Now what?

[Walton1one]

Goodness then?

Hey man, what else Is there to talk about August?

Being an OR native, you should never not take advantage of a sunny day

[JasonStern]

Name a couple players that took big leaps after hitting the below metrics -

5+ seasons played
Age 24 or older
300+ games played
8,000+ minutes played

I am talking going from middling level starter on bad team (Ant and Ayton) to a Top-3, heck Top-4, player on a perennial playoff squad type starter.

The guy averaged 22.6ppg/5.5apg on a 52% eFG. Not a single pro-Simons person has said he was going to develop into an all-star, let alone super-star. But feel free to carry on with your red herring fallacy. And Wizenheimer, this is what a red herring fallacy is.

For those that have some level of reading comprehension:

* Simons is the best player on this team. That does not mean he is the most valuable player. It means our roster is trash. See the W-L record.

* Simons isn't that valuable. He's a smaller Jamal Crawford. The idea that he's going to return anything significant is homerism. If he could net some elite rookie contract or a lotto pick, he probably would already be moved.

* If the goal was to move Simons, which I doubt management wants to do, the best time would be closer to the trade deadline. Find a team that thinks Simons could push them over the top.

* Sharpe and Scoot haven't proven anything yet. The idea that playing them 48 minutes a game will somehow turn them into all-stars is again homerism. There is no guarantee that they aren't busts or role players. If they have breakout seasons, then you consider trading Simons. Until then, you let Scoot/Sharpe develop. And understand that most players, especially ones that didn't play 4 year college careers, take a few years to develop.

* Letting Simons walk after his contract expires, should he refuse to sign for a value contract, frees up $27M in cap space. And it gives Sharpe and Scoot time to properly develop.

* Taking on $27M in dead salary for a late 1st while giving up a 22ppg scoring guard is not how you build a winning franchise. You could probably trade Murray and cash considerations for a late 1st without taking on dead salary or losing your team's best scoring guard. The odds of a late 1st returning a player as good as Simons are under 5%. You could have to trade 20 Simons and take on at least $540M in dead salary for the chance of getting a player as good as Simons, which restarts the whole process.

* Late 1sts are massively overvalued due to some moneyball trend. Name the last time the Blazers had a successful draft pick after pick 20. Gary Trent Jr. who was traded? Simons 8 years ago? Camara doesn't count because he was drafted by another team.

* Simons is still just 25. He has years of play at his current level in him. He's not some grizzled veteran that has peaked. And he's not too old of a piece for a rebuild unless you think the Blazers are going to rebuild for another 5 years.

* We're tanking for the 4th season. As much as I want Grant moved, someone has to be the tank commander. There is zero evidence that Simons is a locker room cancer. Iron sharpens iron. Who does everyone think Scoot and Sharpe are going to go up against in practice to improve their game? A 47 year old Billups?

There are 10+ valid reasons why there is no need to panic trade Simons. If he banged your sister and you're holding a grudge, or you just don't like his style of play, that's no reason why the Blazers need to move him. If anyone wants to debate any of these points, feel free. If it's just "Simon sucks and you suck his balls" comments, the Blazers board has gone to sh*t.

[JasonStern]

I am trying to illustrate that guys making big jumps after half a decade in the league, with a ton of minutes and games played, are not things that generally happen in this league. I had to rack my brain for the above outliers (Lowry, Dipo) and I would argue that the 2-way nature of their games makes them less than idea comparisons to Simons.

Again, for the 100th time, nobody is claiming that Simons or Ayton are elite talent. Both have proven they could be starters on a playoff contender, just not lead options. Nobody is disputing this. But you have to play 5 players (I think - I know that's the limit. Not sure why any team would play less), and while overpaid - they both have PERs over 15 and are 26 or younger. You don't throw away quality role players because they aren't stars. You get stars to pair with them and just make sure that on their next contracts that they are paid accordingly.

And there is zero evidence that if a player is a bust, forcing them into an extended role somehow improves their game. If anything, getting publicly humiliated by playing players that aren't ready ruins their confidence. Do you really think Scoot having the worst +/- in NBA history made his game more confident? Some people have that dawg mentality. But others go full Ben Simmons depression.

[zzaj]

Name a couple players that took big leaps after hitting the below metrics -

5+ seasons played
Age 24 or older
300+ games played
8,000+ minutes played

I am talking going from middling level starter on bad team (Ant and Ayton) to a Top-3, heck Top-4, player on a perennial playoff squad type starter.

The guy averaged 22.6ppg/5.5apg on a 52% eFG. Not a single pro-Simons person has said he was going to develop into an all-star, let alone super-star. But feel free to carry on with your red herring fallacy. And Wizenheimer, this is what a red herring fallacy is.

For those that have some level of reading comprehension:

* Simons is the best player on this team. That does not mean he is the most valuable player. It means our roster is trash. See the W-L record.
--What does "Best" mean?


* Simons isn't that valuable. He's a smaller Jamal Crawford. The idea that he's going to return anything significant is homerism. If he could net some elite rookie contract or a lotto pick, he probably would already be moved.
--agreed


* If the goal was to move Simons, which I doubt management wants to do, the best time would be closer to the trade deadline. Find a team that thinks Simons could push them over the top.
--No real disagreement here


* Sharpe and Scoot haven't proven anything yet. The idea that playing them 48 minutes a game will somehow turn them into all-stars is again homerism. There is no guarantee that they aren't busts or role players. If they have breakout seasons, then you consider trading Simons. Until then, you let Scoot/Sharpe develop. And understand that most players, especially ones that didn't play 4 year college careers, take a few years to develop.
--Sharpe and Scoot have proven that they need playing time to develop. Neither is a good fit next to Simons.


* Letting Simons walk after his contract expires, should he refuse to sign for a value contract, frees up $27M in cap space. And it gives Sharpe and Scoot time to properly develop.
--Cap space ain't worth much to the Blazers
*

Taking on $27M in dead salary for a late 1st while giving up a 22ppg scoring guard is not how you build a winning franchise. You could probably trade Murray and cash considerations for a late 1st without taking on dead salary or losing your team's best scoring guard. The odds of a late 1st returning a player as good as Simons are under 5%. You could have to trade 20 Simons and take on at least $540M in dead salary for the chance of getting a player as good as Simons, which restarts the whole process.
--Yep, not really a fan of the idea either


* Late 1sts are massively overvalued due to some moneyball trend. Name the last time the Blazers had a successful draft pick after pick 20. Gary Trent Jr. who was traded? Simons 8 years ago? Camara doesn't count because he was drafted by another team.
--Hard disagree. Production on rookie deals will be the name of the game in the new CBA...and there have been and will continue to be good players found in the late first round. Comparing Blazer draft success in past drafts with what the NBA fiscal landscape will look like in future drafts, makes no sense.

* Simons is still just 25. He has years of play at his current level in him. He's not some grizzled veteran that has peaked. And he's not too old of a piece for a rebuild unless you think the Blazers are going to rebuild for another 5 years.
--Ask him if he's too old for a rebuild. His exit interview sure didn't seem like he wanted more sub-30 win seasons.


* We're tanking for the 4th season. As much as I want Grant moved, someone has to be the tank commander. There is zero evidence that Simons is a locker room cancer. Iron sharpens iron. Who does everyone think Scoot and Sharpe are going to go up against in practice to improve their game? A 47 year old Billups?
--I'd rather see Sharpe, Scoot and Deni look for their own shot than Grant and Simons. I disagree that a team needs a 'tank commander--sometimes inexperience and lack of talent is all you need to lose games.

There are 10+ valid reasons why there is no need to panic trade Simons. If he banged your sister and you're holding a grudge, or you just don't like his style of play, that's no reason why the Blazers need to move him. If anyone wants to debate any of these points, feel free. If it's just "Simon sucks and you suck his balls" comments, the Blazers board has gone to sh*t.
--I don't have a sister.

[dckingsfan]

I am trying to illustrate that guys making big jumps after half a decade in the league, with a ton of minutes and games played, are not things that generally happen in this league. I had to rack my brain for the above outliers (Lowry, Dipo) and I would argue that the 2-way nature of their games makes them less than idea comparisons to Simons.

Again, for the 100th time, nobody is claiming that Simons or Ayton are elite talent. Both have proven they could be starters on a playoff contender, just not lead options. Nobody is disputing this. But you have to play 5 players (I think - I know that's the limit. Not sure why any team would play less), and while overpaid - they both have PERs over 15 and are 26 or younger. You don't throw away quality role players because they aren't stars. You get stars to pair with them and just make sure that on their next contracts that they are paid accordingly.

And there is zero evidence that if a player is a bust, forcing them into an extended role somehow improves their game. If anything, getting publicly humiliated by playing players that aren't ready ruins their confidence. Do you really think Scoot having the worst +/- in NBA history made his game more confident? Some people have that dawg mentality. But others go full Ben Simmons depression.

I think it is arguable that Simmons would be a starter on an elite team. Of the 50-win teams last year, (Boston, OKC, Denver, Minnesota, Clippers, Mavericks and Knicks) I would argue he wouldn't start for any of them.

I think that Ayton would start for 2 or three of them.

But the point you make is the overpay. The other point is that you would need the 3 or 4 players in front of them. The best way to do this is to move them over time to get one of those players through the draft.

That takes luck and skill from the FO.

For Portland it needs to be a process. Don't overvalue your current players and move them for assets. If you get one (or two) of those players through the draft, then build around them. Don't build around any of the current players on this team as constructed.

[AcFunk]

New on the forum, mostly following Avdija career
..
I have to say that after following the new rebuild in DC and the way management were handling it, I think Cronins' "steps" idea is fine, and the young talent is there. The problem as I see it right now is in coaching. Chauncey seems so laid back and chill to the point it seems almost impossible for him to produce emotion and fighting spirit.
I logged and watched the entire media day interviews - and truth be told - majority players seemed lacking in spirit. Just look at DC reply to differences in coaching styles. What does it mean for a team that the new rookie calls out practices like that.. ?
I am not saying coaches should go all thib, but you have to set initial levels of effort at the start - it is lot easier to lower these further down than raising it up.
The fact they all declare they cant say / learn much from last year due to lack of data is IMO a terrible excuse for incompetence/lack of accountability. Work with the Data you do have. Improve, deduce, set minor goals/steps. Don't say - I cant learn from it..

[JRoy]

New on the forum, mostly following Avdija career
..
I have to say that after following the new rebuild in DC and the way management were handling it, I think Cronins' "steps" idea is fine, and the young talent is there. The problem as I see it right now is in coaching. Chauncy seems so laid back and chill to the point it seems almost impossible for him to produce emotion and fighting spirit.
I logged and watched the entire media day interviews - and truth be told - majority players seemed lacking in spirit. Just look at DC reply to differences in coaching styles. What does it mean for a team that the new rookie calls out practices like that.. ?
I am not saying coaches should go all thib, but you have to set initial levels of effort at the start - it is lot easier to lower these further down than raising it up.
The fact they all declare they cant say / learn much from last year due to lack of data is IMO a terrible excuse for incompetence/lack of accountability. Work with the Data you do have. Improve, deduce, set minor goals/steps. Don't say - I cant learn from it..

The team lacks leadership, among other things.

[GEE]

New on the forum, mostly following Avdija career
..
I have to say that after following the new rebuild in DC and the way management were handling it, I think Cronins' "steps" idea is fine, and the young talent is there. The problem as I see it right now is in coaching. Chauncy seems so laid back and chill to the point it seems almost impossible for him to produce emotion and fighting spirit.
I logged and watched the entire media day interviews - and truth be told - majority players seemed lacking in spirit. Just look at DC reply to differences in coaching styles. What does it mean for a team that the new rookie calls out practices like that.. ?
I am not saying coaches should go all thib, but you have to set initial levels of effort at the start - it is lot easier to lower these further down than raising it up.
The fact they all declare they cant say / learn much from last year due to lack of data is IMO a terrible excuse for incompetence/lack of accountability. Work with the Data you do have. Improve, deduce, set minor goals/steps. Don't say - I cant learn from it..

The team lacks leadership, among other things.

I disagree... kinda. I think saying the team lacks leadership is premature, or to be determined. I also think (unlike most everybody) that we do have the roster to compete at least as a middle of the pack team, but it will be up to Chauncey now.

I was glad to hear that Chauncey has revamped his coaching staff, because I believe his talents will be evaluated as much, or moreso than any player on this team this season and he knows it. We obviously tanked the last two years, so my critique of Chauncey has been minimal to this point. This year, quite the opposite. I will be curious to see what Chauncey can do, now that we have more than one guy over 6/9, no more 6'3 Sf's, and no real superstars but rather a platoon or band of brothers. The haters will always hate, and should maybe just go root for for someone else.............. I love this current team.

The Red and Black ae back......... Red Hot and Rollin'........ RIP CITY BABY!

[BlazersBroncos]

New on the forum, mostly following Avdija career
..
I have to say that after following the new rebuild in DC and the way management were handling it, I think Cronins' "steps" idea is fine, and the young talent is there. The problem as I see it right now is in coaching. Chauncy seems so laid back and chill to the point it seems almost impossible for him to produce emotion and fighting spirit.
I logged and watched the entire media day interviews - and truth be told - majority players seemed lacking in spirit. Just look at DC reply to differences in coaching styles. What does it mean for a team that the new rookie calls out practices like that.. ?
I am not saying coaches should go all thib, but you have to set initial levels of effort at the start - it is lot easier to lower these further down than raising it up.
The fact they all declare they cant say / learn much from last year due to lack of data is IMO a terrible excuse for incompetence/lack of accountability. Work with the Data you do have. Improve, deduce, set minor goals/steps. Don't say - I cant learn from it..

The team lacks leadership, among other things.

I disagree... kinda. I think saying the team lacks leadership is premature, or to be determined. I also think (unlike most everybody) that we do have the roster to compete at least as a middle of the pack team, but it will be up to Chauncey now.

I was glad to hear that Chauncey has revamped his coaching staff, because I believe his talents will be evaluated as much, or moreso than any player on this team this season and he knows it. We obviously tanked the last two years, so my critique of Chauncey has been minimal to this point. This year, quite the opposite. I will be curious to see what Chauncey can do, now that we have more than one guy over 6/9, no more 6'3 Sf's, and no real superstars but rather a platoon or band of brothers. The haters will always hate, and should maybe just go root for for someone else.............. I love this current team.

The Red and Black ae back......... Red Hot and Rollin'........ RIP CITY BABY!

I am wildly interested in how many wins you think this team gets this season.

[Norm2953]

I think the over/under centers around 25 wins.

There is some talent on the roster and perhaps if they played in the east, they'd get some wins
against Detroit, Charlotte, Washington and Brooklyn this season.

The bulk of the really bad teams are in the east. There is some age in some western conference
teams with both LA teams and Phoenix. Some talented young teams on the rise in the west.

I do think if things went really well, the team could reach 35 wins as their ceiling. That would require
major progress in the games of Scoot/Sharpe along with the return to health of TL and continued progress
of Deni. Far too many IFs but there is some talent for the team is not relying on the CJ Eleby's of the
world to play some minutes for them this season

[JRoy]

I think the over/under centers around 25 wins.

There is some talent on the roster and perhaps if they played in the east, they'd get some wins
against Detroit, Charlotte, Washington and Brooklyn this season.

The bulk of the really bad teams are in the east. There is some age in some western conference
teams with both LA teams and Phoenix. Some talented young teams on the rise in the west.

I do think if things went really well, the team could reach 35 wins as their ceiling. That would require
major progress in the games of Scoot/Sharpe along with the return to health of TL and continued progress
of Deni. Far too many IFs but there is some talent for the team is not relying on the CJ Eleby's of the
world to play some minutes for them this season

35 wins would be a catastrophe.

This team needs top end talent, which is not presently on the roster. A 10th pick instead of a top 3 pick would be an awful set back.

We need to sit back and accept the suck.

Hopefully SS and Clingan deliver.

[BlazersBroncos]

I think the over/under centers around 25 wins.

There is some talent on the roster and perhaps if they played in the east, they'd get some wins
against Detroit, Charlotte, Washington and Brooklyn this season.

The bulk of the really bad teams are in the east. There is some age in some western conference
teams with both LA teams and Phoenix. Some talented young teams on the rise in the west.

I do think if things went really well, the team could reach 35 wins as their ceiling. That would require
major progress in the games of Scoot/Sharpe along with the return to health of TL and continued progress
of Deni. Far too many IFs but there is some talent for the team is not relying on the CJ Eleby's of the
world to play some minutes for them this season

35 wins would be a catastrophe.

This team needs top end talent, which is not presently on the roster. A 10th pick instead of a top 3 pick would be an awful set back.

We need to sit back and accept the suck.

Hopefully SS and Clingan deliver.

We dont need top end talent. Just look at our depth! Just look at it!

When has the NBA shown that top end talent run the league and depth basically means nothing in comparison?

[Norm2953]

I think the over/under centers around 25 wins.

There is some talent on the roster and perhaps if they played in the east, they'd get some wins
against Detroit, Charlotte, Washington and Brooklyn this season.

The bulk of the really bad teams are in the east. There is some age in some western conference
teams with both LA teams and Phoenix. Some talented young teams on the rise in the west.

I do think if things went really well, the team could reach 35 wins as their ceiling. That would require
major progress in the games of Scoot/Sharpe along with the return to health of TL and continued progress
of Deni. Far too many IFs but there is some talent for the team is not relying on the CJ Eleby's of the
world to play some minutes for them this season

35 wins would be a catastrophe.

This team needs top end talent, which is not presently on the roster. A 10th pick instead of a top 3 pick would be an awful set back.

We need to sit back and accept the suck.

Hopefully SS and Clingan deliver.

Atlanta won 36 games and ended up with the first pick.

It would take everything going well along with no major injuries to get to 35 wins in a strong western conference

I could see both SS/Scoot once against struggling, which would perhaps lead to Portland taking
Edgecombe or the French PG as their FRP. That would delay any progress Portland could make until
that new player has had a chance at adjusting to the league assuming he can play.

There are no certainties in any draft for nobody really knows for example if Flagg will be another super elite
player or another Scottie Pippen. Those super elite guys like Victor only come along every 10-15 years and
most of the time, teams end up drafting really good but not the super elite guys.

Last 5 top picks in the draft are Edwards, Cunningham, Banchero, Victor and now Risacher.

[Walton1one]

I think the over/under centers around 25 wins.

There is some talent on the roster and perhaps if they played in the east, they'd get some wins
against Detroit, Charlotte, Washington and Brooklyn this season.

The bulk of the really bad teams are in the east. There is some age in some western conference
teams with both LA teams and Phoenix. Some talented young teams on the rise in the west.

I do think if things went really well, the team could reach 35 wins as their ceiling. That would require
major progress in the games of Scoot/Sharpe along with the return to health of TL and continued progress
of Deni. Far too many IFs but there is some talent for the team is not relying on the CJ Eleby's of the
world to play some minutes for them this season

35 wins would be a catastrophe.

This team needs top end talent, which is not presently on the roster. A 10th pick instead of a top 3 pick would be an awful set back.

We need to sit back and accept the suck.

Hopefully SS and Clingan deliver.

Atlanta won 36 games and ended up with the first pick.

It would take everything going well along with no major injuries to get to 35 wins in a strong western conference

I could see both SS/Scoot once against struggling, which would perhaps lead to Portland taking
Edgecombe or the French PG as their FRP. That would delay any progress Portland could make until
that new player has had a chance at adjusting to the league assuming he can play.

There are no certainties in any draft for nobody really knows for example if Flagg will be another super elite
player or another Scottie Pippen. Those super elite guys like Victor only come along every 10-15 years and
most of the time, teams end up drafting really good but not the super elite guys.

Last 5 top picks in the draft are Edwards, Cunningham, Banchero, Victor and now Risacher.

I mean ATL odds of getting #1 were 3%, highly unlikely that will happen again, let alone in back-to-back years. While there is no guarantee that you will get a franchise\all-star level player with a Top 5 pick, the odds are in your favor, that that type of player IS there to be had.

I did a quick look at past drafts (2012-2022), and outside of one bad year (2013), there has been an average of 2-4 players taken in the top 10 that are\could be considered as franchise\all-star caliber players.

42% of top 5 picks have ended up as franchise\all star caliber players
27% of top 5 picks have ended up as busts
The remainder (31%) are in the category of rotational level\journeyman players

27.3% of all top 10 picks have been franchise\all-star level caliber
48.2% of all top 10 players have been good\average\8-year journeyman
24.5% of all top 10 players are bust (top 5) out of league in 7 years or less

77% of the players who "hit" as a franchise\all star players (taken in the top 10) were taken in the top 5, so yeah, the higher you pick, the better odds you have to get such a player, but the risk of picking a bust (27%) is still significant, and that only climbs higher from #6 and on.

From players chose #6-10:
7- 12.7% franchise\all star caliber
32 - 58.2% good\average\journeyman
16 - 29.1% bust (didn't last 8yrs in league, or if top 5, journeyman\bench player at best)

It is interesting that in a relatively strong draft (like 2018/2019), as 2025 is rumored to be, the odds of getting such a player are greatly improved.

I just did a relatively quick look, there could be players that I missed or misidentified, in terms of how I view their impact however it suits the purpose of giving a snapshot of what the chances are in a normal draft of what a teams' odds are to get that "franchise or all-star level type o player". It also further strengthens the reasons for WHY you want to be picking in the top 5, as opposed to picking outside of it and why you want to maximize your odds to BE in those top 5 picks.

F - FRANCHISE\STAR PLAYER TAKEN IN TOP 10
B - PLAYER TAKEN IN TOP 5 THAT GROSSLY UNDERPERFORMED
0 - PLAYERS TAKEN OUTSIDE TOP 10 WHO ARE FRANCHISE\ALL STAR LEVEL PLAYERS
2 - PLAYERS TAKEN IN 2ND ROUND WHO ARE FRANCHISE\ALL STAR LEVEL PLAYERS

2012 TOP 10
F - ANTHONY DAVIS(1), BRADLEY BEAL(3), LILLARD
B - MKG, ROBINSON
O - none
2 - DRAYMOND GREEN, MIDDLETON

2013 TOP 10
F - none
B - BENNETT, LEN
O - ANTETOKOUNMPO, GOBERT
2 - none

2014 TOP 10
F - EMBID(3), RANDLE
B - PARKER, EXUM
O - LAVINE
2 - JOKIC

2015 TOP 10
F - TOWNS(1), PORZINGIS(4)
B - HEZONJA, OKAFOR
O - BOOKER, TURNER
2 - none

2016 TOP 10
F - INGRAM(2), BROWN(3)
B - SIMMONS, BENDER, DUNN
O - SABONIS, SIAKAM, DEJOUNTE MURRAY
2 -none

2017 TOP 10
F - TATUM(3), FOX(5), MARKANNEN
B - FULTZ, JOSH JACKSON
O - MONK, DONOVAN MITCHELL, ADEBAYO, JARRETT ALLEN, ANUNOBY
2- none

2018 TOP 10
F - DONCIC(3), JAREN JACKSON(4), TRAE YOUNG(5), MIKAL BRIDGES
B - none
O - SGA, PORTER JR,
2 - none

2019 TOP 10
F - WILLIAMSON(1), MORANT(2), BARRETT(3), GARLAND(5), WHITE
B - none
O - none
2 - none

2020 TOP 10
F - EDWARDS (1), BALL (3)
B - WISEMAN
O - MAXEY
2 - none

2021 TOP 10
F - CUNNINGHAM(1), MOBLEY (3), BARNES (4), KUMINGA, WAGNER,
B - none
O - SENGUN, MURPHY, JALEN JOHNSON,
2 - none

2022 TOP 10
F - BANCHERO (1), HOLMGREN(2)
B - none
O - JALEN WILLIAMS,
2 - none

[GEE]

The team lacks leadership, among other things.

I disagree... kinda. I think saying the team lacks leadership is premature, or to be determined. I also think (unlike most everybody) that we do have the roster to compete at least as a middle of the pack team, but it will be up to Chauncey now.

I was glad to hear that Chauncey has revamped his coaching staff, because I believe his talents will be evaluated as much, or moreso than any player on this team this season and he knows it. We obviously tanked the last two years, so my critique of Chauncey has been minimal to this point. This year, quite the opposite. I will be curious to see what Chauncey can do, now that we have more than one guy over 6/9, no more 6'3 Sf's, and no real superstars but rather a platoon or band of brothers. The haters will always hate, and should maybe just go root for for someone else.............. I love this current team.

The Red and Black ae back......... Red Hot and Rollin'........ RIP CITY BABY!

I am wildly interested in how many wins you think this team gets this season.

Like Norm just said, too many IFs to really give any kind of prediction. The main one being Chauncey and his new and improved coaching staff. I think he will be the biggest determining factor this season, for better or worse. I Love the Players we have, and to hear RW3 has been going 5 on 5 for many weeks erases what WAS my biggest concern . How is this not a solid team?

Simons / Scoot
Thybulle(thinking of B.Bowen) / Sharpe
Grant / Deni
RW3 / Reath
Ayton / ClingON

Players 11-15 are all studs as well. It will be up to Chauncey at this point IMHO. RIP CITY!

[JRoy]

I don’t see this team winning 30 games with Scoot and Simons playing a lot of minutes.

[Norm2953]

The team does have some talent for if TL is indeed ready to play, he could help a lot of teams

https://www.si.com/fannation/nba/fastbreak/jayson-tatum-reacts-to-robert-williams-news-trail-blazers-celtics-nba

[GEE]

The team does have some talent for if TL is indeed ready to play, he could help a lot of teams

https://www.si.com/fannation/nba/fastbreak/jayson-tatum-reacts-to-robert-williams-news-trail-blazers-celtics-nba

He could also help OUR team. If RW3 and Ayton were paired together (inside & outside pairing), with back ups in Reath, Camara and ClingOn (also a inside/outside pairing). Beyond that we have two solid backup guards to back up Simons and Scoot. Grant, Deni and Thybulle are all very capable wings that can IMO, compete with most any team in this league. Scoot, Sharpe and ClingOn are obviosly green as can be thus far, but by the end of this regular season......... who knows how big of a jump they will make.

Point is, I have no desire to trade any of our guys,.... I really like all of them 1-15+. But If there is an upgrade we can make, of course I'd say good luck to ya'.

[dckingsfan]

The team lacks leadership, among other things.

I disagree... kinda. I think saying the team lacks leadership is premature, or to be determined. I also think (unlike most everybody) that we do have the roster to compete at least as a middle of the pack team, but it will be up to Chauncey now.

I was glad to hear that Chauncey has revamped his coaching staff, because I believe his talents will be evaluated as much, or moreso than any player on this team this season and he knows it. We obviously tanked the last two years, so my critique of Chauncey has been minimal to this point. This year, quite the opposite. I will be curious to see what Chauncey can do, now that we have more than one guy over 6/9, no more 6'3 Sf's, and no real superstars but rather a platoon or band of brothers. The haters will always hate, and should maybe just go root for for someone else.............. I love this current team.

The Red and Black ae back......... Red Hot and Rollin'........ RIP CITY BABY!

I am wildly interested in how many wins you think this team gets this season.

Waiting for the response...

[dckingsfan]

35 wins would be a catastrophe.

This team needs top end talent, which is not presently on the roster. A 10th pick instead of a top 3 pick would be an awful set back.

We need to sit back and accept the suck.

Hopefully SS and Clingan deliver.

Atlanta won 36 games and ended up with the first pick.

It would take everything going well along with no major injuries to get to 35 wins in a strong western conference

I could see both SS/Scoot once against struggling, which would perhaps lead to Portland taking
Edgecombe or the French PG as their FRP. That would delay any progress Portland could make until
that new player has had a chance at adjusting to the league assuming he can play.

There are no certainties in any draft for nobody really knows for example if Flagg will be another super elite
player or another Scottie Pippen. Those super elite guys like Victor only come along every 10-15 years and
most of the time, teams end up drafting really good but not the super elite guys.

Last 5 top picks in the draft are Edwards, Cunningham, Banchero, Victor and now Risacher.

I mean ATL odds of getting #1 were 3%, highly unlikely that will happen again, let alone in back-to-back years. While there is no guarantee that you will get a franchise\all-star level player with a Top 5 pick, the odds are in your favor, that that type of player IS there to be had.

I did a quick look at past drafts (2012-2022), and outside of one bad year (2013), there has been an average of 2-4 players taken in the top 10 that are\could be considered as franchise\all-star caliber players.

42% of top 5 picks have ended up as franchise\all star caliber players
27% of top 5 picks have ended up as busts
The remainder (31%) are in the category of rotational level\journeyman players

27.3% of all top 10 picks have been franchise\all-star level caliber
48.2% of all top 10 players have been good\average\8-year journeyman
24.5% of all top 10 players are bust (top 5) out of league in 7 years or less

77% of the players who "hit" as a franchise\all star players (taken in the top 10) were taken in the top 5, so yeah, the higher you pick, the better odds you have to get such a player, but the risk of picking a bust (27%) is still significant, and that only climbs higher from #6 and on.

From players chose #6-10:
7- 12.7% franchise\all star caliber
32 - 58.2% good\average\journeyman
16 - 29.1% bust (didn't last 8yrs in league, or if top 5, journeyman\bench player at best)

It is interesting that in a relatively strong draft (like 2018/2019), as 2025 is rumored to be, the odds of getting such a player are greatly improved.

I just did a relatively quick look, there could be players that I missed or misidentified, in terms of how I view their impact however it suits the purpose of giving a snapshot of what the chances are in a normal draft of what a teams' odds are to get that "franchise or all-star level type o player". It also further strengthens the reasons for WHY you want to be picking in the top 5, as opposed to picking outside of it and why you want to maximize your odds to BE in those top 5 picks.

F - FRANCHISE\STAR PLAYER TAKEN IN TOP 10
B - PLAYER TAKEN IN TOP 5 THAT GROSSLY UNDERPERFORMED
0 - PLAYERS TAKEN OUTSIDE TOP 10 WHO ARE FRANCHISE\ALL STAR LEVEL PLAYERS
2 - PLAYERS TAKEN IN 2ND ROUND WHO ARE FRANCHISE\ALL STAR LEVEL PLAYERS

2012 TOP 10
F - ANTHONY DAVIS(1), BRADLEY BEAL(3), LILLARD
B - MKG, ROBINSON
O - none
2 - DRAYMOND GREEN, MIDDLETON

2013 TOP 10
F - none
B - BENNETT, LEN
O - ANTETOKOUNMPO, GOBERT
2 - none

2014 TOP 10
F - EMBID(3), RANDLE
B - PARKER, EXUM
O - LAVINE
2 - JOKIC

2015 TOP 10
F - TOWNS(1), PORZINGIS(4)
B - HEZONJA, OKAFOR
O - BOOKER, TURNER
2 - none

2016 TOP 10
F - INGRAM(2), BROWN(3)
B - SIMMONS, BENDER, DUNN
O - SABONIS, SIAKAM, DEJOUNTE MURRAY
2 -none

2017 TOP 10
F - TATUM(3), FOX(5), MARKANNEN
B - FULTZ, JOSH JACKSON
O - MONK, DONOVAN MITCHELL, ADEBAYO, JARRETT ALLEN, ANUNOBY
2- none

2018 TOP 10
F - DONCIC(3), JAREN JACKSON(4), TRAE YOUNG(5), MIKAL BRIDGES
B - none
O - SGA, PORTER JR,
2 - none

2019 TOP 10
F - WILLIAMSON(1), MORANT(2), BARRETT(3), GARLAND(5), WHITE
B - none
O - none
2 - none

2020 TOP 10
F - EDWARDS (1), BALL (3)
B - WISEMAN
O - MAXEY
2 - none

2021 TOP 10
F - CUNNINGHAM(1), MOBLEY (3), BARNES (4), KUMINGA, WAGNER,
B - none
O - SENGUN, MURPHY, JALEN JOHNSON,
2 - none

2022 TOP 10
F - BANCHERO (1), HOLMGREN(2)
B - none
O - JALEN WILLIAMS,
2 - none

Nice research - helpful regardless of looking at how the draft will play out.

But one point is clear. The likelihood of lightning striking twice is well, just that.