Current offer on the table for Lauri

[WarriorGM]

I'm not even sure Lauri for Moody straight up is a good trade.

[Old_Blue]

Danny Ainge is a jerk, always has been. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the guy who steals peoples' lunches out of the Jazz break room fridge. SEVEN first round picks/swaps for Markkanen? B.S. The Dubs shouldn't even be answering Ainge's phone calls.

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/celtics-danny-ainge-on-flopping-in-nba-acting-is-part-of-the-game-toucher-and-rich/

[DonaldSanders]

I just listened to the full interview with Lacob on The Athletic podcast w/ Marcus & Aldridge. I gotta say I feel good about us not doing something stupid... Lacob seemed to emphasize multiple times that we can't make a franchise crippling trade that gives up all our future. He also talked about trades where the other side isn't being logical, but wouldn't say who (I think we know).

At this point I doubt a deal happens, which is probably for the best given the silly "Ainge ransom."

[clyde21]

the one part that makes Markkanen intriguing here is that he helps our front court bottleneck, he works well next both Dray and TJD in theory, so it solves a lot of personnel and lineup problems for us, even though in a vacuum i'm not a HUGE fan of the player and don't think he will be worth all these picks

i'd probably pull the trigger here as long as JK isn't in the deal, but anything more than this and i'd walk away.

[clyde21]

also, think long term, in 3 years once it's time for Steph to hang it up most likely, we should be able to recoup some of the picks back if we blow it up, considering Lauri *should* still be in his prime at that point

so yea, if this is the package, I say go for it, but for some reason I doubt that Ainge would want anything less than everything mentioned here PLUS Kuminga.

[Mac1958]

Ainge won't sign off on a trade unless he can fleece you and take you out of multiple drafts.

Changes/additions/subtractions are badly needed, but with this guy? I doubt there's a good deal there.

[Onus]

By being one the worst off ball big men defensively

I really don't see him being one of the worst off ball big men defensively.

https://watchreplay.net/thunder-vs-jazz-february-6-2024/20511/

I see terrible communication throughout the team along with bad defenders where people start randomly rotating. But teams don't try to attack Lauri like he's some massive liability. I mean sure there are some bad plays there but it's not some achilles heel that would tank a defense. He's definitely not a rim protector and he doesn't help early enough as a center. But the defense behind him is terrible. He has the tools to be a solid defender and he's not some liability in isolation.

lol look if you want to believe he's some competent defender, that's fine. I have no problem with faith, people have it in all kinds of players on this board

But if you are going to keep showing me individual things and one game clips as if its going to undo the data I see, or think I'm incapable of seeing a good defender (or even average defender) that's just been straddled to some bad defenses, then I have nothing to say about that. He had great defenders behind him in CLE and was still a well below average defender. He's a very poor help defender. And also, not for nothing, but bad defenses hide bad defenders just as much as they hire good defenders. But the reality is, he's poor at covering ground, poor at closeouts, poor at rotations, really below average in PnR defense, obviously brings little to the table in terms of rim protection, doesnt tip passes, and peaks as an on-ball defender as below average, and only against 4s. That's the data, it's not gonna change. But considering we've already seen him on a good defensive team and he still was below average, why would I think he's going to buck all these odds and be capable here?

Defense can be improved. It's probably one of the easiest things that can be improved upon. As long as you have the requisite athleticism to stay in front, rotate, and bbiq to know where to go you can be a decent defender. Lauri has the the athleticism to compete on the defensive end. He's not like Saric who can't keep his man in front of him, or lacks the speed or mobility to rotate. Lauri can do that. He's not the twitchiest of defenders so he does struggle closing out in a controlled manner, but he can move players off their spots. He has the size to contest and rebound. He's not a complete negative on that end where you can just hunt him relentlessly. So in my opinion he has the tools to be an avg defender if in the right environment. He won't single handedly turn a defense around but he also won't single handedly sink a defense either.

Yes you have data about what has happened. I'm not arguing whether or not he was a bad defender. I'm saying he has the tools to be an adequate defender. In Cle he was playing mostly as a 3, which he won't be playing here at all. Yea I can see a 7' struggle trying to guard the perimeter consistently. Yea he doesn't help early enough or with enough conviction. He's too worried about his man and doesn't leave his body early enough or with any real conviction. I don't think he's poor at covering ground. He can cover it, he just needs to know when to cover it. He is pretty poor at closeouts but he can at least force players off their spots and force them to drive. His rotations aren't sharp, but no one's in utah is. Everyone just randomly scrambles. No one is talking on defense so it forces hesitation which causes you to be late. Same with pnr defense, no communication, you see hesitation whether he should stay with his man or should pick up the ball handler, they just don't know what they're consistently doing. Agreed he doesn't bring rim protection you'd expect from a 7', but players also don't really just challenge him either, it's usually because he's either late but he is still 7'. He doesn't tip many balls. Basically a lot of the issues are due to hesitation and not knowing what exactly to do because he's trying to see what his teammates are doing rather than just doing it and knowing someone will help him behind him.

You're putting a lot of faith in that cle data when he was playing out of position as a 3 there. It's hard to go against numbers when that's what you rely most on. I get it, it's easy. Numbers says this, that's what I think end of discussion.

[vagelis]

I have seen Markannen play in Fiba tournaments and he was always impressive.
I value him very high as a player.

There is no question about his offense.
About his defense, I dont care about the data.
He is a 7 footer, athletic and with good speed for his height.
I really cannot believe that he cannot be atleast a good defender in a good team.
I dont say that he will be a great defender but he will be good and an upgrade atleast.

When Wiggins was traded to Warriors the data was saying that he was a bad defender.
I said back then that Wiggins is a very good defender despite the data.
The eye test was saying me that.

I say something similar now.
Markannen can be a plus defender and better than Looney and TJD.

I have Markannen better than Towns as a player.
He is better offensively and defensively.

[CDM_Stats]

You're putting a lot of faith in that cle data when he was playing out of position as a 3 there. It's hard to go against numbers when that's what you rely most on. I get it, it's easy. Numbers says this, that's what I think end of discussion.

Analysis. Not numbers. These arent metrics, this is analysis that is compiled to reduce, or eliminate, bias like showing one video and saying things like you have. It dives way, way deeper than I go into here because I'm not writing a thesis paper every time

Like, for example, 40% of Lauri's time in CLE was at PF. It also wasn't good for the same reasons it wasn't good at any stop because he's not a good defender. Despite eyesight analysis, he times out as slow across the board - lateral quickness, closing distance, etc.. if you want to think differently, feel free. If you want to try and convince me by showing a few plays - that everyone, even the worst players in the league, could similarly produce - then its not going to work, and I'm telling you so. Simple as that

[CDM_Stats]

When Wiggins was traded to Warriors the data was saying that he was a bad defender.

No, it didnt. It did say he should never be a top 2 option, is a very inefficient offensive player, and shouldnt be handling the ball though... matter of fact, the tracking was entirely spot on with regards to Wiggins. Like to the letter

[Impuniti]

I don't know about anyone else, but I am sick of hearing the name Lauri.

Yeah, me too.

The trade rumors around this guy coming here have been circulating for well over a year now. And while I'm certainly no Markkanen expert, I payed it some extra attention during our UTH matchups this year, and really don't understand what all the hype is about. Granted, eyeballing a player for a few games is no substitute for actual analysis, but this board's consensus pretty much matches what I saw in that limited exposure - tall guy can shoot and doesn't defend all that well. Didn't we just let one of those walk for nothing? Feels like the kind of thing a team dumps a bunch of money into and then 2 years later is deep in regret. Someone here even brought up Troy Murphy... kek!

If Ainge's rumored asking price is anywhere close to accurate, ain't nuthin' gonna happen anyhow. So yeah, like you I'm ready for these trade rumors to fade into the ether. Let some other team make this mistake.

He's the best off ball big man that be an actual #2 option and space the floor without needing the ball (so Draymond isn't useless on the floor with Steph and Lauri). He would be great IMO, but some of the rumored stories we hear about Ainge expects don't even make sense. There's a point where you can have a deal and then whatever fictional fantasies the nut job in Utah wants.

If he doesn't want to make a deal, good luck having Lauri and not able to tank properly. But hey, at least he can prop himself up for being a tough (and delusional) negotiator.

[Onus]

You're putting a lot of faith in that cle data when he was playing out of position as a 3 there. It's hard to go against numbers when that's what you rely most on. I get it, it's easy. Numbers says this, that's what I think end of discussion.

Analysis. Not numbers. These arent metrics, this is analysis that is compiled to reduce, or eliminate, bias like showing one video and saying things like you have. It dives way, way deeper than I go into here because I'm not writing a thesis paper every time

Like, for example, 40% of Lauri's time in CLE was at PF. It also wasn't good for the same reasons it wasn't good at any stop because he's not a good defender. Despite eyesight analysis, he times out as slow across the board - lateral quickness, closing distance, etc.. if you want to think differently, feel free. If you want to try and convince me by showing a few plays - that everyone, even the worst players in the league, could similarly produce - then its not going to work, and I'm telling you so. Simple as that

Analysis? hard to argue against analysis without knowing what the analysis is. So that's just a black box. So ok.

I'm not trying to convince you, because obviously you've already done the analysis. But you're saying he's slow, I'm saying the reason he's grading out as slow is because he's hesitating and not playing defense with any conviction.

I don't see Lauri being a worst defender than current Klay or Saric.

[EvanZ]

You're putting a lot of faith in that cle data when he was playing out of position as a 3 there. It's hard to go against numbers when that's what you rely most on. I get it, it's easy. Numbers says this, that's what I think end of discussion.

Analysis. Not numbers. These arent metrics, this is analysis that is compiled to reduce, or eliminate, bias like showing one video and saying things like you have. It dives way, way deeper than I go into here because I'm not writing a thesis paper every time

Like, for example, 40% of Lauri's time in CLE was at PF. It also wasn't good for the same reasons it wasn't good at any stop because he's not a good defender. Despite eyesight analysis, he times out as slow across the board - lateral quickness, closing distance, etc.. if you want to think differently, feel free. If you want to try and convince me by showing a few plays - that everyone, even the worst players in the league, could similarly produce - then its not going to work, and I'm telling you so. Simple as that

If you want to convince people, you need to actually convince them. Not just hand waive and say the things we are using aren't good enough.

Show us what you have. It's not like we're not open-minded. I don't think a single person here thinks Lauri is some All-NBA defensive star anyway. He's an offensive weapon and a great one at that. So please, once again, if you have some great data please share it with us. Very excited to see what you got cookin.

[billinder33]

I don't know about anyone else, but I am sick of hearing the name Lauri.

Yeah, me too.

The trade rumors around this guy coming here have been circulating for well over a year now. And while I'm certainly no Markkanen expert, I payed it some extra attention during our UTH matchups this year, and really don't understand what all the hype is about. Granted, eyeballing a player for a few games is no substitute for actual analysis, but this board's consensus pretty much matches what I saw in that limited exposure - tall guy can shoot and doesn't defend all that well. Didn't we just let one of those walk for nothing? Feels like the kind of thing a team dumps a bunch of money into and then 2 years later is deep in regret. Someone here even brought up Troy Murphy... kek!

If Ainge's rumored asking price is anywhere close to accurate, ain't nuthin' gonna happen anyhow. So yeah, like you I'm ready for these trade rumors to fade into the ether. Let some other team make this mistake.

He's the best off ball big man that be an actual #2 option and space the floor without needing the ball (so Draymond isn't useless on the floor with Steph and Lauri). He would be great IMO, but some of the rumored stories we hear about Ainge expects don't even make sense. There's a point where you can have a deal and then whatever fictional fantasies the nut job in Utah wants.

If he doesn't want to make a deal, good luck having Lauri and not able to tank properly. But hey, at least he can prop himself up for being a tough (and delusional) negotiator.

When both guys are on the floor, is Lauri at the 3 or is Dray at the 5? I don't find either scenario all that attractive and both scenarios strike me as more situational basketball than something you'd want to trot out on a nightly basis as a default mode of operation.

So even accepting the premise that Laurie is a starter-level plus talent, I have serious questions about the fit. I get that they are complementary players in a sense, but it's a lot of capital dedicated to 2 players who ideally play the same position. The more I zoom out and look at the roster holistically, the more a player like Markkanen seems more like a 'nice to have' than one who slots into a definitive need. Versus say Paul George would or Durant did at that time.

I'm open to the possibility that maybe his versatility would provide more value than I'm giving credit for. But at this point I'm convinced that this is all pipe dream talk anyhow and ANGH.

[KevinMcreynolds]

Manleavy out here like



and Ainge be like

[Onus]

Yeah, me too.

The trade rumors around this guy coming here have been circulating for well over a year now. And while I'm certainly no Markkanen expert, I payed it some extra attention during our UTH matchups this year, and really don't understand what all the hype is about. Granted, eyeballing a player for a few games is no substitute for actual analysis, but this board's consensus pretty much matches what I saw in that limited exposure - tall guy can shoot and doesn't defend all that well. Didn't we just let one of those walk for nothing? Feels like the kind of thing a team dumps a bunch of money into and then 2 years later is deep in regret. Someone here even brought up Troy Murphy... kek!

If Ainge's rumored asking price is anywhere close to accurate, ain't nuthin' gonna happen anyhow. So yeah, like you I'm ready for these trade rumors to fade into the ether. Let some other team make this mistake.

He's the best off ball big man that be an actual #2 option and space the floor without needing the ball (so Draymond isn't useless on the floor with Steph and Lauri). He would be great IMO, but some of the rumored stories we hear about Ainge expects don't even make sense. There's a point where you can have a deal and then whatever fictional fantasies the nut job in Utah wants.

If he doesn't want to make a deal, good luck having Lauri and not able to tank properly. But hey, at least he can prop himself up for being a tough (and delusional) negotiator.

When both guys are on the floor, is Lauri at the 3 or is Dray at the 5? I don't find either scenario all that attractive and both scenarios strike me as more situational basketball than something you'd want to trot out on a nightly basis as a default mode of operation.

So even accepting the premise that Laurie is a starter-level plus talent, I have serious questions about the fit. I get that they are complementary players in a sense, but it's a lot of capital dedicated to 2 players who ideally play the same position. The more I zoom out and look at the roster holistically, the more a player like Markkanen seems more like a 'nice to have' than one who slots into a definitive need. Versus say Paul George would or Durant did at that time.

I'm open to the possibility that maybe his versatility would provide more value than I'm giving credit for. But at this point I'm convinced that this is all pipe dream talk anyhow and ANGH.

Why is pg a better fit position wise? He's a 3/4, which we have covered in Wiggins and Dray, meaning once again someone will be playing out of position with PG.

[CDM_Stats]

Analysis? hard to argue against analysis without knowing what the analysis is. So that's just a black box. So ok.

I'm not trying to convince you, because obviously you've already done the analysis. But you're saying he's slow, I'm saying the reason he's grading out as slow is because he's hesitating and not playing defense with any conviction.

I don't see Lauri being a worst defender than current Klay or Saric.

The analysis is how we get the numbers.. most of these metrics are boxscore based, there's no actual context to them. SS is malleable, so based on which team/agency has signed on, they can add context. So its subjective, not objective, because it needs to be in order to be accurate. And to be clear - I'm not doing any of the analysis, its being done by teams and agencies and consult groups and people actually getting paid. I just relay information that I'm lucky enough to get when I ask, so long as I don't out where its coming from

And with that analysis, there's no reason to think he'll be significantly better defensively, and he would need to be significantly better to not be a liability for a defense that can't afford liabilities at those spots in order to be successful. Consider David Lee - his offense wasnt good enough to cover for his defensive issues and taking him out of the lineup was a big move. Lauri's offense definitely covers and then some, but with this team, a defensive sieve not only lowers his individual value, it lowers the value/impact of others who bring defensive value. Dray, Wiggins, Looney, presumably Melton, GP2.. the way the W's system works is that one bad player can reduce impact across the board

I'd wager he's better than Klay or Saric (who was worse than Klay, fwiw) by virtue of being taller. But he's not replacing Klay defensively, he's replacing Kuminga or Wiggins or Looney at the 4/5. Which is a bigger impact as teams tend to use that position to spam PnR, which Lauri is similarly bad at - something that has nothing to do with teammates

And that's before we get into additional context: he's gonna cost a ton of draft capital - Warriors draft capital, which is inherently more valuable than any draft capital the team would get back in trading Lauri later on - and how the team has almost no margin of error in order to legitimately compete for a ring

[CDM_Stats]

You're putting a lot of faith in that cle data when he was playing out of position as a 3 there. It's hard to go against numbers when that's what you rely most on. I get it, it's easy. Numbers says this, that's what I think end of discussion.

Analysis. Not numbers. These arent metrics, this is analysis that is compiled to reduce, or eliminate, bias like showing one video and saying things like you have. It dives way, way deeper than I go into here because I'm not writing a thesis paper every time

Like, for example, 40% of Lauri's time in CLE was at PF. It also wasn't good for the same reasons it wasn't good at any stop because he's not a good defender. Despite eyesight analysis, he times out as slow across the board - lateral quickness, closing distance, etc.. if you want to think differently, feel free. If you want to try and convince me by showing a few plays - that everyone, even the worst players in the league, could similarly produce - then its not going to work, and I'm telling you so. Simple as that

If you want to convince people, you need to actually convince them. Not just hand waive and say the things we are using aren't good enough.

Show us what you have. It's not like we're not open-minded. I don't think a single person here thinks Lauri is some All-NBA defensive star anyway. He's an offensive weapon and a great one at that. So please, once again, if you have some great data please share it with us. Very excited to see what you got cookin.

Check the other Lauri thread then.. went over it in great detail there

I'm not concerned whether or not people believe it, just that showing a few clips and hand waving off any data - even the free **** that also shows the same issues - isn't a reason to believe he's worth it. I mean I'm sure you have access to individual defensive play types with Lauri, what do they tell you? The same thing I'm saying, right?

[Onus]

Analysis? hard to argue against analysis without knowing what the analysis is. So that's just a black box. So ok.

I'm not trying to convince you, because obviously you've already done the analysis. But you're saying he's slow, I'm saying the reason he's grading out as slow is because he's hesitating and not playing defense with any conviction.

I don't see Lauri being a worst defender than current Klay or Saric.

The analysis is how we get the numbers.. most of these metrics are boxscore based, there's no actual context to them. SS is malleable, so based on which team/agency has signed on, they can add context. So its subjective, not objective, because it needs to be in order to be accurate. And to be clear - I'm not doing any of the analysis, its being done by teams and agencies and consult groups and people actually getting paid. I just relay information that I'm lucky enough to get when I ask, so long as I don't out where its coming from

And with that analysis, there's no reason to think he'll be significantly better defensively, and he would need to be significantly better to not be a liability for a defense that can't afford liabilities at those spots in order to be successful. Consider David Lee - his offense wasnt good enough to cover for his defensive issues and taking him out of the lineup was a big move. Lauri's offense definitely covers and then some, but with this team, a defensive sieve not only lowers his individual value, it lowers the value/impact of others who bring defensive value. Dray, Wiggins, Looney, presumably Melton, GP2.. the way the W's system works is that one bad player can reduce impact across the board

I'd wager he's better than Klay or Saric (who was worse than Klay, fwiw) by virtue of being taller. But he's not replacing Klay defensively, he's replacing Kuminga or Wiggins or Looney at the 4/5. Which is a bigger impact as teams tend to use that position to spam PnR, which Lauri is similarly bad at - something that has nothing to do with teammates

And that's before we get into additional context: he's gonna cost a ton of draft capital - Warriors draft capital, which is inherently more valuable than any draft capital the team would get back in trading Lauri later on - and how the team has almost no margin of error in order to legitimately compete for a ring

The system is bad if you need 4 elite defenders in order for it to work.

I'm not going to lie I think he might be a better defender than JK as well. But yea he won't be better than Wiggins or Looney. But Melton will be much better than Klay both at the poa and in help. Probably a better helper than at poa.

My hope really is that he can be Barnes level of defense. Not really do much but not stick out like a sore thumb.

Again when you watch the jazz play the pnr there's no continuity to what they're doing. There's no communication about what they want to do. You can literally see them see if they should stay or go. That's partially on Lauri for not communicating what he wants the poa to do. But they also should have a game plan for what they want to do consistently. And really it looks like they wanted the defender to get through the screen and then have Lauri recover, but sometimes they get by so then lauri is hesitating who he should cover. It really does seem terrible.

We'll see what he actually does cost. I think MDJ stays strong it's either players or picks not both. If he comes he comes if he doesn't then whatever.

[CDM_Stats]

The system is bad if you need 4 elite defenders in order for it to work.

You said this before and I'll say it again, it doesn't require anywhere near elite defenders to work. It requires people not to be bad. Lauri has been bad. JK has been bad, Oubre has been bad, Wiseman has been bad, Klay has been bad. Bad defenders break the system. I mean thats par for the course almost everywhere

The rest.. maybe he could be better than JK on ball. Depends which JK we get.. rookie JK had some serious potential on-ball, but its been in decline since. Monta-like, even

As for the PnR thing, thats what PnR defense is. The big man has to know when its time to either attack the handler or drop back.. his hesitation is on him. If he's waiting for the guy getting screened to tell him what to do, then he's already a pylon. He's the one with the full vision, its his call to make. Just like if he challenges up top, its up to the guys behind him to close on the roller. But this is why I'm putting my foot in the ground on his defense - he dropped most of the time. And when you play drop, that means you have to make the call on where to go yourself. If he attacked up top a lot and then the defense behind him failed, I'd be more open to the idea that a better system will help him. But too frequently he hedges into a spot where he's not really helping anyone. But that's all individual takes.. if you look at how he did in CLE, the results were marginally better, but not much. And that was with Mobley (albeit a rookie) and Allen behind him, along with Okoro as wing help. That said.. I'm sure there was a fair bit of Love, Wade and Stevens too, but not enough to justify the poor numbers