A classic performance from an all-time poster! Hey 70sFan
Great stuff as always.
Shot ChartDo you know if the average shot distance or if the balance of left block/side vs right block/side has changed since you last posted it? No worries if it’s not easy to calculate! You definitely lose some complexity in simplifying from the full shot chart to one number (or a pair of coordinates here), but it also allows for easier high-level comparison
Getting more in the weeds:
Shot Distance: Moses and Wilt continue to have a lower average shot distance than Kareem.
1. At the basket: In a neat coincidence, Wilt and Moses both shoot 45% of sampled shots within 3 feet, while Kareem shoots much less often (22%). Wilt and Kareem both shoot the same 77% FG, while Moses shoots lower at 65% FG.
-Given Wilt’s large volume and efficiency (and how much lower his efficiency is from 3–10 FT at 44% FG), it seems like his rim scoring is driving his high league-relative efficiency. As expected (although we'll see he has a variety of ways he attacks the rim below).
-Kareem’s volume, meanwhile, is surprisingly low. I wonder what this means from a scalability / offensive spacing perspective. People like comparing the offenses of Kareem and Shaq. Of course, Kareem provides more spacing in the lane, while Shaq provides more rim gravity. But how much are these from the players themselves and how do we compare across era? Could this be used to support the idea that Kareem had less rim gravity (especially relative to the pre-3 point era when shots at the rim were prioritized that much more), or is this more of a case where Kareem just has ‘midrange gravity’? If so, how would the spacing affects midrange gravity be different from more typical rim gravity?
-As I recall, Moses had a reputation for getting offensive rebounds after his own misses and corralling them into the basket (a la Zion today). If we treat these as single attempts (a la Thinking Basketball’s suggestion), this would lower his volume but give him higher efficiency. Not sure how often this is the case though.
2. Further out: Moses and Kareem have more than Wilt. As expected, even just from their era.
-Wilt: actually shoots an equal amount from 3-10 feet as he does at the rim. Presumably this is driven by his fadeaway and finger rolls. He’s shockingly efficient in the far midrange, 10-16 feet, at 55% FG! Maybe this is boosted by small sample noise (42 shots) or being relatively open on these shots, given how much this wasn’t his game?
-Kareem: shoots notably more of his shots from the short midrange, 3-10 feet, than at the rim (60% of his attempts vs 22%!). He also shot these at great efficiency, 50% FG. The skyhook is real. After that, 18% of attempts beyond 10 feet, at 39% FG. Good range adjusted for position and era, but he’s clearly more comfortable in 3-10 feet given the efficiency.
-Moses: has the least volume and efficiency from the short midrange, but takes the most shots of the three from beyond 10 feet at 20%. Is this era differences showing up, as the midrange of centers expands? In the shot chart, there’s a clump of misses at x=15, y=7ish. Not a single make from that region. Presumably he’s able to make shots from that distance (he made two on the left side), but there’s a pretty clear drop off from that distance on the sides. Were those late shot clock attempts, well defended, random unlucky misses, or did they provide good spacing for teammates? If not, maybe he could have optimized his shot selection more there, either by passing out of them, or pushing for better position closer to the basket / more central. Or perhaps a Duncan style bank shot might be optimal if you have to shoot from that area?
Shot type:
Sorry for the basic question, but what are the numbers in the second pie chart? They don’t add up to 100%.
Wilt: He scores almost entirely from four play types: post up, offensive rebounding, deep catches and cuts, and transition.
-Post ups: the largest part of his offensive repertoire, and far more self-generated than the other forms. 51% TS isn’t the worst given the era, but could be better. I wonder if you looked at Wilt’s volume/efficiency by shot type (e.g. finger roll, fadeaway, other), was one shooting form more efficient than the other?
-Offensive rebounding: greater volume and efficiency than either Kareem or more impressively Moses. It’s over 1/4 of his play types, and he scores at 64.4% TS (Moses 59.2% TS). It’s a different era and there were more rebounds available, which might mitigate the volume advantage, but that efficiency is crazy good, especially pre-three point line. Is Wilt the greatest offensive rebounder ever? He certainly has the volume / efficiency argument. I suppose the argument against would be that he prioritized rebounding, perhaps too much, or at least enough to conflict with coaches and disrupt chemistry with Baylor in 1969. Maybe Moses had less volume/efficiency, but was more within the flow of the offense?
-Deep catches and cuts. Smaller volume than the first two, so this is a supplemental form of scoring. But 74% TS is bonkers! Presumably this is much more deep catches than cuts. Wilt had some moments as an off-ball player, but he never moved off ball quite as actively as Shaq. I always thought his offense might do better if he focused more on getting deep positioning without the ball (and perhaps cut a few of the more isolation post game possessions). You had to be more careful about offensive fouls back then, but Wilt had a massive reach to catch entry passes. This sort of rim attack via rebounding or deep catches were when he was at his most efficient scoring. Plus going off ball would allow his teammates to get more involved in setting him up, would give him passing opportunities if he collapsed the defense more (both good for scalability), and limit one of Wilt’s weaknesses (his handle).
-transition: Wilt gets the rest of his offense from transition, where he scores 78.9% TS! It’s somewhat comical to watch a guy of Wilt’s size have such acceleration in a straight line, but it really pops off the screen in the film, at least in his younger years. Presumably his transition attempt went down in 71–73.
Kareem:
-post game: Kareem has basically 2/3 of his scoring attempts from his post game, at 57% TS. That’s massive volume. Does he have the greatest post game ever? Not sure who could even challenge it besides Shaq or Jokic. Like with Wilt, it would be interesting to see the breakdown of volume/efficiency by shot type: how much is this just the skyhook, vs other shot forms?
-Other play types: Kareem’s scoring was much more often his first option (post game) than Wilt, but he also has slightly more of a 5th+ scoring option. He tried a tiny bit of Pick and Roll, driving, catch and shoot. I wonder, how much did these play types change for Kareem with Oscar vs with Magic (not in the time frame here) vs with neither? Did he shift more to scalable, finishing plays like offensive rebounding or deep catches or pick and roll, did his post game shift to be more assisted, or did the play types stay fairly constant?
Moses:
-Like others, he gets most of his volume from post game (~45% at 52% TS), followed by offensive rebounding (~20%, at 59% TS). Like Wilt, his next two major categories are Deep Catches/Cuts and Transition game, but like Kareem he has a little diversity after his first 4 options (mostly ISO midrange and Driving). It’s nice (scoring) versatility past the first 4 options.
Since his best weapon is usually considered his offensive rebounding, I’m wondering: have you 70sFan (or others) noticed any difference in their positioning or movement leading up to offensive rebounds for Moses vs Wilt? Do they have different side or distance preferences, or start fighting for position at different times in the play, etc.?
