Starting this Saturday, June 29, Canada will play in another U17 World Cup tournament.
Below is the first part of my preview for this tournament, which includes some historical details on the championship and how the Canadian team has fared in it throughout the years, an analysis of the current competition and Canada’s rivals, and an overall look at the Canadian team, its strengths and its weaknesses.
CHAMPIONSHIP LOCATION, DRAWS, AND SCHEDULE
This year’s tournament will take place in Turkey, with 16 participants from around the world. Similar to previous championships, all teams will first play in four groups of four (3 games each) and then all 16 teams will face up in three elimination games, leading to the gold medal game (7 games all together over a timespan of 9 days).
Unlike two years ago, Canada’s group (Group D) seems quite reasonable, also including Germany, Australia, and Egypt. Canada will play Germany on June 29, Egypt on June 30, and Australia on July 2. In the next stage, Canada’s group will meet the teams from Group C (Italy, Turkey, Argentina, and New Zealand), with #1 from group D vs. #4 from Group C, #2 against #3, etc.
All games will be streamed on the championship website:
https://www.fiba.basketball/en/events/fiba-u17-basketball-world-cup-2024
Head coach Chris Cheng and his coaching staff (Jason Dawkins, Willy Manigat, and Peter Guarasci) are back after leading this team to the 2nd place in the U16 FIBA Americas Championship last summer.
HISTORY OF TEAM CANADA IN THE U17 WC
The U17 World Cup has been held biennially since 2010. It is now in its 7th iteration, after once having been canceled (in 2020, due to COVID). Unlike the U19 championship, in this age group the United States manages to still bring its best talents. It’s therefore not surprising that the Americans won gold in all 6 previous championships and have never lost a game (44 wins). In fact, the US only once did not win by double-figures (in the 2014 gold medal game against Australia) and typically they crush their opponents by 40 points or more.
Canada, despite its golden generation, has won only one medal so far, a bronze in the first iteration of this tournament, in 2010, with a strong team that included 15yo Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennet, Kevin Pangos, Dyshawn Pierre, Duane Notice, and Olivier Hanalan.
In 2012, Wiggins didn’t suit up despite being eligible, and a team led by Kevin Zabo, Marial Shayok, and 15yo Justin Jackson (who I swear looked at times like a young Magic Johnson) finished 5th, after losing to the US in the quarter finals.
In 2014, Jamal Murray was the undisputed star and played well. But he didn’t have any notable teammates and had little help on the way to a 6th place finish.
In 2016, we sent a strong team to the event, led by RJ Barrett, Andrew Nembhard, Simi Shittu, Iggy Brazdeikis, Danilo Djuricic, and Emmanuel Akot (as well as Noah Kirkwood, Quincy Guerrier, and Jaden Bediako). The year before, that same team played a very close gold medal game against the US in the U16 Fiba Americas, and it looked poised to give the Americans another real run for their money. But a disappointing upset against Turkey in the quarter finals cut those hopes short, on the way to an underwhelming 5th place finish. We did beat Australia, France, Finland and the DR by 30+ in that tournament, but that one loss to Turkey was enough, which goes to show how tricky these tournaments can be. At least Barrett was able to redeem himself a year later when he led the U19 team to gold at age 17.
In 2018, a team led by Addison Patterson, Cashius McNeilly, and Ben Krikke came quite close to winning our second medal of this event, but suffered a disappointing upset loss in the bronze medal game to Puerto Rico.
The cancelation of the 2020 championship due to COVID was a real shame, because that could have been another special team, featuring Shaedon Sharpe, Caleb Houstan, Ryan Nembhard, Leonard Miller, and Enoch Boakye.
Finally, two years ago, in 2022, we sent what was our weakest team to this event, with no NBA talents. That team was inferior in terms of both talent and athleticism, and it was blown away by European powerhouses France, Serbia, and Spain (three 20+ losses), leading to the first time we failed to reach the QF, finishing only in 9th place.
I’m hoping this year we’ll see a bounce back to the QF and from there who knows.
THE COMPETITION
Two years ago Canada was slotted into the “group of death” with European champions Serbia and a French Team that included this year’s top-2 NBA draft picks, Alex Sarr and Zacharie Risacher. This time around, however, the competition seems more manageable. Talent-wise, Canada should be the strongest team in Group D, with maybe Australia as a close second (thoguh I might be wrong and the Australians are actually stronger).
GROUP D
Germany. Of the six European teams in this championship, the German team was for me the least impressive during last year’s U16 championship (perhaps together with hosts Turkey). They were not very big and also didn’t have any outstanding talents. 6’8 combo forward Declan Duru is their highest profile player. I first watched him when he was a 14yo playing two years up with the German team. He was already at his current height and looked like a physical specimen and a future leaguer with a mature body, aggressiveness, and flying around for impressive dunks. But when I watched him again last year in the U16 European championship, he looked less impressive. The skill level didn’t develop as you would expect, there wasn’t much shooting to speak of, and I also wasn’t too impressed with his feel. I think he’s actually more of a PF, but still can dominate the boards (10rpg) and be a defensive presence (4spg). He reminds me a bit of Isaac Bonga, with the physical profile but also the questionable feel and skill.
Besides Duru, Germany’s two leading guards, Mathieu Grujicic (6’5) and Davi Remagen (6’2) were their best players last year. Grujicic is a good shooter and Remagen a nice athlete but neither of them stood out as top-level talents and no other player stood out to me. Actually, their most talented guy long term might be the 15yo PG Fabian Kayser, who’s quite skilled and creative, but still very young and I’m not sure how much impact he can have in this competition.
Egypt. The Pharaohs are not a traditional basketball powerhouse. They are regular participants in this event and played in all previous championships, but never finished better than 10th. They finished 2nd last year in the U16 African championship (lost to Guinea in the gold medal game). They had a pretty balanced team with 5 players scoring in double digits, but none of them scored more than 12ppg. They have some size with 6’10 center Omar Soudi and 6’9 PF Ali Assran, who between them had almost 20 rebounds per game last year and could give the relatively small and young Canadian front court some issues. But I expect Canada to have a clear and decisive advantage in the backcourt and from the bench, so I’d be surprised if this game remains close.
Australia. is the second-most decorated team in this competition, having won 2 silver medals (in 2012 and 2014). They also usually play a cohesive and tough brand of basketball, which has given Canada some trouble in the past. But most years, their talent level does not quite reach that of Canada. This year they bring a team that won the U16 Fiba Oceania last year with a close one over New Zealand and has a few interesting prospects.
Their best player is Dash Daniels, younger brother of the Pelicans’ Dyson Daniels, who looks like a promising talent in his own right. He’s currently listed as 6’5, but Dyson had a late growth spurt, so Dash might have one as well. Similar to his brother (at younger ages), he’s not a crazy scorer, but has an elegant and well-rounded offensive game, with three-level scoring and nice passing chops. He’s still a bit young (only 16.5yo), but could have his coming out party in this tournament. Next to Daniels, they also have a nice backcourt with a few good shooters, led by 6’6 Harrison Beauchamp[b], 6’5 [b]Nash Walker and 6’4 PG Rider Cheesman. Together, they’re a dangerous group, who I think should be pretty much on par with the Canadian backcourt.
The Aussies don’t have too much size, besides 7’1 center Sa Pilimai, who’s quite raw and I’m not sure will get too much playing time. So, if Oasruyi is able to play to his potential, this could be an advantage for Canada. Hopefully, we get to the game against them with two wins, as they seem like Canada’s main challenge for first place in this group (and avoiding the US in the QF).
THE OTHER GROUPS
Group C will cross with Canada’s group. It has a few decent teams but I think none of the top-3 teams in this competition.
Italy, the European silver medalists from the last year, is probably the strongest team in group C, led by tall guard/forward (6’8) Diego Garavaglia. The Italians are a balanced team with good size, athleticism, and nice perimeter shooting. It’s the strongest Italian team I can remember in quite a while at this age group, and I hope we can avoid them in the Round of 16. We already played the Italians in a scrimmage. They looked great in the first half and opened a 25-point lead, but Canada managed to chip away at the lead and tied the game on a Miles Sadler 3-point buzzer beater before losing in overtime.
Argentina was close to Canada’s level last year (we beat them after a pretty tight game in the semi-finals). They will bring three of their best players from this summer’s U18 Fiba Americas championship (where they won the silver medal, finishing before Canada): Felipe Minzer, Tyler Kropp, and Ivan Prato. All three were starters and Kropp and Minzer also led the U18 team in both scoring and in rebounding (far outpacing all of their teammates). Minzer is a nice 6’6 SF, with very good defensive instincts (3 steals per game), who’s already started playing pro basketball with the Spanish team Zaragoza. Kropp is their most productive player, an American who plays for the Albiceleste and should be one of the best players in this tournament. He’s a very crafty and mobile 6’8 PF, with fantastic footwork in the paint; a double-double machine who finished the U18 tournament last month with 22 points and 11 rebounds per game (these are also precisely his yearly high school averages). The Argentinians can certainly give the Canadians a hard time if we play them in the Round of 16, so hopefully we can also avoid them.
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Turkey, the hosts, are always dangerous, but I watched a few of their games last year and wasn’t overly impressed. They were led by their two nice guards -- 6’4 combo guard Derin Can Ustun (15 points and 5 assists) and 6’5 PG Kaan Onat (15 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists), but both did not impress in the shooting department (Onat actually finished the tournament shooting 1 of 29 from 3) and their big men also did not impress. I wouldn’t mind getting them in the round of 16.
Finally, New Zealand is a team I haven’t watched yet. They are usually a step behind in terms of talent, but they only lost by 3 to Australia in last year’s Fiba Oceania’s gold medal game, so they might be stronger this time around. Their best player in that game was 6’7 shooting guard Hayden Jones (31 points and 12 rebounds), but that was by far his best game of the tournament.
The other side of the draw (groups A and B) has arguably the best 3 or 4 teams in the competition.
The United States, as always, are a few levels above the competition, perhaps even more so this year. Their team from last year was one of the most talented I can remember at this age group, with impressive athletes and great talent. They crashed Canada in the gold medal game by 80 points, in a game that was quite embarrassing to watch. Last summer I especially liked guard Darryn Patterson, who he will not be participating this time around. But the Americans have a scary lineup of big bouncy forwards: AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer (Carlos’ son), Koa Peat, and Tyran Stokes are all clear NBA talents, who are likely to easily dominate any opponent with athleticism, physicality, and constant ball pressure. IF the guards also perform well, this could be one of their easier gold medals (not that it’s usually hard for them).
France are in the midst of a golden generation of their own. They will again bring a strong team with several potential NBA prospects. PG Akram Naji is a good playmaker, but when watching them last year, I was especially impressed with the two youngster forwards, 6’9 16yo Hugo Yimga and 6’8 15yo Nathan Suliman, who for me are the two best European prospects in the 2008 and 2009 cohorts. The French are the second most talented team in this competition but last year it didn’t help them get to the gold-medal game in the U16 European competition so we’ll see how they look like this year.
Spain, who won the U16 European championship last year, are also a very good team. They play great team basketball, move the ball well, and shoot extremely well. I was especially impressed with 6’4 PG Guillermo Del Pino (a very good shooter) and with Real Madrid’s athletic 6’6 SF Gildas Gimenez, who was great in the semi-finals against Lithuania. Canada played the Spaniards in a scrimmage last week and actually held pretty well, leading for most of the game (by a margin that reached 15 points) before surrendering to a late comeback and a buzzer beater by Spain.
Lithuania, as always, also have some strong talents. In particular, 6’6 combo-forward Dovydas Buika is a very versatile and smart player and 6’9 center Arturas Butajevas is a force under the rim with nice footwork, skill, and a good bounce.
One last team worth mentioning is Guinea, the Fiba Africa U16 champions, who’ll be playing at this event for the first time in their history. The reason for mentioning them is that they have two of the most interesting players in this competition. The first is 6’5 guard Nour Gassim Toure, who’s only 15.5yo but led them last year (at the age of 14) while averaging a near-triple-double of 20ppg, 8rpg, and 8apg. The other is 7’1 center Araphan Diane, who plays his high school basketball in Montreal and is a physical specimen with some real talent (17 points and 17 rebounds per game in last year’s African championship). Canada could have sure used someone like him in the paint.
The US, France, and Spain are probably my three personal favorites for a medal.
TEAM CANADA
The 2007 Canadian cohort is not one of our strongest in recent years. We got to see a few players from this Canadian team last year at the U16 FIBA Americas and that team did not overly impress. We somehow still managed to win the silver medal with a few tight wins over our South American rivals. But we got destroyed in the gold medal game by the US by 80 points in an embarrassing fashion. Beyond the gaps in the talent pool vs. the US, a few questionable roster decisions meant that last year’s team was really lacking in size, talent, shooting (25% from 3 and 50% from the line), and creation.
Luckily, you get a chance to retool, and the team this year includes a few notable improvements, with only five of the players from last year still on the roster (though two of our best players from last year are out due to injury, which is a shame). I’m actually quite happy with the adjustments made. First, the obvious one was bringing in a point guard in Miles Sadler, the best 2007-born Canadian guard, who for some reason was left out last year. In addition, we added a few nice talents to the backcourt, such as TJ Wal, Amari Upshaw, Mahliq Guiseppi-Kitson, and Kole Grandison. With that, the backcourt is now much more balanced and has some size, athleticism, and a scoring punch that were all desperately missing last year.
The frontcourt remains weaker for this team, mainly because there’s a serious dearth of big man talent in the 2007 Canadian cohort. We were therefore forced to bring four front court players who are all 16.5yo or younger (three of them from the 2008 cohort). I still think this is better than trying to force in older players who lack talent, but it’s clearly a weakness. This means that we’ll probably be playing smaller when games are on the line, with PF Paul Osaruyi at center (he’ll have to stay out of foul trouble) and one of Stefan Ilic or Patrick Anamali (if you want to go even smaller) next to him. I actually don’t mind this, but both Osaruyi and Ilic are 2008 guys and it often shows.
Beyond the lack of big bodies with real size and experience, shooting might also be a weaker point for this team (and that wouldn’t be the first time for a Canadian youth team). I actually think there’s a decent number of guys on this roster who can shoot at least reasonably, including Ethier, Sadler, Wal, Charles, and potentially also Grandison, Upshaw, and Guiseppi-Kitson. But Wal appears to be out of the rotation, Charles (and to an extent also Upshaw) can’t really get clean looks at this level due to size limitations, and the wings can shoot but are somewhat hesitant 3-point shooters, who much prefer to drive to the rim (Guiseppi-Kitson) or shoot mid-rangers (Grandison). That leaves us with Ethier as our lone willing and capable 3-point threat. Sadler is a good shooter as well, but he also usually prefers to drive and didn’t shoot it well in the 3 scrimmages.
As for the other half of the roster, which is basically the entire front-court rotation, most of them can’t shoot at all (maybe with the exception of Osaruyi a little). Which means that at any given point, there are at least two players on the court who can’t shoot, and often one or two others who are hesitant shooters. And that really hurts spacing. The team moves the ball nicely around the perimeter (or Sadler penetrates and finds an open man), but then that open player doesn’t take the shot or hesitates for too long, and the advantage is lost.
These two issues (the lack of mature experienced bigs and the tentative perimeter shooting) really showed during Canada’s three practice games, against Italy, Puerto Rico, and Spain. Canada lost all three of these games, though they were all tight at the end (2-point, 3-point, and OT losses). All three rival teams shot the ball much better than Canada, and all had somewhat of an edge in the paint, mainly in terms of offensive rebounding and bigs with a big body and skill around the rim. But the dynamics of these games were also quite different. In the first two games, against Italy and Puerto Rico, Canada got into 20-point deficits in the first half and then had to claw its way back into the games. The fact that the boys didn’t break and were able to do it both times is quite encouraging (and bodes well for keeping the faith during tournament). But the lack of cohesion (again, it's almost an entirely new team) and FIBA experience, together with the aforementioned weaknesses of this roster, were quite evident, especially on the offensive end.
The game against Spain looked much better, with Canada able to open a 15-point lead, and the Spaniards were the ones to rally from behind in the fourth quarter. All in all, despite the three losses (two of them against the European gold and silver medalists), I was not discouraged by what I saw and expect us to look better in the tournament (where I also expect experimentations by the coaches to subside and the rotation to stabalize).
THE CANADIAN ROSTER
GUARDS:
Miles Sadler | 17yo PG, 5'11, 165lbs | Brampton, ON
Jordan Charles | 16.9yo PG, 6'0, 155lbs | Scarborough, ON
Amari Upshaw | 16.4yo CG, 6'4, 170lbs | Halifax, NS
Quinten Ethier | 17.5yo SG, 6'4, 185lbs | St. Catharines, ON
Tutjiek (TJ) Wal | 17.4yo CG, 6'6, 190lbs | Edmonton, AB
WINGS:
Kole Grandison | 17.4yo SF, 6'6, 205lbs | Montclair, NJ
Mahliq Guiseppi-Kitson | 17.2yo SF, 6'6, 170lbs | Scarborough, ON
Patrick Anamali | 17.4yo PF, 6'8, 190lbs | Calgary, AB
BIGS:
Paul Osaruyi | 16.3yo PF, 6'10, 200lbs | Scarborough, ON
Stefan Ilic | 15.7yo PF, 6'9, 180lbs | Kitchener, ON
Maxime Meyer | 16.4yo C, 7'0, 210lbs | Toronto, ON
Tristan-James (TJ) St. Louis | 16.5yo C, 7’0, 230lbs | Brampton, ON
NOTABLE OMISSIONS
As always, there are a few notable omissions – players I would have liked to see with the team. These include two of the best players from last year’s competition, who are unfortunately injured. The first is 6’2 PG Kamai Samuels, who was by far our best creator in the U16 tournament. Samuels is an athletic PG, with a great first step, who can really get to the paint and finish creatively around the rim. He led the team and the tournament in assists last year (5.5 per game), adding 8 rebound per game. His shooting is quite questionable, but he’ll certainly be missed. The second guy is 6’8 youngster (not yet 16yo) Godson Okokoh, an athletic PF who flashed nice talent and some surprising perimeter shooting. Okokoh is a very good shot-blocker and plays with a nice motor. He’s still raw offensively, but will certainly be missed given our lack of size and elite-level athleticism in the front court.
Beyond these two, I would have also liked to see a bit more shooting and creation on this team. Two guards who I think could have been helpful are 6’3 SG Rokiem Green, who was on training camp but did not make the final roster, and Quebec’s 6’3 SG Promis Nlandu, who’s a player I quite like and certainly one of the best shooters in the 2007 cohort, but wasn’t one of the 23 players invited to training camp. Perhaps I’d even give a chance to 6’6 Kian Tyson from Saskatchewan or 6’4 Logan Stewart from BC, who are also very good shooters, though I’m not sure they would bring much creation or extra defensive value at this level.
Overall, I do like the team assembled here and I think they have a pretty good chance to get back to the QF. Beyond that, we’ll have to wait and see.
I’ll dive deeper into the Canadian roster in Part 2 of this preview, tomorrow
