2024-25 Schedule has been released

[drsd]

Sucks to see 9 road games in the first 15 games of the season. This team was pretty bad on the road last year against non scrubs.

Good thing only 4-5 of those games are against legitimately good teams.

Just don’t want to see these young guys get demoralized early on.

After a 1-1-1-1 split the first 4 games, the Magic then has for games 5-to-9:
@Chicago
@Cleveland
@Dallas
@Oklahoma City
@Indiana

We fans will learn a lot about this team from those five games. The road-road BtB with Dallas and OKC is brutal, in particular.
A 2-3 records might be the most casual fans would hope for. An 1-4 run would not surprise.

[eyriq]

Sucks to see 9 road games in the first 15 games of the season. This team was pretty bad on the road last year against non scrubs.

Good thing only 4-5 of those games are against legitimately good teams.

Just don’t want to see these young guys get demoralized early on.

After a 1-1-1-1 split the first 4 games, the Magic then has for games 5-to-9:
@Chicago
@Cleveland
@Dallas
@Oklahoma City
@Indiana

We fans will learn a lot about this team from those five games. The road-road BtB with Dallas and OKC is brutal, in particular.
A 2-3 records might be the most casual fans would hope for. An 1-4 run would not surprise.

Opening the season 4-6 is a very real possibility

[mattdelray1220]

Sucks to see 9 road games in the first 15 games of the season. This team was pretty bad on the road last year against non scrubs.

Good thing only 4-5 of those games are against legitimately good teams.

Just don’t want to see these young guys get demoralized early on.

After a 1-1-1-1 split the first 4 games, the Magic then has for games 5-to-9:
@Chicago
@Cleveland
@Dallas
@Oklahoma City
@Indiana

We fans will learn a lot about this team from those five games. The road-road BtB with Dallas and OKC is brutal, in particular.
A 2-3 records might be the most casual fans would hope for. An 1-4 run would not surprise.

Opening the season 4-6 is a very real possibility

Yes. Long season. No worried. This team is build for it. Anyone going to opener at home? Or Miami? I am in South Florida. Already have my tickets for Home Opener!

[Kent]

All that matters is the record at the end.

I don't overthink the schedule.

[eyriq]

Here is an estimation of the win probability for these games. I'm not sure what Vegas says but this is my own attempt based on home vs away, rest advantage, and team strength (from Positive Residual). The deterministic projection for the season is 52 wins (we win all the games where we have > 50% win probability). Using Monte Carlo simulation we get an expectation of 49 wins, with a 95% confidence interval of 42-57.

We are heavy favorites in 24 games (>75% win probability).
We are clear underdogs in 3 games (<25% win probability). Those games are:
- Nov 4th at OKC on a rest disadvantage
- Jan 6th at NYK on a rest disadvantage
- Jan 17th at Boston

Five games are between 49% - 51% win probability, and I thought they were interesting to note:
- Nov 20th at LAC
- Dec 23rd vs BOS
- Dec 27th vs NYK on a rest disadvantage (that is twice we have a rest disadvantage against the Knicks...)
- Mar 17th at SAS on a rest disadvantage
- Apr 9th vs BOS

Code: Select all

Date         Opp   Site  Win Probability
----------------------------------------
2024-10-23   MIA   Away  0.43
2024-10-25   BKN   Home  0.93
2024-10-26   MEM   Away  0.38
2024-10-28   IND   Home  0.72
2024-10-30   CHI   Away  0.70
2024-11-01   CLE   Away  0.37
2024-11-03   DAL   Away  0.34
2024-11-04   OKC   Away  0.21
2024-11-06   IND   Away  0.38
2024-11-08   NOP   Home  0.70
2024-11-10   WAS   Home  0.92
2024-11-12   CHA   Home  0.87
2024-11-13   IND   Home  0.61
2024-11-15   PHI   Home  0.59
2024-11-18   PHX   Away  0.46
2024-11-20   LAC   Away  0.50
2024-11-21   LAL   Away  0.38
2024-11-23   DET   Home  0.90
2024-11-25   CHA   Away  0.67
2024-11-27   CHI   Home  0.91
2024-11-29   BKN   Away  0.80
2024-12-01   BKN   Away  0.80
2024-12-03   NYK   Away  0.29
2024-12-04   PHI   Away  0.31
2024-12-06   PHI   Away  0.31
2024-12-08   PHX   Home  0.74
2024-12-19   OKC   Home  0.53
2024-12-21   MIA   Home  0.76
2024-12-23   BOS   Home  0.49
2024-12-26   MIA   Home  0.71
2024-12-27   NYK   Home  0.51
2024-12-29   BKN   Home  0.93
2025-01-01   DET   Away  0.74
2025-01-03   TOR   Away  0.66
2025-01-05   UTA   Home  0.90
2025-01-06   NYK   Away  0.24
2025-01-09   MIN   Home  0.59
2025-01-10   MIL   Home  0.54
2025-01-12   PHI   Home  0.59
2025-01-15   MIL   Away  0.38
2025-01-17   BOS   Away  0.23
2025-01-19   DEN   Home  0.61
2025-01-21   TOR   Away  0.66
2025-01-23   POR   Home  0.92
2025-01-25   DET   Home  0.90
2025-01-27   MIA   Away  0.43
2025-01-30   POR   Away  0.78
2025-02-01   UTA   Away  0.67
2025-02-03   GSW   Away  0.45
2025-02-05   SAC   Away  0.40
2025-02-06   DEN   Away  0.32
2025-02-08   SAS   Home  0.85
2025-02-10   ATL   Home  0.82
2025-02-12   CHA   Home  0.87
2025-02-20   ATL   Away  0.58
2025-02-21   MEM   Home  0.67
2025-02-23   WAS   Home  0.92
2025-02-25   CLE   Home  0.65
2025-02-27   GSW   Home  0.72
2025-03-02   TOR   Home  0.86
2025-03-04   TOR   Home  0.86
2025-03-08   MIL   Away  0.32
2025-03-10   HOU   Away  0.45
2025-03-12   CHI   Home  0.88
2025-03-14   MIN   Away  0.31
2025-03-16   CLE   Away  0.37
2025-03-17   SAS   Away  0.50
2025-03-19   HOU   Home  0.72
2025-03-21   WAS   Away  0.78
2025-03-24   LAL   Home  0.72
2025-03-25   CHA   Away  0.61
2025-03-27   DAL   Home  0.62
2025-03-29   SAC   Home  0.68
2025-03-31   LAC   Home  0.81
2025-04-03   WAS   Away  0.82
2025-04-06   NOP   Away  0.42
2025-04-08   ATL   Home  0.82
2025-04-09   BOS   Home  0.49
2025-04-11   IND   Away  0.45
2025-04-13   ATL   Away  0.58


[drsd]

Here is an estimation of the win probability for these games. I'm not sure what Vegas says but this is my own attempt based on home vs away, rest advantage, and team strength (from Positive Residual). The deterministic projection for the season is 52 wins (we win all the games where we have > 50% win probability). Using Monte Carlo simulation we get an expectation of 49 wins, with a 95% confidence interval of 42-57.

We are heavy favorites in 24 games (>75% win probability).
We are clear underdogs in 3 games (<25% win probability). Those games are:
- Nov 4th at OKC on a rest disadvantage
- Jan 6th at NYK on a rest disadvantage
- Jan 17th at Boston

Five games are between 49% - 51% win probability, and I thought they were interesting to note:
- Nov 20th at LAC
- Dec 23rd vs BOS
- Dec 27th vs NYK on a rest disadvantage (that is twice we have a rest disadvantage against the Knicks...)
- Mar 17th at SAS on a rest disadvantage
- Apr 9th vs BOS

Code: Select all

Date         Opp   Site  Win Probability
----------------------------------------
2024-10-23   MIA   Away  0.43
2024-10-25   BKN   Home  0.93
....


For the stat's nerds, such as me, this predicts a 49-31 record over these 80 games; two games cannot be known yet given the in-season tourney.
But this will undoubtedly resolve to a 50-32 prediction when those two games are added.
(( Orlando is actually at 49.31 to those 80 games; adding the final two, it is possible a 51-win after rounding up will be predicted, although it is unlikely ))

I think 50 wins as a prediction is SPOT ON!


p.s. I love that there is with >95% confidence that Orlando will finish with a winning record !!!

42 Wins!!! 42 Wins!!! 42 Wins!!! 42 Wins!!!

..

[eyriq]

Here is an estimation of the win probability for these games. I'm not sure what Vegas says but this is my own attempt based on home vs away, rest advantage, and team strength (from Positive Residual). The deterministic projection for the season is 52 wins (we win all the games where we have > 50% win probability). Using Monte Carlo simulation we get an expectation of 49 wins, with a 95% confidence interval of 42-57.

We are heavy favorites in 24 games (>75% win probability).
We are clear underdogs in 3 games (<25% win probability). Those games are:
- Nov 4th at OKC on a rest disadvantage
- Jan 6th at NYK on a rest disadvantage
- Jan 17th at Boston

Five games are between 49% - 51% win probability, and I thought they were interesting to note:
- Nov 20th at LAC
- Dec 23rd vs BOS
- Dec 27th vs NYK on a rest disadvantage (that is twice we have a rest disadvantage against the Knicks...)
- Mar 17th at SAS on a rest disadvantage
- Apr 9th vs BOS

Code: Select all

Date         Opp   Site  Win Probability
----------------------------------------
2024-10-23   MIA   Away  0.43
2024-10-25   BKN   Home  0.93
....


For the stat's nerd, this predicts a 49-31 record over these 80 games; two games cannot be known yet given the in-season tourney.
But this will undoubtedly resolve to a 50-32 prediction when those two games are added.
(( Orlando is actually at 49.31 to those 80 games; adding the final two, it is possible a 51-win after rounding up will be predicted, although it is unlikely ))

I think 50 wins as a prediction is SPOT ON!


p.s. I love that there is with >95% confidence that Orlando will finish with a winning record !!!

42 Wins!!! 42 Wins!!! 42 Wins!!! 42 Wins!!!

..

Oh haha, I totally forgot to consider this missing two games! Good catch

[drsd]

Oh haha, I totally forgot to consider this missing two games! Good catch

To clarify, I was calling myself a nerd. And I thank you for doing this.

p.s. many are "worried" about the first 9 games, given all the road games:
2024-10-23 MIA Away 0.43
2024-10-25 BKN Home 0.93
2024-10-26 MEM Away 0.38
2024-10-28 IND Home 0.72
2024-10-30 CHI Away 0.70
2024-11-01 CLE Away 0.37
2024-11-03 DAL Away 0.34
2024-11-04 OKC Away 0.21
2024-11-06 IND Away 0.38


The prediction here is 4.46 wins, or a 4-5 record. That's really OK.


Also, in case it is not obvious, eyriq has predictions for ALL 80 games known. Here is it in another format.
Full list:

Date Opp Site Win Probability
----------------------------------------
2024-10-23 MIA Away 0.43
2024-10-25 BKN Home 0.93
2024-10-26 MEM Away 0.38
2024-10-28 IND Home 0.72
2024-10-30 CHI Away 0.70
2024-11-01 CLE Away 0.37
2024-11-03 DAL Away 0.34
2024-11-04 OKC Away 0.21
2024-11-06 IND Away 0.38
2024-11-08 NOP Home 0.70
2024-11-10 WAS Home 0.92
2024-11-12 CHA Home 0.87
2024-11-13 IND Home 0.61
2024-11-15 PHI Home 0.59
2024-11-18 PHX Away 0.46
2024-11-20 LAC Away 0.50
2024-11-21 LAL Away 0.38
2024-11-23 DET Home 0.90
2024-11-25 CHA Away 0.67
2024-11-27 CHI Home 0.91
2024-11-29 BKN Away 0.80
2024-12-01 BKN Away 0.80
2024-12-03 NYK Away 0.29
2024-12-04 PHI Away 0.31
2024-12-06 PHI Away 0.31
2024-12-08 PHX Home 0.74
2024-12-19 OKC Home 0.53
2024-12-21 MIA Home 0.76
2024-12-23 BOS Home 0.49
2024-12-26 MIA Home 0.71
2024-12-27 NYK Home 0.51
2024-12-29 BKN Home 0.93
2025-01-01 DET Away 0.74
2025-01-03 TOR Away 0.66
2025-01-05 UTA Home 0.90
2025-01-06 NYK Away 0.24
2025-01-09 MIN Home 0.59
2025-01-10 MIL Home 0.54
2025-01-12 PHI Home 0.59
2025-01-15 MIL Away 0.38
2025-01-17 BOS Away 0.23
2025-01-19 DEN Home 0.61
2025-01-21 TOR Away 0.66
2025-01-23 POR Home 0.92
2025-01-25 DET Home 0.90
2025-01-27 MIA Away 0.43
2025-01-30 POR Away 0.78
2025-02-01 UTA Away 0.67
2025-02-03 GSW Away 0.45
2025-02-05 SAC Away 0.40
2025-02-06 DEN Away 0.32
2025-02-08 SAS Home 0.85
2025-02-10 ATL Home 0.82
2025-02-12 CHA Home 0.87
2025-02-20 ATL Away 0.58
2025-02-21 MEM Home 0.67
2025-02-23 WAS Home 0.92
2025-02-25 CLE Home 0.65
2025-02-27 GSW Home 0.72
2025-03-02 TOR Home 0.86
2025-03-04 TOR Home 0.86
2025-03-08 MIL Away 0.32
2025-03-10 HOU Away 0.45
2025-03-12 CHI Home 0.88
2025-03-14 MIN Away 0.31
2025-03-16 CLE Away 0.37
2025-03-17 SAS Away 0.50
2025-03-19 HOU Home 0.72
2025-03-21 WAS Away 0.78
2025-03-24 LAL Home 0.72
2025-03-25 CHA Away 0.61
2025-03-27 DAL Home 0.62
2025-03-29 SAC Home 0.68
2025-03-31 LAC Home 0.81
2025-04-03 WAS Away 0.82
2025-04-06 NOP Away 0.42
2025-04-08 ATL Home 0.82
2025-04-09 BOS Home 0.49
2025-04-11 IND Away 0.45
2025-04-13 ATL Away 0.58

[eyriq]

I'm content with this 2-1 start. Looking back I had the Miami game as a toss up, the Brooklyn game as a win, and the Memphis game as a loss. We are favored in the next two, let's see how it goes. A 4-1 start would be lit.