Julius Randle's value

[BowlRips]

Alot of consternation on what the trade value of Julius Randle is.
Randle is making $28.9m this year and has a player option of $30m next year.
Randle becomes extension eligible on Aug 3rd, with his max offer being 4/181 - $45m AAV.

What do you think the FMW of Randle's next contract is?
I think this could help solve alot of peoples thoughts on how he should be valued.
Let's not forget his resume. 3x All-Star and 2x All-NBA

[Colbinii]

I would extend Randle and then figure out what to do after he extends in terms of long-term fit. He is a good player, he can impact winning and does a lot of things on the court.

Most players who sniff an All-Star get paid the Max now, Randle has done it 3x.

[Godaddycurse]

I would extend Randle and then figure out what to do after he extends in terms of long-term fit. He is a good player, he can impact winning and does a lot of things on the court.

Most players who sniff an All-Star get paid the Max now, Randle has done it 3x.

unless you're derozan and stink it up repeatedly in playoffs... i fear randle may be getting the same label. floor raiser but doesn't affect ceiling

[jbk1234]

I think he's far easier to move as a potential expiring than on an extension. Alternatively, the Knicks should see if he can play some minutes at center with O.G. and/or Bridges helping out defensively.

[Texas Chuck]

yeah his utter lack of playoff success has me in no rush to extend him now. I've heard all the explanations for why he's been so bad, but the bottom line is we don't have another player in the league whose play has dropped off as far as he has every time he's been in the playoffs.

That happens again after you give him a max extension and you are stuck with a player who caps your ceiling. I wouldn't do that to myself.

And he if balls out, well you've apparently already decided you are okay with maxing him so he didn't get any more expensive on you.

But there are specifics about his game that explain why he's been so much better in the RS and struggles against the best teams/coaches/defenses. It's not just injuries/no help.

[babyjax13]

There isn't an easy match for a Villanova player they can trade him for, either.

[clippertown]

Clippers want Randle and have Norman Powell, Terrance Mann, PJ Tucker and Bones Hyland as bait. Not sure how it gets done.

[HotelVitale]

Most players who sniff an All-Star get paid the Max now, Randle has done it 3x.

Think this is off. Big deals are being given weirdly liberally specifically to two-way guys who are versatile. Guys like OG, Bridges, D White, J Brown etc are being hugely valued by teams, as players who can slot into many lineups and elevate teams in different ways despite not being big time lead scorers. But problematic or limited lead scorers are having a hard time being wanted, no matter how AS-ish they are. Lavine, Derozan, and Ingram come to mind, all unquestionably reliable high volume guys in the RS that teams don’t really trust to carry them in the PO.

I’d put Randle as more concerning (or at least not confidence inducing) in the PO than all 3 of the other guys, and I honestly don’t know that his market would be better than Derozan’s. Bad teams don’t want him and good teams don’t trust him, not seeing who would drive his FA market up.

[HornetJail]

I don't think it's a coincidence New York made a deep run with him out of action. I'd be surprised if he got an extension. it would be a better idea to see if he can get acclimated to what's an almost entirely new team since the last time he was in uniform. Hasn't played with Bridges, only a handful of overlapping games with OG, Hart only took the leap after Randle went down... and so on.

I don't expect Randle to be a Knick next February.

[Colbinii]

I would extend Randle and then figure out what to do after he extends in terms of long-term fit. He is a good player, he can impact winning and does a lot of things on the court.

Most players who sniff an All-Star get paid the Max now, Randle has done it 3x.

unless you're derozan and stink it up repeatedly in playoffs... i fear randle may be getting the same label. floor raiser but doesn't affect ceiling

Towns stunk it up until he has an actual semblance of team around him and had a very productive post-season and became a 2-way player.

I think it's important to contextualize when Top 50-ish players, being thrust into #1 option roles on a playoff team, probably aren't producing results.

[Colbinii]

I don't think it's a coincidence New York made a deep run with him out of action. I'd be surprised if he got an extension. it would be a better idea to see if he can get acclimated to what's an almost entirely new team since the last time he was in uniform. Hasn't played with Bridges, only a handful of overlapping games with OG, Hart only took the leap after Randle went down... and so on.

I don't expect Randle to be a Knick next February.

A deep run? They made the 2nd round, just like the year prior with Randle.

They easily lose in the 1st round if Embiid is > 75% healthy.

Hell this Knicks team likely loses to Cleveland in 2023 in the 1st round.

[JayTWill]

I don't think it's a coincidence New York made a deep run with him out of action. I'd be surprised if he got an extension. it would be a better idea to see if he can get acclimated to what's an almost entirely new team since the last time he was in uniform. Hasn't played with Bridges, only a handful of overlapping games with OG, Hart only took the leap after Randle went down... and so on.

I don't expect Randle to be a Knick next February.

I'm one of the Knicks' fans that questions his fit and if he raises the ceiling of the team but as pointed out they made it to the second round with him last year too. I wonder if his salary could be spent better elsewhere but unfortunately I don't know if there are any possible trades available to improve the team centered around Randle and they won't have cap space if they let him walk until possibly 2027.

Also Hart looked incredible when traded to the Knicks last year with Randle healthy and he looked absolutely terrible for a few months after Randle got injured this year but he did improve at the end of the year. He stepped up in the Philly series but they were basically daring him to beat them. Hart didn't show anything that he hasn't shown before in his career other than the ability to play a ton of minutes for Thibs and just had his least efficient season of his career largely because he was forced into a role that was too big for him.

They were 12-2 with him in January before he got injured. I do question how big of a role he played in that since obviously OG was a huge difference maker but this narrative that the team took off after Randle went down is getting a little out of control with some people.

[jbk1234]

I don't think it's a coincidence New York made a deep run with him out of action. I'd be surprised if he got an extension. it would be a better idea to see if he can get acclimated to what's an almost entirely new team since the last time he was in uniform. Hasn't played with Bridges, only a handful of overlapping games with OG, Hart only took the leap after Randle went down... and so on.

I don't expect Randle to be a Knick next February.

A deep run? They made the 2nd round, just like the year prior with Randle.

They easily lose in the 1st round if Embiid is > 75% healthy.

Hell this Knicks team likely loses to Cleveland in 2023 in the 1st round.

Randle's +/- from that series tells a different story.

[MoreyWins]

How many other teams are bidding for Randle and what would they realistically offer?

[Godaddycurse]

I would extend Randle and then figure out what to do after he extends in terms of long-term fit. He is a good player, he can impact winning and does a lot of things on the court.

Most players who sniff an All-Star get paid the Max now, Randle has done it 3x.

unless you're derozan and stink it up repeatedly in playoffs... i fear randle may be getting the same label. floor raiser but doesn't affect ceiling

Towns stunk it up until he has an actual semblance of team around him and had a very productive post-season and became a 2-way player.

I think it's important to contextualize when Top 50-ish players, being thrust into #1 option roles on a playoff team, probably aren't producing results.

right and i think (like TC) its much more prudent to see how he actually does first before handing him a max.

[tester551]

High level role player... possible fringe all-star when things break right.

Can't take over a game, and dominate it. As such, his value should be in the $30-35M range. Players in that same mold have negative value when they get paid more than that.

See Beal, LaVine, VanVleet, MPJ, McCollum, Ayton, Bane, Middleton, etc.... although I would probably put Randle as a better/more impactful player than any of these guys.

[Colbinii]

unless you're derozan and stink it up repeatedly in playoffs... i fear randle may be getting the same label. floor raiser but doesn't affect ceiling

Towns stunk it up until he has an actual semblance of team around him and had a very productive post-season and became a 2-way player.

I think it's important to contextualize when Top 50-ish players, being thrust into #1 option roles on a playoff team, probably aren't producing results.

right and i think (like TC) its much more prudent to see how he actually does first before handing him a max.

Right, which is also why I said to extend him since you can't extend him at the actual Max since he is limited to 140%.

Still, there is a chance he leaves for nothing, and losing a Top 50 guy for nothing is not a good look and poor asset management. If he is unwilling to extend, then you look to trade him.

[Colbinii]

High level role player... possible fringe all-star when things break right.

Can't take over a game, and dominate it. As such, his value should be in the $30-35M range. Players in that same mold have negative value when they get paid more than that.

See Beal, LaVine, VanVleet, MPJ, McCollum, Ayton, Bane, Middleton, etc.... although I would probably put Randle as a better/more impactful player than any of these guys.

I definitely don't consider prime Middleton or Current Bane to be worse than current/peak Randle.

If Randle extends 3/100 New York should 100% do it.

[theBigLip]

Towns stunk it up until he has an actual semblance of team around him and had a very productive post-season and became a 2-way player.

I think it's important to contextualize when Top 50-ish players, being thrust into #1 option roles on a playoff team, probably aren't producing results.

right and i think (like TC) its much more prudent to see how he actually does first before handing him a max.

Right, which is also why I said to extend him since you can't extend him at the actual Max since he is limited to 140%.

Still, there is a chance he leaves for nothing, and losing a Top 50 guy for nothing is not a good look and poor asset management. If he is unwilling to extend, then you look to trade him.

He’s maybe 3rd best on his team. Top 50 is a stretch, although what’s the criteria? Is it just hoops in their current state? Or do age and contract matter?

[OGSactownballer]

Ultimately a healthy Randle is the very scary number two offensive guy in that Knicks team.

And in the end, when your primary guy is an undersized scoring guard (guys who traditionally get beat up badly and often injured in the playoffs), it’s sure a nice thing to know that you have a tank that will easily go for 30/15 against double and triple teams low to open up the driving lanes and pull down the perimeter defense.

I will be very interested to see how this team looks fully healthy on the court against the better teams in the East (BOS, MIL and really ORL) and where they come out overall against that competition.

Ultimately now having lost Hartelstein they are counting an awful lot on Mitchell Robinson to not be the oft injured guy he has been to handle the post in a physical and big East top four. Because the down side to stacking the team with wings is that those guys generally get manhandled in the post by bigger true 4’s and 5’s. That’s where Randles real value will show out.