Blazers Players: Comparison / Trade Value

[PDXKnight]

Matching Thybulle to get some value for an asset is all fine, unless you get stuck with said asset, which appears to be the case? Why he is still on the team is a mystery to me, Unless they cannot even unload him now for a 2nd round pick.

The contract given to Grant is entirely on Cronin, it is clear they gave him a promise to pay him and yes, they bid against themselves, same thing they did with Simons. Now it appears that even though there may be some interest among other teams, for both of those players, they are not going to give up a lot because of those contracts.

Given Williams well-known injury, history, it is baffling to me that they did not reroute him right away, and now coming off yet another injury, teams are surprise, leery of giving much value for him

Agreed on Grant but I'm not sure why the thybulle contract is concerning? I feel a lot of contenders would like to have him as a 7th man to shore up depth and I also feel he will opt out of that final year in lieu of securing a longer term deal

[Butter]

Matching Thybulle to get some value for an asset is all fine, unless you get stuck with said asset, which appears to be the case? Why he is still on the team is a mystery to me, Unless they cannot even unload him now for a 2nd round pick.

The contract given to Grant is entirely on Cronin, it is clear they gave him a promise to pay him and yes, they bid against themselves, same thing they did with Simons. Now it appears that even though there may be some interest among other teams, for both of those players, they are not going to give up a lot because of those contracts.

Given Williams well-known injury, history, it is baffling to me that they did not reroute him right away, and now coming off yet another injury, teams are surprise, leery of giving much value for him

Agreed on Grant but I'm not sure why the thybulle contract is concerning? I feel a lot of contenders would like to have him as a 7th man to shore up depth and I also feel he will opt out of that final year in lieu of securing a longer term deal

Great, the Crone Zone should move him.

Don't get me wrong, I actually like Tice. And, my personal focus is not JUST to tank. The Blazers current payroll is just financially irresponsible based on their win percentage.

[Walton1one]

I wouldn’t say the contract for Thybulle is concerning, however he serves no purpose on this team. He is the kind of player who is a luxury on a good/playoff contending team. He is defensive stopper with limited offensive game.

He plays 24-25min a game, and with Billups as coach that likely will not change. All he does for POR is take away minutes from younger players. I understand why, I think, Cronin matched DAL, which was to retain an asset, to hopefully get some value back eventually. Why that has yet to happen is a mystery to me.

I am beginning to think that Cronin greatly underestimated the impact of the new bargaining agreement. Teams are not trading for players of marginal value with bloated\high $ contracts, instead they are signing FA, if they have cap space or executing s&t for those players if they don’t, resigning their own players to shorter (2-3yr) deals and utilizing draft picks to backfill their roster, all the more reason not to sell picks for cash.

Thybulle’s contract is not horrible, nor nearly as problematic as Grant/Ant, however given the landscape in the NBA, it sure appears to me that trading for non star players, let alone those with larger/long term contracts has become something of a last resort, which is probably why there has been fewer transactions occurring than normal.

I don’t think Cronin is going to get great/good value for the vets on this roster, and keeping them around is only going to get more problematic.

[Walton1one]

Let’s use Ant as an example, many, myself included, thought his value was 1st round+ extra in terms of value and that a team like ORL would have interest in trading for him. He is an above average offensive player, good shooter, which ORL lacks, is from there, always a plus, still young (25) on a slightly overpaid deal ($25/yr), but with only 2yrs left.

What did ORL do?

They signed KCP TO 3yr FA deal, for less money, giving up zero assets to get him. He is nowhere near the offensive player that Ant is, near end of his career and I question whether he will be impactful as they think he will be (playing with Jokic /Murray inflated his impact IMO, he won’t get that luxury in ORL).

So, older, less offense, MUCH better defense, cheaper, no assets lost. I don’t think he improves them by much a all, but not sure Simons’ would either, other than he fits better with their needs/roster/age

So where does that leave POR?

With an overpaid, offensive only player, whose offense does not make up for his defensive shortcomings, who will not come off the bench (especially for POR, bet he would for a playoff team though), where he is best suited, who takes away shots/development from younger players with his high usage, who wants to win, meaning he isn’t resigning with a rebuilding POR team when his contract expires & whose value is already declining b/c of new NBA landscape and will only continue to decline

So Cronin is left with a very fine needle to thread, he has to hope that as options dwindle or that a team with playoff aspirations loses a key player, that someone gets desperate enough to try and acquire Ant, but he is delusional if he thinks it will be at a premium. If he can get any decent draft capital (1st round pick) or a young (2nd/3rd yr) player for him, he should jump all over it, just not sure that opportunity will present itself.

This is the reality of where POR is\where Cronin’s actions put them, and dealing Grant looks to be similar/more challenging.

[Pattycakes]

I agree with TL that often discussions get bogged down around here (and elsewhere) about comparative trade values. The weird thing about that is we don't know what a player's trade value is unless he's traded, and even then ancillary parts of a trade can make that confusing

I think it's safe to say that the Blazer veterans: Grant-Ant-Ayton-Thybulle-Timelord are at most, role-playing members of a supporting cast for a good team. Not really good 3rd options but more like 4th options. The only player of that 5 that might actually alter a good team's trajectory is a healthy Timelord, and that player might not ever be

generically, I'd estimate that Grant probably has the most value; or at least be valued by the most teams because he's a wing that has been shooting 40% on three's for a couple of seasons. Wings are probably the most coveted players

The best role for Simons is as a 6th man and I'd say that's obvious. I'm not sure how many teams would be looking to have a 26M/year 6th man though. However many it is I'd think it would be more than the teams looking at Simons as a starter

Ayton's flaws and salary probably make him difficult to move

Good discussion points. And I think the Celtics have proven 2 thing:

1- championship teams need more than a Big 3
2- teams are going to have to spend big to get those players

I somewhat disagree that the Blazers are 4th best on all teams, but maybe you're right (see #1 above).

I have also come to terms that your description of Simons is probably right. I've compared him to Vinny Johnson in other threads, that may be the case.

My instinct is that the Blazers will stick with Ayton through the end of his contract. And out of all the current large contract vets, I'm ok with him starting while Clingan develops.

The big problem with all of this is that the Blazers will likely have to wait till closer to the trade deadline to move the vets, which will impact their Capture the Flagg campaign.

Cronin is probably a year too late to move some of these jokers.

IMO, Cronin made the mess with a series of blunders last summer....

* he did not have to trade for Ayton but apparently has wanted him for a couple of seasons. I count that as a mistake he made a little worse by investing a 7th pick in a backup for Ayton

* Cronin could have routed Timelord to another team, IMO, even if it was just for a couple of 2nd's. Of all the teams in the NBA, Portland is the last team that should have traded for an injury-prone big man

* Cronin did not need to sign Grant to that 5 year/160M deal. No other team would have given him a 5 years deal and no other team would have given him more than 20M/year

* Cronin did not have to match the offer sheet to Thybulle. That was utterly stupid and it hamstrings Portland's cap/tax option this year, and next year

* and after being around for longer than Olshey, Cronin should have recognized the fallacy of investing heavily in yet another undersized, no-defense starting SG like Simons. Portland failed with CJ in that role for 7 years. Now it looks like they will fail with Simons in that role for the 10th straight season

IMO, Cronin's 2023 off-season wasn't as big a disater as Olshey's 2016 off-season, but it's looking pretty bad right now

While looking at exact same touch points, I completely disagree. From my perspective, Cronin has done what it takes to acquire and keep his assets. He’s acquired high end potential without the “three years away” mentality… every player is playable now. Pending injuries of course.

My point, seems everyone falls into either “Cronin is terrible, narcissistic, dame gone etc ruined this franchise” or “I see the rebuild structure, I see the vision, I trust cronin”.

Neither side is going to understand the other completely but maybe the truth is somewhere between..

[zzaj]

Let’s use Ant as an example, many, myself included, thought his value was 1st round+ extra in terms of value and that a team like ORL would have interest in trading for him. He is an above average offensive player, good shooter, which ORL lacks, is from there, always a plus, still young (25) on a slightly overpaid deal ($25/yr), but with only 2yrs left.

What did ORL do?

They signed KCP TO 3yr FA deal, for less money, giving up zero assets to get him. He is nowhere near the offensive player that Ant is, near end of his career and I question whether he will be impactful as they think he will be (playing with Jokic /Murray inflated his impact IMO, he won’t get that luxury in ORL).

So, older, less offense, MUCH better defense, cheaper, no assets lost. I don’t think he improves them by much a all, but not sure Simons’ would either, other than he fits better with their needs/roster/age

So where does that leave POR?

With an overpaid, offensive only player, whose offense does not make up for his defensive shortcomings, who will not come off the bench (especially for POR, bet he would for a playoff team though), where he is best suited, who takes away shots/development from younger players with his high usage, who wants to win, meaning he isn’t resigning with a rebuilding POR team when his contract expires & whose value is already declining b/c of new NBA landscape and will only continue to decline

So Cronin is left with a very fine needle to thread, he has to hope that as options dwindle or that a team with playoff aspirations loses a key player, that someone gets desperate enough to try and acquire Ant, but he is delusional if he thinks it will be at a premium. If he can get any decent draft capital (1st round pick) or a young (2nd/3rd yr) player for him, he should jump all over it, just not sure that opportunity will present itself.

This is the reality of where POR is\where Cronin’s actions put them, and dealing Grant looks to be similar/more challenging.

I mentioned this as soon as the detail of the new CBA started coming out--it's going to vastly change the way GMs operate, both in the short-term and long.

Having what amounts to a passive hardcap on salaries means that unless you are a Top 3 team, GMs are unlikely to overspend...and even then it may not be worth the revenue to go too deep into the second apron. That all depends on media deal money.

IMHO, the new Meta is going to shift to teams with one or two star players surrounded by many above average, toolsy do-it-alls on budget contracts. Steph Curry is great, but having 3 players that are 70% of Steph will be better under the new CBA. That way if one goes down you still have production.

I'll say it again, Rookies that produce will be the most valuable contracts in the NBA, even though they are basically untradeable.

[m0ng0]

Some people just wanna bitch, there is nothing you can do. Everyone here is smarter than the Organization and every pick they made in their imaginary draft is correct, every coaching decision is smarter, every play they call is perfect, every substitution is the right call every time. Just smile and move on because you cannot combat the geniuses around here, just smile and nod.

[Walton1one]

It is fair criticism and Cronin took the job, is well compensated and fortunate to have the opportunity to have one of the few GM jobs in the NBA.

Not all the roster woes are his fault, but

He chose to match offer for Thybulle

He chose to offer Grant a contract he was not going to get anywhere else, money & years wise

He kept Timelord after taking him as an asset back from BOS, fully well knowing his injury history and took the risk by keeping him and not re-routing him right away

And he will be responsible for whatever POR does/ does not get back for Ant & likely, Ayton. If you think Ant is staying in POR when his contract is up, then you are as blind as Olshey was before LA left, for nothing.

Speaking of Olshey. Canzano wrote the following in an article today, that sums up Cronin/criticism

It reminds me of something former NBA General Manager Bob Whitsitt told me once. Trail Blazers GM Neil Olshey was busy complaining that free agents didn’t like to come to Portland. I called Whitsitt, who told me: “Everybody likes to have excuses. It’s a tough business. There aren’t excuses. The job is to get the job done.”

That is all I hear/read from people who defend POR/Cronin, excuses. If you are a GM you are not in the excuse making business, results matter. Cronin still has some time, but soon it will run out and he will be looking for another job.

[BlazersBroncos]

From my perspective, Cronin has done what it takes to acquire and keep his assets. He’s acquired high end potential without the “three years away” mentality… every player is playable now. Pending injuries of course.

Grant, Ayton and Simons will make a combined 90M this upcoming season. That is 65% of the salary cap. And not a single one is a clear cut '3rd best guy on a winning team' caliber talent.

They are going into their age 30, 26 and 25 seasons respectively and its overwhelmingly likely that all 3 are what they are by this age. Which is to say a trio of talented role players saddling our salary cap and taking us nowhere as they are, again, role players masquerading as leading men.

Simons should be a 6th man - and the league has shown with its low demand for guys like Clarkson, Herro, Poole, etc that scoring guards who dont do much else are not in a high demand.

Grant is a low end 3rd option at best (And only this on a team with high end 1 and 2 like DAL IMO). He is paid well, albeit not as bad as the Trade board makes him out to be. He doesnt rebound, has declined in defense as he has increased in shots taken and has not elevated any team he has joined since leaving DEN for more shots.

Ayton is a tremendous rebounder and not much of what one would or should want in a high usage C after that. His inability to get to the FT line combined with his inability to spread the floor from 3 makes him a dinosaur on offense. He doesnt block shots and has a motor that runs hot and cold depending on whether his last mid ranged jumper went in.

These guys are not high end potential dudes. We are one of the 2-3 worst teams in the West while saddling our cap with 3 non-needle moving players taking up 65% of our salary.

[zzaj]

It is fair criticism and Cronin took the job, is well compensated and fortunate to have the opportunity to have one of the few GM jobs in the NBA.

Not all the roster woes are his fault, but

He chose to match offer for Thybulle

He chose to offer Grant a contract he was not going to get anywhere else, money & years wise

He kept Timelord after taking him as an asset back from BOS, fully well knowing his injury history and took the risk by keeping him and not re-routing him right away

And he will be responsible for whatever POR does/ does not get back for Ant & likely, Ayton. If you think Ant is staying in POR when his contract is up, then you are as blind as Olshey was before LA left, for nothing.

Speaking of Olshey. Canzano wrote the following in an article today, that sums up Cronin/criticism

It reminds me of something former NBA General Manager Bob Whitsitt told me once. Trail Blazers GM Neil Olshey was busy complaining that free agents didn’t like to come to Portland. I called Whitsitt, who told me: “Everybody likes to have excuses. It’s a tough business. There aren’t excuses. The job is to get the job done.”

That is all I hear/read from people who defend POR/Cronin, excuses. If you are a GM you are not in the excuse making business, results matter. Cronin still has some time, but soon it will run out and he will be looking for another job.

I don't consider myself a Cronin apologist--I basically think of him as a less face-punchable Olshey, who doesn't start every presser answer with "Look..."

But it's important to remember that trading a player DOES take two parties and is a negotiation. None of us really have any idea about what has or hasn't happened behind closed doors.

Has Cronin demanded beyond market value for his players? Possibly. Has Cronin opted to not just give away Ant/Grant for second round picks and filler? Possibly.

Sometimes the timing of a trade maximizes a players value. Trading both of those players at the trade deadline to teams a little more desperate to make a move, could be the smart thing to do. Player value is a balance.

[Walton1one]

I agree it is a balance and there is still time to divest Ant\Grant for assets/value, but the issues with some of these players Cronin brought on himself.

As for Ant, the clock is ticking & at some point teams will devalue their offers for him even more than they have already, as I don’t think it is a surprise that Ant is very likely to leave at the end of his contract, and that is assuming that Cronin is not asking for a ridiculous return for him, which we don’t really know.

Judging by what has happened this offseason, does not bode well for waiting\patience will insure a better deal.

Many thought players would be dealt at the last trade deadline, which surprisingly did not happen, then again this offseason and he only dealt Brogdon and financial reasons were as much a driver of that deal as Avdjia (whom I like) was, and even then, many thought the acquisition cost was too much (2/3 1st’s, if you believe Brogdon was worth a late 1st, as many did ). So I am skeptical that this next trade deadline will be any different. Cronin only seems to deal when he absolutely has too, not as part of fulfilling his own vision. I sincerely hope he proves me wrong.

I think Cronin as a scout has shown himself t be good, although jury is still out, as a GM, not a good showing so far

[Tim Lehrbach]

As for Ant, the clock is ticking & at some point teams will devalue their offers for him even more than they have already, as I don’t think it is a surprise that Ant is very likely to leave at the end of his contract, and that is assuming that Cronin is not asking for a ridiculous return for him, which we don’t really know.

Yeah, despite some earlier hesitation (mostly my lack of confidence in Scoot and Sharpe), I've come around to Anfernee being the guy to move. The clock is ticking on his contract, he isn't a winning piece for the present or future, and he doesn't complement the other guards the team is trying to develop. Get what you can and move on.

Thybulle would be a nice complementary piece to help the Blazers' defensive identity if the team didn't already have others to fill his role. Move him, too, for whatever you can get.

There's still time to trade Grant later. Ayton probably has no suitors and will finish out his contract in Portland.

[Walton1one]

My concern with Cronin is that when it comes to the GM side (non draft related) he is risk adverse, thus the little/no movement in trades or overpaying his own FA.

[Tim Lehrbach]

My concern with Cronin is that when it comes to the GM side (non draft related) he is risk adverse, thus the little/no movement in trades or overpaying his own FA.

This could be valid. We see a lot of GMs operate this way, especially when it comes to retaining their own players on new, sometimes bloated contracts.

We all might believe there is little downside (risk) to moving Simons. The team is abysmal with him and can't be much worse without him going forward. Cronin may not see it that way.

If I had to bet, I'd say Simons and Ayton both walk as free agents or get resigned. I am skeptical any trades get done.

[Wizenheimer]

From my perspective, Cronin has done what it takes to acquire and keep his assets. He’s acquired high end potential without the “three years away” mentality… every player is playable now. Pending injuries of course.

"high end potential"..?? I am not sure what that means

are you talking Sharpe-Scoot-Clingan? Well yeah there may be high end potential with those guys although both Sharpe and Scoot have spent plenty of time being on the low end of playable. By the way, Banton was playable at the end of last season; so was Minaya.

but where is the "high end potential" in the 5 veterans the Blazers will pay 104M next season. Does Grant have high end potential? Thybulle? Ant? Ayton? Timelord's knees? Is there really any significant upside with any of those players or are they at the 'what-you-see-is-what-you-get' stage? Grant is 30; Thybulle and Timelord will be 27 next season; Ayton is 26; Ant is 25. 4 of those 5 players are avverage NBA age or older

it took 46 wins just to make the 10th seed in the play-in last season. Is there anybody that realistically believes the Blazers will finish next season 5 games over .500?

[BlazersBroncos]

I think Simons has not been moved because he simply isnt valued around the league. Miami has been dangling a similar player in Herro for the past 2 years basically and have found no takers.

Simons is in that tier of guys that includes Herro, DLo, Poole, Clarkson - hell even LaVine could be in this bucket. Offensive only guards who are not creators, are not defenders, are not 'do the little things' guys. I wouldnt be surprised if we cant find a FRP offer for Simons right now. The devaluation of guys with his skillset on top of the general lack of teams around the league having the right salary ballast and team needs for a pure scoring SG are pretty obvious.

I think Grant could have a suitor in LAL and generally as a tall, 3PT shooting forward has more demand than Simons. But I dont see many teams outside LAL with the right salary ballast to match contracts. My fingers are crossed that LeGM gets back from the Olympics and demands a move - and IMO if that happens Grant will be at or near the top of the list.

Ayton I see little to no market for similar reasons as Simons - teams are not banging down the door for a C on a max deal that doesnt get to the FT line, doesnt stretch the floor from 3 and doesnt protect the rim.

Basically I think Grant can pull a FRP if the planets align (IE LAL). I think Simons and Ayton are closer to 'matching expiring salary and some SRP' range. I dont agree with that valuation, so I would not trade those 2 and hope the league shakes a bit and they become more valued (I can see this with Simons more so than Ayton). I dont think either are super valuable - but if I cant get at least a LP FRP, I dont move them. (What we really need is the FO to push Billups to move Simons to the bench and make the 3rd year Sharpe sink or swim as a starter - we need to know if he is worth an extension and part of the future)

I see little chance anyone on the roster outside Grant is moved prior to the season. I just dont see a market for Simons or Ayton - and I also am not convinced the FO even has either on the block.

FWIW - as for Matisse, I assume his value is in the SRP range. I would keep him and just use him as a tone setter for the kids. Give him 15-18mpg as a disruptor and just let him walk when its done.

[zzaj]

I see little chance anyone on the roster outside Grant is moved prior to the season. I just dont see a market for Simons or Ayton - and I also am not convinced the FO even has either on the block.

I agree with your valuations...but I disagree that there's even a slim chance Grant is moved prior to the season--for no other reason than there is nobody on the roster that Grant is keeping "development" time from. Or at least nobody that the Blazers probably view as the future starting PF for the team. Camara is probably closest to fitting that bill, and IIRC played the majority of his minutes at the 4 last year...but he plays like a natural SF, and likely his best role will be coming off the bench behind Deni.

I think it's much more likely that nobody gets traded before the start of the season (as you say), and Grant and Simons get traded at the deadline.

[BlazersBroncos]

I see little chance anyone on the roster outside Grant is moved prior to the season. I just dont see a market for Simons or Ayton - and I also am not convinced the FO even has either on the block.

I agree with your valuations...but I disagree that there's even a slim chance Grant is moved prior to the season--for no other reason than there is nobody on the roster that Grant is keeping "development" time from. Or at least nobody that the Blazers probably view as the future starting PF for the team. Camara is probably closest to fitting that bill, and IIRC played the majority of his minutes at the 4 last year...but he plays like a natural SF, and likely his best role will be coming off the bench behind Deni.

I think it's much more likely that nobody gets traded before the start of the season (as you say), and Grant and Simons get traded at the deadline.

Ya I can see that. I was thinking specifically LAL regarding Grant. I see no other teams really in play prior to the season starting.

If LAL is down for a deal where the meat of the trade is basically Grant for Rui and a pick - I take that and run. Rui is younger, decent and the FO can spin him as a 'young player with potential' to justify what really is a trade of Grant for a FRP. I think that face saving is something the current managment would hold as valuable. They want people to keep coming to games and burning a 20ppg guy like Grant just for ballast and a FRP will be hard to spin. I think Rui gives them someone to lean on to help justify a lose-now move of trading Grant.

But realistically, I dont see LAL making the move. And the whispers that Cronin is asking for 2 FRP for Grant basically make any Grant deal unworkable as no team in their right mind would do such a trade.

[Walton1one]

You could be right about Simons’ valuation right now, Problem is he’s going to walk when he becomes a FA, so he needs to be dealt sometime in the near future.

It made me wonder about the rumor a while back that DET had made some inquiries about Simons. It could make sense, some sort of player swap (no picks or minor picks/2nd’s exchanged).

DET has a lot of athletes and not a lot of shooting, I also suspect that they are under a new directive to start winning, after so many losing seasons and poor lottery luck.

A straight up exchange of Simons for THJ & Ivey could make sense, could not happen until late August though

DET gets Simons, another shooter to add to their athletic non shooting core, better fit with Cade, age wise fit with their core

Ivey is very similar to a lot of the other players they have like Cade, Ausar, Holland & Sasser. Replacing him with a shooter like Ant could make sense

And like Portland, his contract is up in two years so they have a decision to make, and you wonder if

POR exchanges 25yr old Simons for younger prospect in Ivey, who is 22, fits with younger core & more moveable perhaps if the fit is not good, also allows Scoot/Sharpe to start, which should be the preference

[BlazersBroncos]

I personally would hold onto Simons until the trade deadline of his final year, even if it means settling for a EC and some SRP, over moving him for THJ and Ivey today.

I think Ivey stinks.