How Many Wins?

[meekrab]

Fanduel has the over/under set at 27.5

I think they win around 30

ESPN's over/under is 30.5, so that sounds about right. It's pretty hard to outguess the Vegas consensus. This board rarely accomplishes that task, as almost always it comes in too high. Which of course is not a surprise for a fan board.

'Vegas' is not one entity, but both of the books tracked by VegasInsider have our line in the high 20s now, apparently lots of people took the under when it opened at 30.5.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/

[WindyCityBorn]

30 wins.

[WindyCityBorn]

No DDR/Caruso has a paralyzing effect, 20-24

You overrate their impact tremendously. Those guys aren’t worth 16-20 wins. That’s superstar impact.

[WindyCityBorn]

We will unlock important offensive things and I expect our production to improve quite a bit there.

But our defense is a joke. I see no way balancing both sides of the ball we actually improve our win total. But as someone who considers priority #1 to be keeping the SA pick, I’m not at all comfortable with Lavine on the roster and Ball possibly playing. I’m a little bit uneasy about the whole thing.

If LaVine playing THAT well we will unload him for a big haul by midseason.

[chitownsports4ever]

24-29

I think some people are really underestimating how important DDR, Drummond and Caruso were to us winning the games we did.

Thats true if we were gonna still play that style and thats where I think a lot of people are overstating the loss of those . The removal of those 3 changes the entire style of basketball that this team will play

[Muzbar]

We will unlock important offensive things and I expect our production to improve quite a bit there.

But our defense is a joke. I see no way balancing both sides of the ball we actually improve our win total. But as someone who considers priority #1 to be keeping the SA pick, I’m not at all comfortable with Lavine on the roster and Ball possibly playing. I’m a little bit uneasy about the whole thing.

If LaVine playing THAT well we will unload him for a big haul by midseason.

No one is offering a 'big haul' for Zach LaVine.

He's here to stay.

[leo921]

to keep our pick I would hope for somewhere in the range of 22-28.
We should do everything possible not to get above 28 wins.

I know AKME where not around previously but the 2 worst things that could happen to
the Bulls are to lose our pick or to keep picking 7th and lose out on young stars who
can help us compete in the future.

I would also do everything possible to lose the Nets, Pistons, Hornets, Blazers, Wizards games.
Those can be rest days for Lavine/Vuc/White/Giddy so we can look at our other talent

[WindyCityBorn]

We will unlock important offensive things and I expect our production to improve quite a bit there.

But our defense is a joke. I see no way balancing both sides of the ball we actually improve our win total. But as someone who considers priority #1 to be keeping the SA pick, I’m not at all comfortable with Lavine on the roster and Ball possibly playing. I’m a little bit uneasy about the whole thing.

If LaVine playing THAT well we will unload him for a big haul by midseason.

No one is offering a 'big haul' for Zach LaVine.

He's here to stay.

So no matter how well he plays no one will want him? I disagree. If he comes back averaging 25 ppg on 50/40/85 and we are playing around .500 ball his value will bounce back.

[kulaz3000]

If LaVine playing THAT well we will unload him for a big haul by midseason.

No one is offering a 'big haul' for Zach LaVine.

He's here to stay.

So no matter how well he plays no one will want him? I disagree. If he comes back averaging 25 ppg on 50/40/85 and we are playing around .500 ball his value will bounce back.

Agreed. We may not get a haul for him, but you're going to get at least a handful of veteran team on the outskirts of the playoffs, wanting to make a push by adding him. Again, we aren't going to get a haul, but his value provided he plays well, means we won't need to add our own picks, or take back just pure salary in return for him.

At this stage, if we can get us filler contracts, and a single protected first round pick, that would be a huge win for us. We need to wait, until we at least get a first round pick, or a handful of seconds.

[WindyCityBorn]

No one is offering a 'big haul' for Zach LaVine.

He's here to stay.

So no matter how well he plays no one will want him? I disagree. If he comes back averaging 25 ppg on 50/40/85 and we are playing around .500 ball his value will bounce back.

Agreed. We may not get a haul for him, but you're going to get at least a handful of veteran team on the outskirts of the playoffs, wanting to make a push by adding him. Again, we aren't going to get a haul, but his value provided he plays well, means we won't need to add our own picks, or take back just pure salary in return for him.

At this stage, if we can get us filler contracts, and a single protected first round pick, that would be a huge win for us. We need to wait, until we at least get a first round pick, or a handful of seconds.

By a “haul” I meant two 1sts or a 1st and good young prospect. Nothing wild like four 1sts.

I would not trade him for expiring or seconds if he is playing at the level I described.

[Muzbar]

So no matter how well he . one will want him? I disagree. If he comes back averaging 25 ppg on 50/40/85 and we are playing around .500 ball his value will bounce back.

Agreed. We may not get a haul for him, but you're going to get at least a handful of veteran team on the outskirts of the playoffs, wanting to make a push by adding him. Again, we aren't going to get a haul, but his value provided he plays well, means we won't need to add our own picks, or take back just pure salary in return for him.

At this stage, if we can get us filler contracts, and a single protected first round pick, that would be a huge win for us. We need to wait, until we at least get a first round pick, or a handful of seconds.

By a “haul” I meant two 1sts or a 1st and good young prospect. Nothing wild like four 1sts.

I would not trade him for expiring or seconds if he is playing at the level I described.

Teams still need to match his contract, there aren't many teams out there that can do that without giving up an already rotational player.

Even if Zach is putting up 27/5/5, which I believe is very possible, and stays healthy, unless he's got the Bulls playing .500 or above ball I don't see any team giving up multiple 1sts or a 1st and a 'good' young player for Zach LaVine.

As I mentioned above, his salary (43m) still needs to be matched.

Do teams want to pay 43+m over the next 3 years for a 3rd banana?

[Muzbar]

We will unlock important offensive things and I expect our production to improve quite a bit there.

But our defense is a joke. I see no way balancing both sides of the ball we actually improve our win total. But as someone who considers priority #1 to be keeping the SA pick, I’m not at all comfortable with Lavine on the roster and Ball possibly playing. I’m a little bit uneasy about the whole thing.

Yeah, having a healthy LaVine and Ball (especially Ball) on the roster is one of the reasons I think they'll get in that 30+ win range, Zach will be the no. 1 guy, free to score at will and Ball (if healthy) is going to provide efficient 3pt shooting, defense and additional playmaking.

Keeping that pick owed to SA is no. 1 on my priority list also, Ball and Zach endanger that.

[NZB2323]

They won 39 games last year and I think they will be better. The entire system has changed and they fit each other much better. I don't see how they don't improve from last years number.

DDR and Caruso were our 2 best players last year.

The Bulls being good enough to lose our pick but bad enough to not make the playoffs would be the most AKME Bulls move ever.

[vxmike]

24-29

I think some people are really underestimating how important DDR, Drummond and Caruso were to us winning the games we did.

Agree. They are losing three of their top five players from last season. My guess is this team has a 25 win ceiling.

[sco]

In thinking more micro about it:

Losing Demar, Caruso: -20 wins
Adding Zach back: +7 wins
Adding Giddey: +5 wins
Replacing Drummond with Smith: No impact
Adding a healthy Ball for 15 MPG: +4 wins
Playing a rookie Matas 18 MPG: -3 wins
Internal improvement from Coby, Ayo, Pat, etc: +3 wins

So that puts us at net -4 wins or at 35 wins.

Line-ups will matter as IMO, our defense will suck.
If we started Smith over Vuc (which we probably won't): +4 wins
If we started Ayo over Coby (which we probably won't): +4 wins

So we could get up to 43 wins.

[ChettheJet]

With Lavine and Vuc still around it depends on if they can keep the ball out of their hands and keep it moving so the offense flows and runs more. That's my 35-39 vote. Those two need to take a step back from needing to get their stats and let the future of Giddey, White, Williams, Dosunmu, Smith and Phillips take control of the team. That may or may not be possible. If Billy's offense puts Lavine in the corner shooting wide open 3's instead of Patrick who plays at the elbow and makes more drives and takes more shots they might look better.

If by some miracle they can move either or both of Lavine and Vuc I think the team can come together better as a group and grow as individuals. It really doesn't matter who they get back for the pair of veterans it's who steps up to fill the hole created by their departure.

To me Vuc seems more attractive to another team if he scores fewer points, but shoots a higher percentage, still rebounds, nothing can be done about his defense or the perception of his bad defense. Lavine besides being healthy likewise, needs to not try to average 28ppg but take fewer iso shots, show he's willing to pass the ball, make a higher percentage and at least look active on defense.

[FriedRise]

On the fence between 25-29 or 30-34, but I voted the latter. I don't see them winning fewer than 25; that would require the roster to consist mostly of the 75% of Zach's former teammates that are no longer in the league type, and I don't think we have that.

I like the potential and fit of this roster compared to the past, but we also took a few steps back in terms of talent level from a team that was already in the bottom 10.

- If Zach plays angry, motivated basketball because of all the slander to his name he's been hearing all year, I think that more or less will cancel out the contribution that DeMar provided
- Vooch could have a bounce back year offensively now that he doesn't have to share space with DeMar and being fed the ball in his spots
- Coby could have a more consistent season now that he doesn't have to shoulder the playmaking duties as much, maybe step it up more defensively
- AC's and Drummond's impact is hard to quantify as both are incredible floor raisers that will keep you in the game, and we don't have them anymore. I think that'll be the hardest thing to replace

What I wanna see is a more modern and competent offense that's bottomed out by horrendous defense as that is our key to collect Ls to stay in the lottery, but with that said, I can't say that we're that deficient on players who can play defense either. They're young, but between Terry, Philips, Ayo, Pat, Craig, Lonzo, Duarte, maybe Smith(?), we have players who can theoretically guard multiple positions.

[coldfish]

Fun stat: The Bulls went 7-4 in OT games last year. Almost 20% of their wins were in OT.

If the team scores 1 less point in regulation in those games, its 7 less wins.

I agree with those saying Caruso, Derozan and Drummond are big losses. 28 wins.

[KissedByaRose1]

35 wins. I have a sneaky feeling Giddey is going to play awesome and make us look much better than we are for a bit. Which while fun in the short term is devastating in the Cooper Flagg draft. We really need to dump Lavine/Vooch as soon as possible if their value gets rehabilitated at all.

[weneeda2guard]

There will be a crap load of teams tanking and bottoming out especially after the all star break. So it will depend on what we have here and what pride they will have. Yes Coby ayo giddy matas pwill and lavine (if he still here) is enough to beat really horrible teams trying to tank.

With that said I think 35 wins is where we land. Another 7th pick another huge L for the tankers who will say we didn't tank right.