Washington Wizards: what's your RealGM analysis?

[jfs1000d]

They never get opportunity to take a great player. John wall was very good, as was Brad Beal.

But they never get the superstar.


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[Rustyman]

Don’t know if you meant Spurs/Thunder or Jazz/Thunder. Spurs don’t have many assets, they only got lucky with Wemby.

Thunder method of facilitating trade is the key to stockpiling draft picks.

Wizards have been so bad for so long, I kind of root for them to do well and they are not far from my location so maybe I can catch a few games too if they get better.

I meant Spurs/Thunder as they have what the Jazz don't, namely a player to build around in Wemby and SGA respectively. The Jazz have nothing approaching that and no, Lauri does not fit their timeline or is that level of player.

The Spurs had luck with Wemby, the Thunder had luck with SGA. Every team in a rebuild needs luck however, you significantly increase your chances of being lucky by having more shots at the crown and no, non-lottery picks are have way less probability of working out and the Jazz have lots of those.

I like the Wizards and I hope they get Flagg in the next draft but even if they don't, they will end up in the top 5 and that player will probably be better than anyone they have on the roster.

[LakersSoul]

Don’t know if you meant Spurs/Thunder or Jazz/Thunder. Spurs don’t have many assets, they only got lucky with Wemby.

Thunder method of facilitating trade is the key to stockpiling draft picks.

Wizards have been so bad for so long, I kind of root for them to do well and they are not far from my location so maybe I can catch a few games too if they get better.

I meant Spurs/Thunder as they have what the Jazz don't, namely a player to build around in Wemby and SGA respectively. The Jazz have nothing approaching that and no, Lauri does not fit their timeline or is that level of player.

The Spurs had luck with Wemby, the Thunder had luck with SGA. Every team in a rebuild needs luck however, you significantly increase your chances of being lucky by having more shots at the crown and no, non-lottery picks are have way less probability of working out and the Jazz have lots of those.

I like the Wizards and I hope they get Flagg in the next draft but even if they don't, they will end up in the top 5 and that player will probably be better than anyone they have on the roster.

Spurs got lucky with lottery ball. Thunders asked for SGA plus all the Clippers picks for PGeorge. OKC planned everything and owns bagillion picks.

Jazz also own bazillion picks and Lauri is no SGA but they could get 3 picks for him easily.

As you don’t know who will be an all-star, you have to accumulated those draft picks and draft well.

[Rustyman]

Spurs got lucky with lottery ball. Thunders asked for SGA plus all the Clippers picks for PGeorge. OKC planned everything and owns bagillion picks.

Jazz also own bazillion picks and Lauri is no SGA but they could get 3 picks for him easily.

As you don’t know who will be an all-star, you have to accumulated those draft picks and draft well.

I agree you have to get as many lottery balls as possible to increase your chances however with the SGA trade, I don't think anyone who claims they knew then that SGA would be the player he is today at that time can be taken seriously. The Thunder obviously knew that SGA had talent, but no one knew he would turn into the player he is today or 10 players would not be taken before him in the draft.

The problem even with this strategy of collecting draft picks is that for them to be truly impactful, the draft picks have to be in the lottery as every study indicates that the vast majority of top players come from the top of the lottery. Now you have outliers but no one can predict these.

The Jazz may get 3-5 picks for Lauri however, how many will be in the lottery? The Knicks traded 5 picks for Bridges however how many of these will be in the lottery, maybe the 29 and 31 picks but the Knicks have a 3-4 year run at the title even taking into consideration injuries. For example, if Boston wanted to trade 5 picks for Lauri, I doubt the Jazz do that.

[doogie_hauser]

Think George is going to be a great player for them. Athletic wing that can be a solid 3&D shooter.

I forgot about George. He has potential. How did he do in summer league?

Im sure Wizards fans have debated this but, is Sheppard, George, and Deni better than Sarr, Bud, George, Brogdon, a future pick and a pick swap?

Yes. They would have been better with Sheppard and Deni.

The real rabbit hole to explore is whether or not the Portland #13 pick or the Sacramento #14 pick, or the Lakers #17 pick could have been available for Kuzma and the #26 pick. Bub Carlton would have been available at #14 and probably at #17.

The Wizards arguably could have had Sheppard, Bub and Deni instead of Sarr, Bub, George and Kuzma and a 2029 1st. That's 3 good starters a couple of years from now, plus Bilal and a 2025 high lotto pick (Flagg?). You can always find a half decent center in free agency.

I don't think any team would have given up a pick in the teens for Kuzma (even if you threw back in pick 26)

He is a conditional one way player on a horrible, grossly over paid contract.

As I said before, everyone is too down on Sarr, I think he will be a pleasant surprise for the Wiz next season.

Your management (at long last) i honestly feels like it knows what it is doing/planning.

They are shredding a lot of salary it seems (bar Albatross Kuzma and Poole) and seem to be trying to work with youth.

And you have most of your future picks in play.

Of course a lot of luck and wise decision making is involved, but I can honestly see a way out for the Wizards and the purgatory Hoops Hell Hole you have been in for decades, as long as management sticks to a youth empowerment move and not over pay for seasoned veteran scrubs

[CP3nthusiast]

Not so sure. Last few moves have been smart!

Not sure about Sarr but:

Traded picks and picked up Keyshawn George.
Traded Deni for Brogdan plus 2 FRPs and SRP.

Then pickup FAs:
Bey 3/20
Valanciunas 3/30

These looks to me some solid moves with good upside for the team.

Maybe one of their picks will hit and the future will start to look a bit rosier but I don't think Saddiq Bey and Jonas Valanciunas are game changers for any team in the league. Bey is on his third team in 4 years because he's a wing who can't shoot or defend and Valanciunas is an old-school bruising center who's on the wrong side of thirty and will prove to be an awful fit next to a non-spacing 5 who wants to play the 4 for some reason.

They had to sign someone and they got two decent vets on good contract to be traded or packaged down the road.

Saddiq Bey is not a decent vet.

[shi-woo]

I forgot about George. He has potential. How did he do in summer league?

Im sure Wizards fans have debated this but, is Sheppard, George, and Deni better than Sarr, Bud, George, Brogdon, a future pick and a pick swap?

Yes. They would have been better with Sheppard and Deni.

The real rabbit hole to explore is whether or not the Portland #13 pick or the Sacramento #14 pick, or the Lakers #17 pick could have been available for Kuzma and the #26 pick. Bub Carlton would have been available at #14 and probably at #17.

The Wizards arguably could have had Sheppard, Bub and Deni instead of Sarr, Bub, George and Kuzma and a 2029 1st. That's 3 good starters a couple of years from now, plus Bilal and a 2025 high lotto pick (Flagg?). You can always find a half decent center in free agency.

I don't think any team would have given up a pick in the teens for Kuzma (even if you threw back in pick 26)

He is a conditional one way player on a horrible, grossly over paid contract.

As I said before, everyone is too down on Sarr, I think he will be a pleasant surprise for the Wiz next season.

Your management (at long last) i honestly feels like it knows what it is doing/planning.

They are shredding a lot of salary it seems (bar Albatross Kuzma and Poole) and seem to be trying to work with youth.

And you have most of your future picks in play.

Of course a lot of luck and wise decision making is involved, but I can honestly see a way out for the Wizards and the purgatory Hoops Hell Hole you have been in for decades, as long as management sticks to a youth empowerment move and not over pay for seasoned veteran scrubs

You are being a little disingenuous to both Poole and Kuz. Both have proven to be able to play championship basketball, and that counts for something. Likewise, you are making their contracts seem a lot worse than they are. Kuzma's deal gets smaller every year, and will be 19 mil in 27. That's very reasonable considering he's better than a lot of other players around the league with a similar salary slot. Poole's is bad, but given they are about the start a long rebuild and someone has to get paid, it will be a nice contract to have in a year or two. You can't always sign max dudes, and you have to reach the salary floor. Poole's contract will be off the books right when you know what you have with your young squad, and what you need to build around it.

They are the worst team in the league, not the some team like the 2002 ORL Magic praying they had that max slot opened up. There is no worry about Poole's contract, more so how he will now effect Bub Carrington's development.

[TFJava]

Hot mess.

[GYK]

Directionless. “Promising” rookie scales and possibly in their primes scorers. It’s not a great situation to be in. Do you view the young players as current quality role players to support the scoring pair? If not why are giving their development shots/reads to other players?

[hauntedcomputer]

The only good move they've made in years is drafting and developing Deni on a great contract, and then they dumped him for the hope that one of the picks will turn out half as good. There's no hope here, ever.

[Dan Z]

Spurs got lucky with lottery ball. Thunders asked for SGA plus all the Clippers picks for PGeorge. OKC planned everything and owns bagillion picks.

Jazz also own bazillion picks and Lauri is no SGA but they could get 3 picks for him easily.

As you don’t know who will be an all-star, you have to accumulated those draft picks and draft well.

I agree you have to get as many lottery balls as possible to increase your chances however with the SGA trade, I don't think anyone who claims they knew then that SGA would be the player he is today at that time can be taken seriously. The Thunder obviously knew that SGA had talent, but no one knew he would turn into the player he is today or 10 players would not be taken before him in the draft.

The problem even with this strategy of collecting draft picks is that for them to be truly impactful, the draft picks have to be in the lottery as every study indicates that the vast majority of top players come from the top of the lottery. Now you have outliers but no one can predict these.

The Jazz may get 3-5 picks for Lauri however, how many will be in the lottery? The Knicks traded 5 picks for Bridges however how many of these will be in the lottery, maybe the 29 and 31 picks but the Knicks have a 3-4 year run at the title even taking into consideration injuries. For example, if Boston wanted to trade 5 picks for Lauri, I doubt the Jazz do that.

Picks, even late ones, are assets. They can be used in a trade for a player (for example, the Bridges trade you mention above), or to move up in a draft or to shed salary or for other picks/assets in the future.

The Jazz might not have picks that look like theyll be in the lottery (which is debatable), but when you combine them with their own picks then they have assets to work with.

My guess is that the Jazz are too good to get Flagg, but who knows. Im sure Atlanta was surprised to get the #1 pick this past draft.

Lottery luck in the next draft plus good development of their young players (Cody Williams, Taylor Hendricks, George, Collier, and Filipowski) and suddenly the future of the Jazz looks a lot different.

The Wizards don't have as many assets or young talent as the Jazz, but have a better chance at Flagg. If they get their franchise player in the 2025 draft that changes things (much like it did for the Spurs).

[Rustyman]

Picks, even late ones, are assets. They can be used in a trade for a player (for example, the Bridges trade you mention above), or to move up in a draft or to shed salary or for other picks/assets in the future.

The Jazz might not have picks that look like theyll be in the lottery (which is debatable), but when you combine them with their own picks then they have assets to work with.

My guess is that the Jazz are too good to get Flagg, but who knows. Im sure Atlanta was surprised to get the #1 pick this past draft.

Lottery luck in the next draft plus good development of their young players (Cody Williams, Taylor Hendricks, George, Collier, and Filipowski) and suddenly the future of the Jazz looks a lot different.

The Wizards don't have as many assets or young talent as the Jazz, but have a better chance at Flagg. If they get their franchise player in the 2025 draft that changes things (much like it did for the Spurs).

The draft as you mentioned is a crapshoot, however, all tanking does is give the teams with more losses, a greater chance of picking higher. Now for the Wizards, they better hope that their picks are in the top 3 in the 25/26 drafts or else they are going nowhere just like the Pistons who's tanking strategy to date has failed.

For the Jazz, they need some luck to get a franchise changing player like Flagg is projected to be, however, I agree that even if they don't, they have the ability (and picks) to get to be a regular 6-10 ranked team in the West. My question however is if that is enough to satisfy the Jazz fans.

[Dan Z]

Picks, even late ones, are assets. They can be used in a trade for a player (for example, the Bridges trade you mention above), or to move up in a draft or to shed salary or for other picks/assets in the future.

The Jazz might not have picks that look like theyll be in the lottery (which is debatable), but when you combine them with their own picks then they have assets to work with.

My guess is that the Jazz are too good to get Flagg, but who knows. Im sure Atlanta was surprised to get the #1 pick this past draft.

Lottery luck in the next draft plus good development of their young players (Cody Williams, Taylor Hendricks, George, Collier, and Filipowski) and suddenly the future of the Jazz looks a lot different.

The Wizards don't have as many assets or young talent as the Jazz, but have a better chance at Flagg. If they get their franchise player in the 2025 draft that changes things (much like it did for the Spurs).

The draft as you mentioned is a crapshoot, however, all tanking does is give the teams with more losses, a greater chance of picking higher. Now for the Wizards, they better hope that their picks are in the top 3 in the 25/26 drafts or else they are going nowhere just like the Pistons who's tanking strategy to date has failed.

For the Jazz, they need some luck to get a franchise changing player like Flagg is projected to be, however, I agree that even if they don't, they have the ability (and picks) to get to be a regular 6-10 ranked team in the West. My question however is if that is enough to satisfy the Jazz fans.

There's also an outside chance that either team can get lucky with a late pick or move. The Jazz drafted Mitchell at #13 and traded the 46th pick and cash for Gobert.

It's not something you can rely on, but it's a possibility. I think that having as many chances as possible (at finding good, young talent) is the way to go. Once you find a franchise player then you can move in a different direction.

[Rustyman]

There's also an outside chance that either team can get lucky with a late pick or move. The Jazz drafted Mitchell at #13 and traded the 46th pick and cash for Gobert.

It's not something you can rely on, but it's a possibility. I think that having as many chances as possible (at finding good, young talent) is the way to go. Once you find a franchise player then you can move in a different direction.

This is the problem, I think less than half the teams in the NBA have someone you can call a franchise player. We have some pretend franchise players on non-competing teams however I believe if they had a real franchise player, they would be competing for the top 6 spots, other team building issues notwithstanding.

[Dan Z]

There's also an outside chance that either team can get lucky with a late pick or move. The Jazz drafted Mitchell at #13 and traded the 46th pick and cash for Gobert.

It's not something you can rely on, but it's a possibility. I think that having as many chances as possible (at finding good, young talent) is the way to go. Once you find a franchise player then you can move in a different direction.

This is the problem, I think less than half the teams in the NBA have someone you can call a franchise player. We have some pretend franchise players on non-competing teams however I believe if they had a real franchise player, they would be competing for the top 6 spots, other team building issues notwithstanding.

It depends on your definition of a franchise player

Do the Magic have a franchise player? Maybe not, but Banchero is good and improving. Plus, they have other young players that are good (Wagner, Suggs, etc). They're a team that should continue trying to compete because they'll improve.

What about The Kings? Do Fox and Sabonis count? The Kings were bad for so long that they should continue trying to compete.

Or the Rockets? They don't have a Banchero level player, but have a few players that might develop to be quite good. They also don't have control of their own picks the next two years.

If a team doesnt have a star or a young core (with potential) then it makes sense to keep trying to get that. It doesn't make sense to get stuck as an 9-11th place team (I'm a Bulls fan so I know all about that...sigh). The Jazz could easily fall into this, but it seems like Ainge knows that.

The Wizards will probably be the worst team in the league next year, so they need all the help they can get. It'll take time.

[Rustyman]

It depends on your definition of a franchise player

Do the Magic have a franchise player? Maybe not, but Banchero is good and improving. Plus, they have other young players that are good (Wagner, Suggs, etc). They're a team that should continue trying to compete because they'll improve.

What about The Kings? Do Fox and Sabonis count? The Kings were bad for so long that they should continue trying to compete.

Or the Rockets? They don't have a Banchero level player, but have a few players that might develop to be quite good. They also don't have control of their own picks the next two years.

If a team doesnt have a star or a young core (with potential) then it makes sense to keep trying to get that. It doesn't make sense to get stuck as an 9-11th place team (I'm a Bulls fan so I know all about that...sigh). The Jazz could easily fall into this, but it seems like Ainge knows that.

The Wizards will probably be the worst team in the league next year, so they need all the help they can get. It'll take time.

I will go through these one by one but before I do so, I would like to say that a team does not need a franchise player to win a title if they have a roster that is stacked. Historically look at the Pistons or even last year's Boston, who is the franchise player there? For me a franchise player is measured by impact, not simply points scored. A franchise player is someone who the team is built around:

1. Magic. I think Paolo is the franchise player in waiting, another year like last year and he is anointed.

2. Rockets. I think they have to consolidate their talent. Their franchise player might be on their roster, but hasn't manifested themselves yet. Or it may be that the Rockets become like the Celtics and just have lots of very good players on their roster.

3. Kings. Another collection of good players but I don't regard either Fox or Sabonis as a franchise player and I like the Kings. The Kings like some other teams are only every going to be able to draft a franchise player as no franchise quality player is going there unless it is at the end or their careers.

4. The Bulls to me is a perfect example of a team that a combination of bad luck and bad management are caught in a mediocre spiral. The need to choose to build with youth with White/Giddey/Ayo/Willams and get rid of everything else and try a youth movement for 2-3 years.

[Dan Z]

It depends on your definition of a franchise player

Do the Magic have a franchise player? Maybe not, but Banchero is good and improving. Plus, they have other young players that are good (Wagner, Suggs, etc). They're a team that should continue trying to compete because they'll improve.

What about The Kings? Do Fox and Sabonis count? The Kings were bad for so long that they should continue trying to compete.

Or the Rockets? They don't have a Banchero level player, but have a few players that might develop to be quite good. They also don't have control of their own picks the next two years.

If a team doesnt have a star or a young core (with potential) then it makes sense to keep trying to get that. It doesn't make sense to get stuck as an 9-11th place team (I'm a Bulls fan so I know all about that...sigh). The Jazz could easily fall into this, but it seems like Ainge knows that.

The Wizards will probably be the worst team in the league next year, so they need all the help they can get. It'll take time.

I will go through these one by one but before I do so, I would like to say that a team does not need a franchise player to win a title if they have a roster that is stacked. Historically look at the Pistons or even last year's Boston, who is the franchise player there? For me a franchise player is measured by impact, not simply points scored. A franchise player is someone who the team is built around:

1. Magic. I think Paolo is the franchise player in waiting, another year like last year and he is anointed.

2. Rockets. I think they have to consolidate their talent. Their franchise player might be on their roster, but hasn't manifested themselves yet. Or it may be that the Rockets become like the Celtics and just have lots of very good players on their roster.

3. Kings. Another collection of good players but I don't regard either Fox or Sabonis as a franchise player and I like the Kings. The Kings like some other teams are only every going to be able to draft a franchise player as no franchise quality player is going there unless it is at the end or their careers.

4. The Bulls to me is a perfect example of a team that a combination of bad luck and bad management are caught in a mediocre spiral. The need to choose to build with youth with White/Giddey/Ayo/Willams and get rid of everything else and try a youth movement for 2-3 years.

The Pistons are a rarity when it comes to championship teams. As for Boston I think Tatum is a franchise player. 26 years old, 5 time all-star, averaged 26 points per game last year and was 6th in MVP voting. The previous year he averaged 30 points per game. Boston is also fortunate that they have a good team overall.

One issue with the Rockets is that they don't control their own picks for the next two years, so they might as well be as competitive as they can be. Maybe one or two of their young players step up? If not, they have a good collection of players and, as you point out, could make a trade (if one becomes available).

The Kings don't really have a choice but to continue with what they have at the moment. They're competitive, but not a championship team, but because they've lost for so many years that's a big improvement. Plus, they're not an old team so they can continue to grow.

The Bulls...I agree with you. Fortunately management didn't have much of a choice this off season but to move in a direction with more youth on the team. Hopefully it means they also keep their 2025 pick (it's owed to the Spurs, but protected 1-10).

[Rustyman]

Only quibble I have on the Celtics is that Jaylen Brown was their best player throughout the playoffs, not only the finals. I guess I expect more out of a franchise player if Tatum is to have that role.

[JujitsuFlip]

At least they're currently sitting in 8th place in the East.

[Jamaaliver]

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