2025: The return of a meaningful free agency?

[HadAnEffectHere]

It feels like all these guys are going to hit free agency without an extension or a new contract in place:

-Jimmy Butler
-Kyrie Irving (not extension eligible and a very concerning age for a long-term contract)
-Sengun
-Brandon Ingram
-James Harden
-Jalen Green
-Naz Reid
-Zubac
-Fred Van Vleet
-D'lo
-Brook Lopez

And Julius Randle, Myles Turner, and Aaron Gordon are up in the air as well.

Do we see teams clearing out cap space for 2025? One personal prediction is that I think the Pistons won't trade for Ingram, but I think they'll offer him a max next offseason.

[Godaddycurse]

One personal prediction is that I think the Pistons won't trade for Ingram, but I think they'll offer him a max next offseason.

Pistons dont have capspace next year

[HadAnEffectHere]

One personal prediction is that I think the Pistons won't trade for Ingram, but I think they'll offer him a max next offseason.

Pistons dont have capspace next year

I think they would be able to move off Tobias Harris and Beef Stew without a ton of issue.

[ChettheJet]

With the new rules it's just not as easy for teams to 'clear out cap space'. Lottery teams are less likely to want to take on a year or two of a high priced player if it pushes them closer to the next tax level because doing that could remove the chance they have to make a better move and get someone to make a real difference in their building efforts.

I think many teams are going to find themselves with their financial backs against the wall if they resigned a guy they thought 1, 2, 3 years ago was a key piece to their playoff run and now see him as a one dimensional player they'd rather do without but can't move his contract. Zach Lavine is a good example, Duncan Robinson, a whole bunch of Trailblazers, Ben Simmons, Kevin Huerter. The days of being able to find some team to dump a bad contract on for a future pick are fading fast.

[LarsV8]

Isn't Gobert a free agent as well.

[Colbinii]

Isn't Gobert a free agent as well.

Yes he has a player option.

[Colbinii]

It feels like all these guys are going to hit free agency without an extension or a new contract in place:

-Jimmy Butler
-Kyrie Irving (not extension eligible and a very concerning age for a long-term contract)
-Sengun
-Brandon Ingram
-James Harden
-Jalen Green
-Naz Reid
-Zubac
-Fred Van Vleet
-D'lo
-Brook Lopez

And Julius Randle, Myles Turner, and Aaron Gordon are up in the air as well.

Do we see teams clearing out cap space for 2025? One personal prediction is that I think the Pistons won't trade for Ingram, but I think they'll offer him a max next offseason.

Sengun is a RFA. I expect him to not actually hit the market. Same with Jalen Green.

Miami will do something with the Butler situation, though Apron penalties and rules make it more difficult than years past.

Brook Lopez will be super old.

D'lo would have gone this past year if there was any interest.

[BK_2020]

I see you snuck in D'Lo thinking we wouldn't notice.

[brackdan70]

Seems pretty humdrum. Some has beens and mediocre guys and Ingram.

[jazzfan1971]

Ingram could get interesting. NO might trade him for pennies on the dollar to avoid getting nothing like the Clips got for Paul George.

Or they could just pony up and pay the man and try to trade him later.

Why can't Kyrie get an extension? I tried asking Google and couldn't find anything about it.

[Scoot McGroot]

Why can't Kyrie get an extension? I tried asking Google and couldn't find anything about it.

He signed a 3 year deal, so he can extend on the second anniversary of signing, which would be July 7, 2025. That’s technically after he would already become a free agent if he opts out. So, if he opts into his 3rd year, he could then extend on July 7, but they’d probably let him negotiate an extension early, like they did this year with anyone who could sign an extension as soon as the moratorium was over.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Ingram could get interesting. NO might trade him for pennies on the dollar to avoid getting nothing like the Clips got for Paul George.

Or they could just pony up and pay the man and try to trade him later.

Why can't Kyrie get an extension? I tried asking Google and couldn't find anything about it.

New Orleans can't pay Ingram without going deep into the tax and they refuse to pay the tax.

They would have to dump pretty much all of McCollum's salary.

[oldncreaky]

One personal prediction is that I think the Pistons won't trade for Ingram, but I think they'll offer him a max next offseason.

Pistons dont have capspace next year

I think they would be able to move off Tobias Harris and Beef Stew without a ton of issue.

Agree. Harris will be an expiring $26M, and Stewart 2 more years @ $15M; both should be movable. Also, Reed is effectively an unguaranteed $8M. Take all 3 off of Detroit's cap sheet, add in a hold for a FRP, and they'd have north of $50M is space again.

[Godaddycurse]

Pistons dont have capspace next year

I think they would be able to move off Tobias Harris and Beef Stew without a ton of issue.

Agree. Harris will be an expiring $26M, and Stewart 2 more years @ $15M; both should be movable. Also, Reed is effectively an unguaranteed $8M. Take all 3 off of Detroit's cap sheet, add in a hold for a FRP, and they'd have north of $50M is space again.

I feel like teams w/ capspace will either go for the better FA listed in OP or ask for assets to absorb detroit's contracts though

[HotelVitale]

With the new rules it's just not as easy for teams to 'clear out cap space'. Lottery teams are less likely to want to take on a year or two of a high priced player if it pushes them closer to the next tax level because doing that could remove the chance they have to make a better move and get someone to make a real difference in their building efforts.

I think many teams are going to find themselves with their financial backs against the wall if they resigned a guy they thought 1, 2, 3 years ago was a key piece to their playoff run and now see him as a one dimensional player they'd rather do without but can't move his contract. Zach Lavine is a good example, Duncan Robinson, a whole bunch of Trailblazers, Ben Simmons, Kevin Huerter. The days of being able to find some team to dump a bad contract on for a future pick are fading fast.

Might be making the new cba a boogeyman and giving it a lot more influence than it has. Bad teams are almost never over the tax, let alone anywhere close to the $18m over it that would put them in 2nd apron territory. It’s a high figure and the type of teams that would’ve been interested in receiving salary dumps for picks now and in the past tend to have lots of cap space and also aren’t planning to spend like crazy in the next year or two.

The main effect of the new CBA is making it harder for good expensive teams to keep their expensive secondary guys together. Really for teams who were already cool with paying a ton of money in lux tax. Might be some other effects on everyone else but they’re small and not what people seem to think they are.

[oldncreaky]

I think they would be able to move off Tobias Harris and Beef Stew without a ton of issue.

Agree. Harris will be an expiring $26M, and Stewart 2 more years @ $15M; both should be movable. Also, Reed is effectively an unguaranteed $8M. Take all 3 off of Detroit's cap sheet, add in a hold for a FRP, and they'd have north of $50M is space again.

I feel like teams w/ capspace will either go for the better FA listed in OP or ask for assets to absorb detroit's contracts though

True, but that's true for everyone.

According to spotrac, Detroit is currently 27th in salaries for the 2025-26 season; granted that includes a lot of cap holds, but just about every team will need to make moves to create a big exception and/or cap space to take on a big FA. Most of the competitive teams are so far over that SnT deals are the only realistic path to a high-salary FA

I think Detroit's path to creating space is easier than most

[pistons4ever]

One personal prediction is that I think the Pistons won't trade for Ingram, but I think they'll offer him a max next offseason.

Pistons dont have capspace next year

???
They have right now some cap space left.
THJ has a 14 Mio expiring.
M.beasley 6 Mio expiring
Team Option on Reed (7,5 mio)

Simone , Tobias will have only one more season, so tradeable contracts......so the pisto s will have Cape space

[Godaddycurse]

One personal prediction is that I think the Pistons won't trade for Ingram, but I think they'll offer him a max next offseason.

Pistons dont have capspace next year

???
They have right now some cap space left.
THJ has a 14 Mio expiring.
M.beasley 6 Mio expiring
Team Option on Reed (7,5 mio)

Simone , Tobias will have only one more season, so tradeable contracts......so the pisto s will have Cape space

you have 138M on the books for next year right now.

[R-DAWG]

With the new rules it's just not as easy for teams to 'clear out cap space'. Lottery teams are less likely to want to take on a year or two of a high priced player if it pushes them closer to the next tax level because doing that could remove the chance they have to make a better move and get someone to make a real difference in their building efforts.

I think many teams are going to find themselves with their financial backs against the wall if they resigned a guy they thought 1, 2, 3 years ago was a key piece to their playoff run and now see him as a one dimensional player they'd rather do without but can't move his contract. Zach Lavine is a good example, Duncan Robinson, a whole bunch of Trailblazers, Ben Simmons, Kevin Huerter. The days of being able to find some team to dump a bad contract on for a future pick are fading fast.

Might be making the new cba a boogeyman and giving it a lot more influence than it has. Bad teams are almost never over the tax, let alone anywhere close to the $18m over it that would put them in 2nd apron territory. It’s a high figure and the type of teams that would’ve been interested in receiving salary dumps for picks now and in the past tend to have lots of cap space and also aren’t planning to spend like crazy in the next year or two.

The main effect of the new CBA is making it harder for good expensive teams to keep their expensive secondary guys together. Really for teams who were already cool with paying a ton of money in lux tax. Might be some other effects on everyone else but they’re small and not what people seem to think they are.

I feel like the new CBA is going to change so much about how business is done in the league. The biggest thing being the amount of max contracts that are handed out. I believe that the days of giving Tobias Harris level players full max deals are over as it's just too hard to build a roster when your #3 player is maxed out - unless your #3 is a Chris Bosh/Klay Thompson level player in a true big 3 lineup.

I also think it will be more common for players like Jalen Brunson to take 10-15% below max in the name of team building. It's why we don't see any market for Brandon Ingram who expects a max deal (which also creates a small window for win now teams to come in and grab Ingram at a discount - ie if you the Lakers, if you can turn say Russell and Rui into Ingram would you do it?)

The 2nd apron is a very interesting thing in the sense that it works as a hard cap for team building but gives team the flexibility to keep their squad together if they choose. And the league is in a state of transition. Which is why as much as I hate that the Knicks went all in on Bridges (which also means going all-in on Randle), I understand why they decided to shoot their shot this summer.

[BK_2020]

I feel like the new CBA is going to change so much about how business is done in the league. The biggest thing being the amount of max contracts that are handed out. I believe that the days of giving Tobias Harris level players full max deals are over as it's just too hard to build a roster when your #3 player is maxed out - unless your #3 is a Chris Bosh/Klay Thompson level player in a true big 3 lineup.

I also think it will be more common for players like Jalen Brunson to take 10-15% below max in the name of team building. It's why we don't see any market for Brandon Ingram who expects a max deal (which also creates a small window for win now teams to come in and grab Ingram at a discount - ie if you the Lakers, if you can turn say Russell and Rui into Ingram would you do it?)

The 2nd apron is a very interesting thing in the sense that it works as a hard cap for team building but gives team the flexibility to keep their squad together if they choose. And the league is in a state of transition. Which is why as much as I hate that the Knicks went all in on Bridges (which also means going all-in on Randle), I understand why they decided to shoot their shot this summer.

People talking like Tobias Harris-level players got 30% max all the time in the old CBA when it was just Tobias Harris who did.