How Many Wins?

[pipfan]

I actually REALLY like the idea of going into next summer (assuming we can dump Lavine for expirings) with
Guards-White/Ayo/Giddy
Forwards-Bailey or Flagg (we get a top 2 pick)/Matas/Williams
Center-Smith and Vuc (I assume he’ll be around, harmless expiring)

We’d have a LOT of cap space too-that’s a nice core to build with. We REALLY need to tank

[kodo]

We may start off OK because Derozan only scores on only 1% higher TS than the entire team (kinda surprising since most of the team is pretty bad at scoring, Terry Carter Philips etc.) and Lavine is almost always higher TS than DDR.

But I assume Lavine will be traded mid season, and that usually signals focusing on the draft. The season before, Portland was an 8th seed in the first half. They sat Lillard to eventually trade him, and got down low enough for a #3 pick. Looks like they started 17-13, a 57% win rate would be a solid playoff team in the EC.

I actually believe the biggest loss is Drummond. AC was a favorite for sure but we've got more redundancy on guards with Ayo. Just cherry picking an example, on the ATL game in Feb Caruso was out. Ayo started. Coby was 1-5 from 3. We won because Ayo went for 29 & 7 with 5-7 from 3 on top of hounding Trae into a 3-14 night. On the subjective "this guy single handedly won us the game on both ends" factor, Ayo has more Ws than Caruso who is a 3&D guy. The loss of Caruso will always greatly hurt but we're a bit better equipped on guards.

Drummond was key to making our center position usable. Bball-ref said he was our most important player by net rating. Smith is not really a true center like Andre, he's more of a stretch 5 like Vuc and that's the opposite of what we need. His big draw is that insane 42% 3P shooting as a center, but we've seen this movie before where a great 3P shooter comes to the Bulls and shoots more like Dalen Terry.

[HomoSapien]

We replaced DeRozan, Caruso, and Drummond with LaVine, Giddey, and Smith.

Matas and Ball are x-factors. A healthy Patrick Williams gives us front-court depth we severely lacked. We probably get a bounceback year from Vuc and potentially determined play from LaVine.

Offense will flow better. Defense will be worse. I also think this team will give up more than the previous squad that seemed to at least battle it out.

30-34 wins feels about right.

[burlydee]

They could be about the same. But the thing I go back to are

1. They won a disproportionate amount of clutch games and traded 2 best clutch players.

2. They will probably be worse in half court and defensively. I think they'll lose more games by blowout, especially against good teams.

3. They got younger, much younger in key positions.

I think that could result in a dramatic drop in wins even if talent level isn't that different. I think 28-31 wins.

[Lexluthor]

Either 28 or 29 wins

[ShadyMoney]

We will unlock important offensive things and I expect our production to improve quite a bit there.

But our defense is a joke. I see no way balancing both sides of the ball we actually improve our win total. But as someone who considers priority #1 to be keeping the SA pick, I’m not at all comfortable with Lavine on the roster and Ball possibly playing. I’m a little bit uneasy about the whole thing.

They will be paid NOT to play

And the correct answer has to be in the Teens

We need that SA pick to be successful

I sat thru decades of that 2003 blunder by not being able to get a good pick for whatever reasons they were.

I don’t want a repeat of that.

Top 3 pick is the only way to get us out of this jam.

[ShadyMoney]

We replaced DeRozan, Caruso, and Drummond with LaVine, Giddey, and Smith.

Matas and Ball are x-factors. A healthy Patrick Williams gives us front-court depth we severely lacked. We probably get a bounceback year from Vuc and potentially determined play from LaVine.

Offense will flow better. Defense will be worse. I also think this team will give up more than the previous squad that seemed to at least battle it out.

30-34 wins feels about right.

Cool

With all that said, what PLACE do you see them finishing in the Central Division?

[HomoSapien]

We replaced DeRozan, Caruso, and Drummond with LaVine, Giddey, and Smith.

Matas and Ball are x-factors. A healthy Patrick Williams gives us front-court depth we severely lacked. We probably get a bounceback year from Vuc and potentially determined play from LaVine.

Offense will flow better. Defense will be worse. I also think this team will give up more than the previous squad that seemed to at least battle it out.

30-34 wins feels about right.

Cool

With all that said, what PLACE do you see them finishing in the Central Division?

In the Central Division, we'll still finish 4th. In the East, I would say the Hornets, Nets, Hawks, Pistons, and Wizards will all be worse than us.

[aguifs]

We have no D.

25 wins

[Muzbar]

We replaced DeRozan, Caruso, and Drummond with LaVine, Giddey, and Smith.

Matas and Ball are x-factors. A healthy Patrick Williams gives us front-court depth we severely lacked. We probably get a bounceback year from Vuc and potentially determined play from LaVine.

Offense will flow better. Defense will be worse. I also think this team will give up more than the previous squad that seemed to at least battle it out.

30-34 wins feels about right.

Cool

With all that said, what PLACE do you see them finishing in the Central Division?

In the Central Division, we'll still finish 4th. In the East, I would say the Hornets, Nets, Hawks, Pistons, and Wizards will all be worse than us.

You think the Hawks will be worse than the Bulls, I just don't see it, they'll be in play-in range again.

[TFJava]

45 wins, if Zach Lavine stays and his healthy, plays most of the season, minus getting rest days. NBA play-in tournament. Could sneak in the first round.

[jacoby1us]

Anything over 20 is a failed tank job, like what are we doing trying to win games?

[FriedRise]

How many teams in the East do y'all think are worse than the Bulls?

These teams had worse record than Chicago last year:
Atlanta, Brooklyn, Toronto, Charlotte, Washington, Detroit

[jacoby1us]

How many teams in the East do y'all think are worse than the Bulls?

These teams had worse record than Chicago last year:
Atlanta, Brooklyn, Toronto, Charlotte, Washington, Detroit

Atlanta, Detroit and Charlotte will be better than Chicago this year, we have no business TRYING to win over 15 games. I want Cooper Flagg like a fat kid wants to eat all of his halloween candy on HALLOWEEN!

[Muzbar]

How many teams in the East do y'all think are worse than the Bulls?

These teams had worse record than Chicago last year:
Atlanta, Brooklyn, Toronto, Charlotte, Washington, Detroit

Atlanta, Detroit and Charlotte will be better than Chicago this year, we have no business TRYING to win over 15 games. I want Cooper Flagg like a fat kid wants to eat all of his halloween candy on HALLOWEEN!

I don't see Charlotte and Detroit being better than Chicago, they won 21 and 14 games respectively last season and neither team added big pieces to push them further.

[Dez]

How many teams in the East do y'all think are worse than the Bulls?

These teams had worse record than Chicago last year:
Atlanta, Brooklyn, Toronto, Charlotte, Washington, Detroit

Atlanta, Detroit and Charlotte will be better than Chicago this year, we have no business TRYING to win over 15 games. I want Cooper Flagg like a fat kid wants to eat all of his halloween candy on HALLOWEEN!

I don't see Charlotte and Detroit being better than Chicago, they won 21 and 14 games respectively last season and neither team added big pieces to push them further.

LaMelo coming back and Miller developing I could quite easily see them surpassing us. Detroit did add some useful pieces and got rid of Monty Williams which is a plus in itself. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Pistons improve quite a bit.

[Muzbar]

Atlanta, Detroit and Charlotte will be better than Chicago this year, we have no business TRYING to win over 15 games. I want Cooper Flagg like a fat kid wants to eat all of his halloween candy on HALLOWEEN!

I don't see Charlotte and Detroit being better than Chicago, they won 21 and 14 games respectively last season and neither team added big pieces to push them further.

LaMelo coming back and Miller developing I could quite easily see them surpassing us. Detroit did add some useful pieces and got rid of Monty Williams which is a plus in itself. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Pistons improve quite a bit.

But how much will LaMelo play? He's not very durable. Miller is entering his 2nd year, not sure he'll do too much to improve their record not to mention they traded one of their top scorers in Rozier last season plus they just added Salaun who won't contribute much.

Detroit added Harris, Beasley, THJ amongst others, these aren't needle moving players, but they are good vets for the most part.

I hope they are better than the Bulls, but like the Bulls they know this is a good draft.

[ChiTownHero1992]

I think they find a way to have 2-3 overachieving stretches that put them in the 30-35 win area and keep AKME's dream alive that they're "playoff worthy"

[Infinity2152]

Revisited this thought today. The Bulls are not constructed to tank. Defense is far less of a priority than offense, nowadays. With Vuc and Lavine, you have 2 guys that will average around 45 when healthy, add around another 20 for White. Derozan's clutch factor aside, Giddey's playmaking should match that impact. Talentwise, think we're still a middle of the pack team, at least in the East. If Ball is averaging 20 mins by mid season and we have no major injuries to starters, we're in the playoffs, and MIGHT not even need the play in to make it. Should expect improvements from every single young player, and Carter had a horrible season last year, could bounce back. Offensive flow should be much better and faster with Giddey getting Derozan's minutes.

Nuggets start Jokic, Murray, and Porter Jr, three below average defenders, and won a championship, with Aaron Gordon playing the Pat Will spot. When the Bulls have Ayo, Williams, Smith on the floor, they will be good defensively. Adding Matas, Smith, Giddey and even Lofton Jr, plus (biggest of all) allegedly offering Derozan a contract, not a single move they've made this summer lends to tanking, or focusing on future assets. Does a tanking team trade Caruso for Giddey? They clearly need Lavine and Giddey to have great years, need Vuc to have one too if they want to move him. They're still trying to win as many games as possible.

Giddey's impact is underestimated. When people look at his last year stats, they miss the fact he only played 25 minutes a game, vs 31 the year before. He didn't fall off last year. Per 36,
year 2: 19 pts, 9 rbs, 7 assists, 48% from field, 33% from three, .9 steals, .5 blocks.
Last year: 18 pts, 9 rbs, 7 assists, 48% from the field, 34% from three, .9 steals, .8 blocks.

At 20 and 21. This kid has potential to be a real beast, like high level All-Star beast. 1A player beast.

[bullskokie]

82 wins….. total for 3 seasons!