WOJ: Spurs draft Rob Dillingham 8th, then trade him to the TWolves for an unprotected 2031 first

[G R E Y]

Nobody cares about a swap and a pick 6 and 7 years from now. If the Spurs hold those assets 5 years they MAY have some value, but odds are the Wolves will be very good in 2030-31.

Except for the teams that happen to trade for the before then. Again, asset management isn't just for THIS lone transaction. How is that not a consideration? Getting a ton of assets to then flip for a player we are targeting US in fact, good asset management, and roster construction. How did the Wolves acquire Gobert?

Normally teams only trade for picks far away when they are doing a Gobert like trade where they get a first every other year. The swap being 6 years away and the pick being 7 years away is what makes me feel it's idiotic. It's the first trade of it's kind. I personally don't give a sheet about picks/swaps that far out.

It doesn't matter that you don't. It matters what Spurs know other teams value in future/upcoming transactions. This isn't happening in a vacuum.

[KGdaBom]

Yeah. And the further an unprotected pick is down the road the more value it usually holds due to its uncertain nature. Picks also lose a lot of value after they are made so this pick will retain the “still on the lot” value. There are a variety of ways the Spurs can use this pick to improve their team. The Spurs actually making the pick is probably the least likely outcome.

5 years from now IF the Spurs still control the swap and the pick they will have some value. They have virtually no value now because they can't be used for so long and almost nobody will be interested in trading for them.

For sure it’s a gamble by the Spurs but they’ve seemingly timed this to mitigate some threat of Wemby leaving. For all intents and purposes they’ve got 6 years before the “Victor might want out” narrative forms if they haven’t built a contender by then. If they’re facing that threat then they can use these assets to improve their team right around the time Wemby’s max contract is coming to an end in a similar way that the Bucks have acquired Jrue and Dame to get Giannis to extend. Time will tell whether they made a mistake on trading Dillingham (assuming that’s who they would have taken). If he’s a legit starter then they screwed up. If he’s in that 6th man microwave ilk of players then they probably played it correctly imo as those types of players aren’t overly difficult to acquire. The Spurs must not have evaluated Dillingham very highly if they were willing to make this trade.

How they value Dillingham should have had almost nothing to do with it. They could have drafted anybody left. It seems they didn't see one player good enough to draft left, but they did because they made their 2nd round picks right?

[KGdaBom]

Except for the teams that happen to trade for the before then. Again, asset management isn't just for THIS lone transaction. How is that not a consideration? Getting a ton of assets to then flip for a player we are targeting US in fact, good asset management, and roster construction. How did the Wolves acquire Gobert?

Normally teams only trade for picks far away when they are doing a Gobert like trade where they get a first every other year. The swap being 6 years away and the pick being 7 years away is what makes me feel it's idiotic. It's the first trade of it's kind. I personally don't give a sheet about picks/swaps that far out.

It doesn't matter that you don't. It matters what Spurs know other teams value in future/upcoming transactions. This isn't happening in a vacuum.

Teams place very little value on picks and swaps 6 and 7 years away. I personally know every GM in the NBA except for Wright (Wrong) and they all told me this.

[KGdaBom]

Yes, the Spurs traded Dillingham for a kid who is currently in the 7th grade, but that 7th grader is probably bigger than Dilly RIGHT NOW

Good one.
For what it's worth Dilly got off to a bad SL start missing lots of shots, but he has proven to be a GREAT facilitator and his shot came around in the last game. He's looking very good and Wolves fans are extremely excited for him. Time will tell.

[KGdaBom]

Rob plays exactly like Lou Will tbh. Should be great to take offensive load off Ant. He should be a 20 ppg player

Dilly is a much better facilitator than Sweet Lou, but man Lou was an amazing efficient scorer. I'd be thrilled if Dilly turns out as good.

[KGdaBom]

Rob plays exactly like Lou Will tbh. Should be great to take offensive load off Ant. He should be a 20 ppg player

I liked him a lot too. He looked like the prototypical UK player who blows up in the NBA because the pace and space are more suited to his game. I won't be surprised if he ends up somewhere between Maxey and Quickley.

I think Wolves fans would be happy with that.

[zimpy27]

Trade seems simple.

Spurs didn't like anyone at pick 8 and traded it for an unprotected FRP and swap that they can keep or use in trade (may even trade the Wolves pick back to them for Ant or McD in future).

Wolves really liked Dillingham and were willing to give up future picks for him. A scorer on a rookie scale contract was valuable to them.

[KGdaBom]

They'd hold opponents to 95ppg and score 90ppg

Am i the only one whom doesn't trust Sochan?

What about my post gave you the impression he was trusted? He's a big question mark at this point. He shows flashes but needs to put it together and that PG nonsense didn't do him any favors. But jury's still out, I think he can still become an impact player. He's barely turned 21 a month ago

As a Wolves fan I'd be happy to take Sochan off your hands. Not sure what I'd offer though. How about an uprotected 2nd round pick in 2031.

[shrink]

I love this trade for the Spurs.

Lets just do the math here. There are 30 teams. Dillingham was selected 8. Which means 30-8 is 22 which means there are 22 possibilities versus 8 where the Spurs end up with a worse selection. That means the Spurs have a 73.3 percent chance of ending up with a worse draft spot, but wait it gets even worse it's 7 years for it convey.

There are two other factors though in valuation.

First, this is an unprotected pick. Those seven better picks are more valuable than 8, but the top 1-3 are FAR more valuable. If we looked at past drafts, was more value found in the top 7 picks, or in 9-30? I’d say that’s a pretty even split.

Second, every draft isn’t the same, and this #8 pick was in a weak draft.

I like it for the Spurs, and kind of like it for the Wolves. Dillingham may or may not be worth it, but he probably isn’t worth it to the Spurs, who clearly preferred Stephon Castle. Seven years from now is a wait, but we know that Towns and Gobert will be long gone, and 2031 gives Ant time to be on a new team, if the Wolves have used up all their assets in prior “win now” moves.

[G R E Y]

I'm going to go ahead and bookmark this thread. Way too much hot air. Easy target.

[KGdaBom]

Ya it was a dumb gamble for a team like the Spurs who need to add as much good young talent as possible. If a contender like the Celtics made a trade like this, I'd understand.

I'd somewhat understand if they wanted to blatantly tank again for Flagg or someone else but then why go get Chris Paul and Barnes this offseason. Spurs could have just grabbed Edey to form their own twin towers again if they didn't like any other young talent at that spot.

It's hilarious seeing people defend this trade. I've been following the NBA for 50 years and it's the worst trade I've ever seen.

Ever? LMAO ok.

We'll be fine without a tiny non D hot shooter who just took a steal and had two team mates run out in front of him and he slowed down to pull up a 3 instead.

If I can pin point the essence of why he would not fit with us, this might be it.

And if you can't consider why having unprotected picks when Wemby is in his prime with the cap restrictions already affecting current teams, them you aren't thinking long term enough. And that's fine by PATFO, too lol We'll just take those picks, thanks very much.

The reality is that we could not get the player we wanted at 8 and got an offer we did for it instead. RD was never going to be a Spur, so it's not like another team had to pry him out of our hands.

We selected this pick FOR Minnesota FO who traded for the 8th pick with their unprotected and swap offer. It could have been any other player available. That RD had a hot game (ignoring the woeful efficiency in a previous one) does not change this reality.

We have a TON of picks available. Let's stop pretending that Wemby's future happiness or success is somehow tied to us having or not having RD. And let's consider that choosing Castle was Wemby approved...

If Wright is worthy of his job he should have been able to find somebody at pick 8 in this worst draft in the history of drafts in all sports. Not trade it away for a random pick 7 years from now and a random swap 6 years from now. Connelly found a guy he deemed worthy of pick 8. That's the way I see it. Dillingham probably won't be a superstar, but he's a great scorer and facilitator. Hopefully his defensive limitations don't hurt the Wolves too much.

[KGdaBom]

The pick can be more valuable in like 2029 if the Spurs are looking to upgrade their rotation for example.

At that point it would be a pick not too far away which many times can be used to acquire a solid rotation piece.

True if they hold the pick/swap until 2029 they may have some value. Right now they have almost none. I'm just not a fan of delaying gratification for 6-7 years.

[shrink]

Normally teams only trade for picks far away when they are doing a Gobert like trade where they get a first every other year. The swap being 6 years away and the pick being 7 years away is what makes me feel it's idiotic. It's the first trade of it's kind.

Interesting. You’re right, we usually see teams trade future picks for win now players. Gobert will be gone before those last picks come due. However, if Dillingham becomes a star, he could still be in MIN on a 25% designated max contract, and deflating the value of the pick that brought him to MIN in the first place.

Or he could be used as a positive piece of salary matching for a future vet.

[G R E Y]

It's hilarious seeing people defend this trade. I've been following the NBA for 50 years and it's the worst trade I've ever seen.

Ever? LMAO ok.

We'll be fine without a tiny non D hot shooter who just took a steal and had two team mates run out in front of him and he slowed down to pull up a 3 instead.

If I can pin point the essence of why he would not fit with us, this might be it.

And if you can't consider why having unprotected picks when Wemby is in his prime with the cap restrictions already affecting current teams, them you aren't thinking long term enough. And that's fine by PATFO, too lol We'll just take those picks, thanks very much.

The reality is that we could not get the player we wanted at 8 and got an offer we did for it instead. RD was never going to be a Spur, so it's not like another team had to pry him out of our hands.

We selected this pick FOR Minnesota FO who traded for the 8th pick with their unprotected and swap offer. It could have been any other player available. That RD had a hot game (ignoring the woeful efficiency in a previous one) does not change this reality.

We have a TON of picks available. Let's stop pretending that Wemby's future happiness or success is somehow tied to us having or not having RD. And let's consider that choosing Castle was Wemby approved...

If Wright is worthy of his job he should have been able to find somebody at pick 8 in this worst draft in the history of drafts in all sports. Not trade it away for a random pick 7 years from now and a random swap 6 years from now. Connelly found a guy he deemed worthy of pick 8. That's the way I see it. Dillingham probably won't be a superstar, but he's a great scorer and facilitator. Hopefully his defensive limitations don't hurt the Wolves too much.

That's only relevant if Spurs wanted only what you say they ought to have. You not seeing beyond elation of RD's O game in SL does not limit an FO and its short-term and long-term plans.

[KGdaBom]

What if the Spurs don’t think Dillingham is good? If the Spurs thought Dillingham was going to be some surefire starter down the road they probably don’t trade him. If they think he’s Lou Williams 2.0 then they can probably acquire that type of player for cheaper than what they gave up. Maybe they don’t like him at all. The Spurs didn’t draft Dillingham, they drafted him for the Wolves so we don’t really know what the Spurs think of Dillingham but it obviously isn’t a high opinion.

The Spurs could have drafted anybody available at pick 8. They didn't have to pick Dillingham.

Spurs didn't. WOLVES picked it after trading for pick 8. Spurs just did what Wolves directed them to with their pick.

That's what I'm saying. If the Spurs didn't make the trade with the Wolves they could have drafted anybody. They weren't obligated to take Dilly.

[KGdaBom]

I love this trade for the Spurs.

Lets just do the math here. There are 30 teams. Dillingham was selected 8. Which means 30-8 is 22 which means there are 22 possibilities versus 8 where the Spurs end up with a worse selection. That means the Spurs have a 73.3 percent chance of ending up with a worse draft spot, but wait it gets even worse it's 7 years for it convey.

None of us know what the future holds but teams normally have to pay a premium to win now. Somehow the Wolves got the more recent asset at a significant discount based on the future flat odds of the pick. It's just an awful trade and there is no defense for it.

Period

Absolutely. People defending the trade from the Spurs perspective simply aren't accounting for the premium for winning now rather than winning later. Then there is that math you are talking about.

[nikster]

There have definitely been much worse trades than this.

And we haven't even seen the results of this trade. Maybe if the #8 pick turns out great we can look at it poorly, but I doubt it

Right we haven't seen the results yet. I'm just basing it on what was given and what was received at the time the trade was made. A random swap 6 years from now and a random pick 7 years from now for #8 THIS YEAR. Yeah I know it was supposedly a weak draft. I have seen Dillingham play. He wasn't a weak pick.

When Wemby approaches his prime that pick and pick swap will be much more tangible assets that the team can leverage. That's the focus for the team right now.

[KGdaBom]

Ever? LMAO ok.

We'll be fine without a tiny non D hot shooter who just took a steal and had two team mates run out in front of him and he slowed down to pull up a 3 instead.

If I can pin point the essence of why he would not fit with us, this might be it.

And if you can't consider why having unprotected picks when Wemby is in his prime with the cap restrictions already affecting current teams, them you aren't thinking long term enough. And that's fine by PATFO, too lol We'll just take those picks, thanks very much.

The reality is that we could not get the player we wanted at 8 and got an offer we did for it instead. RD was never going to be a Spur, so it's not like another team had to pry him out of our hands.

We selected this pick FOR Minnesota FO who traded for the 8th pick with their unprotected and swap offer. It could have been any other player available. That RD had a hot game (ignoring the woeful efficiency in a previous one) does not change this reality.

We have a TON of picks available. Let's stop pretending that Wemby's future happiness or success is somehow tied to us having or not having RD. And let's consider that choosing Castle was Wemby approved...

If Wright is worthy of his job he should have been able to find somebody at pick 8 in this worst draft in the history of drafts in all sports. Not trade it away for a random pick 7 years from now and a random swap 6 years from now. Connelly found a guy he deemed worthy of pick 8. That's the way I see it. Dillingham probably won't be a superstar, but he's a great scorer and facilitator. Hopefully his defensive limitations don't hurt the Wolves too much.

That's only relevant if Spurs wanted only what you say they ought to have. You not seeing beyond elation of RD's O game in SL does not limit an FO and its short-term and long-term plans.

Our disagreement comes from me not being a fan of a historically long delay of gratification. No team in the history of the NBA has ever delayed gratification this long. 6 years from now I will possibly be bummed out over the pick swap. 7 years from now I will miss the first round pick we traded away. Do I give a rat's ass about that now? No I don't.

[floppymoose]

I love this trade for the Spurs.

Lets just do the math here. There are 30 teams. Dillingham was selected 8. Which means 30-8 is 22 which means there are 22 possibilities versus 8 where the Spurs end up with a worse selection. That means the Spurs have a 73.3 percent chance of ending up with a worse draft spot, but wait it gets even worse it's 7 years for it convey.

None of us know what the future holds but teams normally have to pay a premium to win now. Somehow the Wolves got the more recent asset at a significant discount based on the future flat odds of the pick. It's just an awful trade and there is no defense for it.

Period

Wait, I thought there was both an unprotected 1st and a 1st pick swap. Is that wrong?

[KGdaBom]

I love this trade for the Spurs.

Lets just do the math here. There are 30 teams. Dillingham was selected 8. Which means 30-8 is 22 which means there are 22 possibilities versus 8 where the Spurs end up with a worse selection. That means the Spurs have a 73.3 percent chance of ending up with a worse draft spot, but wait it gets even worse it's 7 years for it convey.

None of us know what the future holds but teams normally have to pay a premium to win now. Somehow the Wolves got the more recent asset at a significant discount based on the future flat odds of the pick. It's just an awful trade and there is no defense for it.

Period

Wait, I thought there was both an unprotected 1st and a 1st pick swap. Is that wrong?

There is a pick swap protected only for #1 overall. Sixers probably doubts it will convey. Good chance both teams are drafting in the 20s in 2030. There is a chance the Spurs have pick 32 and the Wolves have pick 2. I wouldn't hold my breath 6 years waiting for that to be the case.