Monitoring the Trade: Rob Dillingham for Jakob Poeltl

[Scase]

+1. There may be a Poeltl trade out there for a 1st rounder, but its not gonna be a lotto pick. And even then, its hard to find the landing spot for him. He's an average starting C making 20mill/year. Not overpaid but also not a bargain and there really isnt a big market for C's.

Wouldn't this mean that Jak isn't even worth a lotto pick in a historically bad draft? The exact same pick that everyone and their mother kept saying he was worth more than?

Ya it was a bad deal. It was bad when it was completed and aged worse when it ended it becoming a lotto pick. It is what it is, time to move on.

I'm with you, it's just weird to still see people trying to defend it.

[ciueli]

The bigger issue for me is that Masai likely could have undone the deal by trading Jak to Memphis for the 9th pick in the draft (there were rumours about them shopping the pick for a big man).

If we really were rebuilding this is a move that would have made a lot of sense, maybe the asking price was too high, but I doubt it, I think Buzelis would have been a nice player to slot in at the SF position for the future, Jak has an opt out in 2 years and may wish to go elsewhere, he should have been traded.

So bad enough that the deal was done in the first place, but when you have the opportunity to undo the deal in a rebuilding situation and you don't, that's just doubling down on failure.

This doesn't seem to make sense.

Why would Memphis trade the 9 for Poeltl when they knew it was likely they could get a big prospect (Edey or Clingan) at the 9?

I like Poeltl. But 19.5 of Poeltl for 3 years or a rookie deal center. Feels like you're creating a situation that doesn't exist to just be outraged

Jak is a proven NBA calibre starting centre, a team looking to win now isn't going to want to gamble their next couple of seasons on a 22 year old rookie turning into a real NBA player when there's a good chance he's basically Boban Marjanović.

[DKB333]

Poeltl is an asset at 20m a year. This is not like the Young trade. That was a disaster.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Buzelis is pretty boring to me, I'm quite confident he's closer to Wiggins than Wagner if he pans out. Keeping in mind Wiggins has returned 2.8 VORP over his career. Buzelis isn't a guy I see returning lottery VORP in most classes, maybe he barely sneaks in in this one. Not sold on his shooting or his overall skill, considering various factors he'll likely be ok on defense and might get some big time opportunities to try to carry a depleted Bulls team until it's later realized he lacks efficiency needed to win as a top option.

If he starts adding footwork, tightens handle, establishes himself as secondary facilitator, tweaks mechanics and improves shot selection then he can prove me wrong but there's too much that needs to be done to be high on him. He does dunk the ball with authority though, I can see him vs. Ron in a dunk contest.

[mademan]

The bigger issue for me is that Masai likely could have undone the deal by trading Jak to Memphis for the 9th pick in the draft (there were rumours about them shopping the pick for a big man).

If we really were rebuilding this is a move that would have made a lot of sense, maybe the asking price was too high, but I doubt it, I think Buzelis would have been a nice player to slot in at the SF position for the future, Jak has an opt out in 2 years and may wish to go elsewhere, he should have been traded.

So bad enough that the deal was done in the first place, but when you have the opportunity to undo the deal in a rebuilding situation and you don't, that's just doubling down on failure.

This doesn't seem to make sense.

Why would Memphis trade the 9 for Poeltl when they knew it was likely they could get a big prospect (Edey or Clingan) at the 9?

I like Poeltl. But 19.5 of Poeltl for 3 years or a rookie deal center. Feels like you're creating a situation that doesn't exist to just be outraged

Jak is a proven NBA calibre starting centre, a team looking to win now isn't going to want to gamble their next couple of seasons on a 22 year old rookie turning into a real NBA player when there's a good chance he's basically Boban Marjanović.

How many teams need Jak tho? And are willing to give up assets for him. Dallas got a stop gap starting calibre C for a pick swap last year (WAS recieved a back end of the 1st round pick). You think Poeltl is worth more? Why? Gafford is better by most metrics and he's cheaper/younger.

C is just not a big market. No team (besides us, seemingly) would trade a top 10 pick for Poeltl.

[bobbyp3588]

Tough thing about the trade evaluation is figuring out what to measure it against.

Dillingham?
The later pick the Spurs got?
Someone drafted after that pick?

It becomes an impossible exercise as it's tainted by the motivations someone has to push the trade the way they want to see it.

I don’t think it’s impossible at all. Had we kept our pick, no doubt we’ve had picked Edey.

That’s that comp. If Edey dominates like I think and hope he will it’s gonna be a bad look for us.

Whatever though… we could have picked Suggs and everything would be different (and worse).

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Wouldn't this mean that Jak isn't even worth a lotto pick in a historically bad draft? The exact same pick that everyone and their mother kept saying he was worth more than?

Ya it was a bad deal. It was bad when it was completed and aged worse when it ended it becoming a lotto pick. It is what it is, time to move on.

I'm with you, it's just weird to still see people trying to defend it.

What is there to defend? Yak has been an absolute critical addition to this team. If all it took was a 6'1 player with probably the ceiling of Reggie Jackson (or another pick with similar value to get him, then it was a complete steal of a trade.

[IQInVINCEable]

I think you gotta factor in the cost (gain?) of time.
We got ~1.25 years of Poeltl before Dillingham has even played a game.

Obviously wasn't a good use of Poeltl as we just threw time and money at a lost cause, but only can be proven in hindsight.

Time is always paid at a premium, and people don't measure that in the trades.

Time is almost as invisible as the TPE from the Siakam trade that combined with McDaniels netted us two 2nd rounders + Mitchell. Time is what Sacramento gained by dumping Vazenkov + mitchell so that they can actually spend time wooing Derozan.

It's frustrating to me to have people analyze trades without the time component.

[mademan]

Ya it was a bad deal. It was bad when it was completed and aged worse when it ended it becoming a lotto pick. It is what it is, time to move on.

I'm with you, it's just weird to still see people trying to defend it.

What is there to defend? Yak has been an absolute critical addition to this team. If all it took was a 6'1 player with probably the ceiling of Reggie Jackson (or another pick with similar value to get him, then it was a complete steal of a trade.

I cant believe people are still justifying this trade. It was a bad deal, Masai is far from perfect, it set us back. Time to move on

[Nebuchadnezzar]

I'm with you, it's just weird to still see people trying to defend it.

What is there to defend? Yak has been an absolute critical addition to this team. If all it took was a 6'1 player with probably the ceiling of Reggie Jackson (or another pick with similar value to get him, then it was a complete steal of a trade.

I cant believe people are still justifying this trade. It was a bad deal, Masai is far from perfect, it set us back. Time to move on

There is no metric to say this was a bad deal. The pick was from the worst draft this century. The fact that you claim it's bad with no evidence is useless.

[mademan]

What is there to defend? Yak has been an absolute critical addition to this team. If all it took was a 6'1 player with probably the ceiling of Reggie Jackson (or another pick with similar value to get him, then it was a complete steal of a trade.

I cant believe people are still justifying this trade. It was a bad deal, Masai is far from perfect, it set us back. Time to move on

There is no metric to say this was a bad deal. The pick was from the worst draft this century. The fact that you claim it's bad with no evidence is useless.

We traded a lightly protected 1st rounder for a starting C in a year where we were slated to miss the playoffs and all our best players were FA's within 18 months. It was a dumb trade. The evidence it was a dumb trade is both seeing it end up a lotto pick and also seeing what similar level C's go for (like Gafford, going for a back end of the 1st round draft pick in "the worst draft this century").

We overpaid and had no reason to. Removed us from tanking for Wemby so that we could get embarrassed by Derozan's daughter in the play-in.

[Merit]

I’m not high on Dillingham. Didn’t like his disappearing act in the tournament at key moments. Wasn’t able to put enough pressure on the paint off the dribble when he faced NBA level athleticism. I see a backup PG…maybe a starter who is there to play some D and take open jumpers, set up plays, etc. Nothing dynamic.

Clingan would have been a nice fit for us.

I think Matas is a future all-star and probably ends up being better than the top two picks in this draft.

I think Chomche ends up being a top 10 player from this draft but it’ll take four years to get there.

Wow you’re really high on Matas and Chomche!

Somehow I am unsure about matas. He feels like a Giddey clone to me. Lots of room to grow though!

Yeah Matas has size, skill, feel, athleticism, and the attitude. I’m pretty high on him.

Chomche less so but I have faith. He’s a mature and smart kid who seems to really want it and he’s a tremendous athlete.

I’m hopeful on chomche if only because he put his name in the draft a year early. Actually it’s his work ethic that gets me. Moving from not being able to speak English at all to being semi fluent in such a short period of time is extremely impressive and bodes well for his ability to learn and grow.

Thanks for your opinion. It’s super challenging to predict how a person may develop. I remember being super high on Ricky Rubio but then he plateaued really soon. Regardless, I wish Matas all the best!

[Merit]

Check my sig.

I remember your logical arguments from earlier in the 2000’s and the unnecessary heat you got for them. Kudos for sticking around.

[Merit]

The only 2 ppl I really like from 9-19 where I'm like, we missed out on em are Matas & Ware, and I was back n forth on him all the way to like a couple days pre draft.
I think the value is perfectly fine considering the weak draft. Glad it was this year & I changed my viewpoint on that too

What I really like about you is that you’re willing to change your opinion. It’s a mark of intellect and integrity.

[Merit]

I keep hearing Purtle is a top 10 center, is he really? I don’t see it.

He was surpassed by two rookies already (Chet and Wemby) and will probably be surpassed by Edey too.

But is he paid like one?

[Merit]

I don't get the point of beating a dead horse.

The point of this thread is to put emphasis on the fact that it was a bad and shortsighted trade which most of us already agree on.

Digging deeper it has more to do with being unsatisfied with Masai but it makes the situation more depressing than anything else as it's been talked about already, there is a general consensus on it, and there is a point where talking about it doesn't bring anything new to the discussion. It's like running out of things to talk about as to why Masai sucks as an executive by extending the lineage of a mistake into hypothetical situations.

What if''s are the worse things to talk about in sports as it doesn't represent reality.

What if Cleveland had drafted Michael Jordan?
What if there were no draft restrictions on expansion teams?
What if Charlotte had kept their Kobe pick?

For all we know the Raptors FO might have drafted another Bruno with their pick had they not made the trade.

It's just so pointless...

I don't understand a post whose point is to attack another poster saying what he wants to discuss is pointless. If you don't care for this topic, then just ignore the thread.

And it's not a "dead horse" like in your MJ/Kobe examples, since the trade was for a draft pick in a draft that just happened about 4 weeks ago, a pick that just a few months ago we tanked hard to try to keep. Also the OP who started this thread is not known to be a FO hater, so it's not likely he did this to "put emphasis" on a bad trade.

On topic, I'd like to believe that Masai, had we kept the pick, would have Zack Edey. He's got potential, a Canadian who fills a need on this team.

It’s literally a hypothetical scenario. We never know what could’ve happened, we only know what did.

We can explain why we think it happened, but even that’s a hypothetical. We can only live with the results. We have spoken about Poeltl (and Fred) so many times and the answers are always the same. Just leave it be.

I’m content to talk about hypotheticals - it’s part of a message board. The issue is bringing the same topics up over and over again.

[deeps6x]

I disagree with the whole premise of the thread. So much changed from when the trade was originally made. It’s like pretending you knew the future would happen when the trade was made. It’s very difficult for anyone to claim it would’ve played out the way it did with absolute certainty. Every trade is a risk. Heck in an alternate timeline maybe the raps keep their pick!

That applies equally to the OG and Pascal trades too. NYK was willing to take the risk that RJ and IQ would become amazing because OG on their team was worth it to them. Similarly, Masai got salary flexibility instead of youth from Indiana. Was that the right call? We shall see.

Similarly, Masai got salary flexibility instead of youth from Indiana. Was that the right call? We shall see.
NO! I expected at least Mathurin in the deal.

[deeps6x]

I keep hearing Purtle is a top 10 center, is he really? I don’t see it.

He was surpassed by two rookies already (Chet and Wemby) and will probably be surpassed by Edey too.

But is he paid like one?

He is a top 15-16 center in the league. And yeah, he's paid like it.

But he wasn't the right fit for the team - as soon as we traded Siakam and OG. He should have been moved at the draft. Edey should be on the team (plus salary parts we could be trading now).

[HiJiNX]

Wow you’re really high on Matas and Chomche!

Somehow I am unsure about matas. He feels like a Giddey clone to me. Lots of room to grow though!

Yeah Matas has size, skill, feel, athleticism, and the attitude. I’m pretty high on him.

Chomche less so but I have faith. He’s a mature and smart kid who seems to really want it and he’s a tremendous athlete.

I’m hopeful on chomche if only because he put his name in the draft a year early. Actually it’s his work ethic that gets me. Moving from not being able to speak English at all to being semi fluent in such a short period of time is extremely impressive and bodes well for his ability to learn and grow.

Thanks for your opinion. It’s super challenging to predict how a person may develop. I remember being super high on Ricky Rubio but then he plateaued really soon. Regardless, I wish Matas all the best!

Thanks for the convo my guy.

Funny you bring up Rubio—I never saw it with him. I saw a kid that could dribble and pass but couldn’t get in the lane easily unless he was in transition and was a horrible leaper off one or two feet and lacked strength. He also couldn’t shoot. So I was like, how is he gonna score at the NBA level if he can’t get to the rim or shoot or absorb contact? Passing skills are negated if you can’t score. He eventually developed a decent jumper but he still couldn’t overcome his physical limitations. Got a lot of steals too and became a good defender which I didn’t really see coming giving his lack of foot speed.

I dunno man, I’m pretty good at player prognostications. Obviously I’m wrong a lot, but I would also wager that I’m right more than a lot of people, even some of the folks who do this professionally. Eventually I’m gonna create a platform to look at guys who were just drafted and try to project who they’ll be in their primes. It’ll be fun to see what I get right and what I get wrong (like Perry Jones III who I thought was gonna be awesome and…he flamed out super fast haha).

While I’m here, my sleeper in this draft is Kel’el Ware. Crazy he fell so far in the draft. He’s gonna be a stretch big who also rebounds and blocks shots, while being able to switch out to the perimeter on D, and also providing a vertical threat on O. Imagine if Tyson Chandler could shoot and dribble a little bit. That’s close to what I think Kel’el Ware will be.

[agkagk]

Just because MIN picked Dilly at 8 doesn't mean TOR would have.

Yep

One of the most annoying things in sports

Vucevic trade is a great example; its a mathematical/statistical coincidence how well orlando did with those pics.

Nobody brings up the dozens of similar trades where the picks were total busts.