tsherkin wrote:Penny was considerably better than Sprewell on offense. If we assume health, and of course that's a big if, then this is easily Penny.
Owly wrote:Granting Sprewell has better longevity and going mostly otoh, without systematic analysis
...
Penny. Penny peaks way higher ...
24.6 PER versus 19.7 (both are outliers)
.229 WS/48 versus .117 (.115 if you want to stick to one year for all stats)
7.2 BPM to 2.7.
Penny also has a big impact signal that year (1st in on-off at +17.1 - and fwiw in the faux RAPM from it ... fwiw Sprewell has good on-off [+10.7] in '97 on a very poor team ... AScreaming's '97 NPI RAPM put's him 90th of 438 players with 1.22)
Sprewell could play big minutes, which fooled some who look at per game totals, but barring '97 his composites never suggest he was significantly above average. Nor is there a big impact signal over his career.
Without specifics on the question I would trend towards career value though "todays game" might make me think more peak-y and also maybe locks in Penny's injuries less.
Regardless Sprewell doesn't get the boost others might because I think he wants paying like a star and choked out a coach which is bad from any number of dimensions (asset value to franchise; general intangibles, trust etc; ethical/moral) and broadly isn't a great intangibles guy. As such it's hard to say he accumulates value/"CORP" in the way a good 3rd or 4th best player on a good team might.
Few semantic quibbles aside, I agree.
Outside of [maybe as many as] three seasons, Sprewell's on-court production/efficiency/impact is never above that of a league-average player. The ONE benefit he provides a team in those years is that his motor enabled him to give you that "league-average" production and impact for 40-ish minutes per game (i.e. you didn't have to go to the bench [and what is likely a
below average player] often). But that's a slim bonus.
*Penny was pretty close to a
peak-Sprewell level player right off the bat in his rookie season.
*By his 2nd year he
clearly better than anything Sprewell ever was (with actually a decent amount of daylight between them).
*By his 3rd [peak] year, he was a SO MUCH better player than Sprewell ever achieved.........it would be like comparing peak Jordan to peak Mitch Richmond (or something like that). BIG big gap.
*His 4th season is a bit banged up [injury year], and his quality thus erodes somewhat. Still better than peak Sprewell in the 59 rs games he does play; and then actually kinda goes off in the 1st round [which they lost 2-3 to a contender level Heat team]: 31.0 ppg [+3.9% rTS] and 3.4 apg with just 1.8 topg against the best defense in the league (also 6.0 rpg).
*Misses most of his 5th year to further injury issues, and isn't the same player when he comes back.......
and yet he's
still pretty close to peak Sprewell level for that 6th and 7th season.
Then he suffers more injury woes and is barely even a league-average player ever again.
You both know that I'm about as "longevity-driven" in my criteria as anyone on this forum; but I'd take those first 7 seasons of Penny [injuries and all] over Sprewell's entire career. The value above replacement that he provides in that span exceeds the entire of Sprewell's career, imo, and perhaps fairly easily.
I'm almost wondering if even his first 4 years alone could match Sprewell's career from a CORP or other value above replacement principle (something similar to my criteria).
Perhaps not, but I'd bet it's close (fwiw, Sprewell's entire career is 56.3 WS and 21.0 VORP in the rs, and 4.1 WS and 2.3 VORP in the playoffs; '94-'97 Penny
alone is at 40.2 WS and 19.1 VORP in the rs, and 5.4 WS and 3.6 VORP in the playoffs).
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
- unless you guys want more haha.
It's actually quite perfect IMO for him.
