winforlose wrote:Klomp wrote:winforlose wrote:
Who said I didn’t like the pick? I don’t get you guys. Either I am all in praising RD for his SL performance or I hate him as a player and think he is a bust. I mean honestly WTF. Why is the opinion that I think he might need a year to develop so blasphemous around here? Especially when the major pods are talking about what I am talking about the day after I talked it.
I'm fairly certain they were saying he needs a year of seasoning to become the starting PG (hence, having Conley here), not a year of seasoning to become a backup PG. One of your first posts in this thread you indicated that Dillingham needs to spend the entire season in Iowa. Not exactly something usually said about the 8th overall pick.
True, but the 8th overall pick is rarely on a contender. Usually you play the young guys as many minutes as you can to develop them. The last time a contender got a lottery pick (or maybe top 10,) was Tatum. There is nothing wrong with a 19 year old who comes in undersized needing time to adjust. Today’s pod Dilly section is all about Dilly needing to put on weight and keeping adjusting to the game. We saw some things he does well. Specifically, playing in transition and exploiting the mismatch when a big is forced to guard him when the defense is not fully set. The next thing we need to see is his getting past his defender and creating either with a dump off at the rim or kick out to the corner. Is that concept really controversial? Do you honestly believe that is not an important skill for an on ball guard?
This is an important skill and if he can’t do that it limits what you were hoping to get. I think this does undersell a couple of ways he’s creating advantages as a ball handler and passer—especially off of a screen and secondary action from that screen. I think while he hasn’t been turning the corner part of the reason why is teams are dragging him out trying to get around screens with hard hedges and the ball handler going over screens. They are doing this because they don’t want to give him any space to pull up because of the threat of his shot and they also don’t want to let him turn the corner quickly.
When Ant is at his best and aggressive, he is constantly pushing past this hedge and turning the corner and challenging that space. This requires a lot of energy and you have to be pretty explosive athletically because that extra time gives time for the defense to rotate and cut off the rim. Ant wasn’t able to do this consistently, especially later into the playoffs.
Rob is really good (maybe even better than Ant) at stringing out his dribble and showing that he’s probing to pull up to hold the hedging defender. This opens up a decision for the hedger on whether to hold for the shot and give up the roll or fall back on the roll and give up the shot. On this exact play, Rob hit 2 3 point jump shots, read the defender when they stayed hedged and hit the roll man, and then also hit Minott at the top of the key when Minott was able to rotate away from his man who rotated to help and get open at the top of the key.
This decision making as a ball handler in the 2 man game at the top of the key and threat to pull up if you give him space (and he’s trying to pull up if you give him anything) is a pretty mature and valuable skill as a ball handler and creates a lot of advantages. The other thing that I have seen is because he is a threat to pull up… while he doesn’t get all of the way to the rim right now he can cross a player up and beat him with his first step to make the defender step backward and the wing defender 1 pass away hedge into the gap. This leads to decent B grade looks which are important in an offense.
We haven’t seen this as much yet, but we have seen it a little bit I think the thing he will be able to even if he doesn’t get all of the way to the rim is he will be able to use screens to meander into the paint and we have seen that his decision making there with the floater/lob should be above average.
So, no he’s not getting around his defender and beating his hip and shoulder to the spot or at least through that physicality and because of that he’s not getting all of the way to the rim and because he’s not getting all of the way to the rim comsistently he’s not forcing the rim protector to step up and to create open weakside 3’s.
He will need to be able to do more of that, but I think you’re underselling other ways he has shown some ways to be effective and even some more advanced feel in those actions (obviously we need to see more). I think his ability to push pace while also slowing the game down and make (advanced reads) in 2 man game and his threat to pull up off of his jump shot that force teams to hold him and stay up at the 3 point line is a pretty decent foundation for ways to be effectively as a ball handler. Especially because he’s willing to make the easy 1 pass to Naz pass that Ant does as well and can create some space again because of his shot and quickness. In addition to this, his threat as an off ball player whether it’s relocating to the corner or break after the initiation pass to the big early in the action or his ability to move off that pass through the lane and through traffic and relocate creates movement and rotations that leads to either open shots or breakdowns (like his first pass to Leonard Miller yesterday). That’s not to mention purely playing off ball in the corner as a pure spacer.
If he can layer in the ability to come into the middle off the screen instead of going towards the corner and get into the middle of the lane for the lob/floater that’s another wrinkle he can add even with strength concerns and not getting to the rim that’s even there pretty effective. I agree that he will have to be able to beat his man 1 on 1 and with a screen get all of the way to the rim more often and open up that finish/3 point look. If he doesn’t do this he will be reliant on taking tough jump shots and floaters and while he may be a great shotmaker he will struggle to be more than average efficiency wise ala D Lo.
I think you’re making some fair points but I don’t think you’re talking through some of the areas that he’s shown some interesting things outside of what you said. And the things I said are all available basically on Day 1 as long as you believe in him as a 3 point shooter to be a 40%ish guy. Even if he can’t consistently get to the rim, but he’s showing the things I am saying I think he’s a D Lo level player with a lot better ability as a true 1 (and not as a flashy passer) and a better PnR ball handler.
Honestly, defense aside, this is somewhat similar to a more active and aggressive shooting Mike Conley on Offense with closer to a Mike Conley prime floater. I personally have not seen a ton of Wolves guards consistently make decisions in 2-man game like that. Others have said Rubio and mentioned Conley, I think Conley is fair although I don’t think defenses guard him that aggressively. I think Rubio was an incredible passer, but he want stretching the defense out on the break with a hang dribble and the threat of a 3 point shot and creating defensive breakdowns. That looked different.
This is largely all to say that because Dillingham has shown a level of natural feel and processing for true “1” parts of the game that is more than what was advertised and how he reportedly played at Duke — to me this ultimately opens up more upside to me then the other learning we have had which is he’s really small and probably going to struggle to consistent beat his man off the dribble 1 on 1 to blow by him and get all of the way to the rim in general and finish in traffic.
This is a different player than I was expecting early. And I acknowledge the lack of rim pressure is concerning because this is the Wolves biggest roster weakness outside of Ant, but I do think that I feel more confident in the ability he has shown as a scorer in his career and his ability with his handle to find spots on the floor to get to and learn how to finish at the rim passably. And I feel surprised by the fact that I think he has legit “good” point guard potential, natural feel for Day 1, and an ability to with his handle and decision making really limit turnovers despite his physicality struggles and aggressiveness at pushing pace.
If he isn’t able to be a 40%ish 3 point shooter on good volume, regardless of how he’s getting those shots I would have some concerns. The last thing I’ll say while I acknowledge this is built on the faith of him being a 40%ish 3 point shooter. I think you might undersell his ability to create shots 3 point shots and beat his defender 1 on 1 because of his inability to finish at the rim. If you watch the last game in his highlights, there are multiple possessions where his quick dribble and suddenness along with his handle do get him past his initial defender when he’s rejecting screens or going early.
In one play, he gets into the lane with ease and his lack of size makes the finish harder than it is but it wasn’t a hard finish. In this play, he had the defender on his heels and while he didn’t completely blow past him I think he didn’t have trouble collapsing the defense. The spacing was good so he didn’t deal with help, but he also was extremely quick into the lane. On another play, his handle and suddenness got him a step on the defender and he got into the lane and got that step around the elbow and kicked it to the 3 point line. Part of this is his handle and burst, part of this is also again his ability to manage the game and feel as a “1”. He is calling screens consistently and setting up action — as he does this he can play off the timing and go on an off beat pace to catch his defender flat footed.
So, in addition to what I mentioned above about the PnR and double drag actions and the multiple threats he creates there as a shooter and processor, the ability to relocate and move without the ball to create chaos off his shooting gravity, the ability to feel when to reject the screen and go to catch defenders flat flooted and create an advantage, and his ability to play off ball and space as a shooting threat and secondary playmaker is still a pretty deep half court skillset. Then, you add in his ability to push the pace and set the tone in that way in the full court and this is pretty interesting.
If he can create advantages I’m pretty confident in his ability to get into the middle of the lane and play off of floaters and lobs as this doesn’t really require size and quickness it’s more about timing and patience and reading when to do this (Conley isn’t fast or explosive or strong). But again I’ll say to me talking through this, I think he’s the 2nd best point guard skill prospect the Wolves have had since Rubio. And at least from a feel standpoint, I’d maybe only put Conley and Rubio above him.
