LAC/UTA/DET: Collins to LAC & DET finally gets a first for a salary dump

[babyjax13]

This is me, trying to find as good of a solution as jayjaysee for Collins.

LAC trades: Norman Powell, PJ Tucker, Bones Hyland, Amir Coffey (out ~39 million)
in: John Collins, Tim Hardaway Jr. (in ~43 million)
The Clippers add a F/C who should be a nice fit with Harden because he's best when he isn't trying to create his own offense and just gets to live off of catch-and-shoot threes in conjunction with rim-running and lobs + an adequate replacement for Norman Powell in THJ. LAC might also need to send out Kobe Brown to make this work to sign two minimum guys to fill out the roster (I assume they'd just sign Jordan Miller to a regular minimum b/c he looks like an NBA player), and I'd be happy for Utah to send back a 2nd for him (if that is needed to make it work). They are ~4.9 million under the first apron.

Rotation:
Zubac/Collins/Bamba
Collins/Batum/DJJ
Kawhi/Mann/DJJ
DJJ/THJ/KPJ
Harden/Dunn/KPJ

UTA trades: John Collins, 2025 UTA/MIN/CLE 1st (lowest)
in: PJ Tucker, Bones Hyland, Amir Coffey
Utah moves Collins for expirings and cap space. They might keep and play Coffey, but I imagine there is a good chance all of these guys are gone the day after the trade.

DET trades: Tim Hardaway Jr.
in: Norman Powell, 2025 UTA/MIN/CLE 1st (lowest)
Detroit swaps Hardaway for a similar impact player with an extra year, but in return gets a first round pick.

[BK_2020]

The Clippers are pretty set at the forward spots with Kawhi, Mann, Batum, and DJJ. They don't have a reason to trade Norman Powell just to dump Tucker and get Collins.
THJ is not at all similar to Norman Powell. Norman Powell is a much better shooter from everywhere on the court and gets to the rim and the free throw line at a much higher rate. He's registered 60+ TS% last two seasons. THJ has been below league average.

[babyjax13]

The Clippers are pretty set at the forward spots with Kawhi, Mann, Batum, and DJJ. They don't have a reason to trade Norman Powell just to dump Tucker and get Collins.
THJ is not at all similar to Norman Powell. Norman Powell is a much better shooter from everywhere on the court and gets to the rim and the free throw line at a much higher rate. He's registered 60+ TS% last two seasons. THJ has been below league average.

Powell is def. the better player, but Hardaway's percentages have declined from his 58%TS years in Dallas partially b/c of where he scores from now. Kidd's system doesn't seem to play to his strengths nearly as much as Carlisle's, and I think that under Lue his efficiency would increase quite a bit. YMMV, but if you had to pick five guys who could be a poor man's Norman Powell on offense - THJ would probably be on that list.

RE: LAC's forward rotation, I don't think that is set. Batum is about to retire, they don't have any rebounding at the forward spot - especially when Kawhi misses games - and outside of Kawhi they don't have any scoring at those positions. BUT, Lue has gotten a lot out of spamming big wings who can handle the ball, and I could see him not really wanting Collins because ... that's not him.

[BK_2020]

The Clippers are pretty set at the forward spots with Kawhi, Mann, Batum, and DJJ. They don't have a reason to trade Norman Powell just to dump Tucker and get Collins.
THJ is not at all similar to Norman Powell. Norman Powell is a much better shooter from everywhere on the court and gets to the rim and the free throw line at a much higher rate. He's registered 60+ TS% last two seasons. THJ has been below league average.

Powell is def. the better player, but Hardaway's percentages have declined from his 58%TS years in Dallas partially b/c of where he scores from now. Kidd's system doesn't seem to play to his strengths nearly as much as Carlisle's, and I think that under Lue his efficiency would increase quite a bit. YMMV, but if you had to pick five guys who could be a poor man's Norman Powell on offense - THJ would probably be on that list.

RE: LAC's forward rotation, I don't think that is set. Batum is about to retire, they don't have any rebounding at the forward spot - especially when Kawhi misses games - and outside of Kawhi they don't have any scoring at those positions. BUT, Lue has gotten a lot out of spamming big wings who can handle the ball, and I could see him not really wanting Collins because ... that's not him.

Hardaway had .600+ 3PAr last two seasons and shot more corner threes than ever. His efficiency isn't dropping because of Kidd. He just plain sucks.

[BK_2020]

There is simply no way any team that's not selling capspace for picks will voluntarily take Tim Hardaway jr.

[babyjax13]

The Clippers are pretty set at the forward spots with Kawhi, Mann, Batum, and DJJ. They don't have a reason to trade Norman Powell just to dump Tucker and get Collins.
THJ is not at all similar to Norman Powell. Norman Powell is a much better shooter from everywhere on the court and gets to the rim and the free throw line at a much higher rate. He's registered 60+ TS% last two seasons. THJ has been below league average.

Powell is def. the better player, but Hardaway's percentages have declined from his 58%TS years in Dallas partially b/c of where he scores from now. Kidd's system doesn't seem to play to his strengths nearly as much as Carlisle's, and I think that under Lue his efficiency would increase quite a bit. YMMV, but if you had to pick five guys who could be a poor man's Norman Powell on offense - THJ would probably be on that list.

RE: LAC's forward rotation, I don't think that is set. Batum is about to retire, they don't have any rebounding at the forward spot - especially when Kawhi misses games - and outside of Kawhi they don't have any scoring at those positions. BUT, Lue has gotten a lot out of spamming big wings who can handle the ball, and I could see him not really wanting Collins because ... that's not him.

Hardaway had .600+ 3PAr last two seasons and shot more corner threes than ever. His efficiency isn't dropping because of Kidd. He just plain sucks.

Look from 0-3 feet, his % of attempts have declined dramatically (from 15.8% of his shots to 9.4% in one season and they have stayed at that level). He had one year where his FG% at the rim was poor in Dallas (22-23), but under Kidd it has largely been the same. TLDR, do all the math if his percentages remained the same this season but he had the shot diet he had in 20-21 he would score .60ppg and his TS would be close to league average for his position (explanation for Kidd's philosophy + math below).

Some of those shots have been replaced by shots from 16ft-3 while the rest have become 3PT shots (basically, from 9% of his shots being long twos to 11 percent, and 58 percent being 3s to 61 percent), because Kidd's philosophy is that in the playoffs you need to be able to hit midrange shots, so teams should play how they do in the playoffs all season. I'm not sure that is entirely wrong, and that would point to Norman being a better player in that environment, too (which I am not arguing). But if we redistribute his shots to be more similar to under Carlisle with this year's percentages:

0-3ft: (.158 x 12.4 x .7 x 2 = 2.74ppg vs .093 x 12.4 x .7 x 2 = 1.62ppg at the rim) = -1.02ppg
3-10ft: (.099 x 12.4 x .365 x 2 = .89ppg vs. .087 x 12.4 x .365 x 2 = .79ppg) = -.1ppg
10-16ft: (.075 x 12.4 x .450 x 2 = .84ppg vs. .102 x 12.4 x .450 x 2 = 1.14ppg) = +.3ppg
16-3: (.088 x 12.4 x .379 x 2 = .83ppg vs. .106 x 12.4 x .379 x 2 = .99 ppg) = +.16ppg
3: (.581 x 12.4 x .353 x 3 = 7.63ppg vs. .612 x 12.4 x .353 x 3 = 8.03ppg) = +.40ppg
Losing .26ppg

Then his FTr has declined 23% because he isn't getting as many shots at the rim (12.4 x .173 x .852 = 1.83ppg vs 12.4 x .206 x .852 = 2.17ppg) (decline of .34ppg)

The decline in rim attempts has essentially reduced his ppg by .60ppg (.34+.26).

Just the .26ppg is a TS% decline of 1%, and the .34ppg is a similar decline (that I'm not bothering to calculate).

[babyjax13]

There is simply no way any team that's not selling capspace for picks will voluntarily take Tim Hardaway jr.

Well, Powell is being replaced by Collins here, and THJ is replacing Bones + Coffey + Tucker. Or you could look at it as THJ's production 'replacing' Powell's and Collins' replacing Coffey + Tucker. I think the increase in productivity to Collins is a greater difference than the decrease from Powell to THJ, but YMMV.

[clippertown]

This trade increases the Clippers payroll and makes it very difficult to get under tax threshold and to avoid the repeater tax. Can't see it happening. The Clips may be willing to swap Collins for Mann + Bones + Tucker but that's as far as they go.

Clips need a real PF to help keep Kawhi at the SF position, which hopefully keeps him from additional wear and tear.

[oldncreaky]

For Detroit, yeah, I'd take it.

It's only a late first headed to Detroit, but IMO Norman Powell is much better than THJ, and I think Powell is a decent expiring contract next season @ $20.5M

[Mr Peanut]

Would definitely do it from Detroit's end. Powell is the far superior player, and even though it's likely a late first it is still solid draft capital. The extra year isn't a huge deal as we wouldn't have had significant cap space next off-season anyway with Cade's extension.

[jayjaysee]

I just see Utah/LAC agreeing to Powell/Tucker for Collins. No need for the rest IMO. I thought that deal would get done with the Dunn deal.

I agree THJ looked too broken to be relied upon honestly.. would look for a different third team if Ballmer wanted to replace some scoring..

Or maybe just work Clarkson/Collins for Powell/Tucker/Bones/etc.. maybe trade a late first for a second or something to get that done if needed?

[jazzfan1971]

Not paying to move Collins.

[Snakebites]

Deal. No take backs.

[babyjax13]

Not paying to move Collins.

Why? He is overpaid and blocks young players from getting minutes. It's not like the value we send can't be recouped.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Not paying to move Collins.

Why? He is overpaid and blocks young players from getting minutes. It's not like the value we send can't be recouped.

1. Ainge has shown no ability to use capspace whatsoever
2. John Collins is only going to block Kessler from minutes if Kessler is either terrible next year or if Hardy is literally incapable of coaching (and thus crumbles in fear at the idea of benching Collins because he makes money) or if Kessler is really good and the Jazz want to throw games intentionally. Collins plays 100% of his minutes at the 5 so the only other player he can block at this point is Filipowski.

[babyjax13]

Not paying to move Collins.

Why? He is overpaid and blocks young players from getting minutes. It's not like the value we send can't be recouped.

1. Ainge has shown no ability to use capspace whatsoever
2. John Collins is only going to block Kessler from minutes if Kessler is either terrible next year or if Hardy is literally incapable of coaching (and thus crumbles in fear at the idea of benching Collins because he makes money) or if Kessler is really good and the Jazz want to throw games intentionally. Collins plays 100% of his minutes at the 5 so the only other player he can block at this point is Filipowski.

Again I ask, why? Some team will want to drop salary and we will have capspace to absorb it for an asset. Ainge's issue has been saying stuff publicly to generate excitement while clearly having different priorities behind closed doors. "We will go big game hunting but if that doesn't work..." translates to "well, if Giannis suddenly wants to come here we will do it, but the most likely outcome is that we tank."

If we are going to have 26 million invested in a starting caliber player (if barely that) and just ... not play him, we are better off using one of our less valuable assets to move him to open up optionality and ensure that we are picking early lotto. (Imo) 48 minutes of Kessler/Collins is going to result in more wins than 48 minutes of Kessler/Filipowski/Eubanks. Collins will also get power forward minutes next to Filipowski, and maybe Eubanks, too, and will continue playing 25-30 minutes because there is time in the rotation for him, even if he doesnt start.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Why? He is overpaid and blocks young players from getting minutes. It's not like the value we send can't be recouped.

1. Ainge has shown no ability to use capspace whatsoever
2. John Collins is only going to block Kessler from minutes if Kessler is either terrible next year or if Hardy is literally incapable of coaching (and thus crumbles in fear at the idea of benching Collins because he makes money) or if Kessler is really good and the Jazz want to throw games intentionally. Collins plays 100% of his minutes at the 5 so the only other player he can block at this point is Filipowski.

Again I ask, why? Some team will want to drop salary and we will have capspace to absorb it for an asset. Ainge's issue has been saying stuff publicly to generate excitement while clearly having different priorities behind closed doors. "We will go big game hunting but if that doesn't work..." translates to "well, if Giannis suddenly wants to come here we will do it, but the most likely outcome is that we tank."

If we are going to have 26 million invested in a starting caliber player (if barely that) and just ... not play him, we are better off using one of our less valuable assets to move him to open up optionality and ensure that we are picking early lotto. (Imo) 48 minutes of Kessler/Collins is going to result in more wins than 48 minutes of Kessler/Filipowski/Eubanks. Collins will also get power forward minutes next to Filipowski, and maybe Eubanks, too, and will continue playing 25-30 minutes because there is time in the rotation for him, even if he doesnt start.

My thought process is just that Ainge doesn't seem to be able to use cap space at all so trading away a pick in the 20s to clear $26m in cap space is good value on paper, but Ainge will likely just squander all of that space.

The 2023 offseason was obviously a disasterclass, but the 2024 offseason has seen Ainge burn the leftover cap space on guys that don't really have any shot at being meaningful contributors. In both offseasons, the Jazz managed to get 0 picks out of their space while giving up a second as well.

So I would rather just have Collins not play as Ainge will just waste the cap space.

Filipowski getting minutes this year doesn't seem very important as he's too physically weak to compete in the NBA and just needs to gain muscle before anything else.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

I have Powell as a better player than Tim Hardaway. Not sure why LAC would trade him and a first for a worse player. The Collins trade doesn't help them much either because he's an overpaid 6th man type player. I think they can do better in a consolidation move

[ejftw]

Despite being one of the few Collins "fans," this would be a hard pass for me from the Clips. I view Powell as a better option to begin with, and it also costs the Clippers Bones and Coffey, the latter of which is one of the most reliable JAGs out there.

Would need to either route Hardaway somewhere for savings/pieces that are needed, as I'm not even sure he's better than a Bones (or BJ Boston, who they let walk) at this point or the first goes to LA with a second to Detroit, if even anything as I view Norm as a clear upgrade.

[babyjax13]

I have Powell as a better player than Tim Hardaway. Not sure why LAC would trade him and a first for a worse player. The Collins trade doesn't help them much either because he's an overpaid 6th man type player. I think they can do better in a consolidation move

Fwiw LAC isn't trading a first, Utah is.