Zatzman: Breaking Down Raptors Lineups

WuTang_CMB · Post #1 » by **WuTang_CMB** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:08 pm

The Starters: Immanuel Quickley — Gradey Dick — RJ Barrett — Scottie Barnes — Jakob Poeltl (2023-24 net rating plus-120)

Props to Samson, who was the first person I saw discuss Gradey as the possible starting shooting guard this upcoming season. Now it’s all the rage. So let’s get on the record buying in.

Obviously, the net rating is meaningless. A grand total of four minutes. Ignore it. But this group played 230 minutes without Dick, the closest thing we have to data on the presumptive starters, and enjoyed a very impressive net rating of plus-9.3. (Which is right around the 80th percentile mark for four-man groupings with at least 200 minutes together.) So there’s some evidence that this could work.

But could it work with Dick? He had one of the lowest on/off net ratings on the team last year, ahead of only Jalen McDaniels, Javon Freeman-Liberty, Garrett Temple, and Malik Williams. And even if you isolate for the back half of the season, when Dick started playing again in late January, the Raptors were still significantly better with him on the bench than on the court. But! If you isolate just from late January to late February, before the team fell off its hinges, Dick’s on/offs were about neutral. The Raptors played some solid ball, for a solid stretch, with Dick playing a solid role. That’s meaningful. And just by virtue of him getting older, he’ll likely put on a touch more weight for next season, which should matter on both ends.

The best fifth player alongside Quickley, Barrett, Barnes, and Poeltl last season was Gary Trent jr., and he ate up more than half of those minutes. Toronto still won its minutes with Pascal Siakam or Dennis Schroder alongside the core four, though not to the same extent. Take that to mean a low-usage shooter is the best complementary starter.

Dick does that! Rookie Dick may not have been as helpful a player as sixth-year Trent, but I imagine that Sophomore Dick will narrow the gap. He’s a better movement shooter, with the potential for a higher volume of triples, and on lower usage. He has more craft inside the arc as a passer and finisher, even if he doesn’t always know what is going on around him yet. The outline of what Dick can become fits much better alongside Toronto’s best four than any other player on the Raptors. And asking Dick to be that type of player, early on in his career, should help him grow into himself.

Perhaps he doesn’t become that player this season, and his minutes drag down the ability of the starters to win minutes. (I imagine the Raptors would be fine with that.) Or maybe having Barnes and Poeltl on the back end of the defense insulates Dick somewhat on that end, and his shooting pushes the offense to another level. It is in Toronto’s best interest to find out. I think the starting job is Dick’s to lose.

Post #2 » by **Duffman100** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:11 pm

How many seasons in a row are we going to have a positive starting lineup with a bench that tanks us as soon as they come in?

Maybe this year is the year! Davion, Ochai, Brown, KO, Walters, Mogbo, Shead, Boucher... cmon guys.

WuTang_CMB · Post #3 » by **WuTang_CMB** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:27 pm

Duffman100 wrote:How many seasons in a row are we going to have a positive starting lineup with a bench that tanks us as soon as they come in?

Maybe this year is the year! Davion, Ochai, Brown, KO, Walters, Mogbo, Shead, Boucher... cmon guys.

This will be another one of those years lol

Post #4 » by **Duffman100** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:29 pm

WuTang_OG wrote:
Duffman100 wrote:How many seasons in a row are we going to have a positive starting lineup with a bench that tanks us as soon as they come in?

Maybe this year is the year! Davion, Ochai, Brown, KO, Walters, Mogbo, Shead, Boucher... cmon guys.

This will be another one of those years lol

I know. But every year I get my hopes up. I have to keep this annual tradition. :lol:

Godaddycurse · Post #5 » by **Godaddycurse** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:31 pm

i hate the idea of Dick in the starting lineup because it will most likely mean putting Barnes on the PoA on D

ash_k · Post #6 » by **ash_k** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:33 pm

Duffman100 wrote:How many seasons in a row are we going to have a positive starting lineup with a bench that tanks us as soon as they come in?

Maybe this year is the year! Davion, Ochai, Brown, KO, Walters, Mogbo, Shead, Boucher... cmon guys.

and that bench looks very solid if maximized. If Ochai can resurrect his spot up 3 as the starting 3+D then Gradey off the bench with Brown, KO and Boucher..Davion running the point . It looks good with the BIG4.
It is on the Coach

Post #7 » by **Cyrus** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:44 pm

Duffman100 wrote:How many seasons in a row are we going to have a positive starting lineup with a bench that tanks us as soon as they come in?

Maybe this year is the year! Davion, Ochai, Brown, KO, Walters, Mogbo, Shead, Boucher... cmon guys.

LOL that's rough bench!

MiamiSPX · Post #8 » by **MiamiSPX** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:50 pm

WuTang_OG wrote:
Duffman100 wrote:How many seasons in a row are we going to have a positive starting lineup with a bench that tanks us as soon as they come in?

Maybe this year is the year! Davion, Ochai, Brown, KO, Walters, Mogbo, Shead, Boucher... cmon guys.

This will be another one of those years lol

I'm going to start this year's "We are DEEP" thread.

Brinbe · Post #9 » by **Brinbe** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:51 pm

Is Gradey better served being a featured scorer off the bench against opposition more at his level or as a 5th option with the starters while being a clear negative/bullseye on defense?

I think Bruce is the more logical option as the 5th guy if they eventually buy out Vez. And if not, then it's Vez.

RJ isn't a good SF and anyone ignoring that isn't worth listening to. He's a big bullying SG like DeMar was, but with a 3 ball.

Post #10 » by **Duffman100** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 1:55 pm

Brinbe wrote:Is Gradey better served being a featured scorer off the bench against opposition more at his level or as a 5th option with the starters while being a clear negative/bullseye on defense?

I think Bruce is the more logical option as the 5th guy if they eventually buy out Vez. And if not, then it's Vez.

RJ isn't a good SF and anyone ignoring that isn't worth listening to. He's a big SG.

Honestly Brown isn't as bad as everyone says he is. He has more value than he showed in his short stint here. I would start him and hopefully get the buy in from him.

Brinbe · Post #11 » by **Brinbe** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:01 pm

Duffman100 wrote:
Brinbe wrote:Is Gradey better served being a featured scorer off the bench against opposition more at his level or as a 5th option with the starters while being a clear negative/bullseye on defense?

I think Bruce is the more logical option as the 5th guy if they eventually buy out Vez. And if not, then it's Vez.

RJ isn't a good SF and anyone ignoring that isn't worth listening to. He's a big SG.

Honestly Brown isn't as bad as everyone says he is. He has more value than he showed in his short stint here. I would start him and hopefully get the buy in from him.

I'm sure he'll give a better effort now that there's some more familiarity with things and he's not immediately in with the mindset that he's one foot the door like it was last season.

We know he's there with the team right now

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NinjaBro · Post #12 » by **NinjaBro** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:14 pm

Duffman100 wrote:How many seasons in a row are we going to have a positive starting lineup with a bench that tanks us as soon as they come in?

Maybe this year is the year! Davion, Ochai, Brown, KO, Walters, Mogbo, Shead, Boucher... cmon guys.

That looks terrible

We need to trade Siakam for AJ Griffin before it's too late! - PhilBlackson

JB7 · Post #13 » by **JB7** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:15 pm

I still think they are waiting on a Wiggins deal, for Brown's salary. Wiggins slots in perfectly into the SL, leaving a bench of KO, Dick, OA, and Davion, with Walter and Mogbo as the next tier of options off the bench.

Ducksplatt · Post #14 » by **Ducksplatt** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:16 pm

Brinbe wrote:Is Gradey better served being a featured scorer off the bench against opposition more at his level or as a 5th option with the starters while being a clear negative/bullseye on defense?

I think Bruce is the more logical option as the 5th guy if they eventually buy out Vez. And if not, then it's Vez.

RJ isn't a good SF and anyone ignoring that isn't worth listening to. He's a big bullying SG like DeMar was, but with a 3 ball.

I couldn’t agree more with RJ better as a 2. That is where he should be playing (Billy ball is bang on). He has a lot of size advantage and rather see Dick come off the bench for offense in year 2 until he grabs it away from RJ

I still believe Taos have a huge hole at SF.

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alpngso · Post #15 » by **alpngso** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:16 pm

Quick-Gradey-RJ lineup of 1 thru 3 is definitely in bottom 5 denfensive lineup. maybe even bottom 3

Scase · Post #16 » by **Scase** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:18 pm

Duffman100 wrote:
Brinbe wrote:Is Gradey better served being a featured scorer off the bench against opposition more at his level or as a 5th option with the starters while being a clear negative/bullseye on defense?

I think Bruce is the more logical option as the 5th guy if they eventually buy out Vez. And if not, then it's Vez.

RJ isn't a good SF and anyone ignoring that isn't worth listening to. He's a big SG.

Honestly Brown isn't as bad as everyone says he is. He has more value than he showed in his short stint here. I would start him and hopefully get the buy in from him.

He really is though.

He's not a useless player by any stretch, but he isn't someone you rely on with a team like this. He's managed at or around his career numbers with us or IND last year, and really any year he hasn't played with a HOF player on the team, he's been meh. He isn't Jalen McDaniels, but he also isn't a player we should expect anything substantial from.

Post #17 » by **niQ** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:30 pm

Props to Samson, who was the first person I saw discuss Gradey as the possible starting shooting guard this upcoming season.

What? I'm pretty sure most people have wanted Dick to start this upcoming season...

TorontoRapsFan · Post #18 » by **TorontoRapsFan** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:33 pm

Duffman100 wrote:
Brinbe wrote:Is Gradey better served being a featured scorer off the bench against opposition more at his level or as a 5th option with the starters while being a clear negative/bullseye on defense?

I think Bruce is the more logical option as the 5th guy if they eventually buy out Vez. And if not, then it's Vez.

RJ isn't a good SF and anyone ignoring that isn't worth listening to. He's a big SG.

Honestly Brown isn't as bad as everyone says he is. He has more value than he showed in his short stint here. I would start him and hopefully get the buy in from him.

And having Gradey coming off the bench as a scorer is going to benefit him in his development. As a starter too much of his time will be in a supporting role.

Asif16 · Post #19 » by **Asif16** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:36 pm

Bruce Brown is great guy. Hate the contract all you want but he's been nothing but positive since being traded to a basement dweller rebuilding team.

Contract aside, he's still one of the better role player out there and he will only help our young guys grow and learn this upcoming season (Dick, Ochai and Jakobe)

TheGeneral99 · Post #20 » by **TheGeneral99** » Fri Jul 12, 2024 2:37 pm

Duffman100 wrote:How many seasons in a row are we going to have a positive starting lineup with a bench that tanks us as soon as they come in?

Maybe this year is the year! Davion, Ochai, Brown, KO, Walters, Mogbo, Shead, Boucher... cmon guys.

Yes, this has been the primary issue the last three seasons.

Raptors had the 29th and 30th bench productions scoring wise since 2022.