Now what?

[BlazersBroncos]

I was trying to show that most, in fact nearly all, players are generally in their finished form by that age + number of games / minutes.

Take a guy generally considered a 'late bloomer' in Kris Middleton - he took his leap during his age 24 season - prior to that he had played in 188 games totaling 5,313 minutes. Another guy is Jermaine who broke out his age 23 season - prior to that he had played 292 games totaling 5K minutes over 6 seasons. These guys are consitered late bloomers and clearly bloomed much earlier than Simons / Ayton per the game and minute totals + age/seasons played.

Oladipo having that insane 2017/18 season at age 25 after simply being a really nice defender and 3-4th option is a pretty unusual jump - prior to that he played 291 games totaling 9,661 minutes over 4 seasons. Thise metrics are pretty close to Simons games / minutes - but another caveat here is that Dipo was a 2 way player and one thing that NEVER happens is somsone going from being close to worse in the league at D to being a 2-way player after being in the L for as long as Simons.

One example that may fit is Kyle Lowry who didnt make an ASG until age 28 - he was at 742 games and 16K minutes. On the other hand, Lowry didnt exactly add to his game but rather was finally given the reigns to a team - his WS/48 and BPM were consistently really good prior to that year 28 season.

I am trying to illustrate that guys making big jumps after half a decade in the league, with a ton of minutes and games played, are not things that generally happen in this league. I had to rack my brain for the above outliers (Lowry, Dipo) and I would argue that the 2-way nature of their games makes them less than idea comparisons to Simons.

I tried but could not really come up with a scenario of a player with a archetype similar to Simons transforming their game given similar metrics (IE age, years in league, minutes played, games played). I could be wrong, simply cant think of an example though.

Point being - its highly, highly likely that Simons and Ayton simply are who they are.

[m0ng0]

I was trying to show that most, in fact nearly all, players are generally in their finished form by that age + number of games / minutes.

Take a guy generally considered a 'late bloomer' in Kris Middleton - he took his leap during his age 24 season - prior to that he had played in 188 games totaling 5,313 minutes. Another guy is Jermaine who broke out his age 23 season - prior to that he had played 292 games totaling 5K minutes over 6 seasons. These guys are consitered late bloomers and clearly bloomed much earlier than Simons / Ayton per the game and minute totals + age/seasons played.

Oladipo having that insane 2017/18 season at age 25 after simply being a really nice defender and 3-4th option is a pretty unusual jump - prior to that he played 291 games totaling 9,661 minutes over 4 seasons. Thise metrics are pretty close to Simons games / minutes - but another caveat here is that Dipo was a 2 way player and one thing that NEVER happens is somsone going from being close to worse in the league at D to being a 2-way player after being in the L for as long as Simons.

One example that may fit is Kyle Lowry who didnt make an ASG until age 28 - he was at 742 games and 16K minutes. On the other hand, Lowry didnt exactly add to his game but rather was finally given the reigns to a team - his WS/48 and BPM were consistently really good prior to that year 28 season.

I am trying to illustrate that guys making big jumps after half a decade in the league, with a ton of minutes and games played, are not things that generally happen in this league. I had to rack my brain for the above outliers (Lowry, Dipo) and I would argue that the 2-way nature of their games makes them less than idea comparisons to Simons.

I tried but could not really come up with a scenario of a player with a archetype similar to Simons transforming their game given similar metrics (IE age, years in league, minutes played, games played). I could be wrong, simply cant think of an example though.

Point being - its highly, highly likely that Simons and Ayton simply are who they are.

I appreciate the post, I truly do, and it gives me something to think about. I was doing a little homework on this also. Jokic was kind of a late bloomer, Jerami Grant also, Dennis Rodman kinda, in addition to the players you mentioned. They're are probably many more but ot takes time to dig that deep.

Again it's not out of the realm of possibility but 21 and 5.5 and 3.6 is not a scrub, 18 and 10 for a center is solid as hell, I just think we get a little over our skis when we treat players like cards or 2k players. Usually it's quite a combination of variables that create a winning season. Also I was shocked when I learned only 12 teams have back to back playoff runs currently. Cheers

[Norm2953]

It's likely Ayton/Simons are the players they appear to be in 2024/5. It would be one thing
if they were always getting hurt and finally got healthy enough to play.

Scoot will be an interesting player for he had a number of nagging injuries in an inconsistent
rookie season. He will be playing on a roster with scoring threats in Grant, DA1, DA2 and
either Ant/Sharpe. He will have to figure out where he can score consistently on the court
but hopefully the games will slow down for him at some point in his soph season.

[BlazersBroncos]

It's likely Ayton/Simons are the players they appear to be in 2024/5. It would be one thing
if they were always getting hurt and finally got healthy enough to play.

Scoot will be an interesting player for he had a number of nagging injuries in an inconsistent
rookie season. He will be playing on a roster with scoring threats in Grant, DA1, DA2 and
either Ant/Sharpe. He will have to figure out where he can score consistently on the court
but hopefully the games will slow down for him at some point in his soph season.

I have been hard on Scoot but one thing he showed last season is the ability to get to ‘his spots’. Finishing from those spots was abysmal but it’s still noteworthy that a rookie as young as him was able to get where he wanted to get on the court at will.

Generally I think you would rather a guy need to work on shooting and finishing BUT have the ability to get to his spots over the inverse.

[Pattycakes]

It's likely Ayton/Simons are the players they appear to be in 2024/5. It would be one thing
if they were always getting hurt and finally got healthy enough to play.

Scoot will be an interesting player for he had a number of nagging injuries in an inconsistent
rookie season. He will be playing on a roster with scoring threats in Grant, DA1, DA2 and
either Ant/Sharpe. He will have to figure out where he can score consistently on the court
but hopefully the games will slow down for him at some point in his soph season.

I have been hard on Scoot but one thing he showed last season is the ability to get to ‘his spots’. Finishing from those spots was abysmal but it’s still noteworthy that a rookie as young as him was able to get where he wanted to get on the court at will.

Generally I think you would rather a guy need to work on shooting and finishing BUT have the ability to get to his spots over the inverse.

You get it.

Let’s go a step further.

Some guys have the it factor.

You get… “it”.

[m0ng0]

The instincts are there which you really can't teach, but it seems to be something in his head. Fear, nerves, lack of confidence, lack of focus, maybe he gets to the spot and is still halfway looking for a pass instead of just finishing it. That could be coaching, it could be pressure from his teammates there are alot of things going on in his head at 19 as still a child among men.

I think in many ways the G League is detrimental to a players development, the coaching is not as good and less staff (im guessing) they seem to have carte blanche to do whatever they want and don't develope chemistry as players are popping in and out all season, so you just think ok I'm going to do me and that does not translate to the NBA (at his age)

Just a thought

[Norm2953]

Some guys can get to their spots but still can't score however.

Perhaps as the game slows down for him, that extra split second would allow him to square his body
and shoot a high percentage but he's going to be a distributor of the ball first, in charge of getting the
ball to the team mate who is in the best position to score.

I worry less about Scoot for he seems to really want to be the guy who was drafted third in the draft.
I really want Sharpe to really seize the starting SG spot from Simons for he'll be playing for next year's
contract extension. If he's still playing behind Simons, he's going to get competition for the SG spot from
next year's #1 pick.

[BlazersBroncos]

Some guys can get to their spots but still can't score however.

O agree absolutely. I am not as convinced that Scoot will be special as I was when he was drafted. His finishing was historically bad, his shot is unreliable at best (I do lean on the 'FT to 3PT' correlation - which gives me some hope - albeit his form makes him likely a guy that wont ever be a true gunner from 3).

I would say the likely outcome is closer to a better defending Kemba than the prime-Rose that many here hoped for when drafted - but there is a huge variance both directions - I can absolutely see him, despite his work ethic, simply never making it.

I can also see him becoming better than Kemba - albeit I think thats even less likely than a full burnout.

That all being said - I am 0% convinced we have our true future #1 guy on this roster right now. I dont see Scoot ever being a good enough shooter to be that guy (And also tend to not believe traditional type PG's are even viable as #1 guys on true contenders) and think Sharpe simply isnt mentally hungry enough to get there (I think his best outcome is #2, more likely high end #3, who somehow coasts to like 22-25ppg but just doesnt have the mentality or personality to really lead a team - and again like Scoot I am not convinced we are in a NBA where a traditional type SG can be a contending teams lead guy).

The above is why I am all in on just bottoming out. We need that swing forward or elite big that can be our teams #1.

[zzaj]

At lot of talk about Scoot "getting to spots" and finishing, shooting getting better...

IMHO, the main reason why Scoot is behind in some of these areas is because of what's between his ears.

His inability to process and respond to set defenses in particular, neutered a lot of what he does well. He slowly figured out over the course of the season the speed/strength and rotations of NBA defenses, and he began to fall back on something he's always done fairly well--non-C&S 3 pointers, which helped his 3pt% quite a bit.

It usually takes time for PGs, we all know this...and until Scoot shows the ability to process and navigate defenses more quickly he'll be a below average PG.

The Blazers 100% need to play with more pace next season. They've talked about it for years, and never have...largely because of Brandon Roy and Lillard. But Scoot/Sharpe are pace players. They play better against un-set defense than set defense. Deni too thrives in the open court and at a fast possession game, apparently.

[JRoy]

At lot of talk about Scoot "getting to spots" and finishing, shooting getting better...

IMHO, the main reason why Scoot is behind in some of these areas is because of what's between his ears.

His inability to process and respond to set defenses in particular, neutered a lot of what he does well. He slowly figured out over the course of the season the speed/strength and rotations of NBA defenses, and he began to fall back on something he's always done fairly well--non-C&S 3 pointers, which helped his 3pt% quite a bit.

It usually takes time for PGs, we all know this...and until Scoot shows the ability to process and navigate defenses more quickly he'll be a below average PG.

The Blazers 100% need to play with more pace next season. They've talked about it for years, and never have...largely because of Brandon Roy and Lillard. But Scoot/Sharpe are pace players. They play better against un-set defense than set defense. Deni too thrives in the open court and at a fast possession game, apparently.

The team needs to get stops and control the glass to do that.

[mighty_duck]

At lot of talk about Scoot "getting to spots" and finishing

"getting to your spot" is only a part of the equation. Scoot was often able to get close to the rim, either using a pick or through his innate athleticism. At lower levels (like the G-league), that was enough to get you a layup. But at the NBA, your defender is either taller or about as athletic, and help defense is much smarter, longer and faster.
The result was a highly contested shot, which forced Scoot in to some very awkward finishes, and very low FG% at the rim.

It improved somewhat toward the end of the season. There are a lot of little things that will need improvement - quick change of speed and direction, hesitation and fakes, using strength and your hips to pin your defender. Things that Dame and BRoy before him did very well from day one for us. But they came in after a lot of good coaching and reps at the college level.
Ant, like Scoot, was also missing a lot of that in his first seasons. I began to worry that he was nothing but a glorified set shooter. But he has grown in to a special scorer with the ball in his hands. And while Scoot may never be the 3pt shooter Ant is, he is already a better passer, and is far stronger. I still have hope he'll be able grow in to a real threat when driving.

[zzaj]

At lot of talk about Scoot "getting to spots" and finishing

"getting to your spot" is only a part of the equation. Scoot was often able to get close to the rim, either using a pick or through his innate athleticism. At lower levels (like the G-league), that was enough to get you a layup. But at the NBA, your defender is either taller or about as athletic, and help defense is much smarter, longer and faster.
The result was a highly contested shot, which forced Scoot in to some very awkward finishes, and very low FG% at the rim.

It improved somewhat toward the end of the season. There are a lot of little things that will need improvement - quick change of speed and direction, hesitation and fakes, using strength and your hips to pin your defender. Things that Dame and BRoy before him did very well from day one for us. But they came in after a lot of good coaching and reps at the college level.
Ant, like Scoot, was also missing a lot of that in his first seasons. I began to worry that he was nothing but a glorified set shooter. But he has grown in to a special scorer with the ball in his hands. And while Scoot may never be the 3pt shooter Ant is, he is already a better passer, and is far stronger. I still have hope he'll be able grow in to a real threat when driving.

I attribute quite a bit of his poor at the rim finishing to exactly what you mention, and what I mention--that is, an inability to process secondary defense.

As for the passing? I still consider that jury out...he shows glimpses of incredible passing, but that is usually because of defensive lapses. He's certainly a willing passer but he almost never uses his left hand...which is a HUGE issue for the Blazer offense, as many sets involve/end with a SF or PF in the right corner at the 3pt line--Scoot is almost always going to miss that open pass on his drives.

[zzaj]

At lot of talk about Scoot "getting to spots" and finishing, shooting getting better...

IMHO, the main reason why Scoot is behind in some of these areas is because of what's between his ears.

His inability to process and respond to set defenses in particular, neutered a lot of what he does well. He slowly figured out over the course of the season the speed/strength and rotations of NBA defenses, and he began to fall back on something he's always done fairly well--non-C&S 3 pointers, which helped his 3pt% quite a bit.

It usually takes time for PGs, we all know this...and until Scoot shows the ability to process and navigate defenses more quickly he'll be a below average PG.

The Blazers 100% need to play with more pace next season. They've talked about it for years, and never have...largely because of Brandon Roy and Lillard. But Scoot/Sharpe are pace players. They play better against un-set defense than set defense. Deni too thrives in the open court and at a fast possession game, apparently.

The team needs to get stops and control the glass to do that.

They surprised me at times with their team defense. Chauncey's system seems to include a lot of on-ball pressure (for better or worse).

The rebounding is certainly a thing though. As long as Grant is on the team the Blazers will always be a poor rebounding team. Hopefully Deni and Clingan to a lesser extent make up for a little of that. Deni in particular (apparently) loves to grab and go...

[JRoy]

At lot of talk about Scoot "getting to spots" and finishing, shooting getting better...

IMHO, the main reason why Scoot is behind in some of these areas is because of what's between his ears.

His inability to process and respond to set defenses in particular, neutered a lot of what he does well. He slowly figured out over the course of the season the speed/strength and rotations of NBA defenses, and he began to fall back on something he's always done fairly well--non-C&S 3 pointers, which helped his 3pt% quite a bit.

It usually takes time for PGs, we all know this...and until Scoot shows the ability to process and navigate defenses more quickly he'll be a below average PG.

The Blazers 100% need to play with more pace next season. They've talked about it for years, and never have...largely because of Brandon Roy and Lillard. But Scoot/Sharpe are pace players. They play better against un-set defense than set defense. Deni too thrives in the open court and at a fast possession game, apparently.

The team needs to get stops and control the glass to do that.

They surprised me at times with their team defense. Chauncey's system seems to include a lot of on-ball pressure (for better or worse).

The rebounding is certainly a thing though. As long as Grant is on the team the Blazers will always be a poor rebounding team. Hopefully Deni and Clingan to a lesser extent make up for a little of that. Deni in particular (apparently) loves to grab and go...

On ball isn’t as bad as off all. Rotations are a constant source of heartburn with this team.

There is more Swiss than cheese on both sides for this team currently.

Adding Clingan and Avdija will help, but losing Brigdon will mean more ball handling by Scoot and Simons. Yuck.

[Walton1one]

The fact that POR is a horrendous shooting team (worst in the NBA last season) does not help your 19yr old PG when he drives into the paint either. Indecision for a young PG is to be expected. Scoot isn't the biggest\baddest guy on the court anymore, learning how to process NBA defenses and effectively finish drives all comes with time\age.

What else did not help?

Big men sucking at setting screens, Ayton setting ghost screens, can you even call them that?

Camara\Walker\Thybulle\Murray\Sharpe inability to consistently hit outside shots to save their lives, let alone make the defense play honest when they were out on the perimeter.

Grant\Simons propensity to go 1v1 while the rest of the team stands around and watches

Several scouts have noted that POR mgmt (Cronin) did NOTHING to help Scoot succeed LY, they did not put players around him to maximize his strengths, they even played him off ball with Simons sometimes which was ludicrous IMO.

Worth noting of course he played much better at the tail end of the year, when both Simons (in particular)\Grant were shutdown, what a surprise.

[JRoy]

The fact that POR is a horrendous shooting team (worst in the NBA last season) does not help your 19yr old PG when he drives into the paint either. Indecision for a young PG is to be expected. Scoot isn't the biggest\baddest guy on the court anymore, learning how to process NBA defenses and effectively finish drives all comes with time\age.

What else did not help?

Big men sucking at setting screens, Ayton setting ghost screens, can you even call them that?

Camara\Walker\Thybulle\Murray\Sharpe inability to consistently hit outside shots to save their lives, let alone make the defense play honest when they were out on the perimeter.

Grant\Simons propensity to go 1v1 while the rest of the team stands around and watches

Several scouts have noted that POR mgmt (Cronin) did NOTHING to help Scoot succeed LY, they did not put players around him to maximize his strengths, they even played him off ball with Simons sometimes which was ludicrous IMO.

Worth noting of course he played much better at the tail end of the year, when both Simons (in particular)\Grant were shutdown, what a surprise.

Scoot may have been less awful toward the end of the year. He could not have played much worse than his early season stinkfest.

[m0ng0]

If Grant, Simons and Ayton win us games that's bad and if they lose games? it's because they are not leaders and can't put the team on their back...its a never ending circle jerk.

[zzaj]

If Grant, Simons and Ayton win us games that's bad and if they lose games? it's because they are not leaders and can't put the team on their back...its a never ending circle jerk.

Exactly! Either way, they gotta go!

[Walton1one]

If Grant, Simons and Ayton win us games that's bad and if they lose games? it's because they are not leaders and can't put the team on their back...its a never ending circle jerk.

Well for all of their greatness, they did not win POR that many (21) games LY, but yeah, prioritizing winning meaningless games vs. 2025 draft is beyond stupidity for how this team is currently comprised.

[m0ng0]

If Grant, Simons and Ayton win us games that's bad and if they lose games? it's because they are not leaders and can't put the team on their back...its a never ending circle jerk.

Well for all of their greatness, they did not win POR that many (21) games LY, but yeah, prioritizing winning meaningless games vs. 2025 draft is beyond stupidity for how this team is currently comprised.

Where did you ever see anyone proclaim GREATNESS for any of those players...go outside get some sun