Current offer on the table for Lauri

[Onus]

The system is bad if you need 4 elite defenders in order for it to work.

You said this before and I'll say it again, it doesn't require anywhere near elite defenders to work. It requires people not to be bad. Lauri has been bad. JK has been bad, Oubre has been bad, Wiseman has been bad, Klay has been bad. Bad defenders break the system. I mean thats par for the course almost everywhere

The rest.. maybe he could be better than JK on ball. Depends which JK we get.. rookie JK had some serious potential on-ball, but its been in decline since. Monta-like, even

As for the PnR thing, thats what PnR defense is. The big man has to know when its time to either attack the handler or drop back.. his hesitation is on him. If he's waiting for the guy getting screened to tell him what to do, then he's already a pylon. He's the one with the full vision, its his call to make. Just like if he challenges up top, its up to the guys behind him to close on the roller. But this is why I'm putting my foot in the ground on his defense - he dropped most of the time. And when you play drop, that means you have to make the call on where to go yourself. If he attacked up top a lot and then the defense behind him failed, I'd be more open to the idea that a better system will help him. But too frequently he hedges into a spot where he's not really helping anyone. But that's all individual takes.. if you look at how he did in CLE, the results were marginally better, but not much. And that was with Mobley (albeit a rookie) and Allen behind him, along with Okoro as wing help. That said.. I'm sure there was a fair bit of Love, Wade and Stevens too, but not enough to justify the poor numbers

If teams can make a defense work with Luka ole'ing and Kyrie or Jokic not being able to defend on an island and with MPJ's aloofness, or with Dmitch and Garland and we can't make a defense work with Curry/Melton/Wiggins/Dray/Lauri, which would have 3+ defenders on it then yes the system sucks.

I agree with everything you've said about the pnr defense, which is why if he's in a switch everything system there's no hesitation, you just switch. There's no reading the situation. I agree his help defense isn't great he's in no man's land a lot, scared to come off of his man. But these aren't physical limitations on things he can't do. These are mental aspects that can be coached. It's not like he's getting lost, or can't keep players in front of him. I guess maybe he's getting lost in a sense but it's more so finding his voice on defense and just doing it and living with the results and expecting someone behind will help you, than losing his man and not knowing where to rotate to.

[CDM_Stats]

If teams can make a defense work with Luka ole'ing and Kyrie or Jokic not being able to defend on an island and with MPJ's aloofness, or with Dmitch and Garland and we can't make a defense work with Curry/Melton/Wiggins/Dray/Lauri, which would have 3+ defenders on it then yes the system sucks.

Ok, but then you can no longer hide Curry and he will gas faster, and you're taking a lot of the value out of Wiggins and Draymond, and then would need to introduce a new system that doesnt cater to the stars who've been here for a decade. The system made elite defenses despite not following typical accepted practices - thus not paying defensive premiums like most teams - and is still the best option by far for this roster. If you disagree, take a look at how some of our important guys do in isolation.. we no longer have the Bogut we'd need to do that.

BTW, those teams you highlight? Did not have elite defenses. Didnt need it because they had extremely capable offenses to supplement their good enough defenses. The Warriors are almost certainly not going to have an offense that can do that. The system has always been using Steph's crazy impact to hold the offense afloat while the defense locks down. The roster is built for that.. its why Kerr kept trying to get Klay going

I agree with everything you've said about the pnr defense, which is why if he's in a switch everything system there's no hesitation, you just switch. There's no reading the situation. I agree his help defense isn't great he's in no man's land a lot, scared to come off of his man. But these aren't physical limitations on things he can't do. These are mental aspects that can be coached. It's not like he's getting lost, or can't keep players in front of him. I guess maybe he's getting lost in a sense but it's more so finding his voice on defense and just doing it and living with the results and expecting someone behind will help you, than losing his man and not knowing where to rotate to.

Eh... hes not really good at keeping people in front of him either. I mean at the 5 he can, at the 4 maybe? But if he gets switched, which he absolutely would on the Warriors, no, he's not good at that. His individual matchup stats are healthily below average for PFs, in the dumpster for SFs, and would be average or so for Cs

He'll likely do better in a better system, sure. But I've said all I can on this - you can't be bad in the Warriors system and still have an elite defense. And the team will need an elite defense to be a legit contender, and the odds are heavily against Lauri being able to be part of an elite defense. If he could hold his own defensively, he'd be a top 10 player

[billinder33]

He's the best off ball big man that be an actual #2 option and space the floor without needing the ball (so Draymond isn't useless on the floor with Steph and Lauri). He would be great IMO, but some of the rumored stories we hear about Ainge expects don't even make sense. There's a point where you can have a deal and then whatever fictional fantasies the nut job in Utah wants.

If he doesn't want to make a deal, good luck having Lauri and not able to tank properly. But hey, at least he can prop himself up for being a tough (and delusional) negotiator.

When both guys are on the floor, is Lauri at the 3 or is Dray at the 5? I don't find either scenario all that attractive and both scenarios strike me as more situational basketball than something you'd want to trot out on a nightly basis as a default mode of operation.

So even accepting the premise that Laurie is a starter-level plus talent, I have serious questions about the fit. I get that they are complementary players in a sense, but it's a lot of capital dedicated to 2 players who ideally play the same position. The more I zoom out and look at the roster holistically, the more a player like Markkanen seems more like a 'nice to have' than one who slots into a definitive need. Versus say Paul George would or Durant did at that time.

I'm open to the possibility that maybe his versatility would provide more value than I'm giving credit for. But at this point I'm convinced that this is all pipe dream talk anyhow and ANGH.

Why is pg a better fit position wise? He's a 3/4, which we have covered in Wiggins and Dray, meaning once again someone will be playing out of position with PG.

PG has been universally regarded as a 2/3 his whole career, more 3 than 2 in later years. I've never seen PG listed as a 4 or playing a primary role for any team in that position. Is that a new development I'm not aware of?

[EvanZ]

PG has been universally regarded as a 2/3 his whole career, more 3 than 2 in later years. I've never seen PG listed as a 4 or playing a primary role for any team in that position. Is that a new development I'm not aware of?

Who is the 4 in this starting lineup?

James Harden
Terrence Mann
Kawhi Leonard
Paul George
Ivica Zubac

[Onus]

If teams can make a defense work with Luka ole'ing and Kyrie or Jokic not being able to defend on an island and with MPJ's aloofness, or with Dmitch and Garland and we can't make a defense work with Curry/Melton/Wiggins/Dray/Lauri, which would have 3+ defenders on it then yes the system sucks.

Ok, but then you can no longer hide Curry and he will gas faster, and you're taking a lot of the value out of Wiggins and Draymond, and then would need to introduce a new system that doesnt cater to the stars who've been here for a decade. The system made elite defenses despite not following typical accepted practices - thus not paying defensive premiums like most teams - and is still the best option by far for this roster. If you disagree, take a look at how some of our important guys do in isolation.. we no longer have the Bogut we'd need to do that.

BTW, those teams you highlight? Did not have elite defenses. Didnt need it because they had extremely capable offenses to supplement their good enough defenses. The Warriors are almost certainly not going to have an offense that can do that. The system has always been using Steph's crazy impact to hold the offense afloat while the defense locks down. The roster is built for that.. its why Kerr kept trying to get Klay going

I agree with everything you've said about the pnr defense, which is why if he's in a switch everything system there's no hesitation, you just switch. There's no reading the situation. I agree his help defense isn't great he's in no man's land a lot, scared to come off of his man. But these aren't physical limitations on things he can't do. These are mental aspects that can be coached. It's not like he's getting lost, or can't keep players in front of him. I guess maybe he's getting lost in a sense but it's more so finding his voice on defense and just doing it and living with the results and expecting someone behind will help you, than losing his man and not knowing where to rotate to.

Eh... hes not really good at keeping people in front of him either. I mean at the 5 he can, at the 4 maybe? But if he gets switched, which he absolutely would on the Warriors, no, he's not good at that. His individual matchup stats are healthily below average for PFs, in the dumpster for SFs, and would be average or so for Cs

He'll likely do better in a better system, sure. But I've said all I can on this - you can't be bad in the Warriors system and still have an elite defense. And the team will need an elite defense to be a legit contender, and the odds are heavily against Lauri being able to be part of an elite defense. If he could hold his own defensively, he'd be a top 10 player

You really don't think our offense would be great with Curry/Melton/Wiggins/Dray/Lauri? This would be by far be our best offense since 2022. And probably the best spacing we've had since KD. Add in Hield and that's going to be a nightmare to guard (defense obviously not being accounted for here).

Why wouldn't we be able to hide curry still? Curry would still guard the stationary player. Everyone else would be switching 2-5. Although tbh I'm not sure we'd able to do that still with Melton with or without Lauri. So the defensive system may be changing regardless of Lauri coming in or not.

So he would be average for centers where he would be mostly playing for us. Seems like we're getting somewhere. And he wouldn't need to always be the help since Dray would be roaming with Wiggins and Melton rotating. Lauri really just needs to be able to put a body on their center and come down with the rebound. The other thing is we're going to be a lot faster than we currently are especially offensively.

[CDM_Stats]

You really don't think our offense would be great with Curry/Melton/Wiggins/Dray/Lauri? This would be by far be our best offense since 2022. And probably the best spacing we've had since KD. Add in Hield and that's going to be a nightmare to guard (defense obviously not being accounted for here).

lol lucky you added that last line.. do I think our offense will be great in that lineup? Possibly, yes. Adding 2 new players, being mostly perimeter-based.. it will definitely have some high variance

Why wouldn't we be able to hide curry still? Curry would still guard the stationary player. Everyone else would be switching 2-5. Although tbh I'm not sure we'd able to do that still with Melton with or without Lauri. So the defensive system may be changing regardless of Lauri coming in or not.

So he would be average for centers where he would be mostly playing for us. Seems like we're getting somewhere. And he wouldn't need to always be the help since Dray would be roaming with Wiggins and Melton rotating. Lauri really just needs to be able to put a body on their center and come down with the rebound. The other thing is we're going to be a lot faster than we currently are especially offensively.

Why would Melton be a problem? He'd be the likely POA defender and even if not, he's been a solid off-ball defender throughout his career.. and Curry wouldnt be the one we arent able to hide. The whole system is to help hide him. We wouldnt be able to hide Lauri though

Lauri at center is not a good idea either considering the thing you said he needs to do.. he's lousy at it. Very few contested rebounds, low boxout rate (for a F, nevermind a C). No one *always* needs to be the help, its based on the offense. And like they've attacked weak points in the past, why wouldnt they attack Lauri in the future? Tire him out, he's not the most durable.. and he's clearly the weakest point. Wouldnt that be who you would attack in that lineup?

[vagelis]

When Wiggins was traded to Warriors the data was saying that he was a bad defender.

No, it didnt. It did say he should never be a top 2 option, is a very inefficient offensive player, and shouldnt be handling the ball though... matter of fact, the tracking was entirely spot on with regards to Wiggins. Like to the letter

With the first google search in order for you to remember a bit better what the data was saying about Wiggins defense

most catastrophic defender in the league: Andrew Wiggins
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nba-haters-ball/?ex_cid=538twitter

The data are the worst manner to come in conclusions for people who dont understand the game and the context.

Wiggins played for a team that had 2 really bad defenders Lavine and Towns. And people didnt understand that Wiggins was a good defender playing in a bad defensive team

[Onus]

Why would Melton be a problem? He'd be the likely POA defender and even if not, he's been a solid off-ball defender throughout his career.. and Curry wouldnt be the one we arent able to hide. The whole system is to help hide him. We wouldnt be able to hide Lauri though

Lauri at center is not a good idea either considering the thing you said he needs to do.. he's lousy at it. Very few contested rebounds, low boxout rate (for a F, nevermind a C). No one *always* needs to be the help, its based on the offense. And like they've attacked weak points in the past, why wouldnt they attack Lauri in the future? Tire him out, he's not the most durable.. and he's clearly the weakest point. Wouldnt that be who you would attack in that lineup?

I don't think Melton will be able to switch on to bigs as effectively as Klay has been able to. But then again I don't know which players would actually go to the post to take advantage of that. So who knows.

If they attack Lauri then that means all of our best help defenders are behind him.

[HiRez]

I'll say it again...forget Lauri and make Houston an offer they can't refuse for Sengun. It'll be cheaper. And while it would promote a different sort of system, would be just as effective if not moreso if adjusted (Kerr would be a problem there though).

[CDM_Stats]

When Wiggins was traded to Warriors the data was saying that he was a bad defender.

No, it didnt. It did say he should never be a top 2 option, is a very inefficient offensive player, and shouldnt be handling the ball though... matter of fact, the tracking was entirely spot on with regards to Wiggins. Like to the letter

With the first google search in order for you to remember a bit better what the data was saying about Wiggins defense

most catastrophic defender in the league: Andrew Wiggins
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nba-haters-ball/?ex_cid=538twitter

The data are the worst manner to come in conclusions for people who dont understand the game and the context.

Wiggins played for a team that had 2 really bad defenders Lavine and Towns. And people didnt understand that Wiggins was a good defender playing in a bad defensive team

#1 - that was 2 years, 8 months before the trade
#2 - the worst people are those who rush into an argument not knowing what they are saying, and that is not limited to people who misuse data. People who use the first google hit without checking anything behind it, for example
#3 - Wiggins was absolutely a garbage defender coming into the league through at least year 3 and by the looks of it, about half of year 4. Only then did he start getting it. And by the time he was dealt, tracking had him as a positive defender. How do I know? Well I hated the trade when it happened because like most, I heard Wiggins was garbage and thought he was too. I was new to tracking at that time and saw that tracking liked his defensive potential, which shook my faith in tracking. And then about 10 games into his first full year with the Warriors, I understood why tracking thought what it did

[CDM_Stats]

I don't think Melton will be able to switch on to bigs as effectively as Klay has been able to. But then again I don't know which players would actually go to the post to take advantage of that. So who knows.

If they attack Lauri then that means all of our best help defenders are behind him.

Klay did ok on post-up attempts and thats it

"If they attack Klay then that means all of our best help defenders are behind him" - how did that work out?

[Onus]

I don't think Melton will be able to switch on to bigs as effectively as Klay has been able to. But then again I don't know which players would actually go to the post to take advantage of that. So who knows.

If they attack Lauri then that means all of our best help defenders are behind him.

Klay did ok on post-up attempts and thats it

"If they attack Klay then that means all of our best help defenders are behind him" - how did that work out?

Probably would’ve been fine if he didn’t quit in the middle of the play

[vagelis]

No, it didnt. It did say he should never be a top 2 option, is a very inefficient offensive player, and shouldnt be handling the ball though... matter of fact, the tracking was entirely spot on with regards to Wiggins. Like to the letter

With the first google search in order for you to remember a bit better what the data was saying about Wiggins defense

most catastrophic defender in the league: Andrew Wiggins
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nba-haters-ball/?ex_cid=538twitter

The data are the worst manner to come in conclusions for people who dont understand the game and the context.

Wiggins played for a team that had 2 really bad defenders Lavine and Towns. And people didnt understand that Wiggins was a good defender playing in a bad defensive team

#1 - that was 2 years, 8 months before the trade
#2 - the worst people are those who rush into an argument not knowing what they are saying, and that is not limited to people who misuse data. People who use the first google hit without checking anything behind it, for example
#3 - Wiggins was absolutely a garbage defender coming into the league through at least year 3 and by the looks of it, about half of year 4. Only then did he start getting it. And by the time he was dealt, tracking had him as a positive defender. How do I know? Well I hated the trade when it happened because like most, I heard Wiggins was garbage and thought he was too. I was new to tracking at that time and saw that tracking liked his defensive potential, which shook my faith in tracking. And then about 10 games into his first full year with the Warriors, I understood why tracking thought what it did

A garbage defender cannot become an elite defender all of a sudden.
The coclusions based on data where wrong.
Wiggins was always a good 1vs1 defender(based on the eye test) and he became an elite defender for Warriors.

So, I dont believe the data about Markannen.
He has the tools to play defense and I think he will, if he will be traded to a better defensive team.
He is a 7 footer, agile, athletic and smart.
There is no reason he cannot play defense.

I have not seen Markannen for a lot of games to be 100% sure about my opinion but based of what I have seen he is not a bad defender.

[billinder33]

PG has been universally regarded as a 2/3 his whole career, more 3 than 2 in later years. I've never seen PG listed as a 4 or playing a primary role for any team in that position. Is that a new development I'm not aware of?

Who is the 4 in this starting lineup?

James Harden
Terrence Mann
Kawhi Leonard
Paul George
Ivica Zubac

I would have guessed Kawhi, but I'll readily admit I've not payed that much attention to how the Clippers ran their lineups. If PG really spent most of his time at the 4, it probably explains a lot about why that team underachieved.

Did everyone want PG to come here to play the 4? Was that the expectation? Because I assumed he was slotting into Klay's spot.

[Onus]

PG has been universally regarded as a 2/3 his whole career, more 3 than 2 in later years. I've never seen PG listed as a 4 or playing a primary role for any team in that position. Is that a new development I'm not aware of?

Who is the 4 in this starting lineup?

James Harden
Terrence Mann
Kawhi Leonard
Paul George
Ivica Zubac

I would have guessed Kawhi, but I'll readily admit I've not payed that much attention to how the Clippers ran their lineups. If PG really spent most of his time at the 4, it probably explains a lot about why that team underachieved.

Did everyone want PG to come here to play the 4? Was that the expectation? Because I assumed he was slotting into Klay's spot.

You think a 34 year old is going to be chasing around all the fast guards for 30 min per game?

[CDM_Stats]

I don't think Melton will be able to switch on to bigs as effectively as Klay has been able to. But then again I don't know which players would actually go to the post to take advantage of that. So who knows.

If they attack Lauri then that means all of our best help defenders are behind him.

Klay did ok on post-up attempts and thats it

"If they attack Klay then that means all of our best help defenders are behind him" - how did that work out?

Probably would’ve been fine if he didn’t quit in the middle of the play

lol alright that got an honest laugh but you see what I'm saying... even off-ball, teams can find the soft spot. If Lauri is that soft spot, then we've spent a ton of capital just to upgrade offensively, and that doesnt address the likely issue of why they arent contending

[CDM_Stats]

A garbage defender cannot become an elite defender all of a sudden.
The coclusions based on data where wrong.
Wiggins was always a good 1vs1 defender(based on the eye test) and he became an elite defender for Warriors.

So, I dont believe the data about Markannen.
He has the tools to play defense and I think he will, if he will be traded to a better defensive team.
He is a 7 footer, agile, athletic and smart.
There is no reason he cannot play defense.

I have not seen Markannen for a lot of games to be 100% sure about my opinion but based of what I have seen he is not a bad defender.

All of a sudden? Your article is date 2017, referencing the 16-17 season. 5 years later, in one system only, Wiggins was a borderline elite defender. When he was removed from that perfect role, his effectiveness slipped into being average - in tracking at least. Other metrics were far less kind...and you think this hasnt happened before? Must be too young to know who Chauncey Billups is

The data, which by the way wasn't advanced, or tracking, or anything like it, correctly clocked Wiggins as a bad defender in 16-17. The data I reference, which is tracking, said he could be a good defender, in 19-20. Something he showed signs of in 20-21, and actualized in 21-22. The headline isnt that stats are wrong, its - once again - that people dont know how to use them, and then blame the stats for their inability to use them correctly

Wiggins was not always a good 1 on 1 defender. In fact, early on, he was awful.

All that said,if you dont want to believe the data, that's fine. But thats your fault, thats your inability to see how it works, not the data. Because it exists for a reason - like saying Lauri is agile. Maybe if you look at him through the lens of 7' players only? But problem is, most of them are actual centers who are strong, not ones who float on the perimeter. We could call Bargnani agile by the same standard. And while we're just saying things, there is no reason Zach Lavine cannot play defense. There's no reason Kelly Oubre, James Wiseman, or Jordan Poole cannot play defense. But they don't

[Onus]

Klay did ok on post-up attempts and thats it

"If they attack Klay then that means all of our best help defenders are behind him" - how did that work out?

Probably would’ve been fine if he didn’t quit in the middle of the play

lol alright that got an honest laugh but you see what I'm saying... even off-ball, teams can find the soft spot. If Lauri is that soft spot, then we've spent a ton of capital just to upgrade offensively, and that doesnt address the likely issue of why they arent contending

The thing we haven’t discussed is the offensive impact that will also help our defense stay out of transition because we’re scoring more efficiently. Some of our bad defense can be attributed to our bad offense. Turnovers and bad shots leading to run outs.

I’m probably way off about this but I think Lauri might make our offense better than Kd did. Like Kd is better in a vacuum because he can do things in isolation but that isolation came at a cost. Whereas Lauri will be able to keep the offense moving and is a better screener.

*Edit I'm most definitely talking about that 2019 season when KD wanted more isos

I haven’t looked at Lauri’s clutch metrics but bill simmons said he was really good in the clutch and from what I remember they did get a lot of good shots when he got involved in actions down the stretch. He also made a lot of big shots.

[clyde21]

PG has been universally regarded as a 2/3 his whole career, more 3 than 2 in later years. I've never seen PG listed as a 4 or playing a primary role for any team in that position. Is that a new development I'm not aware of?

Who is the 4 in this starting lineup?

James Harden
Terrence Mann
Kawhi Leonard
Paul George
Ivica Zubac

I would have guessed Kawhi, but I'll readily admit I've not payed that much attention to how the Clippers ran their lineups. If PG really spent most of his time at the 4, it probably explains a lot about why that team underachieved.

Did everyone want PG to come here to play the 4? Was that the expectation? Because I assumed he was slotting into Klay's spot.

you don't have to guess dog, we have the data. it was PF. he played over 80% of possessions last season at the 4. over the course of his career he's played 18% of all possessions at the 4 vs. only 13% at the 2, and majority of those minutes that he played at the 2 happened very early in his career in jumbo type of lineups when the Pacers had Hibbert/West at the 5/4 and Granger/George at the wings.

[vagelis]

A garbage defender cannot become an elite defender all of a sudden.
The coclusions based on data where wrong.
Wiggins was always a good 1vs1 defender(based on the eye test) and he became an elite defender for Warriors.

So, I dont believe the data about Markannen.
He has the tools to play defense and I think he will, if he will be traded to a better defensive team.
He is a 7 footer, agile, athletic and smart.
There is no reason he cannot play defense.

I have not seen Markannen for a lot of games to be 100% sure about my opinion but based of what I have seen he is not a bad defender.

All of a sudden? Your article is date 2017, referencing the 16-17 season. 5 years later, in one system only, Wiggins was a borderline elite defender. When he was removed from that perfect role, his effectiveness slipped into being average - in tracking at least. Other metrics were far less kind...and you think this hasnt happened before? Must be too young to know who Chauncey Billups is

The data, which by the way wasn't advanced, or tracking, or anything like it, correctly clocked Wiggins as a bad defender in 16-17. The data I reference, which is tracking, said he could be a good defender, in 19-20. Something he showed signs of in 20-21, and actualized in 21-22. The headline isnt that stats are wrong, its - once again - that people dont know how to use them, and then blame the stats for their inability to use them correctly

Wiggins was not always a good 1 on 1 defender. In fact, early on, he was awful.

All that said,if you dont want to believe the data, that's fine. But thats your fault, thats your inability to see how it works, not the data. Because it exists for a reason - like saying Lauri is agile. Maybe if you look at him through the lens of 7' players only? But problem is, most of them are actual centers who are strong, not ones who float on the perimeter. We could call Bargnani agile by the same standard. And while we're just saying things, there is no reason Zach Lavine cannot play defense. There's no reason Kelly Oubre, James Wiseman, or Jordan Poole cannot play defense. But they don't

The data have to do with the teams the roles and the systems not only with the players that is what I am saying.
You cannot judge a player from the data.
Wiggins data were affected from these facts during the seasons 2016, 2017, 2020, 2022 etc.
So, is about for every player.

It is harder to try to analyze a player with the eye test. Data is the easy way.
There is for sure a reason for every player who cannot do something.
The main tools to play defense are lateral quickness and the strength of the base (there are plenty other tools that contribute but I will not refer to them now).

Lavine is a bad defender because of lack of both of them.
That is the same for Towns.

Wiseman lacks mainly the strength of the base and a bit of lateral quickness, the same for Poole.

Wiggins always had the lateral quickness and the strong core. Thats why he was always a good 1vs1 defender.
He became a better team defender with the years