cgf wrote:Tim Lehrbach wrote:FWIW, I do think if you subtract Randle from the Knicks without bringing in another versatile frontcourt piece, you probably do lose offensive dynamism to the detriment of the team's ceiling. I love the Bridges/OG wing combo but am a little bit skeptical of their top-end offense for a contender. They should be third and fourth options... and with Randle around, they are. Şengün may be Randle's equal and almost certainly would be more coveted by other teams, but it's an open question whether he actually improves the Knicks' offense. The Knicks' time is now, and they need to prioritize complementing their other top talent. Randle is a fit.
It's quite an intriguing mix in New York. Can't wait to see them battle with other top teams.
(Also, yes, I'm embarrassed I tried to swap Ayton for Randle. Let's just pretend that one didn't happen, yeah?)
That's the big thing for me. After Randle went down Brunson's minutes & usage shot up, and his efficiency fell notably. The difference was even more pronounced in the previous year's postseason, when Jalen's w/ & w/o #s with Randle were just shocking. So whether other fanbases want Randle or not, we need him.
He's our only non-Brunson creator, the two of them have good on court chemistry, and they have a great synergy...with Randle being a hotstarter, who cools off as teams adjust to him, whereas Brunson typically needs to feel his way into a game before taking off once he's got his rhythm. So first quarter Randle being an MVP level player works perfectly with Brunson who generally doesn't start exploding until the 2nd quarter/half.
That shows the impact on Brunson's individual offensive efficiency if you dumped Randle for nothing but it still doesn't explain why you wouldn't trade a soon to be 30 year old Randle for a player that is 7.5 years younger that essentially gives you much of what Randle does already. Randle is likely to decline over the length of his next contract while Sengun could easily improve.
Yes, Brunson's efficiency declined without Randle this year but the Knicks were dealing with a ton of issues at the same time in the second half of the season. OG went down at the same time as Randle and Mitch was already out due to injury. Brunson and Randle may be the better and more exciting offensive players but OG easily had the biggest overall impact on the team after the trade.
Post trade Brunson/Randle/OG without* Mitch/RJ/IQ out were +26.1 while only allowing 104.7 points per 100 possessions.
Brunson/Randle without OG and Mitch/RJ/IQ were -0.2 allowing 127 points per 100 possessions.
Brunson/OG without Randle and Mitch/RJ/IQ were +28.2 while only allowing 96.3 points per 100 possessions.
The loss of Randle hurt the ceiling of the offense but it also helped the defense while the loss of OG's defense was huge and it also took away some the ability to turn defense into easier looks on offense. At the same time this is occurring with Mitch out Thibs overextended iHart's minutes who had been playing on a soar achilles all year so he was forced into a minutes restriction.
Precious did an admirable job eating up minutes but he wasn't a great fit on the roster especially when forced into the starting lineup. The Hart/Precious/iHart pairing provided no spacing or shooting with limited ballhandling and made Brunson's life incredibly difficult in February. The team and Brunson didn't function better until Thibs was forced to go small and give McBride the starting spot over Precious and a bigger role with OG still out.
Add to that Grimes was underperforming most of the year and was eventually traded for Bogey and Burks, a decision many applauded but they were absolutely terrible for the Knicks on both ends of the court. The Knicks were hammered by injuries including Brunson and many guys were forced into bigger roles and insane minutes at times but somehow they found a way to win. So much was happening at the time that it is hard to even know how much of an impact overall Randle's absence was.
As far as the 2023 playoffs Brunson was more efficient offensively with Randle on the court. He can help to carry some of the offensive load and occupy a tougher defender like Butler and there are other benefits but the team as a whole performed better on both ends of the court with Brunson on and Randle off.
Brunson/Randle was +3.6 115.0 off/ 111.4 def
Brunson without Randle was +10.1 117.4 off/ 107.3 def while being 10 percentage points better on the offensive glass and their opponent being 2% points worse.
It's a small sample size and Randle was banged up so I wouldn't give too much weight to those numbers but they don't show that pairing Randle with Brunson benefited the team. I don't think Randle is a negative player or he should be traded for anything and I too am annoyed by the response he gets from some members of opposing fanbases but I am confused to why it seems some Knicks' fans are so resistant to trading him at all. At this point I wonder which players some fans would trade Randle for straight up.