive scorer than Herro, not even close

Someone made the point, might have been MWP, that Chi is unlikely to include a FRP to move off of Lavine if it means that they have to take back big salary for multiple seasons in return.

If im Chi’s GM, I wouldn’t surrender a pick if it meant taking back Herro. It would just be player(s) for player(s).