Expansion Draft Hypothetical

[Knightro]

The NBA is going to expand. Seattle and Las Vegas are almost assuredly the two cities getting teams which put the league at 32 franchises.

Somewhere between the 2026-27 and 2028-29 seasons, we’ll see those new teams join the NBA.

Let's play a hypothetical game...

If the NBA Expansion Draft was THIS year, who would the Magic protect? They are allowed to protect 8 players.

For me...

1. Paolo Banchero
2. Franz Wagner
3. Jalen Suggs
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
5. Jonathan Isaac
6. Anthony Black
7. Wendell Carter Jr.

The first 7 are pretty easy for me. The five starters, Isaac the most important bench player, and Black's potential.

The 8th spot is either Tristan da Silva or Jett Howard...

I'd probably protect Jett and hope like hell neither expansion team plucks TDS, but they probably would.

Would not protect...
Cole Anthony
Moritz Wagner
Goga Bitadze
Gary Harris
Tristan da Silva
Cory Joseph
Caleb Houstan

[RichCollab]

The NBA is going to expand. Seattle and Las Vegas are almost assuredly the two cities getting teams which put the league at 32 franchises.

Somewhere between the 2026-27 and 2028-29 seasons, we’ll see those new teams join the NBA.

Let's play a hypothetical game...

If the NBA Expansion Draft was THIS year, who would the Magic protect? They are allowed to protect 8 players.

For me...

1. Paolo Banchero
2. Franz Wagner
3. Jalen Suggs
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
5. Jonathan Isaac
6. Anthony Black
7. Wendell Carter Jr.

The first 7 are pretty easy for me. The five starters, Isaac the most important bench player, and Black's potential.

The 8th spot is either Tristan da Silva or Jett Howard...

I'd probably protect Jett and hope like hell neither expansion team plucks TDS, but they probably would.

Would not protect...
Cole Anthony
Moritz Wagner
Goga Bitadze
Gary Harris
Tristan da Silva
Cory Joseph
Caleb Houstan

KCP, WCJ, Jett, and TDS is the bubble for me.

1. Paolo
2. Franz
3. Suggs
4. JI
5. Black
6.
7.
8.

WCJ is a solid center on a good contract. Centers are a premium so he likely is 1st choice off the bubble.

KCP, Jett, and TDS left.

Wings are highly desirable so TDS is next.

It comes down to Jett and KCP.

Guards aren’t at a premium. This probably comes down to where Jett’s current assessment is at.

[eyriq]

Fun hypothetical!

I think I'm going to weight the decision in favor of future value. So when we get closer to the cutoff the consideration of upside tips the scale. It's tough picking between JI and KCP for me, but ultimately I'm a sucker for JI's upside.

Protect:
1. Paolo
2. Franz
3. Suggs
4. AB
5. WCJ
6. Jett
7. TDS
8. JI

Unprotected:
9. KCP
10. Moe
11. Cole
12. Goga
13. Harris
14. Houstan
15. Joseph

[DiplomaticMagic]

So youre telling me we better make a consolation trade soon....

[RichCollab]

So youre telling me we better make a consolation trade soon....

Why? Seems like only a single potential valuable player will be at risk.

[orlando_joe]

draft of team players would take place before free agents and i think even draft and would change this very much half the players would not be on magic to include now and make it much easier as then fa choose team

edit also would know 2 yrs before and can make contracts to end
that said
paolo
franze
suggs
isaac
wcj
black
da silva
jett

da silva only one that would not need to protect as draft after player team draft and would trade for anthony

would not protect kcp due to age and contract control
then could sign
mo,goga and kcp

[three3d]

Hmm another IMPORTANT question would be wouldn’t the League have to realign? So with 2 expansion teams going to the Western Conference the split would be 17-15 West VS East we’d need to absorb 1 team. Location wise the New Orleans Pelicans would make sense and hope it was them. But if it was Oklahoma joining the East we’d be in some trouble.

[Trillen]

Paolo
Franz
Suggs
Black
Isaac
WCJ
TDS
KCP

Painful leaving Jett off but I personally feel like his around-the-league stock is lower than TDS. I can't reasonably let KCP go either considering how much importance he has to us trying to compete next year. I feel like if you leave either Jett or TDS off though they'd still grab them at some point

[Knightro]

Hmm another IMPORTANT question would be wouldn’t the League have to realign? So with 2 expansion teams going to the Western Conference the split would be 17-15 West VS East we’d need to absorb 1 team. Location wise the New Orleans Pelicans would make sense and hope it was them. But if it was Oklahoma joining the East we’d be in some trouble.

You are correct.

One team currently in the West will have to be relocated to the East.

Minnesota, Memphis and New Orleans are the closest geographically, so it would very likely be one of them.

But you also have to consider this isn't going to happen for at least 3 years and probably not realistically for 4 or 5.

The landscape of the NBA will be dramatically different in 4-5 years, as it always is.

[JoshuaPotter]

Seems like I am predicting 2 years from now or today?

If today....



Would not protect...
Cole Anthony
Moritz Wagner
Goga Bitadze
Gary Harris
Cory Joseph
Caleb Houstan
Jett Howard

If assuming all the players are here and just aged up....

1. Paolo Banchero
2. Franz Wagner
3. Jalen Suggs
4. Jett Howard
5. Jonathan Isaac
6. Anthony Black
7. Goga Bitadze
8. Tristan da Silva

-
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
-
Wendell Carter Jr.

I do not know how KCP / Wendell are going to age. KCP might still be great, but might be duplicative depending on Jett / AB.

Wendell Carter Jr. I feel is a bad year away from being on this list. Hope I am wrong.

Odd man out both times : Mo Wagner. He is tenacious, and I really want to keep that, yet he has no upside from here leaving all the players on both boards as potentially better.

I do not see Houstan in the NBA at this rate.

[Knightro]

Seems like I am predicting 2 years from now or today?

The hypothetical is for today.

Two years from now Carter, M. Wagner, Harris, Joseph, Houstan are all free agents and KCP could be one too.

Things will naturally shift around every year around the core group.

[eyriq]

What is the right philosophy for approaching this problem?

Protect your core, protect critical role players, protect the player development pipeline? Do you use trade value as the kpi?

[three3d]

Hmm another IMPORTANT question would be wouldn’t the League have to realign? So with 2 expansion teams going to the Western Conference the split would be 17-15 West VS East we’d need to absorb 1 team. Location wise the New Orleans Pelicans would make sense and hope it was them. But if it was Oklahoma joining the East we’d be in some trouble.

You are correct.

One team currently in the West will have to be relocated to the East.

Minnesota, Memphis and New Orleans are the closest geographically, so it would very likely be one of them.

But you also have to consider this isn't going to happen for at least 3 years and probably not realistically for 4 or 5.

The landscape of the NBA will be dramatically different in 4-5 years, as it always is.

So then the next logical question is what does the NBA base the decision off of for who comes to the East. Will it be because of its geographical closeness primarily OR will it be more for balance of power with some geographical relevance factored in. Four or five years down the road I still think the West has is the much tougher conference and a team like OKC could strive out East and become the new Celtics.

[Knightro]

What is the right philosophy for approaching this problem?

Protect your core, protect critical role players, protect the player development pipeline? Do you use trade value as the kpi?

I think protecting your most valuable trade assets has to be a significant consideration as well.

I don't necessarily consider Carter a core piece, but if the Magic are going to trade anyone from their top 7-8 players, Carter seems like the most obvious to move because of the depth behind him.

[eyriq]

What is the right philosophy for approaching this problem?

Protect your core, protect critical role players, protect the player development pipeline? Do you use trade value as the kpi?

I think protecting your most valuable trade assets has to be a significant consideration as well.

I don't necessarily consider Carter a core piece, but if the Magic are going to trade anyone from their top 7-8 players, Carter seems like the most obvious to move because of the depth behind him.

Yeah, trade value is what I considered as a strong point in favor of WCJ.

For KCP, I asked myself if I'd trade TDS or Jett for him.

[Knightro]

So then the next logical question is what does the NBA base the decision off of for who comes to the East. Will it be because of its geographical closeness primarily OR will it be more for balance of power with some geographical relevance factored in. Four or five years down the road I still think the West has is the much tougher conference and a team like OKC could strive out East and become the new Celtics.

Balance of power will not be a consideration. The only thing that will be considered is travel IMO.

The West is adding two expansion teams, both of which should be expected to be very bad for at least the first few seasons. That conference would be getting inherently weaker regardless of which team they move.

Plus... again... expansion is 4-5 years away and all these teams are going to be way different than they are right now.

OKC's owners have been more cheap than not over the years. Chet's gonna get a max. Williams is gonna get a max. Caruso is gonna be resigned to a much bigger deal. SGA's NEXT max is going to be one of those crazy 450M dollar deals.

Are they going to be willing to be a 2nd apron team for a few years? Is *any* team willing to be in the 2nd apron for more than 1-2 years?

They might look significantly different in 5 years, ya know?

[MagicTownBaller]

I would protect

1. Paolo Banchero
2. Franz Wagner
3. Jalen Suggs
4. Jonathan Isaac
5. Anthony Black
6. Tristan Da Silva
7. Jett Howard
8. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Would not protect
Cole Anthony
Corey Joseph
Gary Harris
Caleb Houstan
Wendell Carter Jr.
Moritz Wagner
Goga Bitadze

I believe they can only take 1 or 2 players anyway. I could see them taking Goga, WCJ, or Cole.

[Max Power]

Obviously these decisions would take place a couple years from now so looking at protecting guys like Da Silva and Jett Howard then makes more sense. If we’re protecting guys this summer, I’d go…

Paolo
Franz
Suggs
JI
KCP
Black
Carter
Moe

Unprotected
Jett
Da Silva
Goga
Cole
Harris
Joseph

[RookieStar]

Curious... has it always been to protect only 8 players?

[three3d]

Schroder getting MVP chants from the heavy German crowd and he’s shooting them out of this game with bad 3’s smh

My bad wrong thread