Post#1472 » by j4remi » Thu Aug 15, 2024 10:22 pm
Welp...we got a couple of strong cards recently, so UFC 305 is kinda meh. It's being carried by a grudge match main event between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. The rest of the card is decent, but some potential mismatches. So what's worth checking for?
DDP defense the MW belt against Izzy:
This feels like more is on the line than usual. Dricus Du Plessis called himself the first African UFC champion (ignoring the birthplaces of Ngannou, Usman, and Adesanya) which put a target in his back. Izzy fired back in one of the awkwardest faceoffs ever, then proceeded to get smoked by Sean Strickland shortly after. That was his second loss in three fights, and he hasn't fought since...so his grip as one of the P4P top dogs is slipping.
On paper, Du Plessis hits harder but punches sloppier. Izzy tends to pick strikers like that apart, but he'll have to be extremely cautious because DDP has MUCH better grappling and a very good chin. Izzy's in more danger of losing by submission or boring decision than in any prior fight.
That said, prognosticators are leaning toward Adesanya, and I get it. He was a very active champion and seemed worn down physically and mentally. I don't think Sean Strickland is a better fighter than Izzy by any stretch, and prime Izzy would smoke Sean AND DDP in my book. But Adesanya's 35, and the slowdown might not just be fatigue...
Kai Kara-France vs Steve Erceg:
Kai Kara-France is coming off a close loss to Amir Albazi and a body-kick TKO (a really nice KO) to Brandon Moreno. Those aren't bad losses but they put him a tier below the contenders. Steve Erceg got rushed into a title shot, then proceeded just barely lose to Alexandre Pantoja in a fight that most fans think he won.
Kai's striking is very good, with timing that surprises a lot of opponents. Erceg is technically sharper everywhere, and I think he could mimic a lot of Moreno's success. So, I give this one to Erceg, but it's worth remembering that Steve's relatively green in the UFC. Kai's team is great at scouting and would be more familiar with Erceg than most. So a surprise isn't out of the question.
Mateusz Gamrot vs Dan Hooker:
Gamrot gives Islam a run for his money as best wrestler in the division. Hooker hasn't looked great for a while and doesn't have great wrestling defense. The one thing Hooker has going for him is some skill at timing knees and elbows. Gamrot sometimes shoots double legs without feinting to set them up, which is a habit that's seen him eat knees in multiple fights. But Gamrot SHOULD win this.
Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik:
Listed because this is a likely first-round KO. Jairzinho has fought tougher opponents, while Tuivasa is just a MUCH bigger guy. It's brute force vs some technique and both guys' chins have some wear and tear.
Carlos Prates vs Li Jingliang:
Prates is a Tuesday Contenders Series darling who has looked very impressive so far. Jingliang has been really good but not active. His only bad loss is a close decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez, but they were in two different weight-classes (on the infamous Khamzat vs Kevin Holland card). I mention all this because I feel like Jingliang is being slept on a bit. DWTCS fighters have had a habit of looking like world-beaters until they meet ranked UFC talent, and Jingliang was around that level last time we saw him.
Stylewise it's Jingliang's power vs Prates' athleticism and gas tank.
The Prelims don't have much to tune in for but...
Junior Tafa vs Valter Walker:
This isn't a great fight, but it's good on spectacle. Tafa is a fairly undersized modern HW with crazy power. Walker is a gigantic modern HW, but couldn't bully an even smaller HW last fight.
Joshua Culibao vs Ricardo Ramos:
If there's a banger on the prelims, my money's on this one. Two mid-level guys but they're both scrappy and fairly evenly matched.
Luana Santos vs Casey O'Neill:
Casey O'Neill has a surprising number of entertaining fights because she scraps her way past technical deficiencies. Luana Santos is new, and has a flashy style with some judo throws. It's hard to picture O'Neill getting tapped out by Ariana Lipski and staying on her feet against Santos...but Casey's surprised me before.
C- Turner | Wiseman
PF- Hunter |Clowney | Fleming
SF- Strus | George
SG- Bridges | Dick | Bogdanovic
PG- Haliburton | Sasser