FREE AGENCY 2024

[Wizenheimer]

We were also the 4th youngest team last year, so you can expect some significant improvement from most of those guys seeing as were developing the majority of them..

OKC and Orlando were younger and both were playoff teams. The Spurs were younger too, had a better team, and have a big leg up on the Blazers with Wemby

sometimes, being a year older doesn't mean a year better

[dckingsfan]

We were also the 4th youngest team last year, so you can expect some significant improvement from most of those guys seeing as were developing the majority of them..

OKC and Orlando were younger and both were playoff teams. The Spurs were younger too, had a better team, and have a big leg up on the Blazers with Wemby

sometimes, being a year older doesn't mean a year better

Aren't both statements true?

You play the hand you are dealt. This is a young team, you develop the youngsters and assume/hope they develop into sold assets.

And yes, other teams have done/are doing that better. But you still have to go down the path. Fully half of the team is 24&U and you want a couple to breakout over the next few seasons. That and have good drafts to do more of the same?

[Wizenheimer]

We were also the 4th youngest team last year, so you can expect some significant improvement from most of those guys seeing as were developing the majority of them..

OKC and Orlando were younger and both were playoff teams. The Spurs were younger too, had a better team, and have a big leg up on the Blazers with Wemby

sometimes, being a year older doesn't mean a year better

Aren't both statements true?

You play the hand you are dealt. This is a young team, you develop the youngsters and assume/hope they develop into sold assets.

And yes, other teams have done/are doing that better. But you still have to go down the path. Fully half of the team is 24&U and you want a couple to breakout over the next few seasons. That and have good drafts to do more of the same?

well, it's not like the hands Portland have been, and will be, dealt are completely out of their control. It's also not like Portland's minutes distribution will all be going to all those 24 and younger guys: by mid-season Grant is 30, Reath 28, Thybulle & Timelord 27, Ayton 26, Ant 25

mainly I was pushing back against the notion that a young average roster = plenty of upside. I actually want Portland to get younger and organically tank by trading away most of those veterans, especially Grant, Simons, & Timelord

[Walton1one]

Again, the point I was making is that they keep taking the same type of player, and for a team that is AWFUL at shooting, you think they might want to be taking some flyers on some proven shooters, rather than keep trying to force a square peg into a round hole.

Even at the periphery of roster mgmt, signing McGowans & Minaya to 2-way deals, Cui\Drell to Exhibit 10 deals, when they could have invested with their own 2nd round picks into proven shooters is just shortsighted\lazy\cheap?

Pelle Larsson, taken at #44, looked good for MIA in summer league. shot 51.9% , 42.6% from 3pt
Cam Christie, taken at #46, shot 39.1% from 3pt
Antonio Reeves, taken at #47, shot 51.2% & 44.7% from 3pt
Anton Watson, taken at #54, shot 57.8%, 41.2% from 3pt

Yes, this team is young, and we hope that some (one?) of them get better at shooting, but when even your "vets" are shooting under the league average for FG%, that is not good. I can expect that with a young player, but a veteran player?

BTW, Murray (24), Camara (24), Banton (24) are not what I would call super young players either. At those ages you expect them to come in and adapt\perform much quicker than a 19/20yr kid. I mean these guys are only a year or so younger than Simons.

Also, I am not saying that Ant\Grant are bad shooters, because they are not & their 3pt FG% which is above league average, reflects that, however their usage is clearly dragging down their FG%, which means they are being forced into roles that they are probably not suited for\most efficient at were they on a better team, which this team is not going to be any time soon. In short, not good enough to be the leading players on this team, and both at an age (Grant) & point in their career (Ant) which begs the question, why are they still here?

Get busy getting better or get busy getting worse. Cronin needs to stop straddling the line.

[Walton1one]

I actually want Portland to get younger and organically tank by trading away most of those veterans, especially Grant, Simons, & Timelord

YES! 100 times yes, you can still tank, but also develop & see what you actually have in your young players, which with contract extensions (Sharpe) and a loaded 2025 draft (Scoot) coming up, would seem to be the most prudent thing to do.

[PDXKnight]

I actually want Portland to get younger and organically tank by trading away most of those veterans, especially Grant, Simons, & Timelord

YES! 100 times yes, you can still tank, but also develop & see what you actually have in your young players, which with contract extensions (Sharpe) and a loaded 2025 draft (Scoot) coming up, would seem to be the most prudent thing to do.

I'm glad we have 1 more year of sharpe before we pay him potentially a max extension. Feels like we can't let him go but 1 more season hopefully without Ant will tell us whether he can put it together more than he has

[zzaj]

I actually want Portland to get younger and organically tank by trading away most of those veterans, especially Grant, Simons, & Timelord

YES! 100 times yes, you can still tank, but also develop & see what you actually have in your young players, which with contract extensions (Sharpe) and a loaded 2025 draft (Scoot) coming up, would seem to be the most prudent thing to do.

I'm glad we have 1 more year of sharpe before we pay him potentially a max extension. Feels like we can't let him go but 1 more season hopefully without Ant will tell us whether he can put it together more than he has

I think there is basically zero chance Sharpe will deserve a max extension...which isn't to say Cronin won't give him one.

Sharpe would have to look like an all-nba player in order to justify that. I'm talking 25/5/5 with very good defense, and improved 3pt%...

[PDXKnight]

YES! 100 times yes, you can still tank, but also develop & see what you actually have in your young players, which with contract extensions (Sharpe) and a loaded 2025 draft (Scoot) coming up, would seem to be the most prudent thing to do.

I'm glad we have 1 more year of sharpe before we pay him potentially a max extension. Feels like we can't let him go but 1 more season hopefully without Ant will tell us whether he can put it together more than he has

I think there is basically zero chance Sharpe will deserve a max extension...which isn't to say Cronin won't give him one.

Sharpe would have to look like an all-nba player in order to justify that. I'm talking 25/5/5 with very good defense, and improved 3pt%...

Whether right or wrong if sharpe shows any improvement even in the 18 ppg/3apg/4 Reb range it's likely we either have to pay or lose him in free agency imo. Coming off a rookie contract and being young I'd contend it's better to pay him if the alternative is losing him. I firmly believe that offer will come from someone and he's currently one of the few worthwhile pieces on this roster so I'd gladly give him the rookie max even though at the surface it's an overpay. If you believe he has a chance to be an all star you pay it without blinking. And while I'm not sure how he pans out he certainly has the raw skill and looks like a starter in this league bare minimum with hopefully more upside than simply starting

EDIT: I suppose we could also wait till he becomes a rfa. Either way I'm pretty sure the end result will be the same

[JasonStern]

I will never get the Ayton and Simons hate on this board. Sure, Ayton is overpaid. And Simons is CJ 2.0 - undersized SG that can play PG just not well. Or maybe an undersized Jamal Crawford is a better comparison. But neither have entered their primes. While inefficient for stretches and high usage players, both are productive. Trading either, even for some protected pick, would require taking back effectively dead salary. And then you're praying that the protected 1st actually is delivered (poor Chicago) and that it amounts to a player as good as Simons or Ayton. And, despite what everyone claims with random stats, our best back court last year was Brogdon and Simons.

Now Grant, Timelord, and Thybulle, while all players I like, make zero sense being on this roster. Grant is Crash 2.0 - relies too heavily on his athleticism which is at the point of decline while also being overpaid on a bad team. Timeloard and Thybulle just seem incredibly redundant with the Clangton and Deni acquisitions. Timelord is giving off massive Ezili vibes. None have the value Blazer fans expect. But I don't see the value added to the Blazers either.

[tester551]

YES! 100 times yes, you can still tank, but also develop & see what you actually have in your young players, which with contract extensions (Sharpe) and a loaded 2025 draft (Scoot) coming up, would seem to be the most prudent thing to do.

I'm glad we have 1 more year of sharpe before we pay him potentially a max extension. Feels like we can't let him go but 1 more season hopefully without Ant will tell us whether he can put it together more than he has

I think there is basically zero chance Sharpe will deserve a max extension...which isn't to say Cronin won't give him one.

Sharpe would have to look like an all-nba player in order to justify that. I'm talking 25/5/5 with very good defense, and improved 3pt%...

Yeah... There no way I extend his contract at the end of the season.
I would force him to play out his rookie deal & enter RFA

[Wizenheimer]

I will never get the Ayton and Simons hate on this board. Sure, Ayton is overpaid. And Simons is CJ 2.0 - undersized SG that can play PG just not well. Or maybe an undersized Jamal Crawford is a better comparison. But neither have entered their primes. While inefficient for stretches and high usage players, both are productive. Trading either, even for some protected pick, would require taking back effectively dead salary. And then you're praying that the protected 1st actually is delivered (poor Chicago) and that it amounts to a player as good as Simons or Ayton.

that is not correct.

What you'd be hoping is that the pick(s) would deliver players much much better that Ayton and Simons; elite players. You have to maximize the number of rolls of dice in the drafts; some rolls will come up snake-eyes, but two or three could come up hard-eight and be the payoff for all the rolls that crap out. Simons-Ayton-Grant....these kinds of players only have purgatory talent, at best. They can't elevate a lottery team into the playoffs; and they can't elevate a playoff team into contention.

They simply suck up opportunity, minutes, and salary. They are supporting player talent, at best, and they are all flawed. It's mismanagement at it's worst to foolishly to invest in players like these, year after year, before having actual core talent in place. You can't even know if they'd be complementary talent until the core is built

the Pelicans have discovered that after 2.5 years of CJ

And, despite what everyone claims with random stats, our best back court last year was Brogdon and Simons.

and the worst was Simons + Scoot; by a lot. And the year before the worst was Simons + Sharpe; by a lot. That's shown by 2 man lineup stats

in fact, going by those stats in Dame's last season as a Blazer, the back court rankings by points/100-possessions:

D. Lillard | S. Sharpe +5.7
D. Lillard | A. Simons -0.4
S. Sharpe | A. Simons -7.9

last season:

S. Henderson | M. Thybulle -7.1
A. Simons | M. Thybulle -8.4
S. Henderson | A. Simons -20.4

Simons doesn't make teammates better; in many cases like Scoot and Sharpe, he makes them worse

by the way Simons + Grant were -12.3. They pretty much sucked when they were on the floor together, probably because they both turned into dribble-happy ball hogs seeing each other out there

Now Grant, Timelord, and Thybulle, while all players I like, make zero sense being on this roster.

you're getting there and 60% right. Add Simons and Ayton to get to 100%; shop that quintet of expensive purgatory veterans and dump em all

[DaVoiceMaster]

Wiz for President. He is spot on!!!

[Walton1one]

Yes, good post,

Simons & Grant are good players, but not good enough to lead a team to anything meaningful. No guarantee that Scoot\Sharpe\Avdija are either, but they are all younger\have time to reach their potential and you hope that that one of them can develop into such a player, or if not POR finds that player in 2025/2026.

[Wizenheimer]

Yes, good post,

Simons & Grant are good players, but not good enough to lead a team to anything meaningful. No guarantee that Scoot\Sharpe\Avdija are either, but they are all younger\have time to reach their potential and you hope that that one of them can develop into such a player, or if not POR finds that player in 2025/2026.

I'm a little skeptical Avdija can develop into an elite player. The coming season will be his 5th and he'll turn 24 in January. That may be too far down the NBA trail to allow for big jumps up the ladder. He did have an impressive season last year. He averaged 15-7-4 and had big jumps in production and efficiency across the board. But he did so on a terrible team when winning wasn't a goal. That always makes the numbers a little suspect. I'm thinking his ceiling may be an integral glue-guy who has all-star level talent without ever getting to the game. I hope it's higher

Scoot? he certainly has a lot of room to grow and he did flash his potential, at times, toward the end of the season. But most of the time, he was really bad and looked 2 years away from being 1 year away. A PG with a 1.6 assist/turnover ratio is failing. His shooting was bad but his 82% FT shooting was encouraging. His 2nd season is his no-excuses season. He really needs to clean a lot of things up to have a shot at ascending to an elite player by his prime

Sharpe is an enigma. He certainly has flashed some elite talent a few times. But he never really delivers enough reality. Injuries haven't helped. My biggest worry with Sharpe is that he may bot be an alpha. Without those alpha genes, players don't become elite

one of Scoot or Shape will be behind Simons and be riding the bench. I know Simons fans say that doesn't matter, but I think it does

and yes, I agree that the Blazers very likely need at least a couple more top-5 draft picks. Their best path forward is to organically tank after dumping all the expensive veterans

[soobias]

What you'd be hoping is that the pick(s) would deliver players much much better that Ayton and Simons; elite players. You have to maximize the number of rolls of dice in the drafts; some rolls will come up snake-eyes, but two or three could come up hard-eight and be the payoff for all the rolls that crap out. Simons-Ayton-Grant....these kinds of players only have purgatory talent, at best. They can't elevate a lottery team into the playoffs; and they can't elevate a playoff team into contention.

They simply suck up opportunity, minutes, and salary. They are supporting player talent, at best, and they are all flawed. It's mismanagement at it's worst to foolishly to invest in players like these, year after year, before having actual core talent in place. You can't even know if they'd be complementary talent until the core is built

the Pelicans have discovered that after 2.5 years of CJ



+1000

[Norm2953]

Here's hoping SS plays in 75 games and develops into an quality NBA starter. Wiz is correct he's not an
alpha but this is the season where he can put up the numbers to earn an extension on his contract. He's
got to take the job from Simons to get that contract for neither SS or Simons is a full time PG.

Those guys like Grant/Simons are not difference makers but are hardly replacement level players. If Grant
ends up in LA, he'll do fine as the third option

[zzaj]

Yes, good post,

Simons & Grant are good players, but not good enough to lead a team to anything meaningful. No guarantee that Scoot\Sharpe\Avdija are either, but they are all younger\have time to reach their potential and you hope that that one of them can develop into such a player, or if not POR finds that player in 2025/2026.

I'm a little skeptical Avdija can develop into an elite player. The coming season will be his 5th and he'll turn 24 in January. That may be too far down the NBA trail to allow for big jumps up the ladder. He did have an impressive season last year. He averaged 15-7-4 and had big jumps in production and efficiency across the board. But he did so on a terrible team when winning wasn't a goal. That always makes the numbers a little suspect. I'm thinking his ceiling may be an integral glue-guy who has all-star level talent without ever getting to the game. I hope it's higher

Scoot? he certainly has a lot of room to grow and he did flash his potential, at times, toward the end of the season. But most of the time, he was really bad and looked 2 years away from being 1 year away. A PG with a 1.6 assist/turnover ratio is failing. His shooting was bad but his 82% FT shooting was encouraging. His 2nd season is his no-excuses season. He really needs to clean a lot of things up to have a shot at ascending to an elite player by his prime

Sharpe is an enigma. He certainly has flashed some elite talent a few times. But he never really delivers enough reality. Injuries haven't helped. My biggest worry with Sharpe is that he may bot be an alpha. Without those alpha genes, players don't become elite

one of Scoot or Shape will be behind Simons and be riding the bench. I know Simons fans say that doesn't matter, but I think it does

and yes, I agree that the Blazers very likely need at least a couple more top-5 draft picks. Their best path forward is to organically tank after dumping all the expensive veterans

I'm also a bit of a skeptic on Deni, but I do believe that he can be exactly what you mentioned--a super useful glue-guy.

A big issue I see, is that Deni suddenly thrived (apparently, if you go by the Bullets fans' opinions) when he was able to have the ball in his hands. I'm not sure given the coaching, system and roster the Blazers have in place that Deni is going to even get the chance to become elite.

The Blazers roster is currently very poorly constructed with Scoot, Ant, Sharpe, Grant, Ayton and now Deni, who all need the ball in their hands to be their most effective selves. Sharpe can exist without the ball as a cutter and play finisher, but that's not why the Blazers drafted him--they drafted him for his ceiling as an Alpha scorer with the ball in his hands.

I think that Deni will certainly help Scoot as a secondary facilitator--something this team desperately needs, but again--how Ant, Sharpe, Grant and Ayton respond to that facilitation is going to affect Deni's outcomes. Certainly system will have a massive impact on it as well...

All that to be said, I still think given his contract it was a good trade. I'm a bit worried about his resigning when that bridge needs to be crossed. That is really the only advantage I see for keeping the 14th pick in this year's draft and getting someone like DaSilva.

[Walton1one]

I agree that neither Avdija\Sharpe or Scoot are good bets to be a "star" level player let alone a key rotation player\starter to a playoff caliber team. The hope is that all 3 develop into the former or the latter (more likely). But given their age 23/21/20 & talent, all 3 have the best opportunity (at least right now) to become those types of players.

We all have a pretty good idea of the type of players Ant\Grant\Thybulle and even Ayton\Williams are. I am not convinced there is room with any of those players to transcend beyond what they already are

[Tim Lehrbach]

I don't believe the point of having Deni is elite potential. Rather, he's a $25-30 million player making half that, and the price was right. He'll either be an awesome complement to emerging stars or, if there are none in three years, be flipped for more than Portland paid. He represents an opportunity the Blazers couldn't refuse.

[PDXKnight]

I agree that neither Avdija\Sharpe or Scoot are good bets to be a "star" level player let alone a key rotation player\starter to a playoff caliber team. The hope is that all 3 develop into the former or the latter (more likely). But given their age 23/21/20 & talent, all 3 have the best opportunity (at least right now) to become those types of players.

We all have a pretty good idea of the type of players Ant\Grant\Thybulle and even Ayton\Williams are. I am not convinced there is room with any of those players to transcend beyond what they already are

I guess I'll disagree on Deni not being a starter on a title team (or a 6th man). Yeah he likely wouldn't be a number 1 option on any team except for a really bad one of course but he is a multi faceted player who could easily be a tayshaun prince/ Nic Batum sort of starter on a contender