LukaTheGOAT wrote:Stephen Curry is closer to Chris Paul all-time than he is to LeBron James.
If those who are heavily focused on numbers take a deep look, they'll find that many of the same metrics used to argue Curry had the greatest peak or the greatest 5-year stretch often show Chris Paul having a more valuable career. These metrics also make a strong case for CP3 having a better 3- or 5-year stretch in the playoffs as well.
It’s harder for some to give CP3 the same credit—perhaps due to team success, size, or other reasons—but from a strictly numbers standpoint, Curry is not in another tier.
CP3 ranks higher in the regular season in:
Career VORP
Career Win Shares
Curry gains ground in playoff value due to playing more games. However, on a per-possession or per-minute basis, CP3 is actually ahead, which is why CP3's:
Playoff BPM
Playoff WS/48
are greater than Curry’s.
The debate then comes down to how you balance Curry's larger sample size against CP3’s arguably better performance on a per-possession basis.
Before dismissing the use of pure box score numbers, it's worth noting that they are easy to access and provide a quick analysis. Still, the same trends appear when you look at more advanced metrics like PIPM, RAPTOR, Backpicks BPM (converted into a VORP format), and others.
Some quick examples of the prime/peak play I am talking about:
PIPM from 2009-2019:
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Or
You are presented two players: Player A and B in the PS
Player A
PS On/Off-8.6
3-year playoff PlayVal peak-1.3
3-year Backpicks BPM Peak of 6.9
3-year AuPM/g Peak-5.7
3-year Peak LEBRON-6.89
Player B
PS On/Off-14.7
3-year playoff PlayVal Peak-2
3- year Backpicks BPM Peak of 7.4
3-year AuPM/g Peak-5.2
3-year Peak LEBRON-7.40
Here’s the kicker: Player A is Curry and Player B is Paul. Now, I’m not saying Paul had a better peak than Curry, but it’s interesting to note that, statistically, he compares favorably in playoff performance. While Curry made deeper playoff runs, Paul actually faced tougher playoff defenses from 2012-2016 than Curry ever did
https://diamondhoop5.wordpress.com/2021/07/12/playoff-defenses-faced-update/. Not only did CP3 not get to boost his numbers against weaker defenses, but he still performed at an elite level, demonstrating the quality of an all-time great who consistently faced strong opponents.
Paul’s team offenses were excellent, posting a playoff offensive relative efficiency of +5.7 from 2013-2017, with a three-year peak of +7.7 (2015-2017). For comparison, Curry’s Warriors during the Durant era (2017-2019) peaked at +7.5.
It’s not unreasonable to give Paul an edge over Curry when considering CP3's longer prime and how statistically impressive his playoff peak was. His longevity is notable. For instance, Paul has recorded seven postseason runs with an AuPM per game over +4 since 1997, second only to one player. Curry, by comparison, has six such runs. Keep in mind that a +4 AuPM is around what you’d expect from a top 5 player, so this reflects significant added value.
When looking at career RAPM values, CP3 often edges out Curry, despite being further removed from his prime, which is impressive since RAPM is a per-possession stat.
So, the question remains: Should we seriously consider Curry as a GOAT-tier candidate based on the numbers, when he hasn’t definitively separated himself from a contemporary at the same position?
