Why The Raptors Should Explore Trading Jakob Poeltl To The Knicks

[PoundTown]

Don't trade Poeltl without getting a competent center back. His contract is going to be great value at $20 M if he can sustain his level of play and he has three years left.

[Scase]

Jakob Poeltl is not the difference between us being a play-in team and not

I seriously implore you: Look at the absolute dregs that are the East Conference bottom feeders and tell me how taxing Poeltl is the difference between being 9/10 and out of that race. Unless the Hornets with a healthy LaMelo also get a healthy Mark Williams, I do not see a world where any of the bottom 6-7 teams are in that race. And again - that's just the teams in the East. The Spurs and Blazers will probably still be bad,enough to be in the race for a spot in that below-Play-In lottery spot.

Again: Don't rule out Poeltl being traded if the offer is too stupid to pass up but you don't trade him for the sake of it. Especially if you don't get back a center prospect for him which, given the list of likely suitors, seems unlikely.

I posted it previously in this thread, but if you take a look at our w/l record last year vs the exact teams we think are the bottom dwellers, we are squeezing out maybe another 2 or 3 wins compared to last year. We are not a good team, we aren't going to be series sweeping them, we will be roughly where we were last year, while the good teams vastly outnumber the bad teams, and they have gotten better. We went 11-40 against above .500 teams last year, and 14-17 against sub .500 teams. We definitely aren't likely to get any more wins against good teams, if anything we drop a couple more. As for bad teams, at best some of them go from 2-2 last year, to 3-1, but it's not like we are skyrocketing up the charts.

The problem is, that the bottom of the league is likely going to be bunched together rather tightly and the extra couple wins we'd end up with due to having Jak, is probably going to be the difference between a 5/6th finish, and an 8-10 finish. Not worth the loss of lotto odds.

No one thinks Jak is the difference between a .500 team and a 20 win team. Well maybe a couple posters, but they also think this team is easily a 41+ win team.

I'm not for trading Poeltl yet except if there is an overpay, and I am certainly not for giving him away - i.e. discarding his value just for a few more lottery balls. Those who want to trade him now for a bunch of bananas are in contradiction - either he has value enough to add wins, in which case he has a use going forward if only for a timely trade (which I believe is correct) or he is a throwaway, in which case trading him not only doesn't improve our lottery odds, it might mean being saddled with a bad contract beyond the coming season. And of course, drafting from the 10th position in a good draft can yield you a very good pickup like Derrick Lively. And even a top 5 pick in a really good draft can yield you a helluva a player, but not necessarily that superstar we all crave. Scottie's draft for example. Scottie, Cade, Mobley, Green, Suggs, Wagner, Kuminga, Sengun... they all look like very good players, potential all-stars, but none yet screams top 5 superstar. Wagner at 8 might be just as good long-term as Green, the #2 pick.

How are you so close to getting the point, yet still missing it.

The team doesn't go anywhere with a Derrick Lively. The team also doesn't go anywhere with the aforementioned " they all look like very good players, potential all-stars, but none yet screams top 5 superstar". The team needs the top 5 superstar type player, and guuuueeeeesssss what?

The players at the top of the 25 draft, are looking to have that potential. Hence the reason people want to go for a high draft pick. Jak has value, but not to this team. The same way Siakam had value, but not to this team, so we traded him.

The difference being that Siakam was too expensive for what he provided, and Jak is a player a rebuilding team doesn't need. this is not a difficult concept, we literally JUST dealt with this situation like 7 months ago.

[PhilBlackson]

It's a joke that people are prioritising Yak's "trade return" over our standings in the draft.

I can promise you there is no return for Poeltl that will even come close to being as valuable as our pick being in the top 7 or so of the 25' draft and that's the bottomline of this all.

Holding on to Poeltl because you want an extra 2nd rounder (at best a late 1st) or some mid young player to be included in a trade package isn't changing the damn trajectory of the team lol. Adding a top 7 or so in this 25' draft however, could potentially put the franchise into a completely different stratosphere for the next decade.

[dagger]

It's a joke that people are prioritising Yak's "trade return" over our standings in the draft.

I can promise you there is no return for Poeltl that will even come close to being as valuable as our pick being in the top 7 or so of the 25' draft and that's the bottomline of this all.

Holding on to Poeltl because you want an extra 2nd rounder (at best a late 1st) or some mid young player to be included in a trade package isn't changing the damn trajectory of the team lol. Adding a top 7 or so in this 25' draft however, could potentially put the franchise into a completely different stratosphere for the next decade.

32.5 wins as our betting line is sixth or seventh worst, even with the Nets swan dive to the bottom. So trading Poeltl for bupkis gets us what, sixth worst, maybe stuck with a bad contract as well beyond the coming season? You haven't a case for that.

Draftkings has Toronto at 31.5 wins - sixth worst, with Poeltl. I don't think we need to go out of our way to be bad and to teach losing habits to our young players. Maybe we're seventh worst if Chicago is on the list. Or maybe not.

Boston Celtics – 57.5 (-115/-105)
Oklahoma City Thunder – 54.5 (-110/-110)
Denver Nuggets – 52.5 (-115/-105)
Minnesota Timberwolves – 52.5 (-115/-105)
Milwaukee Bucks – 51.5 (+100/-120)
New York Knicks – 51.5 (-115/-105)
Philadelphia 76ers – 51.5 (-115/-105)
Dallas Mavericks – 50.5 (-105/-115)
Orlando Magic – 47.5 (-110/-110)
Cleveland Cavaliers – 47.5 (-110/-110)
Phoenix Suns – 46.5 (-115/-105)
Memphis Grizzlies – 46.5 (-105/-115)
New Orleans Pelicans – 45.5 (-110/-110)
Indiana Pacers – 45.5 (-110/-110)
Sacramento Kings – 45.5 (-125/+105)
Miami Heat – 44.5 (-110/-110)
Los Angeles Lakers – 44.5 (-115/-105)
Los Angeles Clippers – 41.5 (-105/-115)
Houston Rockets – 41.5 (-120/+100)
San Antonio Spurs – 35.5 (-115/-105)
Atlanta Hawks – 34.5 (-120/+100)
Toronto Raptors – 31.5 (-105/-115)
Charlotte Hornets – 29.5 (-115/-105)
Detroit Pistons – 24.5 (-105/-115)
Portland Trail Blazers – 22.5 (+100/-120)
Washington Wizards – 22.5 (+105/-125)
Brooklyn Nets – 19.5 (-110/-110)

[agkagk]

Injury prone, probably slightly negative value mitchell, plus sims, plus overpaying with futures makes sense for the knicks.

Championship window teams need to be more aggressive trading for high end role players.

I mean brown russell lbj ad jakub would have probably made the finals this past season!

[Gavin_TDThree]

Knicks and NO seem like the two most obvious teams that need a starting quality C. If we trade Jakob though we are full blown tanking (which I don't hate). If we run KO as our starting C we are going to look awesome on offence and brutal on defence which again isn't all that bad. This 2025 draft is worth having another down year.

Then go into 2025-2026 with the goal of making the playoffs

[OakleyDokely]

It's a joke that people are prioritising Yak's "trade return" over our standings in the draft.

I can promise you there is no return for Poeltl that will even come close to being as valuable as our pick being in the top 7 or so of the 25' draft and that's the bottomline of this all.

Holding on to Poeltl because you want an extra 2nd rounder (at best a late 1st) or some mid young player to be included in a trade package isn't changing the damn trajectory of the team lol. Adding a top 7 or so in this 25' draft however, could potentially put the franchise into a completely different stratosphere for the next decade.

32.5 wins as our betting line is sixth or seventh worst, even with the Nets swan dive to the bottom. So trading Poeltl for bupkis gets us what, sixth worst, maybe stuck with a bad contract as well beyond the coming season? You haven't a case for that.

Draftkings has Toronto at 31.5 wins - sixth worst, with Poeltl. I don't think we need to go out of our way to be bad and to teach losing habits to our young players. Maybe we're seventh worst if Chicago is on the list. Or maybe not.

Boston Celtics – 57.5 (-115/-105)
Oklahoma City Thunder – 54.5 (-110/-110)
Denver Nuggets – 52.5 (-115/-105)
Minnesota Timberwolves – 52.5 (-115/-105)
Milwaukee Bucks – 51.5 (+100/-120)
New York Knicks – 51.5 (-115/-105)
Philadelphia 76ers – 51.5 (-115/-105)
Dallas Mavericks – 50.5 (-105/-115)
Orlando Magic – 47.5 (-110/-110)
Cleveland Cavaliers – 47.5 (-110/-110)
Phoenix Suns – 46.5 (-115/-105)
Memphis Grizzlies – 46.5 (-105/-115)
New Orleans Pelicans – 45.5 (-110/-110)
Indiana Pacers – 45.5 (-110/-110)
Sacramento Kings – 45.5 (-125/+105)
Miami Heat – 44.5 (-110/-110)
Los Angeles Lakers – 44.5 (-115/-105)
Los Angeles Clippers – 41.5 (-105/-115)
Houston Rockets – 41.5 (-120/+100)
San Antonio Spurs – 35.5 (-115/-105)
Atlanta Hawks – 34.5 (-120/+100)
Toronto Raptors – 31.5 (-105/-115)
Charlotte Hornets – 29.5 (-115/-105)
Detroit Pistons – 24.5 (-105/-115)
Portland Trail Blazers – 22.5 (+100/-120)
Washington Wizards – 22.5 (+105/-125)
Brooklyn Nets – 19.5 (-110/-110)

I'm of the same mindset. There's a pretty big gap between the top 20 or so teams and the bottom 10 that trading one or two guys won't make much of a difference in our draft position. We will comfortably be in the bottom 10 as currently constructed unless we see major improvements from key guys and more than likely we will be in the bottom 7/8 as is. We saw last year that tanking after the Barnes injury only resulted in a 1 spot improvement because the teams at the very bottom are very bad and that's unlikely to change this season.

If we really want to compete for a top 4 pick, we'd need to be more aggressive and look to trade guys like Barnes, IQ, Barrett as well, but that's not going to happen. Otherwise, I expect us to be in that 6-8 range with no changes because they will be playing a lot of youth in key roles.

[Tacoma]

It's a joke that people are prioritising Yak's "trade return" over our standings in the draft.

I can promise you there is no return for Poeltl that will even come close to being as valuable as our pick being in the top 7 or so of the 25' draft and that's the bottomline of this all.

Holding on to Poeltl because you want an extra 2nd rounder (at best a late 1st) or some mid young player to be included in a trade package isn't changing the damn trajectory of the team lol. Adding a top 7 or so in this 25' draft however, could potentially put the franchise into a completely different stratosphere for the next decade.

32.5 wins as our betting line is sixth or seventh worst, even with the Nets swan dive to the bottom. So trading Poeltl for bupkis gets us what, sixth worst, maybe stuck with a bad contract as well beyond the coming season? You haven't a case for that.

Draftkings has Toronto at 31.5 wins - sixth worst, with Poeltl. I don't think we need to go out of our way to be bad and to teach losing habits to our young players. Maybe we're seventh worst if Chicago is on the list. Or maybe not...

I'm of the same mindset. There's a pretty big gap between the top 20 or so teams and the bottom 10 that trading one or two guys won't make much of a difference in our draft position. We will comfortably be in the bottom 10 as currently constructed unless we see major improvements from key guys and more than likely we will be in the bottom 7/8 as is. We saw last year that tanking after the Barnes injury only resulted in a 1 spot improvement because the teams at the very bottom are very bad and that's unlikely to change this season...

It was only a 1 spot improvement because the Barnes injury happened in March on the 60th game - realistically too late to start the tank. In retrospect, we got lucky the late tank failed because now we get to keep our 2025 pick.

As for the so-called bottom 10, these teams likely drafts in the top 10 & if there's one area in the draft where even one spot improvement may matter, it's in the Top 10. If you're a good at drafting like Masai, you don't want the team drafting just ahead of you taking your guy. So I'm not of the same mindset that it won't make a difference.

As for the notion that we want to keep Poeltl so as not to "teach losing habits to our young players," I would argue good players will develop regardless. Barnes became ROY before Poeltl and Dick had a challenging year with Poeltl. If Poeltl were a floor general C like Jokić, I would sing a different tune. He's not. If trading Poeltl means moving up a spot in the 2025 draft, then you go for it.

[OakleyDokely]

32.5 wins as our betting line is sixth or seventh worst, even with the Nets swan dive to the bottom. So trading Poeltl for bupkis gets us what, sixth worst, maybe stuck with a bad contract as well beyond the coming season? You haven't a case for that.

Draftkings has Toronto at 31.5 wins - sixth worst, with Poeltl. I don't think we need to go out of our way to be bad and to teach losing habits to our young players. Maybe we're seventh worst if Chicago is on the list. Or maybe not...

I'm of the same mindset. There's a pretty big gap between the top 20 or so teams and the bottom 10 that trading one or two guys won't make much of a difference in our draft position. We will comfortably be in the bottom 10 as currently constructed unless we see major improvements from key guys and more than likely we will be in the bottom 7/8 as is. We saw last year that tanking after the Barnes injury only resulted in a 1 spot improvement because the teams at the very bottom are very bad and that's unlikely to change this season...

It was only a 1 spot improvement because the Barnes injury happened in March on the 60th game - realistically too late to start the tank. In retrospect, we got lucky the late tank failed because now we get to keep our 2025 pick.

As for the so-called bottom 10, these teams likely drafts in the top 10 & if there's one area in the draft where even one spot improvement may matter, it's in the Top 10. If you're a good at drafting like Masai, you don't want the team drafting just ahead of you taking your guy. So I'm not of the same mindset that it won't make a difference.

As for the notion that we want to keep Poeltl so as not to "teach losing habits to our young players," I would argue good players will develop regardless. Barnes became ROY before Poeltl and Dick had a challenging year with Poeltl. If Poeltl were a floor general C like Jokić, I would sing a different tune. He's not. If trading Poeltl means moving up a spot in the 2025 draft, then you go for it.

I don't really care about Poeltl overall, I just wouldn't make bad moves just so we can pick 6-7 instead of 8-9. If a deal makes sense for the long term future of the club, do it.

[Scase]

I'm of the same mindset. There's a pretty big gap between the top 20 or so teams and the bottom 10 that trading one or two guys won't make much of a difference in our draft position. We will comfortably be in the bottom 10 as currently constructed unless we see major improvements from key guys and more than likely we will be in the bottom 7/8 as is. We saw last year that tanking after the Barnes injury only resulted in a 1 spot improvement because the teams at the very bottom are very bad and that's unlikely to change this season...

It was only a 1 spot improvement because the Barnes injury happened in March on the 60th game - realistically too late to start the tank. In retrospect, we got lucky the late tank failed because now we get to keep our 2025 pick.

As for the so-called bottom 10, these teams likely drafts in the top 10 & if there's one area in the draft where even one spot improvement may matter, it's in the Top 10. If you're a good at drafting like Masai, you don't want the team drafting just ahead of you taking your guy. So I'm not of the same mindset that it won't make a difference.

As for the notion that we want to keep Poeltl so as not to "teach losing habits to our young players," I would argue good players will develop regardless. Barnes became ROY before Poeltl and Dick had a challenging year with Poeltl. If Poeltl were a floor general C like Jokić, I would sing a different tune. He's not. If trading Poeltl means moving up a spot in the 2025 draft, then you go for it.

I don't really care about Poeltl overall, I just wouldn't make bad moves just so we can pick 6-7 instead of 8-9. If a deal makes sense for the long term future of the club, do it.

Getting that pick is for the long term. No one is saying trade Jak and take back terrible contracts for it, but rather we don't need to maximize his value or keep him. He is not worth the chance at drafting a player that would be 10x as good as him. Finding a mid tier centre is a hell of a lot easier, than a top tier scoring prospect.

All team building is the same, you get that #1 option and fill out the team after. You don't secure players like Jak, KO, Sasha, etc before that. They are a dime a dozen.

[Duffman100]

I also see a reasonable scenario where you sell Poeltl for pennies on the dollar, lose more, have bad lottery luck, fall out of the top tier like Detroit.

Then everyone turns and talks about bad asset management and selling Poeltl for nothing.

[OakleyDokely]

It was only a 1 spot improvement because the Barnes injury happened in March on the 60th game - realistically too late to start the tank. In retrospect, we got lucky the late tank failed because now we get to keep our 2025 pick.

As for the so-called bottom 10, these teams likely drafts in the top 10 & if there's one area in the draft where even one spot improvement may matter, it's in the Top 10. If you're a good at drafting like Masai, you don't want the team drafting just ahead of you taking your guy. So I'm not of the same mindset that it won't make a difference.

As for the notion that we want to keep Poeltl so as not to "teach losing habits to our young players," I would argue good players will develop regardless. Barnes became ROY before Poeltl and Dick had a challenging year with Poeltl. If Poeltl were a floor general C like Jokić, I would sing a different tune. He's not. If trading Poeltl means moving up a spot in the 2025 draft, then you go for it.

I don't really care about Poeltl overall, I just wouldn't make bad moves just so we can pick 6-7 instead of 8-9. If a deal makes sense for the long term future of the club, do it.

Getting that pick is for the long term. No one is saying trade Jak and take back terrible contracts for it, but rather we don't need to maximize his value or keep him. He is not worth the chance at drafting a player that would be 10x as good as him. Finding a mid tier centre is a hell of a lot easier, than a top tier scoring prospect.

All team building is the same, you get that #1 option and fill out the team after. You don't secure players like Jak, KO, Sasha, etc before that. They are a dime a dozen.

I have no idea what the market is for Poeltl, whether we'd get solid value or have to take some bad deals back. The market for players around 10-25M doesn't seem so hot right now and most contenders don't have much wiggle room.

I already see this team as a good bet for a top 10 pick so there's no need to make bad deals, especially when there's a draft lottery.

[CazOnReal]

I also see a reasonable scenario where you sell Poeltl for pennies on the dollar, lose more, have bad lottery luck, fall out of the top tier like Detroit.

Then everyone turns and talks about bad asset management and selling Poeltl for nothing.

Why does Masai not simply fleece every team for Bruce Brown/Jakob Poeltl and also win the lottery?

Is he stupid?

[WhatsaTDot]

I also see a reasonable scenario where you sell Poeltl for pennies on the dollar, lose more, have bad lottery luck, fall out of the top tier like Detroit.

Then everyone turns and talks about bad asset management and selling Poeltl for nothing.

If he wanted to please everyone, he should become an ice cream truck driver.

"We took a direction that we thought was the best for the long term of the team. It didnt work out as we had hoped" is not a message all that different than we received this past post season debrief.

[Scase]

I also see a reasonable scenario where you sell Poeltl for pennies on the dollar, lose more, have bad lottery luck, fall out of the top tier like Detroit.

Then everyone turns and talks about bad asset management and selling Poeltl for nothing.

Why does Masai not simply fleece every team for Bruce Brown/Jakob Poeltl and also win the lottery?

Is he stupid?

Better yet, why does he simply not make bad trades in the first place. It's not stupid to be unable to effectively erase a mistake, it's stupid to have made such a blatant one in the first place.

Saying "Well we cant trade him, cause then we might lose value", welcome to the land of the sunk cost fallacy. If the purpose is to take a step back, the aim isn't to maximize value. You aren't trading him to get the most back as you can, that is not the goal. The goal is to set yourself up for a stacked draft instead of floundering in a 2 inch puddle of water.

Again, this FO falls to the same thing it has for years, not picking a lane/path/plan/etc. What they have done thus far is attempt to be as versatile as possible by being both ready to develop and try and compete at a moments notice, and they will fail at both.

[Tripod]

I also see a reasonable scenario where you sell Poeltl for pennies on the dollar, lose more, have bad lottery luck, fall out of the top tier like Detroit.

Then everyone turns and talks about bad asset management and selling Poeltl for nothing.

Why does Masai not simply fleece every team for Bruce Brown/Jakob Poeltl and also win the lottery?

Is he stupid?

Better yet, why does he simply not make bad trades in the first place. It's not stupid to be unable to effectively erase a mistake, it's stupid to have made such a blatant one in the first place.

Saying "Well we cant trade him, cause then we might lose value", welcome to the land of the sunk cost fallacy. If the purpose is to take a step back, the aim isn't to maximize value. You aren't trading him to get the most back as you can, that is not the goal. The goal is to set yourself up for a stacked draft instead of floundering in a 2 inch puddle of water.

Again, this FO falls to the same thing it has for years, not picking a lane/path/plan/etc. What they have done thus far is attempt to be as versatile as possible by being both ready to develop and try and compete at a moments notice, and they will fail at both.

You should run your own team considering you have all the answers and would win every trade and every decision would be the correct one.

Maybe start with the WNBA

[Los_29]

Why does Masai not simply fleece every team for Bruce Brown/Jakob Poeltl and also win the lottery?

Is he stupid?

Better yet, why does he simply not make bad trades in the first place. It's not stupid to be unable to effectively erase a mistake, it's stupid to have made such a blatant one in the first place.

Saying "Well we cant trade him, cause then we might lose value", welcome to the land of the sunk cost fallacy. If the purpose is to take a step back, the aim isn't to maximize value. You aren't trading him to get the most back as you can, that is not the goal. The goal is to set yourself up for a stacked draft instead of floundering in a 2 inch puddle of water.

Again, this FO falls to the same thing it has for years, not picking a lane/path/plan/etc. What they have done thus far is attempt to be as versatile as possible by being both ready to develop and try and compete at a moments notice, and they will fail at both.

You should run your own team considering you have all the answers and would win every trade and every decision would be the correct one.

Maybe start with the WNBA

His negativity is truly a sight to behold. He believes he has all the answers in terms of team building and yet no team follows his strategies.

I can’t believe what I’m reading on here.

[Scase]

Why does Masai not simply fleece every team for Bruce Brown/Jakob Poeltl and also win the lottery?

Is he stupid?

Better yet, why does he simply not make bad trades in the first place. It's not stupid to be unable to effectively erase a mistake, it's stupid to have made such a blatant one in the first place.

Saying "Well we cant trade him, cause then we might lose value", welcome to the land of the sunk cost fallacy. If the purpose is to take a step back, the aim isn't to maximize value. You aren't trading him to get the most back as you can, that is not the goal. The goal is to set yourself up for a stacked draft instead of floundering in a 2 inch puddle of water.

Again, this FO falls to the same thing it has for years, not picking a lane/path/plan/etc. What they have done thus far is attempt to be as versatile as possible by being both ready to develop and try and compete at a moments notice, and they will fail at both.

You should run your own team considering you have all the answers and would win every trade and every decision would be the correct one.

Maybe start with the WNBA

Boy oh boy I love these brilliant posts, keep it up!

[CazOnReal]

You should run your own team considering you have all the answers and would win every trade and every decision would be the correct one.

Maybe start with the WNBA

His negativity is truly a sight to behold. He believes he has all the answers in terms of team building and yet no team follows his strategies.

I can’t believe what I’m reading on here.

It takes a big brain IQ to know that trading Poeltl = good even if the return is bad and we end up with, like, the 9th pick after making the play-in since the rest of the East's bottom feeders are just that bad. Trade Poeltl good, no trad Poeltl bad.

The Nets might just be the worst team in the NBA next season, and by a wide mile at that. But no trade Poeltl bad.

[Scase]

You should run your own team considering you have all the answers and would win every trade and every decision would be the correct one.

Maybe start with the WNBA

His negativity is truly a sight to behold. He believes he has all the answers in terms of team building and yet no team follows his strategies.

I can’t believe what I’m reading on here.

It takes a big brain IQ to know that trading Poeltl = good even if the return is bad and we end up with, like, the 9th pick after making the play-in since the rest of the East's bottom feeders are just that bad. Trade Poeltl good, no trad Poeltl bad.

The Nets might just be the worst team in the NBA next season, and by a wide mile at that. But no trade Poeltl bad.

Must take an even bigger brain IQ to just make up arguments that someone has never made. But I guess I'll just leave that up to you, since I'm just not smart enough I guess.