Sixers Offseason Thread Part 4

[ckchen]

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The continuity of having Oubre back is going to be huge.

I certainly hope so. I also hope he's serious about All-Defensive being a goal. If he can dedicate himself to that and shoot respectably from deep, he could stick around long-term.

For fun, here's what the next 3 years could look like if Oubre & Drummond opt out next year but re-sign to multi-year deals:



(Yes, I'm a big nerd)

We're all plotting on how Morey can use a KJ balloon payment to trade for someone and staying under the 2nd apron, while Sixers ownership is actually plotting out way to stay under the tax (UDFAs have lower minimums...)

Be careful, you are dangerously close to committing the apparently cardinal sin of implying that they might be running the team like a "business" heaven forbid.

I guess this is under the assumption that we are trading that 2026 LAC 1st round pick because that either needs to be in there or some accounting for whatever we are packaging it for.

[Stanford]

It's a business, folks!

[NearingZero]

I guess this is under the assumption that we are trading that 2026 LAC 1st round pick because that either needs to be in there or some accounting for whatever we are packaging it for.

That pick is the worst of OKC/HOU/LAC, right? So that & Philly's pick will both be late, I expect.

And yeah, I'm assuming one on those will go out in a trade this year if they do any kind of KJ Martin balloon. Not a sure thing of course, but pretty reasonable I think.

[ckchen]

For fun, here's what the next 3 years could look like if Oubre & Drummond opt out next year but re-sign to multi-year deals:



(Yes, I'm a big nerd)

A *real* nerd wouldn't forget to include Eric Gordon's vet min. J/K bro good work. Throw KMart in there at $15m also while you're at it.

The KJ trade slot is line 14. Ideally, you find a guy under control for 3 years that fits into the 2nd apron space each year. I still think you need a bit of buffer, so $8-10M would be my target.

Seems unlikely the Bulls would trade Jalen Smith this year, but his contract would slot in perfectly. Slo Mo would be a more realistic possibility if the Warriors struggle.

Edit: also, this assumes Oubre get his full 175% via Early-Bird rights. The NTMLE will be slightly above that amount, so he may have some leverage to get that full amount. But hopefully he takes less (or just opts in).

What this does is pretty much illustrate how close to the 2nd apron any kind of balloon payment for KJ takes the team. If you trade him for anyone making $12M or who you would have to re-sign for over $12M after trading for him, they have immediately crossed into the 2nd apron by next season.

BTW - if you assume that they do is cross the 2nd apron, doesn't that mean they don't have access to any exceptions in Year 3 of this sheet?

[NearingZero]

A *real* nerd wouldn't forget to include Eric Gordon's vet min. J/K bro good work. Throw KMart in there at $15m also while you're at it.

The KJ trade slot is line 14. Ideally, you find a guy under control for 3 years that fits into the 2nd apron space each year. I still think you need a bit of buffer, so $8-10M would be my target.

Seems unlikely the Bulls would trade Jalen Smith this year, but his contract would slot in perfectly. Slo Mo would be a more realistic possibility if the Warriors struggle.

Edit: also, this assumes Oubre get his full 175% via Early-Bird rights. The NTMLE will be slightly above that amount, so he may have some leverage to get that full amount. But hopefully he takes less (or just opts in).

What this does is pretty much illustrate how close to the 2nd apron any kind of balloon payment for KJ takes the team. If you trade him for anyone making $12M or who you would have to re-sign for over $12M after trading for him, they have immediately crossed into the 2nd apron by next season.

BTW - if you assume that they do is cross the 2nd apron, doesn't that mean they don't have access to any exceptions in Year 3 of this sheet?

Note that I did include a Tax MLE player for 2025-26. They could forgo that and have another few million in 2nd apron space if they really needed to.

I'm pretty confident they won't go over the 2nd apron except for a special player. I don't think they're going give Martin $12M+ on the off chance they can make a big swing like that.

[ckchen]

The KJ trade slot is line 14. Ideally, you find a guy under control for 3 years that fits into the 2nd apron space each year. I still think you need a bit of buffer, so $8-10M would be my target.

Seems unlikely the Bulls would trade Jalen Smith this year, but his contract would slot in perfectly. Slo Mo would be a more realistic possibility if the Warriors struggle.

Edit: also, this assumes Oubre get his full 175% via Early-Bird rights. The NTMLE will be slightly above that amount, so he may have some leverage to get that full amount. But hopefully he takes less (or just opts in).

What this does is pretty much illustrate how close to the 2nd apron any kind of balloon payment for KJ takes the team. If you trade him for anyone making $12M or who you would have to re-sign for over $12M after trading for him, they have immediately crossed into the 2nd apron by next season.

BTW - if you assume that they do is cross the 2nd apron, doesn't that mean they don't have access to any exceptions in Year 3 of this sheet?

Note that I did include a Tax MLE player for 2025-26. They could forgo that and have another couple million in 2nd apron space if they really needed to.

I'm pretty confident they won't go over the 2nd apron except for a special player. I don't think they're going give Martin $12M+ on the off chance they can make a big swing like that.

Right, by this sheet alone, trading KJ for even a mid-level player making $12M or more, or that you would need to re-sign for over $12M immediately kicks you over the 2nd apron in Year 2, so what would be the point? Almost every team is treating the 2nd apron as an effective hard cap because of the harsh penalties associated with it. Any savings under the 2nd apron from you would get from not having a MLE in Year 3 would almost assuredly be taken up by whatever contract that player you traded for either already has or that you would need to re-sign to. If nothing else, to me this just further supports that the team isn't very likely to do this balloon payment/trade at all, if the best player you can trade for is someone who makes or re-signs a contract for under $12M year the next two years.

Or like you suggest, at most maybe give him a balloon payment of around $8-10M a year, because whoever we trade him for can't really re-sign for much more than that and have the team stay under the 2nd apron.

[kriss73]

I can't believe Cade Cunningham is going to earn 20M more tha Maxey in the next 5 years.
NBA rule are very strange. And unfair

[Stanford]

I can't believe Cade Cunningham is going to earn 20M more tha Maxey in the next 5 years.
NBA rule are very strange. And unfair

Is this strictly because of draft position (prior year contract)?

[kriss73]

I can't believe Cade Cunningham is going to earn 20M more tha Maxey in the next 5 years.
NBA rule are very strange. And unfair

Is this strictly because of draft position (prior year contract)?

Honestly I dont'know....I was thinking about the Rose rule for Cunningham but I don't think he fits the criteria

[ckchen]

I can't believe Cade Cunningham is going to earn 20M more tha Maxey in the next 5 years.
NBA rule are very strange. And unfair

Is this strictly because of draft position (prior year contract)?

Honestly I dont'know....I was thinking about the Rose rule for Cunningham but I don't think he fits the criteria

The reason it sounds wrong, is because it is wrong. He will make about $20M LESS than Maxey in the next 5 years, because his extension doesn't kick in until next year, and he's only make about $13M this year.

The reason why his 5 year max extensions SOUNDS like it will be worth more because it's based of % of the cap, and his max doesn't START until next year, where the cap will be higher. So in the first year of his extension, he will make $38M vs. Maxey's first year $35M. This is the power of percentage increases. Since his first year max starting salary starts $3M higher because of the higher cap next year, over the life of the 5 years, he'll make $20M or whatever more. But the reality is by Cade's Year 5 where he'll be at $48M, Maxey might be in Year 1 of a 2nd Max contract that starts at $50+M.

[the_process]

I can't believe Cade Cunningham is going to earn 20M more tha Maxey in the next 5 years.
NBA rule are very strange. And unfair

Is this strictly because of draft position (prior year contract)?

It's because Cade's max extension starts next year, when 25% of the cap will be higher than it is this season when Maxey's max extension starts. Then it snowballs.

[NearingZero]

What this does is pretty much illustrate how close to the 2nd apron any kind of balloon payment for KJ takes the team. If you trade him for anyone making $12M or who you would have to re-sign for over $12M after trading for him, they have immediately crossed into the 2nd apron by next season.

BTW - if you assume that they do is cross the 2nd apron, doesn't that mean they don't have access to any exceptions in Year 3 of this sheet?

Note that I did include a Tax MLE player for 2025-26. They could forgo that and have another couple million in 2nd apron space if they really needed to.

I'm pretty confident they won't go over the 2nd apron except for a special player. I don't think they're going give Martin $12M+ on the off chance they can make a big swing like that.

Right, by this sheet alone, trading KJ for even a mid-level player making $12M or more, or that you would need to re-sign for over $12M immediately kicks you over the 2nd apron in Year 2, so what would be the point? Almost every team is treating the 2nd apron as an effective hard cap because of the harsh penalties associated with it. Any savings under the 2nd apron from you would get from not having a MLE in Year 3 would almost assuredly be taken up by whatever contract that player you traded for either already has or that you would need to re-sign to. If nothing else, to me this just further supports that the team isn't very likely to do this balloon payment/trade at all, if the best player you can trade for is someone who makes or re-signs a contract for under $12M year the next two years.

Or like you suggest, at most maybe give him a balloon payment of around $8-10M a year, because whoever we trade him for can't really re-sign for much more than that and have the team stay under the 2nd apron.

One other thing that I've been thinking for a while: whatever amount you decide on, you don't need to give it exclusively to Martin while you still have a 15th roster slot open. You can get another min guy, and when the time comes to make a trade, you can package Martin with whichever one or two min guys are most expendable (which could depend on who you acquire in trade).

So I could easily see a $6-8M contract for Martin, which could net a $10-12M contract back in a 3-for-1 trade.

[FireMorey]

Seems like a waiting game to see if some guys are willing to take the vet min at this point.

[kriss73]

I can't believe Cade Cunningham is going to earn 20M more tha Maxey in the next 5 years.
NBA rule are very strange. And unfair

Is this strictly because of draft position (prior year contract)?

It's because Cade's max extension starts next year, when 25% of the cap will be higher than it is this season when Maxey's max extension starts. Then it snowballs.

Oh mh bad, you all are right.


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[ckchen]

One other thing that I've been thinking for a while: whatever amount you decide on, you don't need to give it exclusively to Martin while you still have a 15th roster slot open. You can get another min guy, and when the time comes to make a trade, you can package Martin with whichever one or two min guys are most expendable (which could depend on who you acquire in trade).

So I could easily see a $6-8M contract for Martin, which could net a $10-12M contract back in a 3-for-1 trade.

I think there are some problems with this thinking - first the team has to be willing to make a 3 for 1 trade which would require them to likely waive at least 1 if not two of their own rostered players to accommodate this kind of a deal, since almost every team operates with 14-15 players.

Which is even more restricted if they presumably go over the 1st apron, can't be even a dollar more than exactly 110% the value outgoing.

Also, btw if they make the balloon payment and even just cross the 1st apron, that also takes them out of the buyout market for anyone making over $12.2M. So now that decision also needs to factor in whether or not how much they want to play in the higher salary player buyout market.

[Covi_Marsh]

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[jstross]

Any prognostications on when UFAs like Lowry and Marcus Morris will sign with someone?

[NearingZero]

One other thing that I've been thinking for a while: whatever amount you decide on, you don't need to give it exclusively to Martin while you still have a 15th roster slot open. You can get another min guy, and when the time comes to make a trade, you can package Martin with whichever one or two min guys are most expendable (which could depend on who you acquire in trade).

So I could easily see a $6-8M contract for Martin, which could net a $10-12M contract back in a 3-for-1 trade.

I think there are some problems with this thinking - first the team has to be willing to make a 3 for 1 trade which would require them to likely waive at least 1 if not two of their own rostered players to accommodate this kind of a deal, since almost every team operates with 14-15 players.

Which is even more restricted if they presumably go over the 1st apron, can't be even a dollar more than exactly 110% the value outgoing.

Also, btw if they make the balloon payment and even just cross the 1st apron, that also takes them out of the buyout market for anyone making over $12.2M. So now that decision also needs to factor in whether or not how much they want to play in the higher salary player buyout market.

I appreciate your position - I really do. But I don't think a 3-for-1 would be difficult to pull off, if needed. Maybe it costs an extra 2nd round pick to involve a 3rd team or something.

[ckchen]

One other thing that I've been thinking for a while: whatever amount you decide on, you don't need to give it exclusively to Martin while you still have a 15th roster slot open. You can get another min guy, and when the time comes to make a trade, you can package Martin with whichever one or two min guys are most expendable (which could depend on who you acquire in trade).

So I could easily see a $6-8M contract for Martin, which could net a $10-12M contract back in a 3-for-1 trade.

I think there are some problems with this thinking - first the team has to be willing to make a 3 for 1 trade which would require them to likely waive at least 1 if not two of their own rostered players to accommodate this kind of a deal, since almost every team operates with 14-15 players.

Which is even more restricted if they presumably go over the 1st apron, can't be even a dollar more than exactly 110% the value outgoing.

Also, btw if they make the balloon payment and even just cross the 1st apron, that also takes them out of the buyout market for anyone making over $12.2M. So now that decision also needs to factor in whether or not how much they want to play in the higher salary player buyout market.

I appreciate your position - I really do. But I don't think a 3-for-1 would be difficult to pull off, if needed. Maybe it costs an extra 2nd round pick to involve a 3rd team or something.

I think a 3 for 1 trade would be harder than you might think when the salaries are this low. If you just take a look at non-playoff teams from this past season with a player in the $8-12M range, most of their lowest cost players are recent draft picks, not vet minimums they're just willing to throw away to facilitate a deal because bad teams don't really sign a lot of these vet minimum guys. If you have to additionally compensate them for trading a younger player/draft pick to a third team, that makes those trades even less likely. Now you're trading KJ, a 1st round pick, plus additional 2nds for essentially a single player making $8-12M? I honestly think that's going to be a lot more difficult both to pull off, and to find even find players/teams within those parameters than you seem to think.

[M2J]

A *real* nerd wouldn't forget to include Eric Gordon's vet min. J/K bro good work. Throw KMart in there at $15m also while you're at it.

The KJ trade slot is line 14. Ideally, you find a guy under control for 3 years that fits into the 2nd apron space each year. I still think you need a bit of buffer, so $8-10M would be my target.

Seems unlikely the Bulls would trade Jalen Smith this year, but his contract would slot in perfectly. Slo Mo would be a more realistic possibility if the Warriors struggle.

Edit: also, this assumes Oubre get his full 175% via Early-Bird rights. The NTMLE will be slightly above that amount, so he may have some leverage to get that full amount. But hopefully he takes less (or just opts in).

What this does is pretty much illustrate how close to the 2nd apron any kind of balloon payment for KJ takes the team. If you trade him for anyone making $12M or who you would have to re-sign for over $12M after trading for him, they have immediately crossed into the 2nd apron by next season.

BTW - if you assume that they do is cross the 2nd apron, doesn't that mean they don't have access to any exceptions in Year 3 of this sheet?

Whether or not Oubre gets paid more, they still have wiggle room with the minimums. Again, you don't have to sign all vet minimum, rookie minimums for instance are about a 1/3 of the vet minimum