Cleveland/Denver

[bgrep14]

Denver: Porter

Cleveland: Lavert, Okoro (1 yr QO), and Niang

Cavs get a SF that can space the floor and play without the ball

Denver saves a bunch of money and gets additional depth pieces at 3 positions.

[Scoot McGroot]

Denver: Porter

Cleveland: Lavert, Okoro (1 yr QO), and Niang

Cavs get a SF that can space the floor and play without the ball

Denver saves a bunch of money and gets additional depth pieces at 3 positions.

Remember, you can’t sign and trade a player with their qualifying offer, so it’d have to be a 3 year contract for Okoro to be legal. Then, Okoro would likely also be Base Year Compensation in terms of salary matching, so it’s unlikely Denver would be able to save money, and they’d be hard capped at the first apron by receiving a player via sign and trade.

[louc1970]

Three team trade.
Bring in Pelicans.

LaVert, Okoro, Niang and a pick to NOP
Ingram to Denver
MPJ to Cleveland

NOP gets even better defensively.
Cavs get their SF
Denver gets a second player capable of passing the ball.

[jbk1234]

Denver: Porter

Cleveland: Lavert, Okoro (1 yr QO), and Niang

Cavs get a SF that can space the floor and play without the ball

Denver saves a bunch of money and gets additional depth pieces at 3 positions.

Remember, you can’t sign and trade a player with their qualifying offer, so it’d have to be a 3 year contract for Okoro to be legal. Then, Okoro would likely also be Base Year Compensation in terms of salary matching, so it’s unlikely Denver would be able to save money, and they’d be hard capped at the first apron by receiving a player via sign and trade.

Pretty sure the Cavs can renounce the QO and just S&T Okoro with Bird Rights. In any event, I think three questionable defenders in the starting unit is one too many for the Cavs.

[Scoot McGroot]

Denver: Porter

Cleveland: Lavert, Okoro (1 yr QO), and Niang

Cavs get a SF that can space the floor and play without the ball

Denver saves a bunch of money and gets additional depth pieces at 3 positions.

Remember, you can’t sign and trade a player with their qualifying offer, so it’d have to be a 3 year contract for Okoro to be legal. Then, Okoro would likely also be Base Year Compensation in terms of salary matching, so it’s unlikely Denver would be able to save money, and they’d be hard capped at the first apron by receiving a player via sign and trade.

Pretty sure the Cavs can renounce the QO and just S&T Okoro with Bird Rights. In any event, I think three questionable defenders in the starting unit is one too many for the Cavs.

Yes, they could use Bird Rights. They would need to. As I said, they can't sign and trade a player on their Qualifying Offer (which is a one year contract, and sign and trades require a 3 year contract). However, Cleveland cannot unilaterally pull the qualifying offer at this point (Okoro would have to agree), and he would then be unrestricted. They can use Bird Rights without having to do anything with the qualifying offer.

[BK_2020]

Three team trade.
Bring in Pelicans.

LaVert, Okoro, Niang and a pick to NOP
Ingram to Denver
MPJ to Cleveland

NOP gets even better defensively.
Cavs get their SF
Denver gets a second player capable of passing the ball.

How do the Pelicans get better defensively lol. You have Okoro being a better defender than Herb Jones and Trey Murphy?

[louc1970]

Three team trade.
Bring in Pelicans.

LaVert, Okoro, Niang and a pick to NOP
Ingram to Denver
MPJ to Cleveland

NOP gets even better defensively.
Cavs get their SF
Denver gets a second player capable of passing the ball.

How do the Pelicans get better defensively lol. You have Okoro being a better defender than Herb Jones and Trey Murphy?

Hahaha. Okoro is a better defender than Ingram - the one who is leaving.

[BK_2020]

Three team trade.
Bring in Pelicans.

LaVert, Okoro, Niang and a pick to NOP
Ingram to Denver
MPJ to Cleveland

NOP gets even better defensively.
Cavs get their SF
Denver gets a second player capable of passing the ball.

How do the Pelicans get better defensively lol. You have Okoro being a better defender than Herb Jones and Trey Murphy?

Hahaha. Okoro is a better defender than Ingram - the one who is leaving.

I'm not sure that's true, but even so, Okoro would not replace Ingram's 33 mpg. Herb Jones, Dejounte and Trey Murphy will take all or basically all of those minutes. Jordan Hawkins should also play a few more minutes/game this season and Zion should ramp up to about 33 mpg.

[jbk1234]

Remember, you can’t sign and trade a player with their qualifying offer, so it’d have to be a 3 year contract for Okoro to be legal. Then, Okoro would likely also be Base Year Compensation in terms of salary matching, so it’s unlikely Denver would be able to save money, and they’d be hard capped at the first apron by receiving a player via sign and trade.

Pretty sure the Cavs can renounce the QO and just S&T Okoro with Bird Rights. In any event, I think three questionable defenders in the starting unit is one too many for the Cavs.

Yes, they could use Bird Rights. They would need to. As I said, they can't sign and trade a player on their Qualifying Offer (which is a one year contract, and sign and trades require a 3 year contract). However, Cleveland cannot unilaterally pull the qualifying offer at this point (Okoro would have to agree), and he would then be unrestricted. They can use Bird Rights without having to do anything with the qualifying offer.

I mean if Okoro wouldn't agree all of these S&T proposals are DOA anyway. The point is to get around BYC and if agreeing to renounce the QO gets him to a contender making more money than he otherwise would, I think it's a fair assumption.

[jbk1234]

Three team trade.
Bring in Pelicans.

LaVert, Okoro, Niang and a pick to NOP
Ingram to Denver
MPJ to Cleveland

NOP gets even better defensively.
Cavs get their SF
Denver gets a second player capable of passing the ball.

How do the Pelicans get better defensively lol. You have Okoro being a better defender than Herb Jones and Trey Murphy?

Okoro is a much better defender than Murphy by a wide margin. While he's not a more versatile defender, or better wing defender than Herb Jones, he may be a better POA defender if you're talking about checking quicker guards.

[BK_2020]

Three team trade.
Bring in Pelicans.

LaVert, Okoro, Niang and a pick to NOP
Ingram to Denver
MPJ to Cleveland

NOP gets even better defensively.
Cavs get their SF
Denver gets a second player capable of passing the ball.

How do the Pelicans get better defensively lol. You have Okoro being a better defender than Herb Jones and Trey Murphy?

Okoro is a much better defender than Murphy by a wide margin. While he's not a more versatile defender, or better wing defender than Herb Jones, he may be a better POA defender if you're talking about checking quicker guards.

Okoro is not a good defender, let's please stop pretending he is. Just because a player is bad on offense doesn't mean he is good on defense. It's perfectly normal for a player to be bad on both offense and defense, that's why they are unable to secure a 2nd contract after their rookie deal. Nobody's gonna have Okoro checking quicker guards because that means you are playing him at guard which will just kill your offense.
In any case Okoro's def. on/off his first 4 seasons: -0.3 (56th percentile), +2.4 (29th), +2.1 (34th), +0.4 (50th).

[jbk1234]

How do the Pelicans get better defensively lol. You have Okoro being a better defender than Herb Jones and Trey Murphy?

Okoro is a much better defender than Murphy by a wide margin. While he's not a more versatile defender, or better wing defender than Herb Jones, he may be a better POA defender if you're talking about checking quicker guards.

Okoro is not a good defender, let's please stop pretending he is. Just because a player is bad on offense doesn't mean he is good on defense. It's perfectly normal for a player to be bad on both offense and defense, that's why they are unable to secure a 2nd contract after their rookie deal. Nobody's gonna have Okoro checking quicker guards because that means you are playing him at guard which will just kill your offense.
In any case Okoro's def. on/off his first 4 seasons: -0.3 (56th percentile), +2.4 (29th), +2.1 (34th), +0.4 (50th).

I'm confused. With the exception of his rookie year, the cherry picked stat you're relying on indicates he is a good defender. This is even more the case when you consider he draws the most difficult assignment whenever he hits the floor. If it's a guard, that's who he checks. If it's a wing that's who he checks.

His raw defense +/- took a hit last season because he was coming off the bench and Allen or Mobley, or when Mobley was injured, both of them were usually out of the game. Yet, he still managed to post a positive result. Okoro is better defensive option than most teams have.

[BK_2020]

Okoro is a much better defender than Murphy by a wide margin. While he's not a more versatile defender, or better wing defender than Herb Jones, he may be a better POA defender if you're talking about checking quicker guards.

Okoro is not a good defender, let's please stop pretending he is. Just because a player is bad on offense doesn't mean he is good on defense. It's perfectly normal for a player to be bad on both offense and defense, that's why they are unable to secure a 2nd contract after their rookie deal. Nobody's gonna have Okoro checking quicker guards because that means you are playing him at guard which will just kill your offense.
In any case Okoro's def. on/off his first 4 seasons: -0.3 (56th percentile), +2.4 (29th), +2.1 (34th), +0.4 (50th).

I'm confused. With the exception of his rookie year, the cherry picked stat you're relying on indicates he is a good defender. This is even more the case when you consider he draws the most difficult assignment whenever he hits the floor. If it's a guard, that's who he checks. If it's a wing that's who he checks.

His raw defense +/- took a hit last season because he was coming off the bench and Allen or Mobley, or when Mobley was injured, both of them were usually out of the game. Yet, he still managed to post a positive result. Okoro is better defensive option than most teams have.

Having a + number in defensive on/off means the opposing team is scoring more when you play vs when you don't. It's not a good thing.
Also in 2023-24, Okoro played all of 397 possessions in lineups with both Allen and Mobley off, and the Cavs in those 397 possessions had a better defensive rating than all lineups with Okoro.

[Scoot McGroot]

Pretty sure the Cavs can renounce the QO and just S&T Okoro with Bird Rights. In any event, I think three questionable defenders in the starting unit is one too many for the Cavs.

Yes, they could use Bird Rights. They would need to. As I said, they can't sign and trade a player on their Qualifying Offer (which is a one year contract, and sign and trades require a 3 year contract). However, Cleveland cannot unilaterally pull the qualifying offer at this point (Okoro would have to agree), and he would then be unrestricted. They can use Bird Rights without having to do anything with the qualifying offer.

I mean if Okoro wouldn't agree all of these S&T proposals are DOA anyway. The point is to get around BYC and if agreeing to renounce the QO gets him to a contender making more money than he otherwise would, I think it's a fair assumption.

You wouldn’t need to renounce the QO. You’d just sign and trade using a new contract.

What I’m pointing out is that Cleveland can’t just take that pending QO (that they cannot withdraw at this point without Okoro agreeing to the withdrawal) and make it a sign and trade to Denver, for multiple reasons.

The only way around BYC is if he doesn’t get a 20% raise over last year. If he wants anything at $10.705m or more, he’ll be BYC, which makes Denver’s ability to save any money via trade very tough. And receiving a player via sign and trade would hard cap them at the first apron, so they’d have to cut $6+m n the trade and get be,ow the first apron at completion.

[jbk1234]

Okoro is not a good defender, let's please stop pretending he is. Just because a player is bad on offense doesn't mean he is good on defense. It's perfectly normal for a player to be bad on both offense and defense, that's why they are unable to secure a 2nd contract after their rookie deal. Nobody's gonna have Okoro checking quicker guards because that means you are playing him at guard which will just kill your offense.
In any case Okoro's def. on/off his first 4 seasons: -0.3 (56th percentile), +2.4 (29th), +2.1 (34th), +0.4 (50th).

I'm confused. With the exception of his rookie year, the cherry picked stat you're relying on indicates he is a good defender. This is even more the case when you consider he draws the most difficult assignment whenever he hits the floor. If it's a guard, that's who he checks. If it's a wing that's who he checks.

His raw defense +/- took a hit last season because he was coming off the bench and Allen or Mobley, or when Mobley was injured, both of them were usually out of the game. Yet, he still managed to post a positive result. Okoro is better defensive option than most teams have.

Having a + number in defensive on/off means the opposing team is scoring more when you play vs when you don't. It's not a good thing.

I don't see how that's possible. The Cavs were +3.6 net with him on the court and he had a positive on/off at +1.6. Look at his play-by-play numbers.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/okorois01.html

I'd be interested in seeing your source.

[BK_2020]

I'm confused. With the exception of his rookie year, the cherry picked stat you're relying on indicates he is a good defender. This is even more the case when you consider he draws the most difficult assignment whenever he hits the floor. If it's a guard, that's who he checks. If it's a wing that's who he checks.

His raw defense +/- took a hit last season because he was coming off the bench and Allen or Mobley, or when Mobley was injured, both of them were usually out of the game. Yet, he still managed to post a positive result. Okoro is better defensive option than most teams have.

Having a + number in defensive on/off means the opposing team is scoring more when you play vs when you don't. It's not a good thing.

I don't see how that's possible. The Cavs were +3.6 net with him on the court and he had a positive on/off at +1.6. Look at his play-by-play numbers.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/okorois01.html

I'd be interested in seeing your source.

I am going by CTG which removes garbage time. They have Okoro's overall on/off at -1.9 and his overall on number at +1.5.
Okoro is an undersized wing who doesn't have great defensive instincts or floor awareness. He's not incredibly athletic or strong, either. Lowkey one of the worst draft picks in the 2020s.

[jbk1234]

Having a + number in defensive on/off means the opposing team is scoring more when you play vs when you don't. It's not a good thing.

I don't see how that's possible. The Cavs were +3.6 net with him on the court and he had a positive on/off at +1.6. Look at his play-by-play numbers.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/okorois01.html

I'd be interested in seeing your source.

I am going by CTG which removes garbage time. They have Okoro's overall on/off at -1.9 and his overall on number at +1.5.
Okoro is an undersized wing who doesn't have great defensive instincts or floor awareness. He's not incredibly athletic or strong, either. Lowkey one of the worst draft picks in the 2020s.

What is CTG? Okoro doesn't play in garbage time.

[BK_2020]

I don't see how that's possible. The Cavs were +3.6 net with him on the court and he had a positive on/off at +1.6. Look at his play-by-play numbers.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/okorois01.html

I'd be interested in seeing your source.

I am going by CTG which removes garbage time. They have Okoro's overall on/off at -1.9 and his overall on number at +1.5.
Okoro is an undersized wing who doesn't have great defensive instincts or floor awareness. He's not incredibly athletic or strong, either. Lowkey one of the worst draft picks in the 2020s.

What is CTG? Okoro doesn't play in garbage time.

Cleaning the Glass.
Whether he plays in garbage time or not, including garbage time in on/off will influence the final results since off matters as much as on.

[mg]

If you are solely talking about a POA defender who can match up against guards than I guess Okoro qualifies as a good defender. With that said he can't match up against bigger wings and is also one of the worst rebounding "wings" in the entire league.

Fairly sure the Cavs would much prefer a bigger wing with some 2 way ability over Okoro.

[jbk1234]

I am going by CTG which removes garbage time. They have Okoro's overall on/off at -1.9 and his overall on number at +1.5.
Okoro is an undersized wing who doesn't have great defensive instincts or floor awareness. He's not incredibly athletic or strong, either. Lowkey one of the worst draft picks in the 2020s.

What is CTG? Okoro doesn't play in garbage time.

Cleaning the Glass.
Whether he plays in garbage time or not, including garbage time in on/off will influence the final results since off matters as much as on.

I don't know, but more and more I'm all the way out and those types of *adjustments* or extrapolations. If you have a sufficient sample size in terms of games and minutes, use the straight +/- and on/off numbers to determine whether a player positively impacts the game.

Otherwise you end up with a considerable delta between the adjusted data and actual data with little reason to believe the adjusted data more accurately predicts impact. If the Cavs third string pummels the other team's third string with the game was out of reach, so what? It doesn't diminish what Okoro did with the game on the line against better players.

Everyone's new favorite on this board is EPM. EPM is an estimate based on BPM - a projection itself. Assuming all the *adjustments* are properly made, and you have to assume as the veracity of the data input cannot be independently verified, at some point you have to ask whether the model itself is flawed.

In any event, if you're using adjusted numbers, they should be presented as such.