2025: The return of a meaningful free agency?

[TheBrooklynKidd]

There are also a lot of interesting RFAs from the 2021 draft whose teams might be afraid of the CBA repercussions of matching a big deal.

Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs
Josh Giddey
Jonathan Kuminga
Trey Murphy
Jalen Johnson
Santi Aldama
Alperen Sengun

[OutsidetheNBA]

There are also a lot of interesting RFAs from the 2021 draft whose teams might be afraid of the CBA repercussions of matching a big deal.

Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs
Josh Giddey
Jonathan Kuminga
Trey Murphy
Jalen Johnson
Santi Aldama
Alperen Sengun

What are examples of players who (1) got to RFA, (2) got an offer from another team of 10%+ of the salary cap, and (3) his own team did not match? Basically, when has a goodish young player not gotten matched in RFA?

There must be examples, but I can't think of any.

[Colbinii]

There are also a lot of interesting RFAs from the 2021 draft whose teams might be afraid of the CBA repercussions of matching a big deal.

Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs
Josh Giddey
Jonathan Kuminga
Trey Murphy
Jalen Johnson
Santi Aldama
Alperen Sengun

What are examples of players who (1) got to RFA, (2) got an offer from another team of 10%+ of the salary cap, and (3) his own team did not match? Basically, when has a goodish young player not gotten matched in RFA?

There must be examples, but I can't think of any.

Well on one side of coin, and what BrooklynKidd is referring to, is the new CBA is as close to a hardcap as we have had in a long time in the NBA. Using recent examples isn't exactly apples to apples.

[gswhoops]

There are also a lot of interesting RFAs from the 2021 draft whose teams might be afraid of the CBA repercussions of matching a big deal.

Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs
Josh Giddey
Jonathan Kuminga
Trey Murphy
Jalen Johnson
Santi Aldama
Alperen Sengun

What are examples of players who (1) got to RFA, (2) got an offer from another team of 10%+ of the salary cap, and (3) his own team did not match? Basically, when has a goodish young player not gotten matched in RFA?

There must be examples, but I can't think of any.

Well on one side of coin, and what BrooklynKidd is referring to, is the new CBA is as close to a hardcap as we have had in a long time in the NBA. Using recent examples isn't exactly apples to apples.

True, but I do agree that when push comes to shove I think teams are more likely to swallow a slight (to moderate) overpay than to let a good young player walk and get nothing in return.

[Colbinii]

What are examples of players who (1) got to RFA, (2) got an offer from another team of 10%+ of the salary cap, and (3) his own team did not match? Basically, when has a goodish young player not gotten matched in RFA?

There must be examples, but I can't think of any.

Well on one side of coin, and what BrooklynKidd is referring to, is the new CBA is as close to a hardcap as we have had in a long time in the NBA. Using recent examples isn't exactly apples to apples.

True, but I do agree that when push comes to shove I think teams are more likely to swallow a slight (to moderate) overpay than to let a good young player walk and get nothing in return.

Oh 100%, and I don't necessarily agree with BrooklynKidd either. I just think that's one way to view things.

[TheBrooklynKidd]

What are examples of players who (1) got to RFA, (2) got an offer from another team of 10%+ of the salary cap, and (3) his own team did not match? Basically, when has a goodish young player not gotten matched in RFA?

There must be examples, but I can't think of any.

Well on one side of coin, and what BrooklynKidd is referring to, is the new CBA is as close to a hardcap as we have had in a long time in the NBA. Using recent examples isn't exactly apples to apples.

True, but I do agree that when push comes to shove I think teams are more likely to swallow a slight (to moderate) overpay than to let a good young player walk and get nothing in return.

I’m not saying it’s guaranteed, but the 2nd apron & repeater tax will be a factor in many of these extensions.

If New Orleans chooses to re-sign Ingram are they willing to go into the 2nd apron to keep Murphy?

Are the Warriors willing to be a repeater tax team if Kuminga gets a big deal?

Are the Grizzlies going to pay the tax to keep Santi Aldama?

And although it’s not tax related, are the Rockets willing to give both Green and Sengun big contracts in the same off season?

[OutsidetheNBA]

Well on one side of coin, and what BrooklynKidd is referring to, is the new CBA is as close to a hardcap as we have had in a long time in the NBA. Using recent examples isn't exactly apples to apples.

True, but I do agree that when push comes to shove I think teams are more likely to swallow a slight (to moderate) overpay than to let a good young player walk and get nothing in return.

I’m not saying it’s guaranteed, but the 2nd apron & repeater tax will be a factor in many of these extensions.

If New Orleans chooses to re-sign Ingram are they willing to go into the 2nd apron to keep Murphy?

Are the Warriors willing to be a repeater tax team if Kuminga gets a big deal?

Are the Grizzlies going to pay the tax to keep Santi Aldama?

And although it’s not tax related, are the Rockets willing to give both Green and Sengun big contracts in the same off season?

On the one hand, I agree that the repeater and 2nd apron could make a difference.

On the other hand, I think it would take a very bad organization to refuse to extend a goodish young player, then keep him past the trade deadline, then lose him for nothing. I mean, I could see the Bulls doing something like that. Maybe the Pistons. Maybe the Pels because they're cheap. But probably not the Warriors, Grizz, or Rockets.

I think any decent org would match and then look to trade out of the contract for at least some value. The Suns managed to do it with Ayton, for example.

[TheBrooklynKidd]

True, but I do agree that when push comes to shove I think teams are more likely to swallow a slight (to moderate) overpay than to let a good young player walk and get nothing in return.

I’m not saying it’s guaranteed, but the 2nd apron & repeater tax will be a factor in many of these extensions.

If New Orleans chooses to re-sign Ingram are they willing to go into the 2nd apron to keep Murphy?

Are the Warriors willing to be a repeater tax team if Kuminga gets a big deal?

Are the Grizzlies going to pay the tax to keep Santi Aldama?

And although it’s not tax related, are the Rockets willing to give both Green and Sengun big contracts in the same off season?

On the one hand, I agree that the repeater and 2nd apron could make a difference.

On the other hand, I think it would take a very bad organization to refuse to extend a goodish young player, then keep him past the trade deadline, then lose him for nothing. I mean, I could see the Bulls doing something like that. Maybe the Pistons. Maybe the Pels because they're cheap. But probably not the Warriors, Grizz, or Rockets.

I think any decent org would match and then look to trade out of the contract for at least some value. The Suns managed to do it with Ayton, for example.

I don’t know if it’s the sign of a very bad organization because a lot of things can change between the deadline and free agency.

In just one summer the CBA has already forced objectively well-run teams to make roster decisions that are far from ideal.

The CBA also makes it more difficult to get out of contracts mid-season because of new salary floor rules that limit salary dumps.

[BK_2020]

12 out of 30 teams are above the 1st apron and half of them are in the 2nd apron. That's more teams in the restrictive aprons than were in the tax most of the 2010s. It's only in your headcanon that NBA teams are cutting salary all over the place to stay below the 2nd or the 1st apron.

[BigJimFinn]

True, but I do agree that when push comes to shove I think teams are more likely to swallow a slight (to moderate) overpay than to let a good young player walk and get nothing in return.

I’m not saying it’s guaranteed, but the 2nd apron & repeater tax will be a factor in many of these extensions.

If New Orleans chooses to re-sign Ingram are they willing to go into the 2nd apron to keep Murphy?

Are the Warriors willing to be a repeater tax team if Kuminga gets a big deal?

Are the Grizzlies going to pay the tax to keep Santi Aldama?

And although it’s not tax related, are the Rockets willing to give both Green and Sengun big contracts in the same off season?

On the one hand, I agree that the repeater and 2nd apron could make a difference.

On the other hand, I think it would take a very bad organization to refuse to extend a goodish young player, then keep him past the trade deadline, then lose him for nothing. I mean, I could see the Bulls doing something like that. Maybe the Pistons. Maybe the Pels because they're cheap. But probably not the Warriors, Grizz, or Rockets.

I think any decent org would match and then look to trade out of the contract for at least some value. The Suns managed to do it with Ayton, for example.

The Bulls did just that with Lauri, although it became a S&T to Cleveland, got only a 2nd and a first that never conveyed, and not even for a big offer (about 14% of cap). In most cases a credible offer threat is enough to convert a free agent signing into S&T, so meaningful free agency just depends on meaningful cap space, and the end result is almost the same. Matching leads to a one year NTC, so that isn't attractive if the team really doesn't want to keep the player.

Yet I would bet on no more than 1 of the guys on the BrooklynKidd's RFA list moving next summer. Most teams are not the Bulls.