Post#36 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Jul 9, 2024 6:20 am
So, let me go through my basic starting process here - doing this without looking what I concluded the last time I did this (though I know Mikan was my #1 lol). Key thing here: First thing I try to do is figure out what people at the time would have thought, and from there only deviate if I have a good enough reason to deviate. So this is kind of a circuitous approach that probably just feels like rambling on.
Who were the players celebrated on a level at the time that would make them seem likely POY candidates, and who did they play for?
All-NBA 1st Team
Bob Davies (Roc)
Alex Groza (Ind)
George Mikan (Mpl)
Jim Pollard (Mpl)
Max Zaslofsky (Chi)
All-NBA 2nd Team
Ralph Beard (Ind)
Frankie Brian (And)
Al Cervi (Syr)
Fred Schaus (FtW)
Dolph Schayes (Syr)
If we look at their representation sorted by standings:
Syracuse 51-13 (Cervi, Schayes)
Minneapolis 51-13 (Mikan, Pollard)
Rochester 51-13 (Davies)
New York 40-28 (none)
Fort Wayne 40-28 (Schaus)
Chicago 40-28 (Zaslofsky)
Indianapolis 39-25 (Groza, Beard)
Anderson 37-27 (Brian)
Note that Anderson is the last >.500 team in the league, so all All-NBA players came from winning teams - as is often something close to how things go.
I'll focus on these teams first, as well as foremost.
Syracuse - I don't think there's any doubt that Cervi & Schayes defined the team. Aside from the fact that Schayes was the lead scorer and 2nd assist man, and Cervi was the 3rd scorer and 1st assist man, Cervi was also player-coach and renowned both for his individual defense and the defense of the team's he coached. But Cervi is older at this point, and these Nationals appear to have only been pretty-good on defense, gaining more of an an advantage from offense, which I think everyone always agree was primarily about Schayes. I'd tend to see Schayes as the top POY candidate of the team followed by Cervi, with Schayes the potential OPOY candidate and Cervi the potential DPOY candidate.
Minneapolis - Mikan & Pollard are the big stars, and the guys scoring the most and assisting the most, but I'd be remiss not to also mention Vern Mikkelsen who will rise to great prominence in later years with a much stronger TS% than Pollard, and strong rebounding numbers. For the record, while I've seriously considered elevating Mikkelsen over Pollard generally based on these statistical indicators, I still side with Pollard. I think it's pretty clear that the way the Lakers played based on Mikan, the perimeter teammates ended up with crappy stats, and yet it's Pollard more than anyone else - even Mikan - that plays the big minutes all through the Laker champion runs. I think Pollard was doing a lot more than we can see from the box score. In terms of offense & defense, frankly I'd just side with Mikan as the candidate on both sides of the ball.
Rochester - Davies was the clear cut star of the team at this point. While teammate Arnie Risen is someone who I do at times have as a major candidate, he clearly is aa lesser focus at this time. Royals here, as in general, looks like a team led by a dominant offense, and Davies was the quarterback of that offense. Just regular season here (playoffs later), Davies has a pretty strong case for OPOY I think.
New York - How interesting is it that the only team I listed out with no All-NBA players is the Big Market? Carl Braun seems to be the guy worth considering here. Biggest numbers on the team this year, and we know going forward into the future that Braun really is the guard the team swears by (when he's not in the military) in the time to come. I should mention Harry Gallatin who is the other guy you can really argue the Knicks embraced as a franchise player. We know from future years that Gallatin was a hell of a rebounder...but we also know that the team sees their best years before they really hand Gallatin that primacy.
Fort Wayne - Fred Schaus is clearly the big scorer on his team, and a natural guy to think is the best player on that team. Data indicates that the team is good because of their defense though. Possibly there's a defender from the group I should be looking to identify from other articles.
Chicago - The final year of the Stags, and the final year of Zaslofsky looking like a superstar. He's the natural choice to consider here...although the estimate that the Stars were so weak on offense is concerning. Earlier in that BAA time, they really did appear to be an offensive powerhouse, but by this time they've faded. Zaslofsky fading as well with his first non +100 TS Add season, and after this season, he'll never post anything even this positive again.
Indianapolis - The great example of a college championship core then becoming a pro team. What they did this season seems largely to live up to the hype. This would be an appropriate time to point out that Groza topped the entire league with a massive +377.4 TS Add, about 80 above Mikan, and way more than double anyone else. Fellow former Wildcat Board was the clear 2nd banana of the group in perception, though as a facilitator it's always possible he was actually more valuable than the guy he was passing to. I'll stick with Groza as the top POY/OPOY candidate of the team.
Anderson - They like Chicago will cease to be an NBA team after the year. Brian was the guy getting accolades, is the lead scorer, and went on to be an all-star for another team after this...on the other hand the team's defense seems to have been the key to their success. I've seen that discussed some already and will look to evaluate from there. It's really weird with Howie Schultz changing from this Packer team to the Fort Wayne Pistons mid-way through the year - and also that each team ends up Top 2 by eminence's metric.
Alright, let's go back to the 1st team now with both team context and some stats in mind. 2 of the 1st Teamers have a massive lead in Win Shares over the entire rest of the league - Mikan & Groza. As mentioned, they also both have the lead by TS Add. Based on all of this, along with the hype surrounding Groza, I think if there were a regular season voting, we'd probably have Mikan 1, Groza 2.
Of the 3 elite regular season teams (Nationals, Lakers, Royals), they make up 3 of the 5 1st Team spots, and while I'd guess that Pollard as an MVP candidate would tend to slide due to Mikan's pre-eminence, Davies seems like a natural for a high spot. I'd guess #3, though honestly I could see him at 2.
The Nationals only have 2nd teamers, so there's something of an assumption that Pollard & Zaslofsky would be getting the final 2 ballot spots over Schayes. I do think it's possible that Schayes would have actually ended up ahead of Pollard, but for now I'll keep Pollard ahead.
So then, my guess at what the MVP of the time would have been:
1. Mikan
2. Groza
3. Davies
4. Zaslofsky
5. Pollard
HM: Schayes, Brian, Cervi, Schaus, Beard
What happens in the playoffs?
Well, the Lakers march through to the title going up against the Nationals in the final who seem like they earned their place as the 2nd best team in the league. Mikan is utterly dominant and a clear cut #1 POY guy with a case for OPOY & DPOY. Schayes is a bit spottier, but still I can't help but see him as proving more than Pollard at least (who seems to drop off with respect to Mikkelsen this year in the playoffs), so I expect to have him ahead of Pollard on the POY list.
Davies' Royals...what happened? Honestly, if anyone has a source explaining what happened, I'd love to hear it. The rivalry was pretty even in the regular season (3-3) so a possible "upset" was always in the cards, but man, when you lose to a lower seed in a sweep, that's a legit upset, and Davies scoring looks awful. Bizarrely, the elite-offense Royals still dominate by eFG% & FT/FGA which are the only of the 4 factors we have. Assuming the data is correct, it must mean that the Pistons dominated in at least one of TO% & OR%, but the funny thing is, while Davies' individual scoring looks bad, we can't really say that the Royals' offense got stopped. His POY & OPOY candidacies are definitely damaged, but maybe not to the point he won't be on any ballots. On the other hand, maybe we should be looking at teammate Bobby Wanzer who looks better statistically in that series. Had the Royals gone on to a great playoff run led by Wanzer instead of Davies it would be easy to elevate him at the lead Royals, but leading a team to exactly zero playoff wins isn't exactly a lot to go by to go against the wisdom of the time.
On the other hand, led the team in Win Shares in both the RS & PS, and was 4th in the whole league in TS Add trailing only Groza, MIkan & Ed Macauley, so maybe he should have always been the guy given the most credit. I think we do have to understand that Davies brought Wanzer to Rochester through their connection at Seton Hall, and they weren't just carbon copies. My understanding has always been that Davies was extraordinary playmaker, while Wanzer more score-first. And in '49-50, clearly this was a team that was built more around Davies than Wanzer, and hence it's quite possible that the reason why Wanzer looked better in the playoffs by the numbers is that he wasn't what the defense was focused on stopping.
The Olympians get upset by a single basket in the final winner-take-all-game in the second round by the second place team from their division (Packers). Not too damning in terms of the upset imho, super-close, and Beard was missing time and clearly not himself. I don't see this as something to really drag Groza down in general, though as I say that, Mikan and the Lakers seem to be a more dominant offensive team against the Packers than Groza and the Olympians. I'll also say that I'm not really sold on Brian leaping up over guys based on the playoffs.
Over to Zaslofsky? More big scoring numbers on a team that doesn't really go anywhere, but was technically more competitive than the Pistons or the Packers against their mutual opponent (Lakers). Still not seeing indicators that the Stags were being super-effective on offense, and knowing what I know about Zaslofsky's future, as well as the fact that he had a rather legendary point guard on this stag team next to him (Andy Philip), and that teammate despite being older would seem to fair a lot better in the NBA of the '50s.
Circling back to Schaus, it would really help his cause if he had obviously big numbers in the upset win over the Royals but he doesn't. He has big numbers against the Lakers subsequently...but not enough to make the series all that close.
I think the only guy here I've mentioned that I haven't really talked about at all is Macauley. He's known as one of the great offensive players of the early NBA. He's also not yet quite his best self yet and he's on a failing team that will fold when the season ends. He is a candidate here, but not a super-strong one to me.
Looking back over the guys I've talked about, I despair because I have so many issues with basically everyone but Mikan, Groza & Schayes, who feel like they've consolidated into a top 3 likely for both the POY & OPOY.
Makes sense to circle back to some #2's then aside from Wanzer (if he's even a mere #2). Pollard & Cervi are clearly critical to the success of their teams and I don't think can reasonably be said to have disappointed dramatically (as we might say of Davies). Of the two Cervi feels the more solid to me in terms of my confidence in his impact, despite his lesser scoring numbers, but part of that is impact that might be argued to be "coaching impact". How do we distinguish between playing impact and coaching impact for a player-coach? Hard to say, but I'll say that the idea that we would potentially count leadership as a plus for other players but not give a player-coach that same plus because we say it's coaching credit doesn't sit right. While Schayes is the talent of the team, he's also a kid here and there's no doubt that Cervi is the leader of the team in basically all capacities. That's no small thing.
So then, I think Cervi's making my 5, and Pollard may well make it. I'm thinking hard about both Davies & Wanzer. Zaslofsky is obviously someone not to dismiss easily, but I have to I'm not that enamored with what he was doing at this stage on a sinking ship even if it wasn't necessarily something you could reasonably say was "his fault".
Before I put them in some order though, I want to talk some about DPOY and read the thoughts of others because defensive players are necessarily easy to identify with the data we have.
First off, Mikan is a towering presence and a likely #1.
The top two defenses in the regular season, per eminence, were the Packers & Pistons, who have this strange throughline with Schultz. Really curious to try to learn more about who deserves credit for these teams doing what they were doing.
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