WOJ: Spurs draft Rob Dillingham 8th, then trade him to the TWolves for an unprotected 2031 first

[floppymoose]

Lets just do the math here. There are 30 teams. Dillingham was selected 8. Which means 30-8 is 22 which means there are 22 possibilities versus 8 where the Spurs end up with a worse selection. That means the Spurs have a 73.3 percent chance of ending up with a worse draft spot, but wait it gets even worse it's 7 years for it convey.

The math isn't for the chance the pick is better or worse. The math is for the expected value. The expected value for draft picks is not linear. It's a fast falloff from 1st, to 2nd, ... and very slight drop off from 29th to 30th. There is a 0% chance that the 8 pick is top 7. But there is a significant chance that the unprotected first is a high pick. And so much of the draft value is there that you don't need a 50% chance of that for it to be good value.

If the pick swap is only protected for #1, that is pretty sweet as well.

[maradro]

If Wright is worthy of his job he should have been able to find somebody at pick 8 in this worst draft in the history of drafts in all sports. Not trade it away for a random pick 7 years from now and a random swap 6 years from now. Connelly found a guy he deemed worthy of pick 8. That's the way I see it. Dillingham probably won't be a superstar, but he's a great scorer and facilitator. Hopefully his defensive limitations don't hurt the Wolves too much.

That's only relevant if Spurs wanted only what you say they ought to have. You not seeing beyond elation of RD's O game in SL does not limit an FO and its short-term and long-term plans.

Our disagreement comes from me not being a fan of a historically long delay of gratification. No team in the history of the NBA has ever delayed gratification this long. 6 years from now I will possibly be bummed out over the pick swap. 7 years from now I will miss the first round pick we traded away. Do I give a rat's ass about that now? No I don't.

As a spurs fan, I partially agree. Being such a long timeframe also makes it very difficult to evaluate.

The argument for the trade though, is to use that temporal disconnect against the other team. It's certainly plausible the wolves suck hard 7 years from now, just like youd expect a prime wemby team to be a contender picking late. Having that future asset also makes the more imminent ones more available to make moves in between.. we'll not know if it was a good gamble for 7 years at least

Anyways, I think regardless of the future pick aspect of the trade, it will be interesting to see how castle / dillingham develop.. I feel like castle has higher upside but is more of a risk, while dillingham even with his defensive issues seems like he'll surely be a plus scorer. Wright seems to have a track record of drafting on physique and hoping the IQ and skill can be learned, but I think it's the opposite, it's easier to improve athletic condition than to learn to shoot or make reads. If castle doesn't develop how spurs fans hope, I can see many wondering what if we had taken dillingham instead

[Dominator83]

Ya it was a dumb gamble for a team like the Spurs who need to add as much good young talent as possible. If a contender like the Celtics made a trade like this, I'd understand.

I'd somewhat understand if they wanted to blatantly tank again for Flagg or someone else but then why go get Chris Paul and Barnes this offseason. Spurs could have just grabbed Edey to form their own twin towers again if they didn't like any other young talent at that spot.

It's hilarious seeing people defend this trade. I've been following the NBA for 50 years and it's the worst trade I've ever seen.

Ever? LMAO ok.

We'll be fine without a tiny non D hot shooter who just took a steal and had two team mates run out in front of him and he slowed down to pull up a 3 instead.

If I can pin point the essence of why he would not fit with us, this might be it.

And if you can't consider why having unprotected picks when Wemby is in his prime with the cap restrictions already affecting current teams, them you aren't thinking long term enough. And that's fine by PATFO, too lol We'll just take those picks, thanks very much.

The reality is that we could not get the player we wanted at 8 and got an offer we did for it instead. RD was never going to be a Spur, so it's not like another team had to pry him out of our hands.

We selected this pick FOR Minnesota FO who traded for the 8th pick with their unprotected and swap offer. It could have been any other player available. That RD had a hot game (ignoring the woeful efficiency in a previous one) does not change this reality.

We have a TON of picks available. Let's stop pretending that Wemby's future happiness or success is somehow tied to us having or not having RD. And let's consider that choosing Castle was Wemby approved...

Yea worst trade EVER isn't even close. Look at Brooklyn Billy King trades those were 10x worse.

I do however, think the Spurs should have drafted Buzelis and kept him with that pick

[JHFVF07]

The problem is that Spurs has too much to lose, of Dillingham somehow finds his way to starhood and SAS strugle to put a competitive team around Wemby, this trade will be talked about for the next 7 years.

[Rust_Cohle]

The problem is that Spurs has too much to lose, of Dillingham somehow finds his way to starhood and SAS strugle to put a competitive team around Wemby, this trade will be talked about for the next 7 years.

Far more likely that a player with a mostly terrible summer league and plays below zero defense will be a bench warmer. Spurs off-season this summer alone is better than taking a pint on a severely undersized guard who rarely translate well to the NBA

[KGdaBom]

Lets just do the math here. There are 30 teams. Dillingham was selected 8. Which means 30-8 is 22 which means there are 22 possibilities versus 8 where the Spurs end up with a worse selection. That means the Spurs have a 73.3 percent chance of ending up with a worse draft spot, but wait it gets even worse it's 7 years for it convey.

The math isn't for the chance the pick is better or worse. The math is for the expected value. The expected value for draft picks is not linear. It's a fast falloff from 1st, to 2nd, ... and very slight drop off from 29th to 30th. There is a 0% chance that the 8 pick is top 7. But there is a significant chance that the unprotected first is a high pick. And so much of the draft value is there that you don't need a 50% chance of that for it to be good value.

If the pick swap is only protected for #1, that is pretty sweet as well.

As I stated elsewhere if you're into delaying gratification 6-7 years the payoff can possibly be very good, but the odds are strongly against that. As another poster said there is a win now premium. I really don't give a rat's ass about a swap 6 years from now and a pick 7 years from now. Almost nobody does. If delayed gratification like that floats your boat more power to you.

[Dominator83]

There is a lot of if's on that plan. One would think San Antonio would be serious about building a contender with Wembanyama sooner than later, and this trade does not fit the "sooner" plan at all. Keeping Wemby happy should be the #1 priority, and I don't see how that is achieved by trading away lottery picks when the roster is full of holes and the Spurs could use any help?

Is this draft and this evening the lone way and time limit in which to do that? It's like people can't think beyond the moment of the reaction of a trade or consider that extra cap space and picks are actually good trade assets for other moves that... improve the roster holes.

Nobody cares about a swap and a pick 6 and 7 years from now. If the Spurs hold those assets 5 years they MAY have some value, but odds are the Wolves will be very good in 2030-31.

How old are you bro? Just curious given that you've been watching for 50 + years. But come on guy! off the top of my head...

The Brooklyn/Boston Billy king fiasco
Also Billy King trading his upcoming lotto pick (only top 3 protected) and coughing up Lillard for Gerald wallace
KG to Boston for what was basically Al Jefferson (meh) and a poo poo platter of junk
Clippers salary dump Baron davis to cleveland for their upcoming lotto pick unprotected (turned out to be #1 Kyrie Irving!)
Raps traded prime Vince Carter for a poo poo platter of nothing
Olden Polynice for Scottie Pippen
Vlade Divac for Kobe effing Bryant
Paul George for Shai and a bunch of picks
AD to the Lakers for Ingram and a whole lotta nothing

Thats just off the top of my head. Im sure if i take more time and do some googling, im sure i'll find many many more that crush this one.

[KGdaBom]

The problem is that Spurs has too much to lose, of Dillingham somehow finds his way to starhood and SAS strugle to put a competitive team around Wemby, this trade will be talked about for the next 7 years.

Far more likely that a player with a mostly terrible summer league and plays below zero defense will be a bench warmer. Spurs off-season this summer alone is better than taking a pint on a severely undersized guard who rarely translate well to the NBA

Dillingham shot poorly the first 4 SL games, but he showed amazing handles and awareness during those 4 games. 5th game he shot the lights out. Dilly did not have a terrible SL. Just shot poorly at first. He was a great shooter at KY and we expect him to be a great shooter with the Wolves.
The Spurs could have drafted whoever they wanted at 8 if they hadn't made the deal with the Wolves. They were under no obligation to draft Dillingham if they had not made the deal.

[KGdaBom]

Is this draft and this evening the lone way and time limit in which to do that? It's like people can't think beyond the moment of the reaction of a trade or consider that extra cap space and picks are actually good trade assets for other moves that... improve the roster holes.

Nobody cares about a swap and a pick 6 and 7 years from now. If the Spurs hold those assets 5 years they MAY have some value, but odds are the Wolves will be very good in 2030-31.

How old are you bro? Just curious given that you've been watching for 50 + years. But come on guy! off the top of my head...

The Brooklyn/Boston Billy king fiasco
Also Billy King trading his upcoming lotto pick (only top 3 protected) and coughing up Lillard for Gerald wallace
KG to Boston for what was basically Al Jefferson (meh) and a poo poo platter of junk
Clippers salary dump Baron davis to cleveland for their upcoming lotto pick unprotected (turned out to be #1 Kyrie Irving!)
Raps traded prime Vince Carter for a poo poo platter of nothing
Olden Polynice for Scottie Pippen
Vlade Divac for Kobe effing Bryant
Paul George for Shai and a bunch of picks
AD to the Lakers for Ingram and a whole lotta nothing

Thats just off the top of my head. Im sure if i take more time and do some googling, im sure i'll find many many more that crush this one.

I'm 65. I'm talking about the trade when it's made and not the results afterwards. Hindsight is of course 20/20. This trade could end up a disaster for the Wolves and a triumph for the the Spurs, but I'm just going by how it looks right now.

I am a Wolves fan and Al Jefferson was looking real good at the time of the trade and we got pick 7 in that deal which was Wally Szczerbiak and some other stuff. That was less value than you would like true. I don't remember the Billy King trade. Kobe at the time of the trade was a complete nobody. Shai has turned out to be every bit as good as George. Davis was forcing the trade. That's a different situation. Wright didn't have a gun to his head. Wasn't Carter forcing his trade as well? Had Scottie Pippen proven to be anything when that trade was made. Nobody knew the pick would be Irving. Etc.......

The reason I call this the worst trade I've ever seen is it's a swap 6 years from now and a pick 7 years from now. The Wolves are loaded with young talent. Odds are the pick and the swap would be in the 20s and they are so far out that I consider the current value to be virtually nothing. To me the Spurs just gave us Dillingham to be nice.

[Bornstellar]

The Wolves are not loaded with young talent besides Edwards, give me a break. Calling this is the worst trade ever is laughable. And if you've been watching ball for 50 years like you claim then you should be actutely aware of how quickly a team can rise and fall to irrelevance. There is zero guarantee the Wolves will be relevant in 2031 as of today

[Dominator83]

Nobody cares about a swap and a pick 6 and 7 years from now. If the Spurs hold those assets 5 years they MAY have some value, but odds are the Wolves will be very good in 2030-31.

How old are you bro? Just curious given that you've been watching for 50 + years. But come on guy! off the top of my head...

The Brooklyn/Boston Billy king fiasco
Also Billy King trading his upcoming lotto pick (only top 3 protected) and coughing up Lillard for Gerald wallace
KG to Boston for what was basically Al Jefferson (meh) and a poo poo platter of junk
Clippers salary dump Baron davis to cleveland for their upcoming lotto pick unprotected (turned out to be #1 Kyrie Irving!)
Raps traded prime Vince Carter for a poo poo platter of nothing
Olden Polynice for Scottie Pippen
Vlade Divac for Kobe effing Bryant
Paul George for Shai and a bunch of picks
AD to the Lakers for Ingram and a whole lotta nothing

Thats just off the top of my head. Im sure if i take more time and do some googling, im sure i'll find many many more that crush this one.

I'm 65. I'm talking about the trade when it's made and not the results afterwards. Hindsight is of course 20/20. This trade could end up a disaster for the Wolves and a triumph for the the Spurs, but I'm just going by how it looks right now.

I am a Wolves fan and Al Jefferson was looking real good at the time of the trade and we got pick 7 in that deal which was Wally Szczerbiak and some other stuff. That was less value than you would like true. I don't remember the Billy King trade. Kobe at the time of the trade was a complete nobody. Shai has turned out to be every bit as good as George. Davis was forcing the trade. That's a different situation. Wright didn't have a gun to his head. Wasn't Carter forcing his trade as well? Had Scottie Pippen proven to be anything when that trade was made. Nobody knew the pick would be Irving. Etc.......

The reason I call this the worst trade I've ever seen is it's a swap 6 years from now and a pick 7 years from now. The Wolves are loaded with young talent. Odds are the pick and the swap would be in the 20s and they are so far out that I consider the current value to be virtually nothing. To me the Spurs just gave us Dillingham to be nice.

I can respect that! But alot on my list i can see in real time was gonna be bad..

KG and Pierce were at or near washed. Trading all those unprotected picks and swaps that didn't start until the Nets core was projected to be bad and old was easy to see it was gonna be a disaster
Vince Carter for a bag of marbles was bad in real time
Baron Davis dump for upcoming unprotected 1st from a lottery team was brutal even if odds had it around 7 or 8. Who trades top 10 picks for salary dumps??
AD to the Lakers for the Lakers trash overrated young core that couldn't even make the playoffs with Lebron and picks that weren't likely to amount to anything i hated for N.O. in real time

I don't like this trade for the Spurs. I would have kept the pick and drafted Buzelis with it. A Wemby/Buzelis front court can potentially be ridiculous and i wouldn't have passed that up if i was SA. But i don't consider it worse than any of the trades i just outlined above in real time. The ones i left out were hindsight so i didn't include

[Sixers in 4]

The Wolves are not loaded with young talent besides Edwards, give me a break. Calling this is the worst trade ever is laughable. And if you've been watching ball for 50 years like you claim then you should be actutely aware of how quickly a team can rise and fall to irrelevance. There is zero guarantee the Wolves will be relevant in 2031 as of today

It's not the worst ever just a bad trade.

There is nothing wrong with the thought process either the return is just really awful. They should have gotten at least another first rounder and possible a pick swap.

The fact that the pick is seven years from now is not a huge asset yes it could be better because this Wolve team is obviously very good but it could also be in the 20's and you will have waited seven years and given a lotto pick for nothing. Why take that risk? You have the pick now select the BPA rather than take a trash offer.

[Bornstellar]

The Wolves are not loaded with young talent besides Edwards, give me a break. Calling this is the worst trade ever is laughable. And if you've been watching ball for 50 years like you claim then you should be actutely aware of how quickly a team can rise and fall to irrelevance. There is zero guarantee the Wolves will be relevant in 2031 as of today

It's not the worst ever just a bad trade.

There is nothing wrong with the thought process either the return is just really awful. They should have gotten at least another first rounder and possible a pick swap.

The fact that the pick is seven years from now is not a huge asset yes it could be better because this Wolve team is obviously very good but it could also be in the 20's and you will have waited seven years and given a lotto pick for nothing. Why take that risk? You have the pick now select the BPA rather than take a trash offer.

When the Spurs use that pick to eventually trade for an impact player I'll be sure to remind you all how Rob Dillingham is doing jack squat in Minnesota

The Spurs clearly didn't value anyone available at 8 and didnt want the salary. Not sure why that's so hard for some to understand. They got an unprotected 1st and a swap out of a guy who will probably amount to nothing at the NBA level. It's not some god awful trade like some people are trying to make it seem like. And if the Wolves are ass in 2031 and Spurs end up with a lotto pick in Wemby's prime people will be calling Wright a genius. Point is it's too early to be proclaiming that it's a bad trade

Given the entirety of the Wolves franchise history I think I'll take the gamble that they're not going to be an elite team still in 7 years. it's like everyone forgets they were garbage just 3 years ago and now we suddenly expect them to contend for the next decade because they had a good season finally

NBA fans are so fickle, I swear

[Kurtz]

The Wolves are not loaded with young talent besides Edwards, give me a break. Calling this is the worst trade ever is laughable. And if you've been watching ball for 50 years like you claim then you should be actutely aware of how quickly a team can rise and fall to irrelevance. There is zero guarantee the Wolves will be relevant in 2031 as of today

They do have a good core of young talent - Jaden Mcdaniels is 23, Naz Reid 24. NAW seems to be a late bloomer at 25, and then there's Dillingham.

[Bornstellar]

The Wolves are not loaded with young talent besides Edwards, give me a break. Calling this is the worst trade ever is laughable. And if you've been watching ball for 50 years like you claim then you should be actutely aware of how quickly a team can rise and fall to irrelevance. There is zero guarantee the Wolves will be relevant in 2031 as of today

They do have a good core of young talent - Jaden Mcdaniels is 23, Naz Reid 24. NAW seems to be a late bloomer at 25, and then there's Dillingham.

Yawn...NAW and McDaniels are role players, nothing special. Dillingham is all theory at this point. Reid I'll give you but given their salary they're going to have to choose between him and KAT pretty soon anyway.

[Bornstellar]

It's hilarious seeing people defend this trade. I've been following the NBA for 50 years and it's the worst trade I've ever seen.

Ever? LMAO ok.

We'll be fine without a tiny non D hot shooter who just took a steal and had two team mates run out in front of him and he slowed down to pull up a 3 instead.

If I can pin point the essence of why he would not fit with us, this might be it.

And if you can't consider why having unprotected picks when Wemby is in his prime with the cap restrictions already affecting current teams, them you aren't thinking long term enough. And that's fine by PATFO, too lol We'll just take those picks, thanks very much.

The reality is that we could not get the player we wanted at 8 and got an offer we did for it instead. RD was never going to be a Spur, so it's not like another team had to pry him out of our hands.

We selected this pick FOR Minnesota FO who traded for the 8th pick with their unprotected and swap offer. It could have been any other player available. That RD had a hot game (ignoring the woeful efficiency in a previous one) does not change this reality.

We have a TON of picks available. Let's stop pretending that Wemby's future happiness or success is somehow tied to us having or not having RD. And let's consider that choosing Castle was Wemby approved...

Yea worst trade EVER isn't even close. Look at Brooklyn Billy King trades those were 10x worse.

I do however, think the Spurs should have drafted Buzelis and kept him with that pick

This is an actual reasonable take

[Dan Z]

The problem is that Spurs has too much to lose, of Dillingham somehow finds his way to starhood and SAS strugle to put a competitive team around Wemby, this trade will be talked about for the next 7 years.

Far more likely that a player with a mostly terrible summer league and plays below zero defense will be a bench warmer. Spurs off-season this summer alone is better than taking a pint on a severely undersized guard who rarely translate well to the NBA

The Spurs had lots of options at #8 and didn't have to pick Dillingham (or trade him like they did).

As to the other point by JHFVF07....if you think a trade is best for the team then you can't worry about what the optics might look like years later.

[KGdaBom]

The Wolves are not loaded with young talent besides Edwards, give me a break. Calling this is the worst trade ever is laughable. And if you've been watching ball for 50 years like you claim then you should be actutely aware of how quickly a team can rise and fall to irrelevance. There is zero guarantee the Wolves will be relevant in 2031 as of today

Loaded with young talent. Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Dillingham, Shannon, NAW, Miller, Minott, KAT isn't old. We should be very good for a long time. Can things change? Sure. To me it is the worst trade ever IMO because I place virtually zero value on a swap and a first 6 and 7 years from now.

[bkkrh]

The problem is that Spurs has too much to lose, of Dillingham somehow finds his way to starhood and SAS strugle to put a competitive team around Wemby, this trade will be talked about for the next 7 years.

Even if he turns into a star. It does not mean that San Antonio would have even selected him as their pick if they planned to keep it. Also there were tons of draft day trades in the past were exactly that situation happened and somehow it became never a big topic. In the 2006 draft alone 3 of 4 future All NBA players were traded on draft day for a bust/pick: LaMarcus Aldridge for Tyrus Thomas and Viktor Khryapa. Brandon Roy for Randy Foye. Rajon Rondo & Brian Grant for *Tada* a 2007 first rounder that turned into Rudy Fernandez.

Until now Dillingham has exactly the same NBA achievements as that future pick. So it is all only assumptions. I can also just assume that the Spurs will select the next MJ/Lebron with that future pick and win 10 titles afterwards.

[Bornstellar]

The Wolves are not loaded with young talent besides Edwards, give me a break. Calling this is the worst trade ever is laughable. And if you've been watching ball for 50 years like you claim then you should be actutely aware of how quickly a team can rise and fall to irrelevance. There is zero guarantee the Wolves will be relevant in 2031 as of today

Loaded with young talent. Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Dillingham, Shannon, NAW, Miller, Minott, KAT isn't old. We should be very good for a long time. Can things change? Sure. To me it is the worst trade ever IMO because I place virtually zero value on a swap and a first 6 and 7 years from now.

Again McDaniels and NAW are just role players, Dillingham has done nothing yet and the other guys are nobodies. That's like me bragging the Spurs are loaded with young talent and listing off Sochan, Johnson, Branham, Wesley, and Cissoko