The trade market for pitchers

[Ex-hippie]

The first one is the Mariners not having enough quality prospects to make it work without Felix. Second, it

[Basketball Jesus]

You're arguing against yourself here. On the one hand you're saying that Santana is so good, the M's don't have enough assets to get it done. On the other hand, you're saying that he's not worth the huge price he's going to command. If teams are evaluating Santana as nothing more than a two-year rental, then none of them are going to offer the packages like Chamberlain/Cano, or Ellsbury/Buchholtz, or Loney/Kemp, that would price the M's out of the market. As I understand it, all teams would be looking at a 72-hour negotiating window to extend Santana for the "Zito plus" contract he'll eventually command. I would want the M's to do that. It's certainly in Minnesota's interest to do that, for the obvious reason that it maximizes Santana's trade value. You can't have it both ways: you can't say the market is sky-high and the prize is just a two-year asset.

I don

[Ex-hippie]

I don't know what else to tell you. Trading Felix for a two-year rental would be a terrible idea. But no one, no one, has suggested that Felix might be involved in this deal, and it won't be just a two-year rental.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

From ESPN.com:

We started hearing rumblings this week that there was a team in on Santana that no one has mentioned. Once we began asking around, officials from two clubs we surveyed nominated Seattle. But don't bet your Space Needle souvenir collection on it. The Twins would almost certainly start the conversation by asking for Adam Jones and Brandon Morrow. And there is practically no scenario under which Seattle could give up Jones, now that Jose Guillen is gone.

The Mariners also would have trouble coming up with a third and/or fourth piece, since their most high-profile prospect, catcher Jeff Clement, wouldn't fit Minnesota's needs. And one more thing: Seattle probably wouldn't be a place Santana would be anxious to waive his no-trade clause to go to, either. So never mind.

From this, it sounds like Brandon Morrow, Balentien, Truinfel and Robert Rohrbaugh may be a competitive deal. "Competitive" being the Mariners don't entirely sell off the farm while still having a realistic shot.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Jesus or hippie, what about Nolan Gallagher? He made low-A his bitch for about half the season, but I never saw his high-A numbers. I doubt his upside is very high but I don't know much about him.

[Ex-hippie]

I honestly don't know very much about Gallagher. I know that he sucked ass in his last year at Stanford, yet managed to get taken on the first day of the draft. Bavasi is the baseball version of Isiah Thomas: he's a lousy GM with an amazing knack for finding overpriced mediocrities, but he does draft pretty well. So I'm definitely willing to defer to the judgment of Bavasi and his scouts -- maybe Gallagher had a particular flaw that could be ironed out, or he just had a string of bad luck. So far, it's looking like a good pick.

[Basketball Jesus]

I

[Ex-hippie]

Fascinating paragraph in the San Jose Mercury News, if you scroll down:

The Seattle Mariners and Reds were known to be two teams in pursuit of Lincecum and able to offer a variety of young position players. The rough outline of a deal with Seattle would have reshaped both franchises, with the Mariners potentially shedding first baseman Richie Sexson and the Giants moving veteran infielder Ray Durham or Rich Aurilia.

Aurilia bombed in his earlier stint with the M's and I wouldn't expect him to be anything more than the new Willie Bloomquist. But if Lincecum is involved, I'm interested in hearing what this is about.

[TheUrbanZealot]

I

[Basketball Jesus]

I thought Sabean was on a youth-movement kick. What happened?

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Sabean is also on a cost-cutting kick, so his youth-movement kick may subside on occasion.

If we could get Tim Lincecum, I would be super-happy, but I'd prefer Johan for obvious reasons.

Stuff from the live blogging in Nashville:

-The Mariners are likely to be the winning bidder for Hiroki Kuroda. Your price: 4 years, $45 million. For that, he'd better be a damn good No. 3.
-San Francisco is flirting with the idea of Ben Broussard but nothing is set in stone.
-The Mariners are likely to lose out on Johan (F**K) to the Red Sox...Goddammit, Bavasi!
-We've reportedly offered Mark Loretta a 1-year, $2 million contract.

[TheUrbanZealot]

The Mariners have been notorious for gambling with either middle of the road w/ a year of fluke succsss (i.e. Weaver, Batista) and/or previous #1 prospect who were injured (i.e. Foppert/Ramirez). The Mariners never, EVER have brought in a #1 starter. The only 4 prominent #1 starters we've ever had have been Langston, Hanson, Johnson, and Hernandez, and all of them came in via draft/trade.

At some point, we have to start to play w the big boys and sacrifice some dough. I mean unless we are content w/ being just a dash above mediocre, there is no way we will compete w/ those other teams staffs. We need at least 2 shut down guys we can count on every 5 days.

With all of the above being said, I'd like us to go after a TRUE ace. The only pitchers I have any interest in are:

- Santana
- Peavy
- Bedard
- Kazmir

I don't want to go after anymore injury riddled pitchers w/ potential. I don't want us to go after anymore veterans that had 1 good year and that's it. I want either A) veterans that have hown a steady, continuous sign of ace-osity or B) young guys that have shown early, consistent signs of dominance. The above list, represents exactly that, there are simply no other pitchers out there that are worth the risk.

If we have to give up prospects, who cares? I like to use the Celtics as an example. At some point you have to make the decision if you want to be in perpetual mediocrity/rebuild mold, or if you want to make that leap into the elite class of teams. Sometimes you have to sacrifice your young talent to get to that elite level. Also keep in mind that we really want to take advantage of Ichiro's 200 hits a season for the next 5 yrs. We don't have time to be waiting 10 yrs for some Class A pitcher to be a dominant ACE.

I think Peavy and Bedard are the most realistic to be obtained and I don't care if we have to give up Adam J, Wlad B, or Carlos T. to do so.

DO IT BILL!

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Kinda OT, but Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis are headed to Detroit in exchange for--I can barely believe this--Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and 4 other prospects.

That's not filthy, that's nasty.

[b_roy7]

Kinda OT, but Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis are headed to Detroit in exchange for--I can barely believe this--Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and 4 other prospects.

That's not filthy, that's nasty.

That's a GREAT deal for the Tigers. Recently after getting Renteria.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

It's an even better deal for the Marlins.

[b_roy7]

I

[Basketball Jesus]

It's an even better deal for the Marlins.

No it's not. At all. The Marlins got effed harder than a chick in a Captain Stabbin video.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Not a Cameron Maybin fan, I see. And Andrew Miller probably doesn't tickle your fancies. Understandable.

Back on topic, it would appear that the Mariners will at least come out of these winter meetings with Kuroda, who I pray to God is a No. 3 starter.

[Basketball Jesus]

No, Maybin's the only player the Marlins received worth any value and his projection is nowhere near what Cabrera produced last year...at age 24.

[b_roy7]

Not a Cameron Maybin fan, I see. And Andrew Miller probably doesn't tickle your fancies. Understandable.

Back on topic, it would appear that the Mariners will at least come out of these winter meetings with Kuroda, who I pray to God is a No. 3 starter.

The kid has speed, but I don't see him and Miller coming out to equal Cabrera. Miller could be a top 3 pitcher when he's finally progress from what I heard and Willis won't be much of an impact pitching in the A.L. IMO.

Kuroda's gonna cost a lot.