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Olympics - OQT

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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#141 » by Knightro » Wed Jul 31, 2024 12:21 pm

Skybox wrote:Franz is great but I also distinctly remember that he wasn’t known to be a decent shooter coming out of Michigan. More of a Swiss Army knife type that wasn’t THAT exciting a pick. The next relevant development I remember is TRoss, during camp, talking about what a spectacular shooter Franz is - that got me excited. His rookie year, largely due to injuries and roster composition, he played more like a (Ingles-style) PG than anything and I don’t recall the obvious flatness to his shot (he was ROY over the first half IMO- until Cole was given the ball)…

He’s so good at everything else, still so young…I’m confident that he can work his shot into shape. He’s a willing shooter and that’s half the battle, imo. The guys that KNOW they wont make it and wont even take the shot area whole different category.


The list of guys who are mid 80s from the free-throw line and have shown incredible touch around the basket, but can’t shoot from 3PT range is so small that I just don’t think that’s going to be what it is for Franz moving forward.

It would be really unprecedented for a guy to be that good from the line, that good at the rim, that good from floater range and just lousy from 23 feet. It just isn’t likely to me.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#142 » by pepe1991 » Wed Jul 31, 2024 12:59 pm

Knightro wrote:
Skybox wrote:Franz is great but I also distinctly remember that he wasn’t known to be a decent shooter coming out of Michigan. More of a Swiss Army knife type that wasn’t THAT exciting a pick. The next relevant development I remember is TRoss, during camp, talking about what a spectacular shooter Franz is - that got me excited. His rookie year, largely due to injuries and roster composition, he played more like a (Ingles-style) PG than anything and I don’t recall the obvious flatness to his shot (he was ROY over the first half IMO- until Cole was given the ball)…

He’s so good at everything else, still so young…I’m confident that he can work his shot into shape. He’s a willing shooter and that’s half the battle, imo. The guys that KNOW they wont make it and wont even take the shot area whole different category.


The list of guys who are mid 80s from the free-throw line and have shown incredible touch around the basket, but can’t shoot from 3PT range is so small that I just don’t think that’s going to be what it is for Franz moving forward.

It would be really unprecedented for a guy to be that good from the line, that good at the rim, that good from floater range and just lousy from 23 feet. It just isn’t likely to me.


There are more players than you think who are +80% for FT for career and just average to below average outside shooters for career, among most noticable names you have Butler, Jaren Jackson, Davis, Ja Morant, Derozan, Jaren Jackson, hell our buddy Jeff Green is career 80% FT & 33% 3 point shooter.

Also Franz isn't only Wagner who can't shoot 3s but hits FT%. Mortiz is now career 82% Ft, 32% three point shooter.

Westbrook, for 8 years was both, very good FT shooter and dreadful 3 point shooter. Than he forgot how to shoot FTs as well.

Also what's good nba outside shooter changed. In past 34% for 3 was okey, now it's below league's average.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#143 » by tooler » Wed Jul 31, 2024 1:25 pm

I'm not ready to give up on his shooting for the rest of his career. But I don't know if it will be solved this summer.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#144 » by pepe1991 » Wed Jul 31, 2024 1:43 pm

Imo Franz will be okey shooter. Some 34%-36% for career, nothing mindblowing, but not as bad as 28%.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#145 » by Audi » Wed Jul 31, 2024 1:53 pm

I remember when Paolo shot 3% from 3 for an entire month and then went on to shoot 40% from 3 in the playoffs when it mattered most.

I'm not worried about Franz.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#146 » by Skybox » Wed Jul 31, 2024 2:43 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Imo Franz will be okey shooter. Some 34%-36% for career, nothing mindblowing, but not as bad as 28%.


Yeah...and 34-36 on 4 or 5 attempts is still a much more formidable defensive problem than guys shooting 40% on 1-2 attempts per game. Particularly, if the guy is such a huge threat going to the rim.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#147 » by thelead » Wed Jul 31, 2024 2:55 pm

Knightro wrote:
thelead wrote:
DiplomaticMagic wrote:If Franz cant shoot 3s than he shouldnt have gotten the max.

Franz getting a max was an absolute overpay but the FO is obviously banking on his development. It’s all on Franz now.


This feels an bit extreme.

Franz is a damn good basketball player and has been wildly impactful to winning games over the last two years.

Of course we all want him to make more threes, and I believe that he will, but a lot of people act like he had a bad season last year and he just didn’t.

Literally everything got better in year three from year two except for one thing. Now admittedly the one thing that didn’t get better is a massively important thing, but he showed very real growth in other areas.

We both know that he’s not currently worth $45 mil per. I get that it’s the way NBA contracts are given out to promising young players but it doesn’t change the fact that he isn’t worth that amount of money today. That’s all-star money, at minimum, and he isn’t there yet. We all hope, and believe, that he’ll get there one day but he’s not there yet.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#148 » by Knightro » Wed Jul 31, 2024 3:51 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
Knightro wrote:
Skybox wrote:Franz is great but I also distinctly remember that he wasn’t known to be a decent shooter coming out of Michigan. More of a Swiss Army knife type that wasn’t THAT exciting a pick. The next relevant development I remember is TRoss, during camp, talking about what a spectacular shooter Franz is - that got me excited. His rookie year, largely due to injuries and roster composition, he played more like a (Ingles-style) PG than anything and I don’t recall the obvious flatness to his shot (he was ROY over the first half IMO- until Cole was given the ball)…

He’s so good at everything else, still so young…I’m confident that he can work his shot into shape. He’s a willing shooter and that’s half the battle, imo. The guys that KNOW they wont make it and wont even take the shot area whole different category.


The list of guys who are mid 80s from the free-throw line and have shown incredible touch around the basket, but can’t shoot from 3PT range is so small that I just don’t think that’s going to be what it is for Franz moving forward.

It would be really unprecedented for a guy to be that good from the line, that good at the rim, that good from floater range and just lousy from 23 feet. It just isn’t likely to me.


There are more players than you think who are +80% for FT for career and just average to below average outside shooters for career, among most noticable names you have Butler, Jaren Jackson, Davis, Ja Morant, Derozan, Jaren Jackson, hell our buddy Jeff Green is career 80% FT & 33% 3 point shooter.

Also Franz isn't only Wagner who can't shoot 3s but hits FT%. Mortiz is now career 82% Ft, 32% three point shooter.

Westbrook, for 8 years was both, very good FT shooter and dreadful 3 point shooter. Than he forgot how to shoot FTs as well.

Also what's good nba outside shooter changed. In past 34% for 3 was okey, now it's below league's average.


There's a big difference between 80% and 85% from the FT line though. 85% is elite. 80% is not.

Franz shot 85% from the FT line last year. He was the only player in the league who shot 85% from the 3PT and under 30% from 3PT. Literally the only one.

There have only been 16 players in the history of the NBA who have been 85% from the FT line and sub 30% from the 3PT line (minimum 100 attempts of both)

Franz Wagner 23-24
Jimmy Butler 20-21 and 21-22
Mario Chalmers 17-18
Jeff Green 16-17
Jeremy Lamb 16-17
Jarrett Jack 14-15
Sam Cassell 04-05
Austin Croshere 04-05
Richard Hamilton 00-01
Jerry Stackhouse 98-99 and 05-06
Spud Webb 92-93
Micheal Williams 92-93
Eddie Johnson 91-92
Ricky Pierce 91-92
Reggie Theus 89-90
Chris Mullin 88-89

If you set the criteria to the last decade when the three point shot really took off and every single position in the league basically began practicing them and attempting them, you're talking six players total.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#149 » by Knightro » Wed Jul 31, 2024 3:59 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Imo Franz will be okey shooter. Some 34%-36% for career, nothing mindblowing, but not as bad as 28%.


If Franz had shot 36% from 3PT last year, he'd have averaged 20.8 PPG on a 60.6 TS%.

17 players did that last year in the NBA. 13 of them were all-stars.

The point is, Franz is so good at everything else already that he doesn't even have to become an above average 3PT shooter to be one of the best players in the league. Just get to average!
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#150 » by eyriq » Wed Jul 31, 2024 4:30 pm

Knightro wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
Knightro wrote:
The list of guys who are mid 80s from the free-throw line and have shown incredible touch around the basket, but can’t shoot from 3PT range is so small that I just don’t think that’s going to be what it is for Franz moving forward.

It would be really unprecedented for a guy to be that good from the line, that good at the rim, that good from floater range and just lousy from 23 feet. It just isn’t likely to me.


There are more players than you think who are +80% for FT for career and just average to below average outside shooters for career, among most noticable names you have Butler, Jaren Jackson, Davis, Ja Morant, Derozan, Jaren Jackson, hell our buddy Jeff Green is career 80% FT & 33% 3 point shooter.

Also Franz isn't only Wagner who can't shoot 3s but hits FT%. Mortiz is now career 82% Ft, 32% three point shooter.

Westbrook, for 8 years was both, very good FT shooter and dreadful 3 point shooter. Than he forgot how to shoot FTs as well.

Also what's good nba outside shooter changed. In past 34% for 3 was okey, now it's below league's average.


There's a big difference between 80% and 85% from the FT line though. 85% is elite. 80% is not.

Franz shot 85% from the FT line last year. He was the only player in the league who shot 85% from the 3PT and under 30% from 3PT. Literally the only one.

There have only been 16 players in the history of the NBA who have been 85% from the FT line and sub 30% from the 3PT line (minimum 100 attempts of both)

Franz Wagner 23-24
Jimmy Butler 20-21 and 21-22
Mario Chalmers 17-18
Jeff Green 16-17
Jeremy Lamb 16-17
Jarrett Jack 14-15
Sam Cassell 04-05
Austin Croshere 04-05
Richard Hamilton 00-01
Jerry Stackhouse 98-99 and 05-06
Spud Webb 92-93
Micheal Williams 92-93
Eddie Johnson 91-92
Ricky Pierce 91-92
Reggie Theus 89-90
Chris Mullin 88-89

If you set the criteria to the last decade when the three point shot really took off and every single position in the league basically began practicing them and attempting them, you're talking six players total.
Knightro wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Imo Franz will be okey shooter. Some 34%-36% for career, nothing mindblowing, but not as bad as 28%.


If Franz had shot 36% from 3PT last year, he'd have averaged 20.8 PPG on a 60.6 TS%.

17 players did that last year in the NBA. 13 of them were all-stars.

The point is, Franz is so good at everything else already that he doesn't even have to become an above average 3PT shooter to be one of the best players in the league. Just get to average!
Convincing argument. Franz is a good shooter, things will come around.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#151 » by Knightro » Wed Jul 31, 2024 4:32 pm

Here's another one for you...

Franz Wagner is the only player in the history of NBA basketball to shoot 57% or better from 2PT, 85% or better from FT and sub 30% from 3PT (100 attempts minimum 3PT/FT).

The only one.

His three point struggles last year were literally unprecedented.

He will uptick this year. I'm supremely confident of that.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#152 » by KillMonger » Wed Jul 31, 2024 4:45 pm

Locked in for Germany vs France, the game actually falls on a day off from work for me so I get to watch.

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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#153 » by Knightro » Wed Jul 31, 2024 6:07 pm

Knightro wrote:Here's another one for you...

Franz Wagner is the only player in the history of NBA basketball to shoot 57% or better from 2PT, 85% or better from FT and sub 30% from 3PT (100 attempts minimum 3PT/FT).

The only one.

His three point struggles last year were literally unprecedented.

He will uptick this year. I'm supremely confident of that.


57% from 2PT and 85% from FT is a very rare accomplishment in and of itself.

The only two guys who did it last year on Franz's volume were Franz and SGA.

The only other guys to EVER do it - Embiid, Kyrie, Durant (4 times), Jokic, Towns and Chris Mullin.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#154 » by eyriq » Wed Jul 31, 2024 6:15 pm

Knightro wrote:Here's another one for you...

Franz Wagner is the only player in the history of NBA basketball to shoot 57% or better from 2PT, 85% or better from FT and sub 30% from 3PT (100 attempts minimum 3PT/FT).

The only one.

His three point struggles last year were literally unprecedented.

He will uptick this year. I'm supremely confident of that.
Beautiful.

Makes sense why Weltman locked him up with a max without a second thought.

The probability that Franz is actually a BAD shooter is negligible.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#155 » by MagicForLife » Wed Jul 31, 2024 6:35 pm

thelead wrote:
Knightro wrote:
thelead wrote:Franz getting a max was an absolute overpay but the FO is obviously banking on his development. It’s all on Franz now.


This feels an bit extreme.

Franz is a damn good basketball player and has been wildly impactful to winning games over the last two years.

Of course we all want him to make more threes, and I believe that he will, but a lot of people act like he had a bad season last year and he just didn’t.

Literally everything got better in year three from year two except for one thing. Now admittedly the one thing that didn’t get better is a massively important thing, but he showed very real growth in other areas.

We both know that he’s not currently worth $45 mil per. I get that it’s the way NBA contracts are given out to promising young players but it doesn’t change the fact that he isn’t worth that amount of money today. That’s all-star money, at minimum, and he isn’t there yet. We all hope, and believe, that he’ll get there one day but he’s not there yet.


You are correct. Franz is not currently worth $45 mil per year. That is why the Orlando Magic is not going to pay him $45 mil in 2024-25 season. He's going to be paid $7 mil and I think that's a good bargain for his current production.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#156 » by RookieStar » Wed Jul 31, 2024 8:07 pm

Guys.. whether Franz improves his 3pt shooting or not, 30 of the 30 NBA teams in the league would have given him that MAX contract.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#157 » by RichCollab » Wed Jul 31, 2024 8:28 pm

Audi wrote:I remember when Paolo shot 3% from 3 for an entire month and then went on to shoot 40% from 3 in the playoffs when it mattered most.

I'm not worried about Franz.


Paolo was dealing with a nerve issue in his shoulder during that month.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#158 » by GelbeWand09 » Thu Aug 1, 2024 6:01 am

thelead wrote:
Knightro wrote:
thelead wrote:Franz getting a max was an absolute overpay but the FO is obviously banking on his development. It’s all on Franz now.


This feels an bit extreme.

Franz is a damn good basketball player and has been wildly impactful to winning games over the last two years.

Of course we all want him to make more threes, and I believe that he will, but a lot of people act like he had a bad season last year and he just didn’t.

Literally everything got better in year three from year two except for one thing. Now admittedly the one thing that didn’t get better is a massively important thing, but he showed very real growth in other areas.

We both know that he’s not currently worth $45 mil per. I get that it’s the way NBA contracts are given out to promising young players but it doesn’t change the fact that he isn’t worth that amount of money today. That’s all-star money, at minimum, and he isn’t there yet. We all hope, and believe, that he’ll get there one day but he’s not there yet.


On the other side he was by far the most impactful (Isaac doesn't play enough) player and the only real 2way player on a 47win team at 22.
We definitely know Franz gonna be a high impact & winning player over that contract. You can't say that about a lot of the other players who sign those contracts.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#159 » by pepe1991 » Thu Aug 1, 2024 8:42 am

Knightro wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
Knightro wrote:
The list of guys who are mid 80s from the free-throw line and have shown incredible touch around the basket, but can’t shoot from 3PT range is so small that I just don’t think that’s going to be what it is for Franz moving forward.

It would be really unprecedented for a guy to be that good from the line, that good at the rim, that good from floater range and just lousy from 23 feet. It just isn’t likely to me.


There are more players than you think who are +80% for FT for career and just average to below average outside shooters for career, among most noticable names you have Butler, Jaren Jackson, Davis, Ja Morant, Derozan, Jaren Jackson, hell our buddy Jeff Green is career 80% FT & 33% 3 point shooter.

Also Franz isn't only Wagner who can't shoot 3s but hits FT%. Mortiz is now career 82% Ft, 32% three point shooter.

Westbrook, for 8 years was both, very good FT shooter and dreadful 3 point shooter. Than he forgot how to shoot FTs as well.

Also what's good nba outside shooter changed. In past 34% for 3 was okey, now it's below league's average.


There's a big difference between 80% and 85% from the FT line though. 85% is elite. 80% is not.

Franz shot 85% from the FT line last year. He was the only player in the league who shot 85% from the 3PT and under 30% from 3PT. Literally the only one.

There have only been 16 players in the history of the NBA who have been 85% from the FT line and sub 30% from the 3PT line (minimum 100 attempts of both)

Franz Wagner 23-24
Jimmy Butler 20-21 and 21-22
Mario Chalmers 17-18
Jeff Green 16-17
Jeremy Lamb 16-17
Jarrett Jack 14-15
Sam Cassell 04-05
Austin Croshere 04-05
Richard Hamilton 00-01
Jerry Stackhouse 98-99 and 05-06
Spud Webb 92-93
Micheal Williams 92-93
Eddie Johnson 91-92
Ricky Pierce 91-92
Reggie Theus 89-90
Chris Mullin 88-89

If you set the criteria to the last decade when the three point shot really took off and every single position in the league basically began practicing them and attempting them, you're talking six players total.


I agree what are you trying to say, but some of data doesn't really hold ( 100+100 at least attemps)
For example: Joran Clarkson (55 games played) 2023-24 - 88% FT, 29% for 3. So Franz wasn't only one.

Tre Jones 2022-23 (68 games played) -86% FT, 28% for 3
Dwayne Bacon 2021-22 (72 games)
Isaiah Thomas 2017-18
Andrea Bargnani 2011-12
Aaron Brooks 2010-11

I didn't bother to check further in past but people you mentioned weren't only ones ( i assume you had some games played limitation tuned in ).

It's rare, sure.

Again, i'm not too worried about Franz's shot, but it's strange for sure. I tried to rewatch some of new shots and to me it feels like he he gets ball in spot ups and drags feet and makes adjustments after he recived the ball, where in first 1-2 years it looked more fluid.

That's very noticable in Olympic games.
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Re: Olympics - OQT 

Post#160 » by Knightro » Thu Aug 1, 2024 11:54 am

pepe1991 wrote:
Knightro wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
There are more players than you think who are +80% for FT for career and just average to below average outside shooters for career, among most noticable names you have Butler, Jaren Jackson, Davis, Ja Morant, Derozan, Jaren Jackson, hell our buddy Jeff Green is career 80% FT & 33% 3 point shooter.

Also Franz isn't only Wagner who can't shoot 3s but hits FT%. Mortiz is now career 82% Ft, 32% three point shooter.

Westbrook, for 8 years was both, very good FT shooter and dreadful 3 point shooter. Than he forgot how to shoot FTs as well.

Also what's good nba outside shooter changed. In past 34% for 3 was okey, now it's below league's average.


There's a big difference between 80% and 85% from the FT line though. 85% is elite. 80% is not.

Franz shot 85% from the FT line last year. He was the only player in the league who shot 85% from the 3PT and under 30% from 3PT. Literally the only one.

There have only been 16 players in the history of the NBA who have been 85% from the FT line and sub 30% from the 3PT line (minimum 100 attempts of both)

Franz Wagner 23-24
Jimmy Butler 20-21 and 21-22
Mario Chalmers 17-18
Jeff Green 16-17
Jeremy Lamb 16-17
Jarrett Jack 14-15
Sam Cassell 04-05
Austin Croshere 04-05
Richard Hamilton 00-01
Jerry Stackhouse 98-99 and 05-06
Spud Webb 92-93
Micheal Williams 92-93
Eddie Johnson 91-92
Ricky Pierce 91-92
Reggie Theus 89-90
Chris Mullin 88-89

If you set the criteria to the last decade when the three point shot really took off and every single position in the league basically began practicing them and attempting them, you're talking six players total.


I agree what are you trying to say, but some of data doesn't really hold ( 100+100 at least attemps)
For example: Joran Clarkson (55 games played) 2023-24 - 88% FT, 29% for 3. So Franz wasn't only one.

Tre Jones 2022-23 (68 games played) -86% FT, 28% for 3
Dwayne Bacon 2021-22 (72 games)
Isaiah Thomas 2017-18
Andrea Bargnani 2011-12
Aaron Brooks 2010-11

I didn't bother to check further in past but people you mentioned weren't only ones ( i assume you had some games played limitation tuned in ).

It's rare, sure.

Again, i'm not too worried about Franz's shot, but it's strange for sure. I tried to rewatch some of new shots and to me it feels like he he gets ball in spot ups and drags feet and makes adjustments after he recived the ball, where in first 1-2 years it looked more fluid.

That's very noticable in Olympic games.


I do admit that I am not sure if Basketball Reference has some sort of minimum games played or minutes threshold automatically when you use their season finder tool, and if they do I don’t know what it is.

I didn’t manually set one though.

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