Redraft '24

[Dat2U]

Doing redrafts, pulling receipts and saying how right you were when none of these guys have played a minute of NBA ball is a bit much if not going completely overboard.

It's a broken record every stinking year to say this but yall are reading way too much into summer league play. Only thing I pull from summer league is you can tell when someone is overwhelmed by the rise in level of competition & athleticism ... see Johnny Davis or first year Otto Porter.

Its a very short sample size and players treat the summer league very differently. Some look to make statement, others simply are working on parts of their game. Some guys get hot but its unsustainable, others don't shoot well at all in Vegas but find their stroke later. Some motors naturally run hot, but others rookies are still trying to get adjusted and comfortable. Most of the summer league stats DO NOT translate except volume of attempts lol. The summer league is not a good measurement of future performance. Every year, players that do well in summer league are never to heard from again ... until the next summer league.

[Dat2U]

I'm not nearly as down on Sarr as some are. I take solace in the fact he performed well over 24 games in the NBL. Averaged 20, 9, 2 & nearly 3 blocks per 36 while shooting over 50% and having a significantly positive BPM in a tough, physical league where many NBA prospects have struggled significantly.

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2 - Shephard- this was actually close for me between him and Sarr- I really liked Shephard- I was discouraged by his tournament showing (I had Kentucky winning the entire tournament) but remembered what smarter people have said which is not to make much of the tournament/small sample size. I liked what Ryen Russillo said about Reed and just though that Shephard's 3 point shooting would at least give him a high floor. Fellow posters like Nate and Nat were high on him as well along with stat guys like Pelton/Kevin Broom. IIRC, Doc also ranted against Sarr and his poor rebounding numbers.

14- Carrington - I would have considered trading up for Topic. But had no problem with the pick given that he was young and had upside. I guess I heard the Wizards were linked to this pick beforehand.

24- Pacôme Dadiet - heard some people talking him up before the draft beforehand

51- Bronny James- Wizards ultimate revenge against LeBron.

Well... if you draft at 24, you don't get 51 -- but drafting Bronny would have been kinda humorous for sure!

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Doing redrafts, pulling receipts and saying how right you were when none of these guys have played a minute of NBA ball is a bit much if not going completely overboard. ....

Agreed -- & that's on me for choosing a stupid title for this thread.

What I hoped to record here was precisely whom everyone would have picked on the evening of June 26th (& the next evening if you still had #51 in your pocket). The data is no doubt in the long draft thread, but I was hoping for a clean & compact record here.

Thus, in my case, I would have drafted Sarr & Bub (assuming, as I do for the purposes of this thread, that we've traded Deni).

But, I would not have traded 51 to move up from 26 to 24.

At 26 (assuming that George & Dadiet would be gone -- just as they were), I might have taken Mogbo or Dillon Jones or KJ Simpson or even Djurisic -- but the truth is I can't be sure.

At 51, given who was there, it would have been either Chomche or Cam Spencer.

If I'm being honest, that's as close as I can come to self-certainty.

[J-Ves]

On the day of the draft I would have done Sarr(2), Collier(26), and Flowers(51) and wouldn’t have traded Deni

If I do consider the 14th pick I think I would have went with McCain.

[doclinkin]

Thus, in my case, I would have drafted Sarr & Bub

Really? I recall Zards making a case for Bub, but nobody else had strong convictions on him as the guy. I'd found him a couple times (doing a sort for production by birthdates, then for rebounding by position) but both times was chased away by his shooting -- or at least, given that I was all in on Castle who had similar flaws, figured I'd stand heavy on the bigger and better rebounding PG prospect. Especially since scouts suggested Bub's defense was indifferent. Of course I like him better now, but really I think it was Zards all alone on Bub island.

This is the closest I'd gotten to picking him:

Still, given that I can make an argument for any of my top 5 guys, I don't mind this year slipping back a few notches to collect future picks. While still picking up capital in this draft.

This is a solid year for PG talent. Castle is my guy if we can train him up for a few years at the point. Sheppard may be the hero his numbers suggest. Rob Dills is dynamic and crafty, fun to watch. I like Jared McCain more than some of the guys rated ahead of him, smooth pretty shot from anywhere. Tall PG Bub Carrington shot well in drills at the combine, which was a knock against him in season. Devin Carter showed out in athletic testing. KJ Simpson was a one man band all year. All the way down to Mark Sears who may be an undrafted mighty mouse.

Even given that Castle, Sheppard, Dillingham, an Devin Carter were all picked before 14 I still had McCain before Bub.

I guess my point is to reinforce the idea that Dawkins and crew did a pretty good job. Today Bub looks like a smart solid pick out of left field. Same way trading up to take Bilal was an un-telegraphed surprise.

Usually folks on this board seem to do a better job of picking winners than whomever have have in the front office. To me the trade for Deni came out of nowhere, especially if it was for the chance of picking up Bub. Or at least that they had him as the BPA at that selection in a range of other guys they liked who might have been there at 14. He was on my radar, but still, even on a redraft, being honest, I would have gone Big. Ware or Holmes.

[DCZards]

Really? I recall Zards making a case for Bub, but nobody else had strong convictions on him as the guy. I'd found him a couple times (doing a sort for production by birthdates, then for rebounding by position) but both times was chased away by his shooting -- or at least, given that I was all in on Castle who had similar flaws, figured I'd stand heavy on the bigger and better rebounding PG prospect. Especially since scouts suggested Bub's defense was indifferent. Of course I like him better now, but really I think it was Zards all alone on Bub island

Yeah…Bub was my guy. Liked his overall game, including his smarts, as soon as I started checking out some of his film. I’m betting that he’ll end up being close to 6’6 and a problem to defend at the PG position. And his length will be a real asset on defense.

While I have much love for Deni, I’m fine with the trade that landed us Bub, especially since we also got Brogdon, another FRP, and two SRPs.

I had Sarr as my #2 pick and I’m sticking with that. Sheppard’s offensive skillset looks real good (as most of us thought it would) but I still like Sarr’s potential impact as an elite defender.

At 26, I most likely would have drafted Collier or Shannon. Both look like they could be explosive bench scorers. I knew little or nothing about George other than he was a projected FRP. But I do like what I’ve seen thus far from Kyshawn. At a minimum, I think he’s going to be a very good 3pt shooter.

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Thus, in my case, I would have drafted Sarr & Bub

Really? I recall Zards making a case for Bub, but nobody else had strong convictions on him as the guy. I'd found him a couple times (doing a sort for production by birthdates, then for rebounding by position) but both times was chased away by his shooting -- or at least, given that I was all in on Castle who had similar flaws, figured I'd stand heavy on the bigger and better rebounding PG prospect. Especially since scouts suggested Bub's defense was indifferent. Of course I like him better now, but really I think it was Zards all alone on Bub island....

You make a really good point, doc. & this is something for me (& others) to keep in mind: it's extremely difficult to recall exact preferences.

This is especially true given that we didn't spend much time in the draft thread looking at guys who might go from mid-lottery to @#20, because we didn't have (or expect to have) a pick in that part of the draft. The Deni trade took us all by surprise.

OTOH, the real question was about what anyone would have done at the exact moment when we made that #14 pick. Obviously, we are all reacting rather than structuring the situation with a strategy in mind. But, given that the trade had actuallly happened, that we were sitting there w/ the #14 pick in hand as the moment approached, what would we have done? In my case, by that point, for better or worse, I'd have taken Bub.

Had I identified early on? No.
Would I, therefore, have gone through the complicated set of choices & actions that gave me the pick I'd have used on him? No.

&, in that sense above all, you are right to point to Zards as the guy carrying the banner for Bub.

I guess my point is to reinforce the idea that Dawkins and crew did a pretty good job. Today Bub looks like a smart solid pick out of left field. Same way trading up to take Bilal was an un-telegraphed surprise....

Another excellent point.

...To me the trade of Deni came out of nowhere, especially if it was for the chance of picking up Bub. Or at least that they had him as the BPA at that selection in a range of other guys they liked who might have been there at 14. He was on my radar, but still, even on a redraft, being honest, I would have gone Big. Ware or Holmes.

& that would have made good sense. Tho we'd already nabbed Sarr at 2.

Here's another interesting point implied by what you write: having traded Deni, we would be almost certain to get one of Ware or Holmes at 14. Should that have induced us to pass on Sarr & take Sheppard.

In which case, rather than Sarr & Carrington, we'd have Sheppard & Ware.

Now there's something to follow! Overall, how do Sheppard/Ware do in the league vs. Sarr/Carrington?

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Come to think of it, let's add another similar question:

Suppose we hadn't given 51 to move from 26 to 24. Instead we'd taken Dillon Jones (who went at that spot) & then Cam Spencer at 51?

So, now it's a REALLY different draft! But not make-believe: all those guys were there at the spots in question.

So there's something to follow up on:

Sheppard, Ware, Jones & Spencer
vs.
Sarr, Carrington & George.

Which group turns out to be better?

[AFM]

The only thing I said to that effect going into the draft was that Sheppard looked like the best player in the draft to me, but was being held back by goofy white boy stereotype syndrome

dude looks like the guy who shot trump

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...51 - don’t know and don’t really care.

This is consistent with your view over time, nate. &, obviously, it's pretty rare for a #51 pick to give us reason to think that it's likely we whiffed on value!

Of course, there are high-value exceptions; Kenyon Martin Jr., Paul Reed, Sam Merrill, Charles Bassey, Aaron Wiggins, Jericho Sims, JD Davison, Gui Santos, Jabari Walker, Trayce Jackson-Davis were all taken in the 50s over the last few years & have developed into solid NBA players (some of them quite good indeed!).

The only reason I bring it up is that I have something of a hunch about Cam Spencer, who went at 53 -- I think he has a chance to be a good NBA player (maybe a few others as well -- e.g. Freeman, McCullar Jr. & Chomche -- but... Spencer above all. Just a hunch to be sure, but...).

Just sayin'....

[DCZards]

I like McCullar…a lot. Since the player I really wanted with the 51st pick (Harrison Ingram) went 48, I probably would have taken McCullar at 51.

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It'll be interesting to watch the way some of these guys taken in the 40s & 50s do in the league. As I've already written, despite being thin at the top this draft looked really deep to me.

[closg00]

No 2024 rookie thread so I’ll park this here, great discussion. Zach Edey with the greatest odds to win ROY.

Watch on YouTube

[Hibachi_0]

Ryan Dunn's jumpshot looks legit. His potential dramatically changes if he keeps shooting like this

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Watch on YouTube

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[closg00]

Ryan Dunn's jumpshot looks legit. His potential dramatically changes if he keeps shooting like this

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Watch on YouTube

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You beat me to it, Dunn’s shooting has been the biggest shock of preseason, what miracle and amazingly good luck for the Suns.

[J-Ves]

If Dunn’s long range stroke is real does that make him a top 5 pick in a redraft?

Likewise if Sarr’s 3pt shot is real (7/13, 54% over 3 games) does that keep him in the top 5 in a redraft since, like Dunn, he is a defense first prospect?

[Dat2U]

Ryan Dunn's shooting this preseason is absolutely stunning! Nothing short of remarkable. If it's real, then wow, he probably should have been a top 12 pick. He had so many bad misses & poor shooting stretches at UVA that transitioning to an NBA 3 and shooting with volume seemed improbable. I would love to know the story about how he even got to this point in such a short time.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Dillon Jones will end up being the steal of this draft.

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[Zonkerbl]

The only skill I can scout well myself is defense. I think Edey has the potential to play Duncan/Jokic style position defense. Just be in the right place and be big, don't foul. I think he was picked in about the right spot though. Have no idea about the rest of the draft.