2024 Trade Rumors

[babyjax13]

Let's say the Jazz don't get a high level prospect in the 2025 draft and they get a prospect comparable to like Jalen Suggs.

What should they do afterwards.

Tank for 2026 then shift to using assets to bring in good veterans. Let's say in that scenario we push for the play-in in 2027 (Lauri is 29 by then), and push for a top-6 seed in 2028 (Lauri is 30). If that plan fails Lauri will be in his prime still and very valuable and you will have young players who are still young enough to be part of a rebuild. Trade Lauri, try to get a star. Lots of possible variables, but if we don't get a star in 2025 I imagine trying to get one in 2026 is the plan.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Let's say the Jazz don't get a high level prospect in the 2025 draft and they get a prospect comparable to like Jalen Suggs.

What should they do afterwards.

Tank for 2026 then shift to using assets to bring in good veterans. Let's say in that scenario we push for the play-in in 2027 (Lauri is 29 by then), and push for a top-6 seed in 2028 (Lauri is 30). If that plan fails Lauri will be in his prime still and very valuable and you will have young players who are still young enough to be part of a rebuild. Trade Lauri, try to get a star. Lots of possible variables, but if we don't get a star in 2025 I imagine trying to get one in 2026 is the plan.

While AJ and Boozer are really good and are really NBA ready relative to most prospects their age, anyone else is probably like 3-4 years away (because that's how long it takes in general) and by the time they're good, Markkanen will be 32 and probably on the border of being acceptable defensively and his contract will be over.

The sheer amount of time it takes to

1. Draft a star prospect
2. Have that star prospect hit
3. Have that star prospect actually develop into a star player

Is just pretty long and seems to not line up with Markkanen's likely aging curve at all.

This just feels a lot like the final Lillard-Blazer years where the Blazers kept assuring him that this would be the last tank and they would build a contender around him until it became clear it would never happen while he was still effective and he eventually demanded a trade.

[bkohler]

I still think it's a distinct possibility that Markkanen will be moved next year in the offseason. You could dangle him for another top 5 prospect next year or more 26' picks.

I think we're in for some lean years the next few years.

[babyjax13]

Let's say the Jazz don't get a high level prospect in the 2025 draft and they get a prospect comparable to like Jalen Suggs.

What should they do afterwards.

Tank for 2026 then shift to using assets to bring in good veterans. Let's say in that scenario we push for the play-in in 2027 (Lauri is 29 by then), and push for a top-6 seed in 2028 (Lauri is 30). If that plan fails Lauri will be in his prime still and very valuable and you will have young players who are still young enough to be part of a rebuild. Trade Lauri, try to get a star. Lots of possible variables, but if we don't get a star in 2025 I imagine trying to get one in 2026 is the plan.

While AJ and Boozer are really good and are really NBA ready relative to most prospects their age, anyone else is probably like 3-4 years away (because that's how long it takes in general) and by the time they're good, Markkanen will be 32 and probably on the border of being acceptable defensively and his contract will be over.

The sheer amount of time it takes to

1. Draft a star prospect
2. Have that star prospect hit
3. Have that star prospect actually develop into a star player

Is just pretty long and seems to not line up with Markkanen's likely aging curve at all.

This just feels a lot like the final Lillard-Blazer years where the Blazers kept assuring him that this would be the last tank and they would build a contender around him until it became clear it would never happen while he was still effective and he eventually demanded a trade.

If you have a true star when Lauri is 32, then I think you are just happy to have a veteran piece to compliment them and provide veteran leadership. But, if we look at true top-10 players, by year 3 they are usually at least top-30 guys. Let's just say we get Flagg and he's a Tatum level player (I don't see that, but for the sake of argument):

Year 1: no playoffs (Lauri is 28)
Year 2: push for play-in, maybe make it (Lauri is 29)
Year 3: push for top-6, definite play-in (Lauri is 30)
Year 4: Cooper is a top-15 player, we are a playoff team (Lauri is 31)

Or just delay that one year if it is a 26 prospect. These are two very, very deep drafts AT THE TOP of the draft, so I think both will produce multiple all-stars. I think this is a reasonable chance to assemble a very good team, and a contender if you luck into drafting a top-10 guy.

[SoCalJazzFan]

If the Jazz were to structure Markk's R&E such that they can give him the highest amount in 25/26 and descend from there, it could look something along the lines of:

2024/25- $38M ($18M + $20M "bonus")
25/26- $53M
26/27- $49M
27/28- $45M
28/29- $42M

This would give Markk essentially a new 4 yr $209M contract, which I believe is what he is more or less in line to receive if he gets a max contract.

(Edit: The Jazz pay Markk the most when they have a ton of rookie tier contracts and they can afford it).

The last couple of years of his contract, other All Star level players of his age range will be making about $20M more than he will be, making him a very desirable trade candidate. Alternatively, and probably more likely, it opens up cap space for the Jazz to be able to extend (or sign) a player or two to a max/near max contract without destroying their cap.

(Second Edit: If the cap goes up the maximum 10% year, by 28/29 it will be $206M. Markk's salary will be 20% of the cap that year under this scenario, with plenty of room to extend or sign players).

[dr0welf]

I'm tired of the tank already. Really don't enjoy watching the team the last few years. I'm ready to strengthen the team around our stars and build a contender. Tanking is overrated IMHO

[SoCalJazzFan]

The sheer amount of hype Ainge is leaking about the 2025 draft class to the media feels like desperation (which is again in this article). No one other than Edgecombe is nearly athletic enough to be a high level star. This draft is headed to 2021 Part 2, which was a very good class that produced zero players better than Lauri Markkanen. The best you can hope for is getting a Cade Cunningham or Scottie Barnes.

Why not Ant, Ja, LaMelo, Zion from the 2019 and 2020 classes, or even Donovan Mitchell or Paul George?

The top of this draft class looks to be more special and deep than an average draft, and certainly better than the 2021 draft. Maybe not a generational talent like Lebron or Wemby, but certainly a handful of potential franchise players, and I think there could be players in this draft on the level mentioned above. Those players were All Stars in their 2nd or 3rd season. Ainge isn't the only one hyping the 2025 draft class.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The sheer amount of hype Ainge is leaking about the 2025 draft class to the media feels like desperation (which is again in this article). No one other than Edgecombe is nearly athletic enough to be a high level star. This draft is headed to 2021 Part 2, which was a very good class that produced zero players better than Lauri Markkanen. The best you can hope for is getting a Cade Cunningham or Scottie Barnes.

Why not Ant, Ja, LaMelo, Zion from the 2019 and 2020 classes, or even Donovan Mitchell or Paul George?

The top of this draft class looks to be more special and deep than an average draft, and certainly better than the 2021 draft. Maybe not a generational talent like Lebron or Wemby, but certainly a handful of potential franchise players, and I think there could be players in this draft on the level mentioned above. Those players were All Stars in their 2nd or 3rd season. Ainge isn't the only one hyping the 2025 draft class.

The top of this draft is just not very athletic other than Edgecombe (who is absurdly raw). Flagg does not move fluidly and Harper has no explosion. Ja, Ant, and Zion have superhero athleticism.

It's very hard to project any of these guys as super high tier stars with only one of them having elite athleticism.

[bkohler]

I'm tired of the tank already. Really don't enjoy watching the team the last few years. I'm ready to strengthen the team around our stars and build a contender. Tanking is overrated IMHO

We haven’t even begun to tank, imo. I think we’ve for 2-3 years of bottom 10 finishes coming up. Probably bottom 5 this year, bottom 5 in 26 and then 8-10 range in 27.

[Inigo Montoya]

I'm tired of the tank already. Really don't enjoy watching the team the last few years. I'm ready to strengthen the team around our stars and build a contender. Tanking is overrated IMHO

If the Jazz could build a contender without tanking then they would have done so. The problem is that the Jazz have no stars to build around, with Markkanen being the exception but also not a player who could be the best player on a contender. Tanking isn't overrated, just ask the Spurs. And the way it is looking, the Jazz won't be able to be a contender without tanking.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I'm tired of the tank already. Really don't enjoy watching the team the last few years. I'm ready to strengthen the team around our stars and build a contender. Tanking is overrated IMHO

If the Jazz could build a contender without tanking then they would have done so. The problem is that the Jazz have no stars to build around, with Markkanen being the exception but also not a player who could be the best player on a contender. Tanking isn't overrated, just ask the Spurs. And the way it is looking, the Jazz won't be able to be a contender without tanking.

Amount of guys better than Lauri Markkanen per draft class

2021: 0, maybe 1-2 in the future
2020: 2
2019: 2 (these are very hypothetical in Zion and Ja)
2018: 3-4 (depending on your Trae evaluation)
2017: 3-5
2016: 0 (unless you love Pascal Siakam or past Ben Simmons)
2015: 1
2014: 2
2013: 2
2012: 3-4 (depending on your Brad Beal evaluation)

There are almost no "build around" guys in any draft class if Lauri is not and finding one will probably take like 2-10 years of more tanking.

(there's also basically no one with "build around" upside in the upcoming draft class either)

You will eventually find a great player with enough tanking, but given how unlikely it is to get a great pick and how unlikely each prospect is to turn into a top 10 player, it will take years and years and years of tanking on average.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Markannen's value might actually go up once he re-signs and is locked in long-term rather than being an expiring contract, while also being on a declining deal.

Don't think Markkanen will take a declining deal after being aggressively lied to by Ainge for the last 12 months while Ainge has tried and failed to trade him for the last month!

Markkanen's value was at its peak deadline 2024 (when he had two years left on a ridiculous deal) and now will be badly diminished. He will have a bit more value than Pascal Siakam, but the general range of the Siakam return (two whatever picks and one worthless pick) should be viewed as a comparable baseline. Maybe the Jazz can get one good pick or three whatever picks for Markkanen in 2025.

Ainge just really completely **** this chasing the bizarre delusion that Paul George would sign here if they got Mikal Bridges (do George and Bridges even have any relationship?)

If I understand the situation correctly, if the Jazz use their cap space to give Markkanen $40M in this coming season then it means that the contract is declining since he's not going to average $40M per season.

As for Siakam, he was expiring so naturally his value wasn't at his highest (and he was also older). With Markkanen it's a different situation.

Lauri's contract in years 2-5 of this deal averages $49m with him getting 4 years, $196m instead of 4 years, $207m.

So the Jazz used $25m in cap space this year to save $11m in the next four years.

The $14m was the minimum they could offer before getting Lauri up to his max and the extra $11m was used to save $11m over the next four years.

So he did not average $40m per season, he is averaging massively more than that, as he was always going to.

[dr0welf]

I'm tired of the tank already. Really don't enjoy watching the team the last few years. I'm ready to strengthen the team around our stars and build a contender. Tanking is overrated IMHO

If the Jazz could build a contender without tanking then they would have done so. The problem is that the Jazz have no stars to build around, with Markkanen being the exception but also not a player who could be the best player on a contender. Tanking isn't overrated, just ask the Spurs. And the way it is looking, the Jazz won't be able to be a contender without tanking.

If Markkanen is someone who is not the best player on a contender, did the Jazz just screw up paying him big? I feel if we would have tanked properly for Wemby then maybe we wouldn't be having this conversation. I believe you need to build around Markkanen, and it might take 4 top tier players to make it work.

[Inigo Montoya]

I'm tired of the tank already. Really don't enjoy watching the team the last few years. I'm ready to strengthen the team around our stars and build a contender. Tanking is overrated IMHO

If the Jazz could build a contender without tanking then they would have done so. The problem is that the Jazz have no stars to build around, with Markkanen being the exception but also not a player who could be the best player on a contender. Tanking isn't overrated, just ask the Spurs. And the way it is looking, the Jazz won't be able to be a contender without tanking.

If Markkanen is someone who is not the best player on a contender, did the Jazz just screw up paying him big? I feel if we would have tanked properly for Wemby then maybe we wouldn't be having this conversation. I believe you need to build around Markkanen, and it might take 4 top tier players to make it work.

I agree they should have tanked for Wemby, said so at the time. But what's done is done and hopefully the Jazz learned they need to pick a direction and go all in. As for Markkanen, I don't think the Jazz screwed up by paying him. There is no contending team (I think) that doesn't have at least two players who make at least what he does. And if the Jazz didn't pay him they wouldn't even hit the salary floor. Better to pay him than be forced to spend the money on mediocre players who'll become overpaid and won't help the Jazz win. If Ainge managed to move Gobert for the return he got, I have no concerns about him being able to move Markkanen for good value if need be. And since now Markkanen got his money, he won't have to worry about being financially hurt by the Jazz sidelining him this season with phantom injuries.

[WinterSoldier]

I'm tired of the tank already. Really don't enjoy watching the team the last few years. I'm ready to strengthen the team around our stars and build a contender. Tanking is overrated IMHO

If the Jazz could build a contender without tanking then they would have done so. The problem is that the Jazz have no stars to build around, with Markkanen being the exception but also not a player who could be the best player on a contender. Tanking isn't overrated, just ask the Spurs. And the way it is looking, the Jazz won't be able to be a contender without tanking.

If Markkanen is someone who is not the best player on a contender, did the Jazz just screw up paying him big? I feel if we would have tanked properly for Wemby then maybe we wouldn't be having this conversation. I believe you need to build around Markkanen, and it might take 4 top tier players to make it work.

Give realistic trades or free agents that the Jazz could get that would make us a contender?

I don't see us being close and based on this summer no player even considered the Jazz as a team to go to.

[dr0welf]

Give realistic trades or free agents that the Jazz could get that would make us a contender?

I don't see us being close and based on this summer no player even considered the Jazz as a team to go to.

I don't know how many free agents we went after this offseason that turned us down. I know we tried to get Bridges, but that was the Nets decision and they got a haul of picks for him. Outside that I don't know of anyone we actually went after. (I don't think we went after PG without getting Bridges)

I also don't know if we get all the pieces this offseason, but with Sexton and Markkanen already under contracts we would need 2 more top 50 players to be in the conversation. Then you are just tinkering with the lineup to get the right combination.

I think Ingram could be had if we really wanted to get him and he is a good enough player and would match extremely well with Markkanen and Sexton. If one of our draft picks from last year or this year improve we would have a solid team IMHO and back in the tinkering with pieces and improving through practice and draft. I would rather be in that conversation then hoping to draft the next basketball GOAT and knowing 99.9% never actually pan out. Zion was a once in a lifetime draft pick, where is his title? This is a losing situation that very rarely works out.

[WinterSoldier]

Give realistic trades or free agents that the Jazz could get that would make us a contender?

I don't see us being close and based on this summer no player even considered the Jazz as a team to go to.

I don't know how many free agents we went after this offseason that turned us down. I know we tried to get Bridges, but that was the Nets decision and they got a haul of picks for him. Outside that I don't know of anyone we actually went after. (I don't think we went after PG without getting Bridges)

I also don't know if we get all the pieces this offseason, but with Sexton and Markkanen already under contracts we would need 2 more top 50 players to be in the conversation. Then you are just tinkering with the lineup to get the right combination.

I think Ingram could be had if we really wanted to get him and he is a good enough player and would match extremely well with Markkanen and Sexton. If one of our draft picks from last year or this year improve we would have a solid team IMHO and back in the tinkering with pieces and improving through practice and draft. I would rather be in that conversation then hoping to draft the next basketball GOAT and knowing 99.9% never actually pan out. Zion was a once in a lifetime draft pick, where is his title? This is a losing situation that very rarely works out.

I guess we see things different, I see 30 years of failure form the Jazz doing the strategy of picking up Sextons, Markkanen's, Boozers, Okur's, and other top 50ish players. Adding Ingram who the Pelicans can't give away doesn't add much hope for me that Jazz will be winning in a competitive western conference. You say that 99.9% chance of failure through the draft which the Celtics, Wolves, OKC and most of the better teams have drafted most of their core. I see 100% chance of failure compiling a rag tag band of mid level talents.

[dr0welf]

I guess we see things different, I see 30 years of failure form the Jazz doing the strategy of picking up Sextons, Markkanen's, Boozers, Okur's, and other top 50ish players. Adding Ingram who the Pelicans can't give away doesn't add much hope for me that Jazz will be winning in a competitive western conference. You say that 99.9% chance of failure through the draft which the Celtics, Wolves, OKC and most of the better teams have drafted most of their core. I see 100% chance of failure compiling a rag tag band of mid level talents.

I think both ways can work and both ways can succeed and have in the past. I think a mixture of the 2 is actually the best solution. We have the draft picks and financial flexibility and 6 young players.

[DanishLakerFan]

Laker fan here. I come in peace.

Cant figure out if Utah are trying to tank or not. What would it take to get guys like Kessler and/or Collin Sexton? And are they even on the market?

[HadAnEffectHere]

Laker fan here. I come in peace.

Cant figure out if Utah are trying to tank or not. What would it take to get guys like Kessler and/or Collin Sexton? And are they even on the market?

Both are on the market, but Ainge is unhappy with the offers for both and is hoping their trade value improves in season. I would guess the Jazz want the 2031 Suns first for Kessler and two firsts (or one really good first) for Sexton.