Projected Total Wins for the 2024-2025 Season

[durden_tyler]

The article is here

East:
BOS 58.5
NYK 53.5
PHI 52.5
MIL 50.5
CLE 47.5
ORL 47.5
IND 46.5
MIA 44.5
ATL 35.5
CHI 30.5
TOR 30.5
CHA 29.5
DET 24.5
WAS 22.5
BK 19.5

West:
OKC 55.5
DEN 52.5
MIN 52.5
DAL 50.5
MEM 47.5
PHO 46.5
SAC 46.5
NOP 45.5
LAL 44.5
GSW 42.5
HOU 42.5
LAC 40.5
SAS 35.5
UTA 28.5
POR 21.5

My over bets: Pistons, Lakers and Grizzlies
My under bets: OKC and DEN

Questions marks:
Ingram in Pelicans, if he's traded for a good center, Pelicans should go over easily.
UTA/TOR: I have no clue, they aren't PO team, but they can win high 30s, depends whether they tank, which they may decide or decide to start building winning culture...

Likely Unders and surely will pound them when it’s available in my book:

Lakers 44.5
Warriors 42.5
Clippers 40.5
Hawks 35.5
Cavs 47.5

And the Overs,

Rockets 42.5
Pacers 46.5
Mavs 50.5
Pelicans 45.5


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[maxpower8888]

I think Spurs will get ~40 wins, maybe more.

[UcanUwill]

I will be very surprised if Rockets end up with less wins than Lakers and GSW. I would click GSW under in a big way.

[TravisScott55]

East:
BOS 58.5 Over
NYK 53.5 Over
PHI 52.5 Over
MIL 50.5 Under
CLE 47.5 Under
ORL 47.5 Over
IND 46.5 Over
MIA 44.5 Under
ATL 35.5 Over
CHI 30.5 Under
TOR 30.5 Under
CHA 29.5 Over
DET 24.5 Over
WAS 22.5 Over
BK 19.5 Under

West:
OKC 55.5 Over
DEN 52.5 Under
MIN 52.5 Over
DAL 50.5 Over
MEM 47.5 Over
PHO 46.5 Under
SAC 46.5 Over
NOP 45.5 Under
LAL 44.5 Under
GSW 42.5 Over
HOU 42.5 Over
LAC 40.5 Over
SAS 35.5 Over
UTA 28.5 Under
POR 21.5 Over

[FreeBird23]

GSW will be better than that if healthy.
Losing Klay for Kyle Anderson, Hield and Melton is an improvement.

[Raptor_Guy]

If the Raptors stay healthy that should be an easy over. For better or worse it doesn't seem like they plan on tanking this year and looked decent when healthy last year, I would expect high 30s.

[nomansland]

I wonder how accurate these predictions were last year. I did a quick search but couldn't find the similar article.

Nobody ever does an article on how wrong they were though.

[FreeBird23]

I wonder how accurate these predictions were last year. I did a quick search but couldn't find the similar article.

Nobody ever does an article on how wrong they were though.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38558502/2023-24-nba-season-preview-rankings-predictions-odds-ahead-opening-night

[HadAnEffectHere]

Houston has pretty strong incentive to tank this year if things aren't going well so I would say their Under is the best bet of the year.

Houston's roster also fits together really badly and is a lot worse than the sum of its parts.

[Mavrelous]

I wonder how accurate these predictions were last year. I did a quick search but couldn't find the similar article.

Nobody ever does an article on how wrong they were though.

ESPN bet (gambling arm of ESPN) is new, I don't think it existed last year, hopefully it won't exist next year...

[iggymcfrack]

First thoughts:

Milwaukee under 50.5
Indiana over 46.5
Chicago under 30.5
Brooklyn over 19.5 LOCK

OKC over 55.5
Denver under 52.5
Dallas under 50.5
Phoenix under 46.5 LOCK
New Orleans over 45.5
Golden State over 42.5
Houston over 42.5 LOCK
San Antonio over 35.5

[brackdan70]

I am taking out a home equity loan and putting it all on the Over for the Celtics. Easy money.

[nomansland]

I wonder how accurate these predictions were last year. I did a quick search but couldn't find the similar article.

Nobody ever does an article on how wrong they were though.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38558502/2023-24-nba-season-preview-rankings-predictions-odds-ahead-opening-night

Yeah I saw that but was hoping for more of a list like the OP provided because I'm lazy and didn't want to go through it one by one.

[sp6r=underrated]

I wonder how accurate these predictions were last year. I did a quick search but couldn't find the similar article.

Nobody ever does an article on how wrong they were though.

Sporting lines are highly efficient which is why gamblers almost always lose money. My guess is if you look at other sports books you'll see:
1. No bias towards under counting or counting wins
2. Roughly an even amount of bets on both sides

[rand]

East:
BOS 58.5 - Over. Hard to see them rating to be worse than last season relative to the league by 7+ games.
NYK 53.5 - Over. With a positive run of health, Knicks could get the #1 seed.
PHI 52.5 - Under. Massive injury and age risk.
MIL 50.5 - Under. Bucks should be much better than the 17-19 under Doc last season but not enough to get 51 wins.
CLE 47.5 - Over. Same squad had negative injury luck last season and they still won 48.
ORL 47.5 - Over. Paolo should take a step forward. KCP is a big add. Will break 50 wins with positive injury luck.
IND 46.5 - Even. 46.5 sounds about right.
MIA 44.5 - Over. On paper at least. If Jimmy is traded or is not traded but wants out, Heat will fall short of 45 wins.
ATL 35.5 - Over. With Dejounte gone their floor balance will be much better so long as Trae is healthier than last season.
CHI 30.5 - Under. Whatever his limitations, DeRozan was the Bulls' rock. Losing Caruso hurts bad too.
TOR 30.5 - Under. Bottom-10 talented team with no roster improvement from last season.
CHA 29.5 - Over. Hornets need progression from their young guys individually and as an integrated unit but I like their talent.
DET 24.5 - Under. Should be marginally improved with more vets in the lineup but they are talent poor especially at the top.
WAS 22.5 - Under. The most talent poor team in the league should be looking to the 2025 lotter.
BK 19.5 - Even. Nets will be bottom-5 but 20 is such a low number.

West:
OKC 55.5 - Over. OKC won 57 last season and can expect progression from Holmgren or Williams. Plus Caruso is an impact add.
DEN 52.5 - Under. 50-52 range sounds right. KCP was a key in their rotation.
MIN 52.5 - Over. Don't see how MIN could rate to lose 4 more games next season with the same squad.
DAL 50.5 - Over. A solid frontcourt has made the difference for the Mavs being a 50+ win team.
MEM 47.5 - Over. Finally healthy, Grizz have the deepest rotation in the NBA.
PHO 46.5 - Over. High injury risk but the top-6 of their rotation is excellent together.
SAC 46.5 - Under. DeRozan won't move the needle as the 3rd option on offense.
NOP 45.5 - Under. Not impressed with swapping JV and Naji for Dejounte. Zion rates to play fewer than last season's 70 games.
LAL 44.5 - Over. LeBron still has it for at least one more season.
HOU 42.5 - Even. 42.5 sounds about right, marginal improvement over last season due to progression.
LAC 40.5 - Under. Loss of PG and massive injury risks in Harden and especially Kawhi.
SAS 35.5 - Even. A 13.5 game improvement from Wemby progression and stabilizing vets in CP3 and Barnes sounds right.
UTA 28.5 - Under. Jazz will sell Lowry and tank because Ainge is smart.
POR 21.5 - Over. Blazers will win over 21 but is very likely to end up 14th in the West.

[MavsDirk41]

First thoughts:

Milwaukee under 50.5
Indiana over 46.5
Chicago under 30.5
Brooklyn over 19.5 LOCK

OKC over 55.5
Denver under 52.5
Dallas under 50.5
Phoenix under 46.5 LOCK
New Orleans over 45.5
Golden State over 42.5
Houston over 42.5 LOCK
San Antonio over 35.5

Lol the Mavs improved and you have them under? Do you know what their record was after the trade deadline last season?

[meekrab]

Miami under, I think its finally the year the wheels fall off the Heat train.

[nomansland]

I wonder how accurate these predictions were last year. I did a quick search but couldn't find the similar article.

Nobody ever does an article on how wrong they were though.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38558502/2023-24-nba-season-preview-rankings-predictions-odds-ahead-opening-night

Yeah I saw that but was hoping for more of a list like the OP provided because I'm lazy and didn't want to go through it one by one.

I did it one by one and this was the result from last year. Sorry for the format, it's copied from an Excel sheet.

Team Wins Losses 23 prediction
BOS 64 18 53.5
OKC 57 25 43.5
DEN 57 25 51.5
MIN 56 26 46.5
LAC 51 31 46.5
NYK 50 32 45.5
DAL 50 32 43.5
MIL 49 33 54.5
PHX 49 33 50.5
NOP 49 33 43.5
CLE 48 34 50.5
ORL 47 35 37.5
IND 47 35 39.5
PHI 47 35 47.5
LAL 47 35 47.5
MIA 46 36 44.5
SAC 46 36 44.5
GSW 46 36 47.5
HOU 41 41 32.5
CHI 39 43 37.5
ATL 36 46 42.5
BKN 32 50 36.5
UTA 31 51 35.5
MEM 27 55 43.5
TOR 25 57 37.5
SAS 22 60 29.5
CHA 21 61 30.5
POR 21 61 29.5
WAS 15 67 24.5
DET 14 68 28.5

[Roger Murdock]

First thoughts:

Milwaukee under 50.5
Indiana over 46.5
Chicago under 30.5
Brooklyn over 19.5 LOCK

OKC over 55.5
Denver under 52.5
Dallas under 50.5
Phoenix under 46.5 LOCK
New Orleans over 45.5
Golden State over 42.5
Houston over 42.5 LOCK
San Antonio over 35.5

Lol the Mavs improved and you have them under? Do you know what their record was after the trade deadline last season?

Kyrie has trouble maintaining professionalism and integrity for long stretches. You got his best year in 8 seasons last year. There’s a chance he goes off the rails again.

And your same logic cuts both ways. The 2022-2023 Mavericks fell apart post trade deadline. Does that mean they will stink worse in 23-24?

I think 50 is about right for them. They are a stay away because of Kyrie factors

[iggymcfrack]

First thoughts:

Milwaukee under 50.5
Indiana over 46.5
Chicago under 30.5
Brooklyn over 19.5 LOCK

OKC over 55.5
Denver under 52.5
Dallas under 50.5
Phoenix under 46.5 LOCK
New Orleans over 45.5
Golden State over 42.5
Houston over 42.5 LOCK
San Antonio over 35.5

Lol the Mavs improved and you have them under? Do you know what their record was after the trade deadline last season?

I don't think they improved. Klay's one of the worst players in the league both in terms of overall talent and fit next to Luka and Kyrie. With the salary he's commanding and Kidd's coaching I expect him to maybe even start the year in the starting lineup and definitely play heavy minutes for the majority of the regular season. Also, Luka played his most games since his rookie season last year and then dealt with some serious injuries in the postseason during a lengthy run that may not have had time to fully heal. Most teams struggle the year after a Finals run and the Mavs look more banged up than most.