How credible is a Steph Curry GOAT case?

[Djoker]

To be frank, it’s pretty obvious this would be a LeBron thread. Cross-era comparisons have more uncertainty than within era comparisons (this should be self-evident, I think), and Steph played concurrently with a GOAT candidate: LeBron James. For him to have a GOAT case (the topic) the easiest place to start is seeing if he has a case against LeBron. If he doesn’t (the conclusion that most people have reasonably reached), then he cannot have a GOAT case.

I think I may not have worded my point all that well.

What bothers me isn't the Curry v. Lebron comparison because that should definitely be expected but just the same group of posters who are all very pro-Lebron coming out in every thread and saying "no case whatsoever" and making biased, over the top statements. That just rubs me the wrong way and most of the threads just devolve into strawmanning, name calling and personal attacks. It feels that some people on here really need to be more open-minded.

I have Curry ranked 13th on my all-time list and I think he has a real argument up to the 6/7 range aka around where I have Magic.

If you’re going to argue for him as GOAT though, the path you need to take is pretty obvious.

- Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are overrated and were only able to maximize their impact because of Steph’s one of a kind offensive skill set

While that may be true to a degree, it’s clear that those 2 were still valuable players who had clear A+ strengths to their game (Klay’s shooting, Dray’s defense).

2014-2016 GSW
Big 3 (w/ Curry) —— 16.43 Net (5653 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Curry) —— 6.43 Net (1214 Mins)

Curry’s ability to lift their ceiling is obviously special. That’s his main argument. But it’s hard to point to Klay/Dray being bums when they led the Warriors to such a high mark even without Curry on the floor.

That 6.43 net would rank 3rd/3rd/4th in the league in those 3 years. So those Warriors teams even before KD isn’t some case of Steph lifting a bunch of bums. That was a hell of a team that was obviously centered around him but more than just him. Let’s compare those 3 years to some other great 3 year runs with a teams top 3 players…

2012-2014 Miami Heat (James/Wade/Bosh)
Big 3 (w/ James) —— 9.19 Net (5137 mins)
Big 3 (w/o James) —— -2.87 Net (815 mins)

2015-2017 Cleveland Cavs (James/Kyrie/Love)
Big 3 (w/ James) —— 11.61 Net (4675 mins)
Big 3 (w/o James) —— -2.28 Net (1168 mins)

2005-2007 San Antonio Spurs (Duncan/Manu/Parker)
Big 3 (w/ Duncan) —— 14.71 Net (4198 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Duncan) —— 9.93 Net (1265 mins)

2008-2010 LA Lakers (Kobe/Pau/Odom)
Big 3 (w/ Kobe) —— 12.63 Net (4695 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Kobe) —— 9.19 Net (879 mins)

2001-2003 LA Lakers (Shaq/Kobe/Fisher)
Big 3 (w/ Shaq) —— 9.72 Net (4360 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Shaq) —— -0.02 Net (1547 mins)

2021-2023 Milwaukee Bucks (Giannis/Jrue/Middleton)
Big 3 (w/ Giannis) —— 11.82 Net (2600 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Giannis) —— 4.77 Net (1515 mins)

2022-2024 Denver Nuggets (Jokic/Murray/Gordon)
Big 3 (w/ Jokic) —— 12.00 Net (3243 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Jokic) —— -2.40 Net (522 mins)

2013-2015 LA Clippers (Paul/Griffin/Jordan)
Big 3 (w/ Paul) —— 11.51 Net (5947 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Paul) —— 2.18 Net (1073 mins)

2014-2016 OKC Thunder (Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka)
Big 3 (w/ KD) —— 10.56 Net (4614 mins)
Big 3 (w/o KD) —— 3.08 Net (1391 mins)

What we see from the limited things we have here are that Curry is a beast even though he has good teammates. He can carry a team to greatness. His shooting and off-ball killer play might be able to allow a team to reach heights no other player can do. Draymond and Klay have been real good, let’s put an end to any Curry carry job like that.

Curry really helps Dray offensively for sure but overall he’s the 2nd best player I’ve seen since MJ (LeBron). Kobe vs. Curry is tough. Actually make that 3rd at best, because I think he still needs to do a little more to catch Duncan. Shaq was also Shaq. Curry is one a kind though. Awesome athlete.

LeBron and Jokic stand out still. Among all these guys and yet only a couple can ever get to that level. It’s the scoring/passing/other stuff too combo. These two guys are the best I’ve seen at their peak since MJ. Peak Jokic vs Peak TD is tough, and then obviously TD has longevity. Duncan and KD are close to that here too.

Great post.

Honestly from those numbers you posted, they very much paint Curry in a positive light. His ON-OFF is worse than Lebron but it comes with a much larger ON rating.

[AEnigma]

To be frank, it’s pretty obvious this would be a LeBron thread. Cross-era comparisons have more uncertainty than within era comparisons (this should be self-evident, I think), and Steph played concurrently with a GOAT candidate: LeBron James. For him to have a GOAT case (the topic) the easiest place to start is seeing if he has a case against LeBron. If he doesn’t (the conclusion that most people have reasonably reached), then he cannot have a GOAT case.

I think I may not have worded my point all that well.

What bothers me isn't the Curry v. Lebron comparison because that should definitely be expected but just the same group of posters who are all very pro-Lebron coming out in every thread and saying "no case whatsoever"

Do you expect anyone to believe your honest sentiment is that only “pro-Lebron” posters think this is completely non-credible.

and making biased, over the top statements.

Hilariously oblivious statement considering the title and content of your thread.

Still, someone might have momentarily thought you might be speaking honestly here if you had not been shameless enough to broadcast this obvious falsity:

Lebron doesn't have any 5-year stretches that can match 2015-2019 Curry in terms of impact metrics

Again: wholly unserious.

That just rubs me the wrong way

So sorry to hear that it rubs you the wrong way when people call you out. Nothing worse than having our personal pet peeves show up regularly in our daily life. For example, my pet peeve is dishonesty. Really rubs me the wrong way when I see it, and unfortunately I see it all the time.

and most of the threads just devolve into strawmanning, name calling and personal attacks.

Maybe stop baiting.

It feels that some people on here really need to be more open-minded.

“I think people should be more open-minded about the possibility that worse players are better than better players.”

What truly gives this game up is that multiple people brought up the ostensibly implied Jordan comparison… and you completely disregarded them in favour of trying to push Curry over Lebron specifically. When I saw this thread posted, I thought, Well, at least it is an improvement over the “Magic and Bird over Lebron????” bait thread, but that façade lasted all of six posts before you predictably discarded it.

You do not get to habitually grief Lebron and then pretend the backlash is everyone else’s fault. Have some respect for your audience here; no one buys the woe is me act.

[SlimShady83]

He should be In everyones top 10 IMO

[70sFan]

I can entertain top 10 case for him (I don't have him that high, but he's close). GOAT is absolutely out of reach based on my criteria and I don't see any criteria putting him that high.

[Amares]

From my perspective, he's a top 10 candidate, but he's not even halfway to being the GOAT. There's a huge difference between both tiers, and considering his age and time it's zero chance already.

[CodeBreaker]

Curry before the Semis and Finals of the Olympics is a clear evidence why he has no case as the GOAT.

When his shots are not falling, he's basically a liability on the floor.

[OhayoKD]

Lebron had at worst similar impact signals (and at best unparalelled outside bill russel impact on team improvement)

led better offenses while playing with better defense showing to b a better ceiling raiser on both ends

At his peak had 2 consecutive years with better playoff offense with kyrie and love than curry did with klay and durant

maintained better playoffs value

Over a more than twice as long prime

Was a more portable player as he adapted to all kinds of teams and roles from heliocentric carry jobs, hyper efficieny on ball/off ball hybrid scorer, pass first point guard, cutting/rolling monster with low ish time of possesion

Outplayed curry head to head

Defined a player archetype as point forward with 3/4 versatility in both ends that alongside harden archetype of guards has been replicated all across the nba (whereas curry off ball approach and warriors approach has not became the norm)

If he has no case vs a contemporaneous player i dont see his overall case

Impact signals are neck and neck.

Nah:

Like Nash, LeBron was supercharging dependent talent — finishers who disproportionately benefited from shots served to them on a silver platter. So with his talents in South Beach, Cleveland crumbled in 2011. While most teams fall off after losing a superstar, none imploded like the Lebron-less Cavs; in 21 games with a similar group of players, they played at an anemic 18-win pace (-8.9 SRS) before injuries ravaged their lineup.

By raw regular-season signals, Steph has an argument for #2 over the last 50-years. The problem is he's running against the #1, which means making an impact argument relies on omitting the gold-standard of impact data.

You also have to side-step his relatively lacking RAPM where he's at a hard cieling of 4th for data-ball behind Lebron, KG, and Duncan unless you deliberately filter out their best RAPM marks, disregard the concept of replication(which is to a degree, the point of RAPM), and ignore volume (RAPM is a rate stat!)

The best regular-season player of the last 50-years by impact is Lebron James. He is also in the running as the most reselient alongside Hakeem with 2015-2018 in particular being a statistical magnum opus for playoff elevation. (in 2015 they are very impressive despite a slew of key injuries, and from 2016-2018 they see massive team-wide improvement in Lebron-lineups while Lebron-less ones get worse). That is particularly problematic for the following claim...

Lebron is emphatically not a better ceiling raiser than Curry.

When by non-box approaches 15-17 Lebron grades out at the tippity top historically of regular-season value.


Unless top 40ish all-time teams (that is with no attempt at injury adjustment) do not constitute ceiling raising(and why wouldn't they?), Lebron has demonstrated more impact as a ceiling raisier in his early 30's. If you, correctly imo, prioritise postseason games, this becomes an even flimiser case as the cavs were by all metrics but raw title-count an all-time team, paticularly in 16/17 which are the two seasons they had all 3 stars involved.

Miami also looked all-time in 2012 despite major injury issues (Bosh missed 8 games, Wade was one leg for 3/4 playoff rounds), and Miami were able to survive the second of three back to back all-time finals opponents in 2013 despite the team functionally becoming a one-star team with injury by the postseason.

Both runs had Lebron looking like one of the most valuable players post-merger using game-level signals despite playing out of his natural position with a very similar co-star. Needless to say, Steph has no equivalent of this (actually the number of players with an equivalent is exceedingly rare).

This suggests the reasonable floor of a Lebron evaluation is also rather high. On-top of what is a nigh-unrivalled cieling.

Steph's teams reached way greater heights both in general and with him on the floor.

There seems to be a misunderstand of what "cieling-raising" denotes. The critical component here is not "how good the team was", but "how valuable were you to that level of team". What you are arguing for is not "steph has been on better teams", but rather "Steph has more value to x level of team". You need to

A. define cieling-raising to apply to an X treshold of team quality
B. demonstrate player A is generally more valuable to teams that cross that treshold

If you cannot fufill either task, then you really have no business claiming "cieling-raising" is advantageous for Steph

I have Curry ranked 13th on my all-time list and I think he has a real argument up to the 6/7 range aka around where I have Magic.

If you’re going to argue for him as GOAT though, the path you need to take is pretty obvious.
i

0_6 proceeds to argue for Lebron and Jokic as better looking "cieling-raising" stand-outs noting that Steph doesn't actually stand out by even this specifically custom-made "cieling-raising" lens. Curry being top 10 or 6-7 all-time is not the same as him having a case against Lebron.

[SpreeS]

Curry case for GOAT is non existent. I want to see converstion between Magic vs Curry

[Ian Scuffling]

Lebron had at worst similar impact signals (and at best unparalelled outside bill russel impact on team improvement)

led better offenses while playing with better defense showing to b a better ceiling raiser on both ends

At his peak had 2 consecutive years with better playoff offense with kyrie and love than curry did with klay and durant

maintained better playoffs value

Over a more than twice as long prime

Was a more portable player as he adapted to all kinds of teams and roles from heliocentric carry jobs, hyper efficieny on ball/off ball hybrid scorer, pass first point guard, cutting/rolling monster with low ish time of possesion

Outplayed curry head to head

Defined a player archetype as point forward with 3/4 versatility in both ends that alongside harden archetype of guards has been replicated all across the nba (whereas curry off ball approach and warriors approach has not became the norm)

If he has no case vs a contemporaneous player i dont see his overall case

Impact signals are neck and neck.

If you ignore playoffs and ignore the massive career edge.

Lebron is emphatically not a better ceiling raiser than Curry. Steph's teams reached way greater heights both in general and with him on the floor.

Yet again, despite your interest in defining it this way, “ceiling raising” is not about whether you had better rosters around you. On functionally equal rosters, Lebron produces the better team because his defence is a value add that Curry can never remotely match.

Outproducing someone isn't the same as outplaying. Wilt also outproduced Russell but people don't unanimously agree that Wilt outplayed him.

Fortunately Lebron did both.

Not to mention Lebron and Curry don't even play the same position.

This is a cheap way of attempting to dismiss Lebron’s massive defensive advantage. Lebron can play point; Curry cannot play forward.

And more portable than Curry is just a comical take.

Offensively portable, sure. But here too, “portability” is not a one-way concept, no matter how much you want to pretend it is.

I don't care if you think Lebron is the GOAT. Many people do but your post is full of fallacies.

Evidently fewer than yours.

Ouch. Well done.

[oaktownwarriors87]

No chance he's above Jordan. No point in even having the discussion.

He'd have to win another MVP and ring to even entertain the idea. I don't think he has it in him.

[Djoker]

To be frank, it’s pretty obvious this would be a LeBron thread. Cross-era comparisons have more uncertainty than within era comparisons (this should be self-evident, I think), and Steph played concurrently with a GOAT candidate: LeBron James. For him to have a GOAT case (the topic) the easiest place to start is seeing if he has a case against LeBron. If he doesn’t (the conclusion that most people have reasonably reached), then he cannot have a GOAT case.

I think I may not have worded my point all that well.

What bothers me isn't the Curry v. Lebron comparison because that should definitely be expected but just the same group of posters who are all very pro-Lebron coming out in every thread and saying "no case whatsoever"

Do you expect anyone to believe your honest sentiment is that only “pro-Lebron” posters think this is completely non-credible.

and making biased, over the top statements.

Hilariously oblivious statement considering the title and content of your thread.

Still, someone might have momentarily thought you might be speaking honestly here if you had not been shameless enough to broadcast this obvious falsity:

Lebron doesn't have any 5-year stretches that can match 2015-2019 Curry in terms of impact metrics

Again: wholly unserious.

That just rubs me the wrong way

So sorry to hear that it rubs you the wrong way when people call you out. Nothing worse than having our personal pet peeves show up regularly in our daily life. For example, my pet peeve is dishonesty. Really rubs me the wrong way when I see it, and unfortunately I see it all the time.

and most of the threads just devolve into strawmanning, name calling and personal attacks.

Maybe stop baiting.

It feels that some people on here really need to be more open-minded.

“I think people should be more open-minded about the possibility that worse players are better than better players.”

What truly gives this game up is that multiple people brought up the ostensibly implied Jordan comparison… and you completely disregarded them in favour of trying to push Curry over Lebron specifically. When I saw this thread posted, I thought, Well, at least it is an improvement over the “Magic and Bird over Lebron????” bait thread, but that façade lasted all of six posts before you predictably discarded it.

You do not get to habitually grief Lebron and then pretend the backlash is everyone else’s fault. Have some respect for your audience here; no one buys the woe is me act.

You think I started this thread to grief on Lebron? Ok you're entitled to your opinion. I don't even think that Curry is the GOAT or better than Lebron for that matter. I just started a thread to discuss his case not to have the thread ruined by completely biased takes and what are quite frankly angry posts which are unwarranted. I take the blame for responding to falco's first post. I should know better by now.

Here is the "falsity" I posted regarding 2015-2019 since you're again misquoting me. You're like those political ads that take sound bites of someone without context.

Lebron doesn't have any 5-year stretches that can match 2015-2019 Curry in terms of impact metrics, especially in the RS

2015-2019 RS
Curry ON: +15.9
Curry OFF: -1.8
Curry ON-OFF: +17.7

Give me a 5-year Lebron stretch comparable to the above. You can't...

2015-2019 PS
Curry ON: +9.8
Curry OFF: -0.7
Curry ON-OFF: +10.5

In the PS, the numbers are closer and Lebron has stretches that beat Curry's ON-OFF but Curry's ON value is still higher than any 5-year stretch of Lebron. That's why I said "especially in the RS" part which you omitted. Anyways Curry's playoff data here is also skewed by missing the early round games in 2016 and 2018 which his team won without him. Basically his sample is disproportionately latter rounds of the playoffs. Lebron can definitely be argued over him for PS stretches although the PS does have a larger uncertainty because of smaller sample size so it's far from a slam dunk in either direction.

But anyways, my statement wasn't a falsity.

[AEnigma]

I think I may not have worded my point all that well.

What bothers me isn't the Curry v. Lebron comparison because that should definitely be expected but just the same group of posters who are all very pro-Lebron coming out in every thread and saying "no case whatsoever"

Do you expect anyone to believe your honest sentiment is that only “pro-Lebron” posters think this is completely non-credible.

and making biased, over the top statements.

Hilariously oblivious statement considering the title and content of your thread.

Still, someone might have momentarily thought you might be speaking honestly here if you had not been shameless enough to broadcast this obvious falsity:

Lebron doesn't have any 5-year stretches that can match 2015-2019 Curry in terms of impact metrics

Again: wholly unserious.

That just rubs me the wrong way

So sorry to hear that it rubs you the wrong way when people call you out. Nothing worse than having our personal pet peeves show up regularly in our daily life. For example, my pet peeve is dishonesty. Really rubs me the wrong way when I see it, and unfortunately I see it all the time.

and most of the threads just devolve into strawmanning, name calling and personal attacks.

Maybe stop baiting.

It feels that some people on here really need to be more open-minded.

“I think people should be more open-minded about the possibility that worse players are better than better players.”

What truly gives this game up is that multiple people brought up the ostensibly implied Jordan comparison… and you completely disregarded them in favour of trying to push Curry over Lebron specifically. When I saw this thread posted, I thought, Well, at least it is an improvement over the “Magic and Bird over Lebron????” bait thread, but that façade lasted all of six posts before you predictably discarded it.

You do not get to habitually grief Lebron and then pretend the backlash is everyone else’s fault. Have some respect for your audience here; no one buys the woe is me act.

You think I started this thread to grief on Lebron? Ok you're entitled to your opinion. I don't even think that Curry is the GOAT or better than Lebron for that matter. I just started a thread to discuss his case not to have the thread ruined by completely biased takes and what are quite frankly angry posts which are unwarranted. I take the blame for responding to falco's first post. I should know better by now.

Here is the "falsity" I posted regarding 2015-2019 since you're again misquoting me. You're like those political ads that take sound bites of someone without context.

Lebron doesn't have any 5-year stretches that can match 2015-2019 Curry in terms of impact metrics, especially in the RS

2015-2019 RS
Curry ON: +15.9
Curry OFF: -1.8
Curry ON-OFF: +17.7

Give me a 5-year Lebron stretch comparable to the above. You can't...

2015-2019 PS
Curry ON: +9.8
Curry OFF: -0.7
Curry ON-OFF: +10.5

In the PS, the numbers are closer and Lebron has stretches that beat Curry's ON-OFF but Curry's ON value is still higher than any 5-year stretch of Lebron. That's why I said "especially in the RS" part which you omitted. Anyways Curry's playoff data here is also skewed by missing the early round games in 2016 and 2018 which his team won without him. Basically his sample is disproportionately latter rounds of the playoffs. Lebron can definitely be argued over him for PS stretches although the PS does have a larger uncertainty because of smaller sample size so it's far from a slam dunk in either direction.

But anyways, my statement wasn't a falsity.

So now you think that when you say “impact metrics”, all that means is regular season on/off?



If you wanted to say on/off, you would have. You did not, because even you have enough awareness to know that is not a coherent argument for a player.

Unserious.

[lessthanjake]

I think the argument for Steph as GOAT would have to be that he has been the most impactful player in the NBA during his prime* and his prime is more recent (and therefore was in a league with a higher standard of play) than other GOAT candidates’ primes. That’d then get combined with the somewhat intangible stuff about changing the game and being the clear best ever at the game’s most fundamental skill (shooting). I think that’s at least a *credible* argument, but you’d probably have to put little weight on things like box stats, longevity, and titles won in order to get to the conclusion that that makes Steph the GOAT, since there’s several players who seem at least comparable in impact and have notable advantages in one or more of those other areas.

___________________

* Just for reference on the thing I said above about impact that often seems to somehow serve as a weird bat signal for a certain kind of poster here, please see below for how Steph and LeBron have stacked up against each other in a huge number of impact metrics in Steph’s prime (i.e. starting in 2014). Listed below is who is ahead in each one in the metrics’ given time periods (some year-by-year, others with 3-year or 5-year intervals). This is copied from a prior post of mine (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=114218563#p114218563), which itself copied from another prior post of mine from over a year ago (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107697936#p107697936), so this is information that has been out there on these forums for a long time now, and you can check out those posts for a lot of additional discussion and information.

NBAshotcharts 5-Year RAPM

2013-2018: Curry
2014-2019: Curry
2015-2020: Curry
2016-2021: Curry
2017-2022: Curry
2018-2023: Curry

GitHub Regular Season RAPM

2013-2014: Curry
2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: Curry
2016-2017: Curry
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: Curry

GitHub Playoff RAPM

2013-2014: LeBron
2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: LeBron
2016-2017: Curry
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: N/A

Cheema 5-Year RAPM

2014-2018: Curry
2015-2019: Curry
2016-2020: LeBron
2017-2021: LeBron

Engelmann PI RAPM

2013-2014: LeBron
2014-2015: LeBron
2015-2016: LeBron
2016-2017: Curry
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: Curry

Real Plus Minus

2013-2014: Curry
2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: Curry
2016-2017: Curry
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: Curry
2019-2020: N/A
2020-2021: Curry
2021-2022: Curry
2022-2023: LeBron

Estimated Plus Minus

2013-2014: Curry
2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: Curry
2016-2017: Curry
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: Curry
2019-2020: N/A
2020-2021: Curry
2021-2022: Curry
2022-2023: Curry

Regular Season RAPTOR

2013-2014: Curry
2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: Curry
2016-2017: Curry
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: Curry
2019-2020: N/A
2020-2021: Curry
2021-2022: Curry
2022-2023: Curry

Playoff RAPTOR

2013-2014: Curry
2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: LeBron
2016-2017: Curry
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: N/A
2019-2020: N/A
2020-2021: N/A
2021-2022: N/A
2022-2023: Curry

Regular Season AuPM/g

2013-2014: Curry
2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: Curry
2016-2017: Curry
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: Curry
2019-2020: N/A
2020-2021: LeBron
2021-2022: Curry
2022-2023: LeBron

Playoff AuPM/g

2013-2014: Curry
2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: LeBron
2016-2017: LeBron
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: N/A
2019-2020: N/A
2020-2021: N/A
2021-2022: N/A
2022-2023: Curry

LEBRON

2013-2014: Curry
2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: LeBron
2016-2017: Curry
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: Curry
2019-2020: N/A
2020-2021: LeBron
2021-2022: Curry
2022-2023: LeBron

Goldstein PIPM

2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: Curry
2016-2017: Curry

Basketball Database Three-Year RAPM

2014-2016: Curry
2015-2017: Curry
2016-2018: Curry
2017-2019: Curry
2018-2020: Curry
2019-2021: LeBron
2020-2022: Curry
2021-2023: Curry
2022-2024: Curry

Basketball Database Five-Year RAPM

2014-2018: Curry
2015-2019: Curry
2016-2020: Curry
2017-2021: Curry
2018-2022: Curry
2019-2023: Curry
2020-2024: LeBron

Basketball Database PIPM

2013-2014: Curry
2014-2015: Curry
2015-2016: Curry
2016-2017: Curry
2017-2018: Curry
2018-2019: Curry
2019-2020: N/A
2020-2021: Curry
2021-2022: Curry
2022-2023: LeBron

[AEnigma]

You can keep posting that as if no one knows the obvious retort:

There are a couple of things.

1)Yes, Steph had the most impressive RS plus-minus portfolio from 15-onward, which would classify as "prime Lebron years." However, levels of play vary throughout a prime. By the typical metrics, the heart of Lebron's prime was from 09-13. Though, let's just say we assume Curry was better than the best stretches that Lebron ever authored in the RS, the next point is the biggest selling point for why Curry isn't seen as serious threat to Lebron in general impact.


2) You said you demonstrated Steph was the impact king of the era, but as people have alluded to in the past, we are not just looking at his RS production for this. Whether you think it is fair or not, people have a large PS focus on this board, and it is clear the true impact king during the heart of Curry's prime in the playoffs was Lebron. That is why Lebron during that span gets designated as a better player, by most on this board. If you look at numbers from that 15-22 period for Lebron "He was the impact king of that era, and it wasn’t even particularly close.


From 15-22 in the PS (6 PS), Lebron's impact metrics look like the following:

Backpicks BPM-8.3

Average PS AuPM/G-5.8

BPM-10.4

Minutes Weighted RAPTOR-9.2


For reference,

Steph in half-time that time (3-year time span) during this span, has 3-year peaks of the following:

Backpicks BPM-6.9

Average PS AuPM/G-5.2

BPM-8.5

Minutes Weighted RAPTOR-8.75


Lebron over that sample, outperformed Curry's best 3-year stretches on a per-possession basis. I think that is notable, and shows how Lebron was able to sustain a higher level of play over a longer period.

It's hard to get numbers for the exact time period in play (15-22), but I think that gives you a decent starting point for where the belief of Lebron>Steph would come from.

Some other additional numbers:

2015-2020 PS PIPM

Lebron-7.37 (#1 over this span)

Steph-3.95 (#8 over this span)


14-18 RAPM

Lebron-5.18 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.62 (#5 over this span)


15-19 RAPM

Lebron-4.96 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.84 (#7 over this span)

Overall, Lebron lead offenses peaked higher as well during this period, and with his defense being generally being elite, I will side with him.

If you look at shorter peak PS stretches such as single year or 3-year PS stretches, I think once again, Lebron comes out looking stronger. According Backpicks, the 2015-17 Cavs have the 3rd best unique offensive PS stretch for relative offensive rating, and keep in mind Lebron did not have a healthy Kyrie or KLove for much of the 2015 PS. This once surpasses the Warriors offensive performance.

If you don't like using relative offensive rating to judge playoff offense, there is another method called common offensive rating.
Common offensive rating is comparing a team’s postseason play to other teams against that same given opponent (for that particular PS). The rORTG is also listed on the side too for those who, where a team’s playoff offensive rating is compared to it’s opponent’s regular season defensive ratings. The Cavs have the best common offensive rating of the time period.

The best 3-year offenses and defense (minimum of 20 games played across three postseason trips), we see the following unique team peaks in playoff offense per common offensive rating (cORTG) via Backpicks since 1984 (but only other potential contenders would be if you go back to Mikan days).

Team Year cORTG rORTG
CLE 2015-17 13.0 9.5


MIA 2012-14 9.7 8.7

LAL 1987-89 9.4 9


CHI 1991-93 8.8 8.4

CHI 1994-96 8.3 6.9

Lebron's offenses come out looking better under this approach as well. The 2016 Cavs (+15.3 cORTG) and 2017 Cavs (+14.6) have the two highest single-season offensive marks using this approach. Under the 3-year guise, the Cavs would be at least #1 going back to 1984.

There is just clear evidence Lebron ups his game to another level on average during this point, which is why the argument for Lebron is so enticing.

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E984343411850297344%7Ctwgr%5E470244aa2306bb254a29f4cd99be133c2de898e7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D2290454start%3D80

If Lebron is arguably a better PS offensive player by the data, then I don't see how Curry could make up the difference once defense is factored in as well. Shifting gears to a holistic view, the post don't factor in what many would consider Lebron's peak years, such as 09, 12, 13, the idea that Steph was ever truly as impactful as Lebron in terms of driving championship equity is a hard sell. And this is what people stress when focusing on impact. It is why Hakeem still gets thrusted above David Robinson.

“Curry was the most impactful regular season player across a five-or-six year sample” is an incoherent GOAT standard. Which again you both know.

[PistolPeteJR]

To be frank, it’s pretty obvious this would be a LeBron thread. Cross-era comparisons have more uncertainty than within era comparisons (this should be self-evident, I think), and Steph played concurrently with a GOAT candidate: LeBron James. For him to have a GOAT case (the topic) the easiest place to start is seeing if he has a case against LeBron. If he doesn’t (the conclusion that most people have reasonably reached), then he cannot have a GOAT case.

I think I may not have worded my point all that well.

What bothers me isn't the Curry v. Lebron comparison because that should definitely be expected but just the same group of posters who are all very pro-Lebron coming out in every thread and saying "no case whatsoever" and making biased, over the top statements. That just rubs me the wrong way and most of the threads just devolve into strawmanning, name calling and personal attacks. It feels that some people on here really need to be more open-minded.

I have Curry ranked 13th on my all-time list and I think he has a real argument up to the 6/7 range aka around where I have Magic.

If you’re going to argue for him as GOAT though, the path you need to take is pretty obvious.

- Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are overrated and were only able to maximize their impact because of Steph’s one of a kind offensive skill set

While that may be true to a degree, it’s clear that those 2 were still valuable players who had clear A+ strengths to their game (Klay’s shooting, Dray’s defense).

2014-2016 GSW
Big 3 (w/ Curry) —— 16.43 Net (5653 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Curry) —— 6.43 Net (1214 Mins)

Curry’s ability to lift their ceiling is obviously special. That’s his main argument. But it’s hard to point to Klay/Dray being bums when they led the Warriors to such a high mark even without Curry on the floor.

That 6.43 net would rank 3rd/3rd/4th in the league in those 3 years. So those Warriors teams even before KD isn’t some case of Steph lifting a bunch of bums. That was a hell of a team that was obviously centered around him but more than just him. Let’s compare those 3 years to some other great 3 year runs with a teams top 3 players…

2012-2014 Miami Heat (James/Wade/Bosh)
Big 3 (w/ James) —— 9.19 Net (5137 mins)
Big 3 (w/o James) —— -2.87 Net (815 mins)

2015-2017 Cleveland Cavs (James/Kyrie/Love)
Big 3 (w/ James) —— 11.61 Net (4675 mins)
Big 3 (w/o James) —— -2.28 Net (1168 mins)

2005-2007 San Antonio Spurs (Duncan/Manu/Parker)
Big 3 (w/ Duncan) —— 14.71 Net (4198 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Duncan) —— 9.93 Net (1265 mins)

2008-2010 LA Lakers (Kobe/Pau/Odom)
Big 3 (w/ Kobe) —— 12.63 Net (4695 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Kobe) —— 9.19 Net (879 mins)

2001-2003 LA Lakers (Shaq/Kobe/Fisher)
Big 3 (w/ Shaq) —— 9.72 Net (4360 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Shaq) —— -0.02 Net (1547 mins)

2021-2023 Milwaukee Bucks (Giannis/Jrue/Middleton)
Big 3 (w/ Giannis) —— 11.82 Net (2600 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Giannis) —— 4.77 Net (1515 mins)

2022-2024 Denver Nuggets (Jokic/Murray/Gordon)
Big 3 (w/ Jokic) —— 12.00 Net (3243 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Jokic) —— -2.40 Net (522 mins)

2013-2015 LA Clippers (Paul/Griffin/Jordan)
Big 3 (w/ Paul) —— 11.51 Net (5947 mins)
Big 3 (w/o Paul) —— 2.18 Net (1073 mins)

2014-2016 OKC Thunder (Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka)
Big 3 (w/ KD) —— 10.56 Net (4614 mins)
Big 3 (w/o KD) —— 3.08 Net (1391 mins)

What we see from the limited things we have here are that Curry is a beast even though he has good teammates. He can carry a team to greatness. His shooting and off-ball killer play might be able to allow a team to reach heights no other player can do. Draymond and Klay have been real good, let’s put an end to any Curry carry job like that.

Curry really helps Dray offensively for sure but overall he’s the 2nd best player I’ve seen since MJ (LeBron). Kobe vs. Curry is tough. Actually make that 3rd at best, because I think he still needs to do a little more to catch Duncan. Shaq was also Shaq. Curry is one a kind though. Awesome athlete.

LeBron and Jokic stand out still. Among all these guys and yet only a couple can ever get to that level. It’s the scoring/passing/other stuff too combo. These two guys are the best I’ve seen at their peak since MJ. Peak Jokic vs Peak TD is tough, and then obviously TD has longevity. Duncan and KD are close to that here too.

Great post.

Honestly from those numbers you posted, they very much paint Curry in a positive light. His ON-OFF is worse than Lebron but it comes with a much larger ON rating.

So you take exception with people you perceive as “pro-LeBron” saying there’s no case whatsoever? Why should you take exception with that? Could it be that that is, objectively speaking, the sound reality? People have explained why and how in this thread and others. This isn’t the first time this discussion has been had, not even the tenth.

[PistolPeteJR]

I can entertain top 10 case for him (I don't have him that high, but he's close). GOAT is absolutely out of reach based on my criteria and I don't see any criteria putting him that high.

This is me, basically. I don’t have him as top-10 yet, but somewhere around 12-13th. He can make top-10 though by the end of his career.

[lessthanjake]

You can keep posting that as if no one knows the obvious retort:

There are a couple of things.

1)Yes, Steph had the most impressive RS plus-minus portfolio from 15-onward, which would classify as "prime Lebron years." However, levels of play vary throughout a prime. By the typical metrics, the heart of Lebron's prime was from 09-13. Though, let's just say we assume Curry was better than the best stretches that Lebron ever authored in the RS, the next point is the biggest selling point for why Curry isn't seen as serious threat to Lebron in general impact.


2) You said you demonstrated Steph was the impact king of the era, but as people have alluded to in the past, we are not just looking at his RS production for this. Whether you think it is fair or not, people have a large PS focus on this board, and it is clear the true impact king during the heart of Curry's prime in the playoffs was Lebron. That is why Lebron during that span gets designated as a better player, by most on this board. If you look at numbers from that 15-22 period for Lebron "He was the impact king of that era, and it wasn’t even particularly close.


From 15-22 in the PS (6 PS), Lebron's impact metrics look like the following:

Backpicks BPM-8.3

Average PS AuPM/G-5.8

BPM-10.4

Minutes Weighted RAPTOR-9.2


For reference,

Steph in half-time that time (3-year time span) during this span, has 3-year peaks of the following:

Backpicks BPM-6.9

Average PS AuPM/G-5.2

BPM-8.5

Minutes Weighted RAPTOR-8.75


Lebron over that sample, outperformed Curry's best 3-year stretches on a per-possession basis. I think that is notable, and shows how Lebron was able to sustain a higher level of play over a longer period.

It's hard to get numbers for the exact time period in play (15-22), but I think that gives you a decent starting point for where the belief of Lebron>Steph would come from.

Some other additional numbers:

2015-2020 PS PIPM

Lebron-7.37 (#1 over this span)

Steph-3.95 (#8 over this span)


14-18 RAPM

Lebron-5.18 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.62 (#5 over this span)


15-19 RAPM

Lebron-4.96 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.84 (#7 over this span)

Overall, Lebron lead offenses peaked higher as well during this period, and with his defense being generally being elite, I will side with him.

If you look at shorter peak PS stretches such as single year or 3-year PS stretches, I think once again, Lebron comes out looking stronger. According Backpicks, the 2015-17 Cavs have the 3rd best unique offensive PS stretch for relative offensive rating, and keep in mind Lebron did not have a healthy Kyrie or KLove for much of the 2015 PS. This once surpasses the Warriors offensive performance.

If you don't like using relative offensive rating to judge playoff offense, there is another method called common offensive rating.
Common offensive rating is comparing a team’s postseason play to other teams against that same given opponent (for that particular PS). The rORTG is also listed on the side too for those who, where a team’s playoff offensive rating is compared to it’s opponent’s regular season defensive ratings. The Cavs have the best common offensive rating of the time period.

The best 3-year offenses and defense (minimum of 20 games played across three postseason trips), we see the following unique team peaks in playoff offense per common offensive rating (cORTG) via Backpicks since 1984 (but only other potential contenders would be if you go back to Mikan days).

Team Year cORTG rORTG
CLE 2015-17 13.0 9.5


MIA 2012-14 9.7 8.7

LAL 1987-89 9.4 9


CHI 1991-93 8.8 8.4

CHI 1994-96 8.3 6.9

Lebron's offenses come out looking better under this approach as well. The 2016 Cavs (+15.3 cORTG) and 2017 Cavs (+14.6) have the two highest single-season offensive marks using this approach. Under the 3-year guise, the Cavs would be at least #1 going back to 1984.

There is just clear evidence Lebron ups his game to another level on average during this point, which is why the argument for Lebron is so enticing.

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E984343411850297344%7Ctwgr%5E470244aa2306bb254a29f4cd99be133c2de898e7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D2290454start%3D80

If Lebron is arguably a better PS offensive player by the data, then I don't see how Curry could make up the difference once defense is factored in as well. Shifting gears to a holistic view, the post don't factor in what many would consider Lebron's peak years, such as 09, 12, 13, the idea that Steph was ever truly as impactful as Lebron in terms of driving championship equity is a hard sell. And this is what people stress when focusing on impact. It is why Hakeem still gets thrusted above David Robinson.

“Curry was the most impactful regular season player across a five-or-six year sample” is an incoherent GOAT standard. Which again you both know.

Weird thing for you to say, given that in digging that post up you must surely have seen that I directly responded to it (in the post immediately thereafter no less). That then spawned a lengthy back-and-forth with LukaTheGOAT. I’m not going to spend my time repeating points I’ve already made at length, so I’ll just link to the page in that thread where that back-and-forth occurred, and invite anyone who is curious to read that post exchange and make up their own mind: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2365556&start=60

[Djoker]

Weird thing for you to say, given that in digging that post up you must surely have seen that I directly responded to it (in the post immediately thereafter no less). That then spawned a lengthy back-and-forth with LukaTheGOAT. I’m not going to spend my time repeating points I’ve already made at length, so I’ll just link to the page in that thread where that back-and-forth occurred, and invite anyone who is curious to read that post exchange and make up their own mind: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2365556&start=60

Yep.

I knew you had all the impact metrics on hand and I remember that Curry had a pretty large lead over Lebron. And even the PS ones you listed have Curry generally looking better although I'd be more cautious for the PS given smaller samples and Curry's box score declines are worrying. Although, on the flip side of the coin, Curry's playoff numbers in 2016 and 2018 are badly hurt by missing early round games and having tougher later round games more prominently represented.

And I also showed that Lebron's PS edge in team offense which is the crux of that LukaTheGOAT argument is standing on weak legs considering that Curry's teams performed better against 5+ SRS teams in the playoffs. Cavs boosted their numbers destroying cannon fodder in the Eastern Conference.

I just hate arguing with people who are doing so in bad faith. I'll never accuse someone of lying especially when they aren't or quote bits and pieces of their post while taking everything out of context. That's what repels me from threads like this. I actually thoroughly enjoy the debate aspect of it.

[parsnips33]

I'm actually more interested in seeing the 2015 Draymond > Steph argument now, that's new to me

[AEnigma]

Weird thing for you to say, given that in digging that post up you must surely have seen that I directly responded to it (in the post immediately thereafter no less). That then spawned a lengthy back-and-forth with LukaTheGOAT. I’m not going to spend my time repeating points I’ve already made at length, so I’ll just link to the page in that thread where that back-and-forth occurred, and invite anyone who is curious to read that post exchange and make up their own mind: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2365556&start=60

Yep.

I knew you had all the impact metrics on hand and I remember that Curry had a pretty large lead over Lebron. And even the PS ones you listed have Curry generally looking better although I'd be more cautious for the PS given smaller samples

They only “look better” when you shrink the samples.

and Curry's box score declines are worrying.

Are they? Why not just cite his “gravity”. Who cares about production declines when the team marches on regardless!

Although, on the flip side of the coin, Curry's playoff numbers in 2016 and 2018 are badly hurt by missing early round games and having tougher later round games more prominently represented.

Poor Curry, so disadvantaged by his team’s ability to make the conference finals without him.

And I also showed that Lebron's PS edge in team offense which is the crux of that LukaTheGOAT argument is standing on weak legs considering that Curry's teams performed better against 5+ SRS teams in the playoffs. Cavs boosted their numbers destroying cannon fodder in the Eastern Conference.

Yet again conflating team performance with individual performance whenever it becomes convenient.

I just hate arguing with people who are doing so in bad faith.

Suffocating in this irony.