2024 WNBA Season Discussion Thread

[Ice Man]

don't crucify me

No worries, I think you are correct, both in your analysis of the Sky and of the league overall. That's where things are now. But I think they are rapidly changing.

I wish I could track down post-up statistics for the WNBA like with the NBA, because I'm convinced that have been the worst option in the Fever's playbook. But since I can't, that's just my opinion and I can't prove the assertion.

[DOT]

So I feel like the Sun's last 2 games were the high and the low

First game back from break, beating Dallas 109-91, first time cracking 100 points since June 15th 2022, most points since June 1st 2018, then the next game an abysmal 82-70 loss. Went from everyone clicking to nobody clicking

Take some time to gel I guess, but if we get that first version of Marina Mabrey in the playoffs, we might beat the Liberty at least twice instead of just once.

[Ghetto Gospel]

don't crucify me

No worries, I think you are correct, both in your analysis of the Sky and of the league overall. That's where things are now. But I think they are rapidly changing.

I wish I could track down post-up statistics for the WNBA like with the NBA, because I'm convinced that have been the worst option in the Fever's playbook. But since I can't, that's just my opinion and I can't prove the assertion.

you're probably not wrong with regards to fever post-ups.

however, they do need a secondary and tertiary options outside of caitlin though. she plays the 2nd most minutes per game in the W and she's running around a lot so she needs a few plays here and there where she can just hang out and get a little bit of rest. even if it's not the most efficient play in a vacuum, over the course of a full game or season, it could lead to a more efficient offense versus having a fatigued caitlin doing stuff at the end of the game or a worn-down one as the playoffs approach

[wojoaderge]

Looks like i'll eventually be watching a lot more Three Stooges

[MrDollarBills]

So I feel like the Sun's last 2 games were the high and the low

First game back from break, beating Dallas 109-91, first time cracking 100 points since June 15th 2022, most points since June 1st 2018, then the next game an abysmal 82-70 loss. Went from everyone clicking to nobody clicking

Take some time to gel I guess, but if we get that first version of Marina Mabrey in the playoffs, we might beat the Liberty at least twice instead of just once.

I like your optimistic outlook

[MrDollarBills]

don't crucify me

No worries, I think you are correct, both in your analysis of the Sky and of the league overall. That's where things are now. But I think they are rapidly changing.

I wish I could track down post-up statistics for the WNBA like with the NBA, because I'm convinced that have been the worst option in the Fever's playbook. But since I can't, that's just my opinion and I can't prove the assertion.

Aren't post ups viewed as inefficient shots analytics wise?

[MrDollarBills]

Gabbie Williams signed with Seattle

Looks like the Fever really pissed the Storm off.

[Ice Man]

Aren't post ups viewed as inefficient shots analytics wise?

Very much so in the NBA. I haven't seen any studies of the WNBA, though.

[Ghetto Gospel]

don't crucify me

No worries, I think you are correct, both in your analysis of the Sky and of the league overall. That's where things are now. But I think they are rapidly changing.

I wish I could track down post-up statistics for the WNBA like with the NBA, because I'm convinced that have been the worst option in the Fever's playbook. But since I can't, that's just my opinion and I can't prove the assertion.

Aren't post ups viewed as inefficient shots analytics wise?

yes but caveat is it depends on who's posting up so not too dissimilar to players shooting mid-range jumpers.

the issue is when defense clamps down and is playing well, it's hard to get the good efficient shots like layups and 3s, so sometimes you gotta "settle" for the mid-range or the post-up. you take the best that you can get basically

[Doctor MJ]

Aren't post ups viewed as inefficient shots analytics wise?

Very much so in the NBA. I haven't seen any studies of the WNBA, though.

So in general I've enjoyed the progression of this topic with you two and GG. My impression of things:

- Post-up do seem to be more efficient relatively in the WNBA compared to the NBA based on the volume & efficiency we've continued to see from players known for posting - Sylvia Fowles was a lock for well over 60% TS until the day she retired.

- But I think we've still generally see evidence that perimeter-led attacks are better for elite offense than interior-led attacks, and I'd note that this parallels the NBA prior to the modern era. Even before the shooting efficiency of post-ups fell off, the effectiveness of relying upon them as the focal point of your offense generally didn't work. There were of course players who were extremely effective leading teams in that role, but perimeter-led offenses have mostly been the dominant force ever since they widened the key to slow down Mikan.

- To elaborate on what I see as the fundamental problem with looking at shooting efficiency as the way to judge volume post-ups: The post-up scorer typically needs the ball delivered to them in a narrow band of places for them to go to work, and the defense knows this. So the defense can focus not just on defending the player once they get the ball, but in keeping the player from getting the ball when they are in their preferred position.

- Circling back to the WNBA being in the era where post-offense looks efficient by common metrics: I'd say so long as this remains the case, you're going to have folks who cling to more of an old-school paradigm. I'd say, for example, that the "death" of the post-up in the NBA accelerated not so much when it stopped being a wise approach, but when it become so much worse of an approach that it lost the superficial statistical advantage it had previously had.

- And it's possible this will never be the case in the WNBA. I'm not going to claim a definitive statement here, but I think that shotblocking in general is something that becomes a bigger deal in basketball with height, and we haven't actually seen the WNBA get dramatically taller in the past 25 years. If we go look at the highest season BPG seasons it's utterly dominated by two woman (Margo Dydek & Brittney Griner) who to this day remain utter outliers in a sport where 6'4" makes you a "big".

- That said, I don't see the trend toward 3-point shooting hitting a wall soon in the WNBA, and the Clark phenomenon will accelerate matters. In the end if shooters become adept enough from outside, 3>2.

[Doctor MJ]

the issue is when defense clamps down and is playing well, it's hard to get the good efficient shots like layups and 3s, so sometimes you gotta "settle" for the mid-range or the post-up. you take the best that you can get basically

I don't actually think you get to settle for post-ups in the typical case. You have to work to feed the post-up artist, and against crunch time defense that's harder and harder, which is why clutch scoring is basically always dominated by those who can operate on the perimeter.

But yeah, the mid-range is absolutely where settling happens. You want to be able to hit those shots, but if you're taking them, the defense has already won a major battle.

[Ice Man]

Excellent points, Doctor MJ. If I had taken the time to sort out my thoughts and write a longish message on what I meant by the trend away from post scoring, that is pretty much what I would have come up with. But not instantly, as you make some points that I had not really considered.

I'm optimistic that between the Liberty and Fever (at the least, there probably are more teams, as I am only now learning the league), which are scoring buckets by playing a modern-style NBA offense of spread, move, cut, and share, that WNBA ball will increasingly value quicks/smarts/skills/defensive versatility, and will have less emphasis on overwhelming opponents inside. All of which of course is not to say that #5s and #4s will become extinct, any more than in the NBA. But more mobility and playmaking from those bigs, as well as being able to switch defensively.

[MrDollarBills]

Excellent points, Doctor MJ. If I had taken the time to sort out my thoughts and write a longish message on what I meant by the trend away from post scoring, that is pretty much what I would have come up with. But not instantly, as you make some points that I had not really considered.

I'm optimistic that between the Liberty and Fever (at the least, there probably are more teams, as I am only now learning the league), which are scoring buckets by playing a modern-style NBA offense of spread, move, cut, and share, that WNBA ball will increasingly value quicks/smarts/skills/defensive versatility, and will have less emphasis on overwhelming opponents inside. All of which of course is not to say that #5s and #4s will become extinct, any more than in the NBA. But more mobility and playmaking from those bigs, as well as being able to switch defensively.

Bigs in the WNBA are gonna trend towards being able to play inside and out like Jonquel Jones and Stef Dolson, I predict. You want your 5s be able to space on offense as well as score down low.

[MrDollarBills]

Tonight's games:

Dream vs Mercury at 7:30pm EST

Lynx vs Aces at 9:30 EST, ESPN!!!!

Sorry Fever fans, you guys have to wait til Saturday

[hermes]

megan gustafson was a true 5, back to the basket post all during college (shot two 3s in four years) and was dominate during her senior year (player of the year, shot 70% from the field) but there's a good chance she isn't in the wnba right now if she didn't completely change her game to become a stretch four

[cdubbz]

The Atlanta Dream arena is damn tiny! They have an outside shot of landing Paige and would be a wild tiny arena to have her in lol.

I forgot Haley Jones was on the Dream until i looked her up a few days ago. I lightly follow Stanford Women hoops and she was a great player for them being an all around player. She has solid handles and can run some point at 6'1, but needs to get a 3 point shot going in the W.

Would love to see her in Golden State if she's up in the expansion draft.

[hermes]

trade:

lynx receive: myisha hines-allen
mystics receive: olivia epoupa, sika kone, 2nd round pick in 2026

mystics then waived epoupa and didi richards

[Ghetto Gospel]

the issue is when defense clamps down and is playing well, it's hard to get the good efficient shots like layups and 3s, so sometimes you gotta "settle" for the mid-range or the post-up. you take the best that you can get basically

I don't actually think you get to settle for post-ups in the typical case. You have to work to feed the post-up artist, and against crunch time defense that's harder and harder, which is why clutch scoring is basically always dominated by those who can operate on the perimeter.

But yeah, the mid-range is absolutely where settling happens. You want to be able to hit those shots, but if you're taking them, the defense has already won a major battle.

i will readily admit that i was thinking strictly about jokic and embiid here as they are the only 2 real true post-up artists left in the nba and in most cases it usually isn't ideal to post these guys up afaik unless they have a huge mismatch.

could be fake news because i'm not looking at the stats and only by eye test, i feel like in crunch time, i always see jokic working down there on the block late in the 4th quarter when both the game and defense is tight. i feel like it used to be jamal murray taking more of those shots but not so much anymore..? could be wrong idk

[Ghetto Gospel]

Excellent points, Doctor MJ. If I had taken the time to sort out my thoughts and write a longish message on what I meant by the trend away from post scoring, that is pretty much what I would have come up with. But not instantly, as you make some points that I had not really considered.

I'm optimistic that between the Liberty and Fever (at the least, there probably are more teams, as I am only now learning the league), which are scoring buckets by playing a modern-style NBA offense of spread, move, cut, and share, that WNBA ball will increasingly value quicks/smarts/skills/defensive versatility, and will have less emphasis on overwhelming opponents inside. All of which of course is not to say that #5s and #4s will become extinct, any more than in the NBA. But more mobility and playmaking from those bigs, as well as being able to switch defensively.

Bigs in the WNBA are gonna trend towards being able to play inside and out like Jonquel Jones and Stef Dolson, I predict. You want your 5s be able to space on offense as well as score down low.

i think that's where they should trend but it feels like people have been saying that about bigs in the NBA for a while too. the issue at least on the men's side has always been that in high level AAU play, the ball handlers, usually the guards, do most of the heavy lifting and the bigs that get the most play are the super athletes that run from rim to rim, rebound, guard the paint and finish in the paint. they aren't asked to do much shooting in the lower levels and that hampers them by the time they get to the league but maybe that'll change

realistically, there also just aren't that many talented and athletic big people in the gene pool for both men and women.

[hermes]

pretty good start for both teams

not sure about some of those fouls though