Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[Fairview4Life]

Arizona is 11-4 since Moreno got injured. They called up Adrian Del Castillo to replace him; and he has proceeded to do the following:

.361/.425/.667 with 3 HR's in 10 games. Good for 0.6 fWAR.

Is Moreno even the everyday catcher once he gets back teheheheh?

No, they're gonna run with Del Castillo down the stretch because he can actually hit the ball out of the infield.

What a coup of a trade.

You and Met are reaching.

What does Del Castillo's performance have to do with the trade? Sometimes organizations develop their own prospects. This has occurred almost 2 years after the trade and Arizona has gotten good value out of Moreno so far. Now Arizona has potential depth in their catching pool unlike the Jays who have nothing. If Del Castillo does better than Moreno over the long run they can trade Moreno to help themselves in other areas. Developing a better catcher than the one Arizona acquired does not diminish the value they procured and we lost in the trade.

Maybe they can trade Moreno for the best defensive player in baseball with an average bat. A guy who has been more valuable than Moreno.

[Randle McMurphy]

Arizona is 11-4 since Moreno got injured. They called up Adrian Del Castillo to replace him; and he has proceeded to do the following:

.361/.425/.667 with 3 HR's in 10 games. Good for 0.6 fWAR.

Is Moreno even the everyday catcher once he gets back teheheheh?

No, they're gonna run with Del Castillo down the stretch because he can actually hit the ball out of the infield.

What a coup of a trade.

You and Met are reaching.

What does Del Castillo's performance have to do with the trade? Sometimes organizations develop their own prospects. This has occurred almost 2 years after the trade and Arizona has gotten good value out of Moreno so far. Now Arizona has potential depth in their catching pool unlike the Jays who have nothing. If Del Castillo does better than Moreno over the long run they can trade Moreno to help themselves in other areas. Developing a better catcher than the one Arizona acquired does not diminish the value they procured and we lost in the trade.

It's still hard to fathom how anybody believes we lost a trade where we acquired the best player in the deal by far.

[Randle McMurphy]

Read on Twitter

It feels good to have kept the best catcher of the three.

[PowerPlant1]

No, they're gonna run with Del Castillo down the stretch because he can actually hit the ball out of the infield.

What a coup of a trade.

You and Met are reaching.

What does Del Castillo's performance have to do with the trade? Sometimes organizations develop their own prospects. This has occurred almost 2 years after the trade and Arizona has gotten good value out of Moreno so far. Now Arizona has potential depth in their catching pool unlike the Jays who have nothing. If Del Castillo does better than Moreno over the long run they can trade Moreno to help themselves in other areas. Developing a better catcher than the one Arizona acquired does not diminish the value they procured and we lost in the trade.

It's still hard to fathom how anybody believes we lost a trade where we acquired the best player in the deal by far.

Your criteria of what is best is arguable, not a given especially with the basis by which you value things. For instance.....

You proclaim Kirk the best of the 3 catchers because of his caught stealing success. The fact he is an offensive liability with ops 70 points lower than Moreno is conveniently ignored.

Even this season, Varsho being proclaimed as better than Moreno is debatable. That is because Moreno's ops is still higher than Varsho's (729 vs 704).

Baseball Savant rates Varsho: 51 batting, 100 defense. vs Moreno 68 batting, 79 defense. Does that sound like a coup of a trade to you? Sounds like Moreno is the better all round player and Varsho the elite defender with some hitting improvements (on a team that needs offense). The scales are tipped to the Jays if that 100 in defense results in relatively higher DRS #s (which of course makes more difference on a competitive team that can hit and still is not equivalent to the importance of runs generated).

Last season Varsho's putrid offense cost the Jays when the team was competitive. Couple that with losing Guriel for one season when the Jays needed offense and this trade is an overall loss. It's just too bad Varsho didn't exceed Moreno in ops. I am sure you were hoping for that when in the early season you proclaimed Varsho a changed hitter based on a hot start. Fact is he still hasn't hit like he did in AZ. Still more season to go but we'll see.

My assessment: loss in year one, marginal win in year two. Overall net loss but doesn't feel as bad this year.

[PowerPlant1]

No, they're gonna run with Del Castillo down the stretch because he can actually hit the ball out of the infield.

What a coup of a trade.

You and Met are reaching.

What does Del Castillo's performance have to do with the trade? Sometimes organizations develop their own prospects. This has occurred almost 2 years after the trade and Arizona has gotten good value out of Moreno so far. Now Arizona has potential depth in their catching pool unlike the Jays who have nothing. If Del Castillo does better than Moreno over the long run they can trade Moreno to help themselves in other areas. Developing a better catcher than the one Arizona acquired does not diminish the value they procured and we lost in the trade.

Maybe they can trade Moreno for the best defensive player in baseball with an average bat. A guy who has been more valuable than Moreno.

If they'd do that and needed offense, they'd be as clueless as this FO.

[Randle McMurphy]

You and Met are reaching.

What does Del Castillo's performance have to do with the trade? Sometimes organizations develop their own prospects. This has occurred almost 2 years after the trade and Arizona has gotten good value out of Moreno so far. Now Arizona has potential depth in their catching pool unlike the Jays who have nothing. If Del Castillo does better than Moreno over the long run they can trade Moreno to help themselves in other areas. Developing a better catcher than the one Arizona acquired does not diminish the value they procured and we lost in the trade.

It's still hard to fathom how anybody believes we lost a trade where we acquired the best player in the deal by far.

Even this season, Varsho being proclaimed as better than Moreno is debatable.

Varsho has 4.7 WAR this year to Moreno’s 2.0 WAR lol

The trade was an absolute coup for the Jays

[Parataxis]

Randle is definitely trolling, because he knows people will respond, and worked up about this trade.

Since April 27th, Varsho is hitting .190/.272/.355 for a .627OPS and 77 wRC+. He will be non-tendered after the 2025 season if he continues hitting like this.

On the season when Moreno got hurt, the "far better player" had a 2.4 fWAR whereas Moreno had a 2.3fWAR in about 20 fewer games.

There is zero chance that he gets non-tendered if he keeps playing like he's been doing.

[brwnman]

Randle is definitely trolling, because he knows people will respond, and worked up about this trade.

Since April 27th, Varsho is hitting .190/.272/.355 for a .627OPS and 77 wRC+. He will be non-tendered after the 2025 season if he continues hitting like this.

On the season when Moreno got hurt, the "far better player" had a 2.4 fWAR whereas Moreno had a 2.3fWAR in about 20 fewer games.

There is zero chance that he gets non-tendered if he keeps playing like he's been doing.

Agreed. If he’s a league average bat, he’s not getting non-tendered, not even close.

If he continued to hit at a 77wRC+ for this year and the entirety of next year, it would be more likely than not.

Both of these things can be true.

#Sellhigh (if there are any takers)

[Madvillainy2004]

It's still hard to fathom how anybody believes we lost a trade where we acquired the best player in the deal by far.

Even this season, Varsho being proclaimed as better than Moreno is debatable.

Varsho has 4.7 WAR this year to Moreno’s 2.0 WAR lol

The trade was an absolute coup for the Jays

In a big surprise of events I was right about Morenos bWAR being artificially boosted by his pitch calling and he's not actually the best pitch caller in major league history lmao

[Natural11]

Read on Twitter

It feels good to have kept the best catcher of the three.

Ok, come on now you're just trolling. It's one thing to compare the value of Moreno to Varsho, but are you suggesting that if 30 GMs were asked if all things were equal, would they rather have Moreno or Kirk, over half would choose Kirk?

[Randle McMurphy]

Read on Twitter

It feels good to have kept the best catcher of the three.

Ok, come on now you're just trolling. It's one thing to compare the value of Moreno to Varsho, but are you suggesting that if 30 GMs were asked if all things were equal, would they rather have Moreno or Kirk, over half would choose Kirk?

They’ll all be choosing Kirk by this time next year. He’s clearly a better hitter (the offensive numbers are already reverting to the mean) and fielder than him.

[-MetA4-]

Agreed. If he’s a league average bat, he’s not getting non-tendered, not even close.

If he continued to hit at a 77wRC+ for this year and the entirety of next year, it would be more likely than not.

Both of these things can be true.

Strong back-peddling.

A player of his overall value is not getting non-tendered even with a 77 wRC+.

Andres Gimenez has a 79 wRC+ this season for the 1st place Cleveland Guardians. He's not getting non-tendered. Dansby Swanson has an 84 wRC+. Again, he's not getting non-tendered. These are elite defensive players.

Orlando Arcia has a 72 wRC+ this season as the starting SS for the Atlanta Braves. Again, another elite defensive player. Playing for a contending team.

Even the stupid hypothetical of Varsho being a 77 wRC+ hitter "for this year and the entirety of next year" is silly once you consider that nothing in Varsho's MLB history suggests that he is a 77 wRC+ hitter. His past 4 seasons: 101, 85, 107, 100. So even his worst season is nearly 10-points above 77 wRC+. In reality, he is a ~100 wRC+ hitter (ie: leagued average) and is an above-average starter.

[brwnman]

Agreed. If he’s a league average bat, he’s not getting non-tendered, not even close.

If he continued to hit at a 77wRC+ for this year and the entirety of next year, it would be more likely than not.

Both of these things can be true.

Strong back-peddling.

A player of his overall value is not getting non-tendered even with a 77 wRC+.

Andres Gimenez has a 79 wRC+ this season for the 1st place Cleveland Guardians. He's not getting non-tendered. Dansby Swanson has an 84 wRC+. Again, he's not getting non-tendered. These are elite defensive players.

Orlando Arcia has a 72 wRC+ this season as the starting SS for the Atlanta Braves. Again, another elite defensive player. Playing for a contending team.

Even the stupid hypothetical of Varsho being a 77 wRC+ hitter "for this year and the entirety of next year" is silly once you consider that nothing in Varsho's MLB history suggests that he is a 77 wRC+ hitter. His past 4 seasons: 101, 85, 107, 100. So even his worst season is nearly 10-points above 77 wRC+. In reality, he is a ~100 wRC+ hitter (ie: leagued average) and is an above-average starter.

You say "back-peddling," and I just point to lack of reading comprehension and following the thread.

Original comment:

Varsho is closer to being non-tendered than being paid like a 5-WAR player. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jays did non-tender him if he has another offensive year like this one next year - only thing that makes it palatable is he’s likely playing CF next year. But paying 12-14M for that offensive production in 2026 might be hard to swallow.

followed up by

Since April 27th, Varsho is hitting .190/.272/.355 for a .627OPS and 77 wRC+. He will be non-tendered after the 2025 season if he continues hitting like this.

The argument isn't whether he will hit or not hit at a 77 wRC+, it was "if," clearly an extreme example. But it was to point out he's more likely to be non-tendered than paid like a 5 WAR player. Still strongly stand by that statement. Even metrics have a huge variance depending on how you value defense - fWAR and bWAR are 1.6 apart... that's massive. Teams simply don't value defense enough to pay them the same as players with the same WAR that is largely derived from offense.

The examples you gave are ridiculous.

Gimenez is signed through 2029 - of course he's not getting non-tendered. Swanson is signed through 2029 to guaranteed money, of course he's not getting non-tendered. Look at what Orlando Arcia is making... of course he's not getting non-tendered.

Varsho would be heading into his last season of arbitration in 2026, and would end up costing 10M-14M. There's better way to spend that money. A lot would depend on team composition, but generally, you can simply non-tender and re-sign the player to a cheaper contract if he fits your team. You have to understand baseball contracts to a basic degree, know pre-arb and arb players before just spewing nonsense.

[bartron_44]

Here is an honest legit question for all those Varsho lovers…. Do you think he is even still an everyday player next year?

I think there is actually a chance he is traded this off season, but if not, he could become their 4th OF next year.. a .300 OBP and .700 OPS are the kinds of numbers that find most OF back on the minor leagues ffs. I think they need to try and trade both Springer and Varsho this off season. Or they need to improve the order 1-8 so they can hide Dalton in the 9 hole like they did with Kk last year.

The fact is, he is never going to win a SS or be an all-star. So he really isnt that valuable. … despite what WAR may try to lead you to believe.

Gabriel Moreno is the best defensive catcher to hot MLB since Yadier Molina. When healthy he is a 5 tool catcher, who has already been an all-star once.. and has many more in his future. This trade is still 100% a loss.

[Fairview4Life]

Here is an honest legit question for all those Varsho lovers…. Do you think he is even still an everyday player next year?

I would suggest reading the last few pages of the thread before asking a silly question.

Gabriel Moreno is the best defensive catcher to hot MLB since Yadier Molina.

Kirk has been a better defensive catcher than Moreno this year. Moreno was the "best" defensive catcher using a metric heavily weighted for pitcher era, which is a terrible way to judge catcher defense.

When healthy he is a 5 tool catcher

No he is absolutely not. He is somehow a bad baserunner, despite being a good athlete. He cannot hit for power at all. Those are two of the 5 tools right there.

[JTT]

Agreed. If he’s a league average bat, he’s not getting non-tendered, not even close.

If he continued to hit at a 77wRC+ for this year and the entirety of next year, it would be more likely than not.

Both of these things can be true.

Strong back-peddling.

A player of his overall value is not getting non-tendered even with a 77 wRC+.

Andres Gimenez has a 79 wRC+ this season for the 1st place Cleveland Guardians. He's not getting non-tendered. Dansby Swanson has an 84 wRC+. Again, he's not getting non-tendered. These are elite defensive players.

Orlando Arcia has a 72 wRC+ this season as the starting SS for the Atlanta Braves. Again, another elite defensive player. Playing for a contending team.

Even the stupid hypothetical of Varsho being a 77 wRC+ hitter "for this year and the entirety of next year" is silly once you consider that nothing in Varsho's MLB history suggests that he is a 77 wRC+ hitter. His past 4 seasons: 101, 85, 107, 100. So even his worst season is nearly 10-points above 77 wRC+. In reality, he is a ~100 wRC+ hitter (ie: leagued average) and is an above-average starter.

You say "back-peddling," and I just point to lack of reading comprehension and following the thread.

Original comment:

Varsho is closer to being non-tendered than being paid like a 5-WAR player. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jays did non-tender him if he has another offensive year like this one next year - only thing that makes it palatable is he’s likely playing CF next year. But paying 12-14M for that offensive production in 2026 might be hard to swallow.

followed up by

Since April 27th, Varsho is hitting .190/.272/.355 for a .627OPS and 77 wRC+. He will be non-tendered after the 2025 season if he continues hitting like this.

The argument isn't whether he will hit or not hit at a 77 wRC+, it was "if," clearly an extreme example. But it was to point out he's more likely to be non-tendered than paid like a 5 WAR player. Still strongly stand by that statement. Even metrics have a huge variance depending on how you value defense - fWAR and bWAR are 1.6 apart... that's massive. Teams simply don't value defense enough to pay them the same as players with the same WAR that is largely derived from offense.

The examples you gave are ridiculous.

Gimenez is signed through 2029 - of course he's not getting non-tendered. Swanson is signed through 2029 to guaranteed money, of course he's not getting non-tendered. Look at what Orlando Arcia is making... of course he's not getting non-tendered.

Varsho would be heading into his last season of arbitration in 2026, and would end up costing 10M-14M. There's better way to spend that money. A lot would depend on team composition, but generally, you can simply non-tender and re-sign the player to a cheaper contract if he fits your team. You have to understand baseball contracts to a basic degree, know pre-arb and arb players before just spewing nonsense.

WAR was gernerally considered to be worth $9M/war for any above 2, in 2022. Given either projection, Varsho is valued at greater than 10M. Baseball reference will probably finish this year valuing Varsho at somewhere around 15$ and FanGraphs, considerably more. Considering the Jays signings of Kiermayer (9M) and IKF (15/2) , do you really think there’s any chance at all of a non tender for a player not yet 30? Especially at 10m? C’mon.

[brwnman]

Strong back-peddling.

A player of his overall value is not getting non-tendered even with a 77 wRC+.

Andres Gimenez has a 79 wRC+ this season for the 1st place Cleveland Guardians. He's not getting non-tendered. Dansby Swanson has an 84 wRC+. Again, he's not getting non-tendered. These are elite defensive players.

Orlando Arcia has a 72 wRC+ this season as the starting SS for the Atlanta Braves. Again, another elite defensive player. Playing for a contending team.

Even the stupid hypothetical of Varsho being a 77 wRC+ hitter "for this year and the entirety of next year" is silly once you consider that nothing in Varsho's MLB history suggests that he is a 77 wRC+ hitter. His past 4 seasons: 101, 85, 107, 100. So even his worst season is nearly 10-points above 77 wRC+. In reality, he is a ~100 wRC+ hitter (ie: leagued average) and is an above-average starter.

You say "back-peddling," and I just point to lack of reading comprehension and following the thread.

Original comment:

Varsho is closer to being non-tendered than being paid like a 5-WAR player. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jays did non-tender him if he has another offensive year like this one next year - only thing that makes it palatable is he’s likely playing CF next year. But paying 12-14M for that offensive production in 2026 might be hard to swallow.

followed up by

Since April 27th, Varsho is hitting .190/.272/.355 for a .627OPS and 77 wRC+. He will be non-tendered after the 2025 season if he continues hitting like this.

The argument isn't whether he will hit or not hit at a 77 wRC+, it was "if," clearly an extreme example. But it was to point out he's more likely to be non-tendered than paid like a 5 WAR player. Still strongly stand by that statement. Even metrics have a huge variance depending on how you value defense - fWAR and bWAR are 1.6 apart... that's massive. Teams simply don't value defense enough to pay them the same as players with the same WAR that is largely derived from offense.

The examples you gave are ridiculous.

Gimenez is signed through 2029 - of course he's not getting non-tendered. Swanson is signed through 2029 to guaranteed money, of course he's not getting non-tendered. Look at what Orlando Arcia is making... of course he's not getting non-tendered.

Varsho would be heading into his last season of arbitration in 2026, and would end up costing 10M-14M. There's better way to spend that money. A lot would depend on team composition, but generally, you can simply non-tender and re-sign the player to a cheaper contract if he fits your team. You have to understand baseball contracts to a basic degree, know pre-arb and arb players before just spewing nonsense.

WAR was gernerally considered to be worth $9M/war for any above 2, in 2022. Given either projection, Varsho is valued at greater than 10M. Baseball reference will probably finish this year valuing Varsho at somewhere around 15$ and FanGraphs, considerably more. Considering the Jays signings of Kiermayer (9M) and IKF (15/2) , do you really think there’s any chance at all of a non tender for a player not yet 30? Especially at 10m? C’mon.

Let's play this scenario out:

2023 - 85 wRC+ (3M)
2024 - 77 wRC+ (5.6M)
2025 - 77wRC+ (~8M)

In 2026, assume a modest increase of 2M and it becomes 10M. Yes, at this point, Varsho is more than likely getting non-tendered. It's not a wise way to spend money. You can find a veteran CF who plays good defense at a fraction of the cost (see Michael Taylor last couple of years).

Also, no one wanted to pay KK this year- Jays foolishly did when they already had Varsho in the fold. IKF was seen as an overpay by the industry. Players that get majority of their value of WAR from defense do not get paid the same way as players who get their WAR from offense. They can have the same exact WAR, and will get paid very differently.

[JTT]

Michael Taylor’s defence, although good is vastly different than Varhso’s.

Of the 2023 non tenders Brandon Woodruff at 2.4 war had the highest. His non-tender was 11.6Million and his arm quite literally fell off. Do you really value defence so little that you don’t consider it at all in your valuations? Ignoring Varsho’s defence (his best attribute by far) is at the very least an incomplete valuation. Even if you do, Varsho’s wrc+ is 101 now, not 77

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/daulton-varsho/19918/stats?position=OF

[brwnman]

Michael Taylor’s defence, although good is vastly different than Varhso’s.

Of the 2023 non tenders Brandon Woodruff at 2.4 war had the highest. His non-tender was 11.6Million and his arm quite literally fell off. Do you really value defence so little that you don’t consider it at all in your valuations? Ignoring Varsho’s defence (his best attribute by far) is at the very least an incomplete valuation. Even if you do, Varsho’s wrc+ is 101 now, not 77

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/daulton-varsho/19918/stats?position=OF

That's why context to what I said is/was important. We were taking the extreme position where his wRC+ remains at 77. Did I think it's likely? No.

But I also think he's a below average hitter and he's likely to end the year between 90-95 OPS.

Michael Taylor’s defence, although good is vastly different than Varhso’s.

Last year would be pretty comparable to Taylor's 2021 season when he got his extension. Obviously not exact, but close.

[JTT]

So, in the unlikely event that his WRC reverts back to 77 and the unlikely event that his defence reverts to something like would be Michael Taylors, then he’ll be probably be non-tendered?

Ok…I guess.