Hot hand thread

Post #81 » by **Klomp** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:18 am

Monte Morris has never missed a shot in a Timberwolves uniform. Definition of hot hand.

KGdaBom · Post #82 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:23 am

Klomp wrote:Monte Morris has never missed a shot in a Timberwolves uniform. Definition of hot hand.

KGdaBom · Post #83 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:23 am

Ant 3 misses in a row. Cold hand.

m2002brian · Post #84 » by **m2002brian** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:24 am

KGdaBom wrote:Ant 3 misses in a row. Cold hand.

His left hand is 1-1

KGdaBom · Post #85 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:24 am

George went 1-4 cold hand then made his next shot.

KGdaBom · Post #86 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:25 am

Conley 1-4 cold hand.

KGdaBom · Post #87 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:26 am

Harden 1-2 since cold hand.

KGdaBom · Post #88 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:28 am

Harden makes his next shot. Cold hand failed as predictor. So far tonight's game hot/cold predictions 0-4 added to the Dallas/OKC games 0-5 hot/cold hand is 0-9 as predictor.

KGdaBom · Post #89 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:31 am

Kawhi 1-3 since hot hand. Prediction failed. 0-5 predictor.

KGdaBom · Post #90 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:32 am

NAW 3-4 hot hand.

KGdaBom · Post #91 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:33 am

Ant makes first shot after cold hand.

m2002brian · Post #92 » by **m2002brian** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:34 am

KGdaBom wrote:Ant makes first shot after cold hand.

Left hand is 2 for 2

KGdaBom · Post #93 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:34 am

Ant misses next shot.

KGdaBom · Post #94 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:35 am

m2002brian wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:Ant makes first shot after cold hand.

Left hand is 2 for 2

If you want to do your own tracking and sort by which hand go for it. I'm having a hard time keeping up now.

KGdaBom · Post #95 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:37 am

I'm going to stop now. If I had placed 10 bets on players with hot hands and cold hands continuing I would have lost all 10 bets. It isn't reliable as a predictor.

winforlose · Post #96 » by **winforlose** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:45 am

KGdaBom wrote:I'm going to stop now. If I had placed 10 bets on players with hot hands and cold hands continuing I would have lost all 10 bets. It isn't reliable as a predictor.

Your model is so flawed I honestly don’t even know what you are following. I have been enjoying the game, rather than trying to track shots after 3 or 4 attempts. You want cold hand example, Karl is 1-5 from deep. Miss 3 hit 1 miss 1 is not a sign of cold hand being bad at prediction, it is the sign of a cold hand. Just like a hot hand can hit 3, miss 1 and hit the next and still be hot. This isn’t rocket science.

KGdaBom · Post #97 » by **KGdaBom** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:53 am

winforlose wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:I'm going to stop now. If I had placed 10 bets on players with hot hands and cold hands continuing I would have lost all 10 bets. It isn't reliable as a predictor.

Your model is so flawed I honestly don’t even know what you are following. I have been enjoying the game, rather than trying to track shots after 3 or 4 attempts. You want cold hand example, Karl is 1-5 from deep. Miss 3 hit 1 miss 1 is not a sign of cold hand being bad at prediction, it is the sign of a cold hand. Just like a hot hand can hit 3, miss 1 and hit the next and still be hot. This isn’t rocket science.

No flaw to my model. I'm counting all shots. If a player makes 3 out of 4 will they continue to shoot over 50%. No they won't. If they miss 3 out of 4 will they continue to shoot under 50%. No they won't. You actually think you can rely on hot and cold hands to help win games? No you can't.

KGdaBom · Post #98 » by **KGdaBom** » Sun Mar 31, 2024 5:30 pm

Happy Easter/Resurrection day. I didn't know where to put this message so what the hell. Put it here.

Watch on YouTube

m2002brian · Post #99 » by **m2002brian** » Wed Jul 17, 2024 8:00 pm

I was just meandering along the aisles of YouTube and behold this gem:

Watch on YouTube

frankenwolf · Post #100 » by **frankenwolf** » Thu Jul 18, 2024 5:52 pm

Thanks Brian for bringing this thread back to my attention. W4L & KG, you guys are arguing the same thing, except KG wants to make is a possibly predictive thing and W4L is saying it can't be, just let the one who is made the last two shots shoot again. If he misses, you don't feed him and if he makes it, feed him again. You are both saying you can't count on it lasting and KG has proved that it doesn't last longer than 4 or five shots.

Thanks to all who positively contributed and there is definitely a phenomenon of a "hot hand", but it is variable and unpredictable.