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2025 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread - Andrew Fischer - FRP

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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1061 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 1:31 pm

Matches Malone wrote:Wilken and Burke could be a nice power hitting corner infield duo in coming years.


Hoskins has an opt out after this season and I hope for some reason he takes it. Things would get a little more simplified.

1B: Black
2B: Ortiz
3B: Wilken
SS: Turang

Wes Clark, Monasterio, and Miller backing them up.

But the logjam is going to be a real thing soon. Boeve is knocking on the door. Pratt looks like he could be on the fast track. Luke Adams looks like a legit prospect. There are some studs in the lowest levels.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1062 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 1:39 pm

Fangraphs recap of Day 1.

I think it’s safe to say that Milwaukee had other plans that were dashed by who went in front of them, most likely the college bats taken in the 10-14 range. I don’t know why they didn’t think enough of Carson Benge to take him when their old boss’ org did. Braylon Payne is one of the youngest and fastest players in the draft, but he needs a ton of swing work. He’s definitely under slot, the question is by how much. After taking Tennessee slugger Blake Burke, Milwaukee picked up two prep arms from New Jersey who are likely to come in a little over slot, but let’s not assume the Brewers are done. Remember, they gave over-slot bonuses of varying amounts to seven high schoolers last year, and they could have saved enough pool space with the Payne pick to get more than just the two high school pitchers they already have.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1063 » by MickeyDavis » Mon Jul 15, 2024 3:55 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
Matches Malone wrote:Wilken and Burke could be a nice power hitting corner infield duo in coming years.


Hoskins has an opt out after this season and I hope for some reason he takes it. Things would get a little more simplified.

1B: Black
2B: Ortiz
3B: Wilken
SS: Turang

Wes Clark, Monasterio, and Miller backing them up.

But the logjam is going to be a real thing soon. Boeve is knocking on the door. Pratt looks like he could be on the fast track. Luke Adams looks like a legit prospect. There are some studs in the lowest levels.


Hoskins has a mutual option.
I'm against picketing but I don't know how to show it.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1064 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 3:56 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
Matches Malone wrote:Wilken and Burke could be a nice power hitting corner infield duo in coming years.


Hoskins has an opt out after this season and I hope for some reason he takes it. Things would get a little more simplified.

1B: Black
2B: Ortiz
3B: Wilken
SS: Turang

Wes Clark, Monasterio, and Miller backing them up.

But the logjam is going to be a real thing soon. Boeve is knocking on the door. Pratt looks like he could be on the fast track. Luke Adams looks like a legit prospect. There are some studs in the lowest levels.


Hoskins has a mutual option.


For '26. Player option for '25.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1065 » by MickeyDavis » Mon Jul 15, 2024 3:59 pm

Aw crap. $18 million next year. Untradeable. Mark isn't eating that much.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1066 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon Jul 15, 2024 4:11 pm

It's probably fine. I mean, look at Winker. Sometimes it's gonna take a guy 1-2 years to recover from a massive injury.

It's also true that somebody like Wilken or Boeve is not going to be better (right away) than a modest/disappointing season from Rhys Hoskins (~.700 OPS). I need to adjust my calibration of young players in the new no-shift/speed-based game again, because I was wrong about Turang not having the necessary power to thrive, but Black's another guy that could fall short there.

If Hoskins finishes like this, I'd imagine he takes the $18 million next year. If he finishes slightly stronger, still unlikely, but there's a chance he bolts to try to secure a 3 year/$45 million deal or something.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1067 » by Thunder Muscle » Mon Jul 15, 2024 5:03 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
Matches Malone wrote:Wilken and Burke could be a nice power hitting corner infield duo in coming years.


Hoskins has an opt out after this season and I hope for some reason he takes it. Things would get a little more simplified.

1B: Black
2B: Ortiz
3B: Wilken
SS: Turang

Wes Clark, Monasterio, and Miller backing them up.

But the logjam is going to be a real thing soon. Boeve is knocking on the door. Pratt looks like he could be on the fast track. Luke Adams looks like a legit prospect. There are some studs in the lowest levels.


Maybe he goes on a tear, but at this point can’t see Hoskins turning down 18M/year. Seems like a good dude and going to find his way to 30 HRs, but agree going to need to get a guy like Black consistent at bat’s. As of today I would be fine if he opts out.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1068 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon Jul 15, 2024 5:15 pm

It would be an incredible problem to have that whichever combo of 2-3 young corner guys might be ready all .700+ OPS guys at age 23 or whatever. If Hoskins is still fighting to stay over that mark, I'd eat $9 million in the 2nd half of the season next year and ship him away for a bag of baseballs and/or partially/fully cover his salary if Black and Wilken are relegating him to bench duty.

At one point we all thought Mitchell/Wiemer/Frelick (plus Chourio and briefly throw in Ruiz) would cause too much of a logjam in the OF and while there are some excellent defenders in that grouping, we'll be lucky if any of those guys click as true MLB mainstays until their 2nd/3rd/4th year in the league.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1069 » by Thunder Muscle » Mon Jul 15, 2024 5:25 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:It would be an incredible problem to have that whichever combo of 2-3 young corner guys might be ready all .700+ OPS guys at age 23 or whatever. If Hoskins is still fighting to stay over that mark, I'd eat $9 million in the 2nd half of the season next year and ship him away for a bag of baseballs and/or partially/fully cover his salary if Black and Wilken are relegating him to bench duty.

At one point we all thought Mitchell/Wiemer/Frelick (plus Chourio and briefly throw in Ruiz) would cause too much of a logjam in the OF and while there are some excellent defenders in that grouping, we'll be lucky if any of those guys click as true MLB mainstays until their 2nd/3rd/4th year in the league.


Agreed on OF. Kind of feel those guys tracking to be reserve OF’s. And have definitely lost top value for trading. Wiemer would be pennies on the dollar, but likely will be moved at some point I feel. Mitchell has had way too many injuries. Frelick is the one that maybe could s get something but has had some red flags this year and lost a little hype. But overall point is the guys having success in minors is still a crapshoot once in the bigs. I was high on all of the above, much like I am with Wilken, Black, etc. but who really knows…
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1070 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 6:30 pm

Jaron DeBerry - RHP

DeBerry pitched two seasons in junior college before moving to DBU in 2023 where he posted a 5.71 ERA as a primary reliever and went undrafted. His 2024 season was better and he moved into a full-time starting role where he posted a 3.61 ERA over 13 starts and 72.1 innings with a 25.2% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. DeBerry is rail thin with a 6-foot-3, 178-pound frame that might suggest physical projection but could as likely be the sort of build that is just always tough to add mass and strength to. He has a breaking ball heavy pitch mix and throws a low-80s slider as much as his fastball, and goes to a slower curveball variant more than 20% of the time as well. He gets great spin rates on both pitches and backs them up with a fastball that sits 90, touches 94 and has above-average cutting movement. DeBerry will also mix in a mid-80s changeup but it’s a distant fourth pitch. His above-average spin traits could make him a day three target as a likely reliever and senior sign.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1071 » by LUKE23 » Mon Jul 15, 2024 6:38 pm

Do we know if we have to pay Payne $3.4M due to the new physical rule?

DeBerry seems like he could be underslot as he's a college senior without other options. Hoping they keep going for the HS lottery tickets in future rounds.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1072 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 6:47 pm

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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1073 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 6:49 pm

LUKE23 wrote:Do we know if we have to pay Payne $3.4M due to the new physical rule?

DeBerry seems like he could be underslot as he's a college senior without other options. Hoping they keep going for the HS lottery tickets in future rounds.


I've read about that but I haven't seen anything official yet. If that's the case I would assume the Brewers had knowledge that other teams were on him in the first round and they really thought they needed to take him.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1074 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 6:51 pm

Marco Dinges - C

Can't find anything on him.

Had a .998 OPS this season with 15 home runs.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1075 » by Turk Nowitzki » Mon Jul 15, 2024 6:54 pm

Seems like a bat first guy. His highlight clips are him flashing natural power to all fields and has a nice opposite field approach. Seems like some questions with being able to handle off speed stuff and a major project at C, may not stick there.

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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1076 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 7:18 pm

John Holobetz - RHP - Old Dominion

Another guy without a scouting report on MLB, Fangraphs, or BA.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1077 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 7:21 pm

This is basically the bizarro version of last year's draft.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1078 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 7:41 pm

Chandler Welch - RHP - Tulane

Another dude on no one's list.
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1079 » by Turk Nowitzki » Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:05 pm

Yeah I'm not sure what they're up to unless they really think they need all this money to sign the two 2nd round prep guys?
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Re: 2024 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread 

Post#1080 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:21 pm

Turk Nowitzki wrote:Yeah I'm not sure what they're up to unless they really think they need all this money to sign the two 2nd round prep guys?


At this point I'm assuming they're going to go hard after players with college commitments in rounds 11-20. If a player taken in rounds 1-10 doesn't sign, that bonus allotment is removed from the team's total.

However, that penalty doesn't apply to picks in the 11th round on. Even though the slot for each pick is is up to $150,000, they can use all that money saved in 1-10 and throw it at high school kids. If those kids don't sign, there's no penalty.

Some guys just last year taken after the 10th round and the money it took:

11 (332): Bishop Letson, RHP, Floyd Central High (IN)
Signing bonus: $482,600

12 (362): Bjorn Johnson, LHP, Lincoln High (WA)
Signing bonus: $420,500

14 (422): Hayden Robinson, RHP, Berwick High (LA)
Signing bonus: $347,500

15 (452): Josh Adamczewski, SS, Lake Central High (IN)
Signing bonus: $252,500

20 (602): Justin Chambers, LHP, Basha High (AZ)
Signing bonus: $547,500

"It was definitely at the end of Day 2 [and Round 10] where we started to feel like we could take a lot of our money in the pool into Day 3 and draft a lot of the kids who we thought were interesting potential signings," Johnson said. "We've typically tried to do some guys after the 10th like [2022 12th rounder] Luke Adams and [2021 14th rounder] Jace Avina and [2021 13th rounder] Quinton Low. We usually like to have some money to spend on Day 3, but this is the biggest group we've had since maybe 2018 or 2017.

"It just worked out this way. A lot of the kids were interested in getting their pro careers going, and they went in that direction."

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