[Woj] Official: Lauri renegotiates and extends with Utah 5/238M

[brackdan70]

Again, the issues with this approach are many

1. Lauri Markkanen has already been through two seasons of tanking and was openly unhappy with Ainge tanking. He will probably not want to stick around for another three years of tanking and will probably ask for a trade in the 2025 or 2026 offseason if nothing improves.

2. Lauri Markkanen's trade value is clearly much lower now than it was at the 2024 deadline because his contract is way bigger now.

3. Utah is one of the least appealing destinations in the entire league for any free agent or expiring. A conservative ruled state with few black people or Protestants is going to struggle to get NBA players interested before you factor in how ridiculously cheap the owner is and how bad the coach is and how bad the roster is. The GM's willingness to lie to and annoy the only star player on the roster is also a strong negative.

4. Ainge has no one with a debt or connection to him to rip off like he ripped off McHale in 2007. The Celtics clowned on Ainge over and over and over again last year and everyone else hates him too. There are also no Jazz people in the NBA in front office circles other than Dennis Lindsey, who probably has no love for the team.

5. The Jazz simply do not have appealing prospects or picks other than maybe their own 2025 pick to trade for high level players or to hope develop into guys better than Markkanen.

LAL 2027 top 4 protected pick…not bad. Cleveland and Minny picks in 2027,28,29…these have some upside as CBA implications kick in…we don’t know where these picks will be.

And off topic but the state is filled with Protestants.
Mormons are Protestants.maybe not as strictly defined, but in beliefs are pretty similar, just add a couple chapters.

"Yes. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is a Christian church but is neither Catholic nor Protestant. Rather, it is a restoration of the Church of Jesus Christ as originally established by the Savior in the New Testament of the Bible."

https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/frequently-asked-questions

They are not Protestants... According to the LDS Church itself.

(The beliefs are also wildly different from most mainline black Protestant churches and almost all mainline Christian churches)

The 2027 Lakers pick is not good due to the protections, the 2029 Wolves pick is top 5 protected and is even worse, the 2028 Cavs pick is a swap, the Jazz are not getting a 2028 pick or swap from the Wolves, the Cavs should be fine financially for the 2026-2027 season, and you have to assume a pretty dramatic meltdown within 3 years for the Wolves 2027 pick to be good.

The only pick with realistic upside is the 2029 Cavs' pick.

I’ll leave the religious stuff alone but from a non-religious pov they look like Protestants…but if your point is more cultural (lack of black Protestant community) then for sure.)
I guess the value of the picks is the eye of the beholder. But LAL only too 4 protected in 2027 loons really nice to me. Lebron will be gone…AD will be old, and there is a good chance it’s a lotto pick.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I mean, there's some chance that like the 2027 Lakers pick and 2029 Wolves pick are like in the 8-14 range I guess?

But that's the ceiling and that isn't a very good ceiling at all for years away picks, especially when they might be the 2nd and 3rd best incoming picks you've gotten.

It's really only the 2029 Cavs pick that has any intriguing upside though it will probably turn into nothing.

[BK_2020]

There's an incredibly huge gap between the strength of TnT board's belief in the predictability of lottery odds several years out and reality. The fact is there is no known or publicly available probability model that shows what a team's draft odds will be like in 3-4 years if that team has 39 year old Lebron and 31 year old AD (or, generalized, older stars making big money) as its core. People nevertheless insist that the Lakers will have great draft odds in the future because they can imagine the following:
1. Lebron retires
2. AD becomes ineffective or retires or leaves the Lakers
3. Lakers do not adequately replace them
Basically people believe in the future good pick theory because they can imagine one scenario where it is true. We don't know if it is more likely to happen than a number of other scenarios but to hell with that.

[jazzfan1971]

There's an incredibly huge gap between the strength of TnT board's belief in the predictability of lottery odds several years out and reality. The fact is there is no known or publicly available probability model that shows what a team's draft odds will be like in 3-4 years if that team has 39 year old Lebron and 31 year old AD (or, generalized, older stars making big money) as its core. People nevertheless insist that the Lakers will have great draft odds in the future because they can imagine the following:
1. Lebron retires
2. AD becomes ineffective or retires or leaves the Lakers
3. Lakers do not adequately replace them
Basically people believe in the future good pick theory because they can imagine one scenario where it is true. We don't know if it is more likely to happen than a number of other scenarios but to hell with that.

Some odds are better than others. But, yeah, it's still a crapshoot. Best thing to do is have many chances with what you think are the best odds you can muster. And after that things are a bit out of your control. But one thing is certain, you can't win if you don't play. Simply taking the most conservative route every time will lead to a very average team.

[HadAnEffectHere]

There's an incredibly huge gap between the strength of TnT board's belief in the predictability of lottery odds several years out and reality. The fact is there is no known or publicly available probability model that shows what a team's draft odds will be like in 3-4 years if that team has 39 year old Lebron and 31 year old AD (or, generalized, older stars making big money) as its core. People nevertheless insist that the Lakers will have great draft odds in the future because they can imagine the following:
1. Lebron retires
2. AD becomes ineffective or retires or leaves the Lakers
3. Lakers do not adequately replace them
Basically people believe in the future good pick theory because they can imagine one scenario where it is true. We don't know if it is more likely to happen than a number of other scenarios but to hell with that.

I mean, yes, there's a lot of variability here in general, but the top 4 protection on the Lakers pick and the top 5 protection on the Wolves pick just kind of kills them as very valuable because it takes away the high end upside.

Like, I do think there's a chance these picks turn into late lottery picks which would be fine and fairly valuable, but there's also the scenarios of:

1. These picks do not convey (very possible with the flat lottery odds)
2. The Lakers and Wolves are playoff teams (and they'll be heavily motivated to aim for the postseason due to owing their pick)

So the 2027 Lakers pick and 2029 Wolves pick lack high end up upside, have a very good chance of not conveying, and could just end up as mid first round picks.

Which is like... OK I guess, but nothing note worthy at all.

That these are the most valuable picks other than the 2029 Cavs' pick is pretty bad as a signal for Utah's prospect+pick collection.

Without the protections, I would be a lot more hopeful about Utah's future than I am now just because the Jazz would have more realistic shots at stars. As is, it does not look good at all.