Profile of an NBA Finalist

Post #1 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 2:37 pm

I'm bored and have a day off. Nothing revolutionary here, just a first-pass look at NBA Finalists over the years. Looking at ranking in team ORTG, DRTG, Net Rating, Pace and then their postseason ranks in the same. Gonna roll through from 1980 forward, posting each decade as a reply inside this thread. Maybe generate some discussion about the basic trends across the eras, maybe add some more data over time. Should be fun. Or at least something to do.

EDIT: RIGHT! Spoiler tags. I am SMRT.

For the 90s, I have to cheat a little with the lockout year, so I just projected the win totals for San Antonio and New York over 82 games. I will do the same with other shortened seasons.

Post #2 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 2:38 pm

1980s

Spoiler:

1990s

Spoiler:

2000s

Spoiler:

2010s

Spoiler:

Post #3 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 2:55 pm

So, quick look at the 80s. Again, nothing revolutionary. Generally speaking, the title team is around top 3 on O, top 6 on D. Top 2 in Net RTG and SRS. Pace is variable, but there were some slow teams. The Lakers were actually a lot slower than you might think based on their reputation.

Being both a super genius and a master of Excel, I overwrote the 1980s data, so I'll have to redo that later. I have now remembered how not to be a moron with my sheet setups so it doesn't happen again, so I'll have that on-hand for future discussion, lol. Don't do shift work, kids; it makes you even dumber than normal!

Post #4 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 3:58 pm

Nothing really remarkable showing up. Was reminded of how much of a switch turned on for the 01 Lakers on D once the postseason began, so that was fun. Flipped from 21st in the league to 1st in the postseason. Such a sharp difference. If you remove 2000 (because LA was 13th and Indy was 12th in postseason D), then you generally see that the finalists were among the top 4 defenses. Top 6 O, top 4 D, that sort of thing. Again, nothing revelatory and mostly known anecdotally. You have to be really good to win most seasons. Even Miami in 06 was the best defense in the playoffs despite their O stuttering. And then of course Wade going bonkers in the Finals. At some point, I'll have to look at Four Factors to supplement this. Pace is all over the place, it seems not to matter so much. In the 2000s, teams ranged from 5th-27th in regular season pace, and 2nd to 15th in the postseason. The Lakers in 08 were far faster than I recalled.

DISMAL offense in the early 2000s, though, damn. New Jersey was 17th and 18th in regular season O when they made the Finals in 02 and 03. Killer D but man, that O was rough. Detroit was 18th and 17th. 07 Cavs were 18th. There were some ugly, ugly series out there. Least exciting NBA Live game ever after the 03 Finals, heh.

UcanUwill · Post #5 » by **UcanUwill** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 4:05 pm

So you need better offense than defense after all. They lied to us with all that defense bs... :lol:

Post #6 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 4:15 pm

UcanUwill wrote:So you need better offense than defense after all. They lied to us with all that defense bs...

Is that the lesson here?

It's worth mentioning that fully half of the NBA Finalists in the 90s had higher-ranked defenses than offenses in the postseason, and also half of the champions.

What you need is elite play on either end. The average postseason defensive rank of an NBA champ in the 90s was 3.6 (4.3 in the RS). In the 2000s, the average finalist ranked 2.85 on postseason D and 1.8 for the champion.

Clearly, elite D is important.

Post #7 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 4:18 pm

So from the 80s through the 2010s, the average wins for an NBA champion have been 62.5, 61.3, 59.5 and 59.5 by decade. You can see the impact of the 80s dynasties and the 90s Bulls clearly enough. Then a break. Then it's 62.1 wins from 2013 onward (and that's for champs, so it doesn't include the 73-win Warriors, at that).

UcanUwill · Post #8 » by **UcanUwill** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 4:23 pm

tsherkin wrote:
UcanUwill wrote:So you need better offense than defense after all. They lied to us with all that defense bs...

Is that the lesson here?

It's worth mentioning that fully half of the NBA Finalists in the 90s had higher-ranked defenses than offenses in the postseason, and also half of the champions.

What you need is elite play on either end. The average postseason defensive rank of an NBA champ in the 90s was 3.6 (4.3 in the RS). In the 2000s, the average finalist ranked 2.85 on postseason D and 1.8 for the champion.

Clearly, elite D is important.

I know, i just tried to be funny. Its a serious thread, sorry, you put a lot of effort, clearly near elite on both ends is the requirement. Apart Boston, I think funilly enough peak Pelicans was kind of matching the description this season.

Post #9 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 4:34 pm

UcanUwill wrote:I know, i just tried to be funny.

Fair enough; sorry for being stodgy, lol.

Its a serious thread, sorry, you put a lot of effort, clearly near elite on both ends is the requirement. Apart Boston, I think funilly enough peak Pelicans was kind of matching the description this season.

I'm coming up to the 2020s shortly. I just put up the numbers for the RS data from the 2010s and am working through the postseason data now.

nikster · Post #10 » by **nikster** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 4:51 pm

Interesting that finalists tended to be around middle of the pack in terms of pace in all eras during regular season. Probably play a more deliberate game. I would imagine the teams at the highest pace tend to struggle when things slow down, and the teams that are at the slow end of the extreme just dont have a functional enough offense to get to their sets quickly.

Post #11 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 4:59 pm

nikster wrote:Interesting that finalists tended to be around middle of the pack in terms of pace in all eras during regular season. Probably play a more deliberate game. I would imagine the teams at the highest pace tend to struggle when things slow down, and the teams that are at the slow end of the extreme just dont have a functional enough offense to get to their sets quickly.

There are exceptions.

So far, I have found 4 teams in the 90s who were top 5 in the RS in pace, though none of them won. In the 2000s, only the 09 Lakers were top 5... but they were also the 2nd-fastest team in the postseason in 2008 and 5th fastest when the titled in 09. In the 2010s, 4 teams were top 5. The Warriors were 1st when they won in 2015 and 2nd a year after. There are a couple more if you expand to include #6, but yeah, teams tend to be a little more methodical in the regular season.

Now, come the postseason? 5 teams in the 80s were top 5 in postseason pace, and an additional 3 were 6th or 7th. Houston won that way in 94 and 95, and Chicago was 7th in pace in 96. 8 teams were top 6 in postseason pace and made the Finals in the 2000s. All of LAL's 3-peat was that way (4, 4, 6). The 03 title Spurs were 6th. The 06 title Heat. Orlando was 8th in 09.

Post #12 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 5:11 pm

And for some 2010s details... 4 teams who were in the top 4 in pace during the postseason made the Finals. The Spurs and the 2017 Warriors won whilst doing so.

Post #13 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 5:31 pm

2020s to date. Milwaukee and Golden State both won titles as the 5th-fastest teams in the playoffs. The Bucks had been the 2nd-fastest team in the RS as well, though the Warriors were 13th. Golden State flipped their offense from 17th to 4th in the playoffs, had been the best D in the RS and were 6th in the playoffs. 6 of the Finalists we have seen so far have been 23rd or slower in RS pace. And only Milwaukee and Dallas have been inside the top 10. Average RS wins for a Finalist so far has been 53.5, 56.5 for the champ, which is the lowest so far.

kingr · Post #14 » by **kingr** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 5:38 pm

I do like that this kind of shows that regular season winnings do matter. Or the champs/finalists are usually teams with a high number of wins. The champions' average was around 60 wins throughout the decades.

Post #15 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 5:39 pm

First 5 years so far, we're also seeing average PS ORTG at 5.8 and PS DRTG at 4.8 for Finalists, 4.2 and 3.8 for champs. So the D has been, on average, ranked a little higher than the O so far. This is in part because the Bucks and the Suns were pretty rough offensively in the PS, and Boston didn't really kill it in 2022. 4 of the 5 champs have been the #1 ranked team in PS Net rating (Milwaukee was 3rd).

In the 1990s, only the 1995 Rockets weren't the #1 team by net rating to win a title.

In the 2000s, 5 teams were #1, three more were number 2. The 2000 Lakers were 4th and the 2009 Lakers were 3rd. SAS in 05 and 07 and MIA in 06 were 2nd.

In the 2010s, 6 teams were ranked #1 in PS Net rating. 2013 MIA, 2016 CLE and 2019 Toronto were 2nd, and the 2010 Lakers were 3rd.

So, to no one's surprise, over the last 35 years, we've seen 25 teams win the title as the #1 overall PS Net rating squad. 6 more were 2nd, 3 more were 3rd and the 2000 Lakers were 4th.

Post #16 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 5:41 pm

kingr wrote:I do like that this kind of shows that regular season winnings do matter. Or the champs/finalists are usually teams with a high number of wins. The champions' average was around 60 wins throughout the decades.

Which brings me to my next point.

In the past 35 years, we have seen 13 teams post the best net rating in the RS and win the title, and 15 more from the top 5. So 28/35 of the titles have posted a top 5 RS net rating.

EDIT: Champions outside of the top 5 in RS net rating over the past 35 years...

94 and 95 Rockets (only ones in the 90s); they posted the best net rating in the 94 PS and the 5th-best in 95. 2001 Lakers (this was a bit of a mirage, because they were lazy on D in the RS). They were 8th-ranked, and then posted the best O and D (and thus best net) during the postseason.

The 2006 Heat were ranked 6th in Net rating in the RS. They were the best defense in the playoffs and posted the 2nd-best Net rating during that posteason.

2010 Lakers (3rd in PS Net). 2011 Dallas (best Net in the 2011 PS). And the 2023 Nuggets were 6th in RS Net, then were the best O and the 3rd best D for the best Net rating in the 2023 playoffs.

Post #17 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:17 pm

All right, next up, let's see what else I can tease out of NBA champions. Probably gonna be too lazy to do both Finalists for now, maybe later. But I guess it's about Four Factors o'clock, isn't it? And maybe I'll redo that 80s data.

Post #18 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:50 pm

The average offensive and defensive 4 Factors for the champions in the 1980s (plus FTr on offense):

Offense

FTr: 12.3
eFG%: 2.9
TOV%: 12.7
ORB%: 8.6
FT/FGA: 11

Defense

eFG%: 4.9
TOV%: 17.5
ORB%: 8.5
FT/FGA: 4.7

The 80s included, of course, 5 Lakers titles. LA ranked 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd and 2nd in eFG%, which does influence the results some. Boston finished 3rd, 6th and 2nd. Philly was 3rd. Detroit was 6th. 84 (2nd) and 86 Boston (1st) were the only teams to finish better than 4th in DRB% and aside from 89 Detroit and those Celtics teams, everyone else was 8th or lower. Of course, that's mainly the Lakers, but Philly was 10th as well.

Post #19 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:58 pm

The average offensive and defensive 4 Factors for the champions in the 1990s (plus FTr on offense):

Offense

FTr: 20.8
eFG%: 7.1
TOV%: 7.3
ORB%: 8.9
FT/FGA: 20.0

Defense

eFG%: 6.3
TOV%: 12,4
ORB%: 10.9
FT/FGA: 7.1

Naturally, 6 titles from the Bulls dominate the decade. They were exceedingly skilled at ball protection, which isn't a surprise given that Jordan was mega high-usage and insanely good at protecting the ball. That often simply meant he got a shot off, of course, but they weren't giving up tons of points the other way and they smashed the offensive glass, particularly during the 2nd three-peat. They were 1st, 2nd and 2nd from 96-98, but even from 91-93, 4th, 5th and 1st. In their first four titles, they were also 4th, 7th, 3rd and 4th at defensive TOV%. They were 4th, 18th, 5th and 3rd in team steals during that time frame. Their shot defense got even better in the 2nd three-peat as well, unsurprisingly. Ron Harper and Dennis Rodman? Ooof.

Post #20 » by **zimpy27** » Thu Jul 25, 2024 7:59 pm

Offense over defense seems to be a 10s thing.

Pace doesn't seem to have much bearing (a little).

Regular season wins matter l, home court advantage matters