NOP-UTA Trade

[YayBasketball]

I think we have already seen him as a reclamation project and it hasn't gone well. Just looking at their raw stats and BPM, Ayton and Collins are really similar for their careers:

Collins 16p 8r 1a 1b +0.8BPM, 8.3 career VORP (7 years)
Ayton 17p 10r 2a 1b +1.0BPM, 8.3 career VORP (6 years)

Both have declined since moving from the teams they started with and Ayton's BPM, etc. look a bit better right now, but a lot of that is from playing center all year where +/- stats tend to be pretty favorable to guys because of their importance to the defense. Relative to other centers it is pretty bad. Collins +/- stats looked a lot better once shifted to center, so I don't think there is a meaningful difference in impact between the two, nor has there really been for their careers. I imagine a lot of other catch all stats tell pretty similar stories.

So, lets say Ayton is a bit better (probably true) but not significantly so (say, the difference between the 23rd best center in the league and ... the 26th best center) ... is that worth $8 million per year more? Then add that for a team that would like a guy who can play stretch 5 next to a power forward that doesn't space well, or would like a rim-runner to play next to an existing stretch center ... and I think Collins, flawed as he is, might have a larger market.

Also reiterating: I want neither on my team. Both would probably be good contributors on an MLE somewhere (or just above), but making 26 million and 34 million, respectively, is just horrible value.

You make some good points. Okay, you swayed me. My view was clouded by the "1st overall pick potential" and "true-Center" size with Ayton. But yea, especially personality/hierarchy wise, Collins fits so much better as a high-energy hustle guy willing to do the winning things and not demand a major offense role. His willingness and ability to shoot 3's are also a big plus over Ayton.

Do you see Ainge really giving up Kessler in a potential Ingram deal? That part doesn't add up for me, since they would have Eubanks/Filipowski as their Centers. I guess that could be a stealth tank move.

And if Ainge holds Kessler out of the deal, what do you think is the reasonable picks attached for Collins / Ingram swap? 2 protected 1sts? That would have Pels about 9 mil. under the luxury tax (11 if they add a min. salary like JRE), so I wonder if they would need another player from 3rd team for added value, or just take the TPE for later use and savings now.

[babyjax13]

I think we have already seen him as a reclamation project and it hasn't gone well. Just looking at their raw stats and BPM, Ayton and Collins are really similar for their careers:

Collins 16p 8r 1a 1b +0.8BPM, 8.3 career VORP (7 years)
Ayton 17p 10r 2a 1b +1.0BPM, 8.3 career VORP (6 years)

Both have declined since moving from the teams they started with and Ayton's BPM, etc. look a bit better right now, but a lot of that is from playing center all year where +/- stats tend to be pretty favorable to guys because of their importance to the defense. Relative to other centers it is pretty bad. Collins +/- stats looked a lot better once shifted to center, so I don't think there is a meaningful difference in impact between the two, nor has there really been for their careers. I imagine a lot of other catch all stats tell pretty similar stories.

So, lets say Ayton is a bit better (probably true) but not significantly so (say, the difference between the 23rd best center in the league and ... the 26th best center) ... is that worth $8 million per year more? Then add that for a team that would like a guy who can play stretch 5 next to a power forward that doesn't space well, or would like a rim-runner to play next to an existing stretch center ... and I think Collins, flawed as he is, might have a larger market.

Also reiterating: I want neither on my team. Both would probably be good contributors on an MLE somewhere (or just above), but making 26 million and 34 million, respectively, is just horrible value.

You make some good points. Okay, you swayed me. My view was clouded by the "1st overall pick potential" and "true-Center" size with Ayton. But yea, especially personality/hierarchy wise, Collins fits so much better as a high-energy hustle guy willing to do the winning things and not demand a major offense role. His willingness and ability to shoot 3's are also a big plus over Ayton.

Do you see Ainge really giving up Kessler in a potential Ingram deal? That part doesn't add up for me, since they would have Eubanks/Filipowski as their Centers. I guess that could be a stealth tank move.

And if Ainge holds Kessler out of the deal, what do you think is the reasonable picks attached for Collins / Ingram swap? 2 protected 1sts? That would have Pels about 9 mil. under the luxury tax (11 if they add a min. salary like JRE), so I wonder if they would need another player from 3rd team for added value, or just take the TPE for later use and savings now.

Predicting what Ainge does still is beyond me. I had a good feel for Lindsey, but Ainge will seemingly trade anyone at any time if the price is right, so you have to know his price. I think he would trade Kessler in an Ingram deal if we are interested in Ingram, and I think it is a plus of the deal is a lateral one for a season. But...idk, worst of 2025 MIN/CLE/UTA 1sts + worst of 2027 UTA/LAL/MIN/CLE 1sts to swap Collins for Ingram if the reporting of us maintaining 10 million in cap space after the extension is true? Or sub Kessler for a pick?

[R-DAWG]

The biggest challenge with a package like this is, if your trading for Brandon Ingram you are trying to accomplish two things:
1) Make a run for the play-in
2) Build up Ingram's value to re-trade him next summer

To accomplish the first goal, you want Kessler and Sexton on your roster.

I could see a more attractive trade being the following:
Middle pick of UTA-CLE-MIN in 2025
Lowest two picks of UTA-CLE-LAL-MIN 2027
Collins or Clarkson
One additional rookie scale player

[YayBasketball]

The biggest challenge with a package like this is, if you're trading for Brandon Ingram you are trying to accomplish two things:
1) Make a run for the play-in
2) Build up Ingram's value to re-trade him next summer

To accomplish the first goal, you want Kessler and Sexton on your roster.

I could see a more attractive trade being the following:
Middle pick of UTA-CLE-MIN in 2025
Lowest two picks of UTA-CLE-LAL-MIN 2027
Collins or Clarkson
One additional rookie scale player

That seems somewhat fair, and maybe even just one of the 2027 picks.

Collins does make sense for Pels, but I'm interested in Cam Johnson (and Kessler or Sharpe) to the Pels for Collins and one or two of those 1sts. A bit redundant with Murphy, but big, high-level 3 pt. shooters is exactly the skillset you double down on around Zion/Murray. A closing lineup of Murray/Murphy/Herb/CamJ/Zion is spaced and paced.

[Mrakar]

Pelicans Get:
John Collins
Walker Kessler
Collin Sexton

Their roster becomes more well rounded after this trade. A lot of toughness, athleticism and defense.

Murray/CJ/Zion/Collins/Kessler
Alvarado/Sexton/Jones/Murphy/Theis

Jazz Get:
Brandon Ingram
Jordan Hawkins

They get another young All Star to pair with Lauri

George/Clarkson/BI/Lauri/Hendricks

Trade aside, that lineup doesnt make any senss. Collins would have to be on the bench, i would argue CJ also but that makes Sexton expendable.
Pelicans need Herb and Murphy out there. Thats is whole point of trading Ingram.

As far as the value goes, Pels would have at least to keep Hawkins in that scenario.

[R-DAWG]

The biggest challenge with a package like this is, if you're trading for Brandon Ingram you are trying to accomplish two things:
1) Make a run for the play-in
2) Build up Ingram's value to re-trade him next summer

To accomplish the first goal, you want Kessler and Sexton on your roster.

I could see a more attractive trade being the following:
Middle pick of UTA-CLE-MIN in 2025
Lowest two picks of UTA-CLE-LAL-MIN 2027
Collins or Clarkson
One additional rookie scale player

That seems somewhat fair, and maybe even just one of the 2027 picks.

Collins does make sense for Pels, but I'm interested in Cam Johnson (and Kessler or Sharpe) to the Pels for Collins and one or two of those 1sts. A bit redundant with Murphy, but big, high-level 3 pt. shooters is exactly the skillset you double down on around Zion/Murray. A closing lineup of Murray/Murphy/Herb/CamJ/Zion is spaced and paced.

I can see New Orleans using the picks that they acquire in an Ingram trade to improve the roster elsewhere and can see Cam Johnson for 1-2 picks working. Collins/Clarkson is just needed to make the cap math work.