Official Offseason Thread 9.0: The Long Road to October

[jezzerinho]

None of the above really refutes my point, which is that - as a high usage 2nd year Point Forward - Paolo's efficiency is in line.

Should Paolo be so high usage and forced to be the initiator? That's a different question and I think we both agree on the answer.

I'd have had Franz as our best player up to the playoffs, when I think Paolo really put a strong case forward that its him. To say that his stellar play was just a blip (or due to him feasting on a favourable matchup) is very churlish, imo.

[pepe1991]

None of the above really refutes my point, which is that - as a high usage 2nd year Point Forward - Paolo's efficiency is in line.

Should Paolo be so high usage and forced to be the initiator? That's a different question and I think we both agree on the answer.

I'd have had Franz as our best player up to the playoffs, when I think Paolo really put a strong case forward that its him. To say that his stellar play was just a blip (or due to him feasting on a favourable matchup) is very churlish, imo.

In line with minus 6'5 guard stars, not in line with forward stars.

I don't think his playoff performances should be ignored, but I think people overrate it. In reality, he still was just 55,4% TS player in playoffs, despite wet mid range, despite wet 3 point shot.
Franz would probably miss water in middle of an ocean while sitting on small boat- and had 54% TS

Paolo's efficiency isn't just problematic through TS%, it's way more problematic through eFG, where he is 5% below league's average ( TS% is closer due high FT rate).


But to understand how non of this is normal, this is list of all nba players ( 40 games played minimum) with usage over 25% and TS below 55%.



This is not good list to be part of. Banchero is only one who was on playoff team. Players who eat that much of offensive cake simply need to be more effective, or simply aren't worth that usage.


Probably answer to this problem lies in this:

as a high usage 2nd year Point Forward

In playoffs he had 4 apg on 5 TO. In regular season he gets 5,4 apg on 3,0 TO. We do this because we don't have PG, nor have any interest into getting one, Paolo would probably be better ( but with less well rounded numbers) if he can be used as scoring treat first, passer second.

But due fact we live in Lebron influenced era, every star feels need to "round" their box score.

[pepe1991]

Franz

[jezzerinho]

Franz

Well, I think we can all agree that Glass-Half-Empty Pepe is back.

Try finding some supportive stats for once, dude. Noone wants to spend the long offseason having their enthusiasm for the coming season sucked out of them.

[pepe1991]

Franz

Well, I think we can all agree that Glass-Half-Empty Pepe is back.

Try finding some supportive stats for once, dude. Noone wants to spend the long offseason having their enthusiasm for the coming season sucked out of them.

this is from GB ,literally last post.

[jezzerinho]

Franz

Well, I think we can all agree that Glass-Half-Empty Pepe is back.

Try finding some supportive stats for once, dude. Noone wants to spend the long offseason having their enthusiasm for the coming season sucked out of them.

this is from GB ,literally last post.

So what?

[drsd]

I don't understand why there is a discussion. It is clear that for Orlando to win more games it is the offense that must improve. And that that means its two best players must dramatically improve their efficiencies.

That is not just improvising FG% (or eFG%). It is also about taking higher efficiency shots.

Yes the Magic was 26th in 3-ptFG%. Yes the was 26th in ppg.
It's this: The Magic was 23rd in the league last year in NBA Team Offensive Efficiency. The worst team to make the playoffs.


As an aside and off-topic a little bit, the Magic was #1 in the league last year in FTA per FGA. That's wild. I cannot recall any of us noting that.

[pepe1991]

Well, I think we can all agree that Glass-Half-Empty Pepe is back.

Try finding some supportive stats for once, dude. Noone wants to spend the long offseason having their enthusiasm for the coming season sucked out of them.

this is from GB ,literally last post.

So what?

Is there anything else to post or write? I mean, pretty much only activity on forum until season starts are endless debates. Feels like perfect place to post just about anything Magic related.

[drsd]

Is there anything else to post or write?

Yes there is:

Watch on YouTube

[jezzerinho]

Is there anything else to post or write?

Yes there is:

Watch on YouTube

Really unsure which one winds me up more.

[jezzerinho]

I don't understand why there is a discussion. It is clear that for Orlando to win more games it is the offense that must improve. And that that means its two best players must dramatically improve their efficiencies.

That is not just improvising FG% (or eFG%). It is also about taking higher efficiency shots.

Yes the Magic was 26th in 3-ptFG%. Yes the was 26th in ppg.
It's this: The Magic was 23rd in the league last year in NBA Team Offensive Efficiency. The worst team to make the playoffs.


As an aside and off-topic a little bit, the Magic was #1 in the league last year in FTA per FGA. That's wild. I cannot recall any of us noting that.

You make it sound like the answer is to shout "Be Better!!!" at Franz and Paolo.

The answer is better role designation, better fitting roster and better offensive coaching.

The reason TS% is so correlated to usage is that when your team is able to avoid running many offensive sets that result in poor shots/spots for your star players, efficiency goes way up.

How do you do that?

Set the damn table. Have alternatives that defences have to respect. Have somebody who can read opponent tendencies and pick the right play.

Do that and Franz/Paolo become way more efficient because their usage will drop by all the boneheaded forcefed hero plays, in favour of higher outcome team plays.

Its.the opposite of putting the blame on their shoulders and telling them to get better. Its replacing their low outcome plays they probably never wanted to take anyway, in favour of a good play from someone else or of a tablesetter putting them in better spots.

[anothermagicfan]

So with talking about PB below average efficiency for such high usage I ask this- who else on the magic roster last season or this upcoming season should have the ball in there hands more than PB or Franz? Is there any player that we currently have capable of being a more efficient scorer on that level of usage?

[jezzerinho]

So with talking about PB below average efficiency for such high usage I ask this- who else on the magic roster last season or this upcoming season should have the ball in there hands more than PB or Franz? Is there any player that we currently have capable of being a more efficient scorer on that level of usage?

First I would say you dont need anyone on our team with that level of usage. Theyre so young, we're better moving the ball and having players move offball till we get an opening. Spread the load somewhat till you get Paolo and Franz down a little.

Ideally we would have signed a PG sometime in the past 2 seasons, but we didnt. KCP isnt goint to be a high usage guy and Suggs up to now hasnt been ready for the responsibility.

So its split the load. Carter's usage dropped a fair bit last season, which i dont think was a positive thing.

[RichCollab]

I for one feel great about the position we are in.

Breakdown on where we need to see improvement:

Paolo: efficiency
Franz: Shooting
Suggs: Consistency
JI: Minutes
WCJ: Health and confidence
Black and Jett: Contributing
KCP: Team guard play
Moe: Team defense
Cole: shape up or ship out

[anothermagicfan]

So with talking about PB below average efficiency for such high usage I ask this- who else on the magic roster last season or this upcoming season should have the ball in there hands more than PB or Franz? Is there any player that we currently have capable of being a more efficient scorer on that level of usage?

First I would say you dont need anyone on our team with that level of usage. Theyre so young, we're better moving the ball and having players move offball till we get an opening. Spread the load somewhat till you get Paolo and Franz down a little.

Ideally we would have signed a PG sometime in the past 2 seasons, but we didnt. KCP isnt goint to be a high usage guy and Suggs up to now hasnt been ready for the responsibility.

So its split the load. Carter's usage dropped a fair bit last season, which i dont think was a positive thing.

That's pretty much my assumption as well. I was mainly curious about others opinions on this as it's become the point of this conversation for the last few days. Only thing is I'm not sold on WCJ. I don't have a ton of confidence in him. He has some good games and he has some bad games and then he's out for 20 or so games a year.

I think this season is about fine tuning exactly who fits and works with PB/Franz/Suggs and who is replaceable with a better player via trade.

Obviously we need a capable pg to facilitate for us and lighten the load for our big forwards. We also need better 3 point shooting which I think we've been working on addressing. My other want is a more dominant center. I don't hate our 3 headed trio down there with some JI mixed in but id prefer to have 2 of the 3 centers consolidated into a more well rounded player. All 3 of our centers have clear strengths and clear weaknesses. I want 1 guy that starts and finishes games at 30 mpg that doesn't hurt either side of the ball. Maybe I want a lot lol

[thelead]

Franz

People want to bury their heads in the sand like it isn’t an issue for a SF in 2024. We gave this guy a max contract. He needs to get back up to at least 34-35% from deep.

[VFX]

We always do this with the young guys.

Is Paolo super efficient? No.
Can he be better? Yes.

We have answered the major questions with his efficiency. We have no true point guard. This is why I gave the FO a “C” with their offseason. Anyone that is a fan of Paolo/Franz should have at the bare minimum expected them to get a PG with a positive resume of any kind.

It isn’t due to the fact that people aren’t expecting Paolo to become more efficient individually. It’s the system that is at fault.

You can’t look at a second year player and say “this dude has horrible efficiency” without understanding why that is the case within the context of the offense being run.

Franz needs to get better from outside. Period.
Paolo needs to get the ball in better positions instead of in isolation 20 feet from the basket.

Both of these tasks are more difficult without a real point guard in 2023-24 and 2024-25. That’s just fact. Adding KCP and resigning Goga/isaac/Mo/Gary isn’t a solution. We need to stop pretending the offense will be exponentially better outside of individual development.

You want to make a case for Paolo’s inefficiency and TS%, then you should be looking at the FO and Mosely.

[Bensational]

None of the above really refutes my point, which is that - as a high usage 2nd year Point Forward - Paolo's efficiency is in line.

In line with minus 6'5 guard stars, not in line with forward stars.

I don't think his playoff performances should be ignored, but I think people overrate it. In reality, he still was just 55,4% TS player in playoffs, despite wet mid range, despite wet 3 point shot.

Yeah, Paolo's efficiency is in line with guards, because his game starts from the perimeter and he creates shots instead of just being a finisher.

You need to look at the numbers of other guys in the playoffs.

Paolo: 33.2% USG, 55.4% TS, 51% EFG

Luka: 32.4% USG, 55.6% TS, 51.4% EFG
Tatum: 28% USG, 54.9% TS, 48% EFG

Those numbers were good enough to help both teams reach the finals, and one team win a championship.

Then you've got guys like Durant, Booker and Lillard who have TS%'s of 65% and higher, but their net rtg is -13, so they were shooting well whilst getting blown out.

Jalen Williams, another 2nd year guy, dropped to 22% USG, 54.4% TS% and 51.6% EFG

For his first time in the playoffs as the #1 option, Paolo is right where he needs to be and he has loads of time to grow into his game. Same with Franz and Suggs.

The real gulf in efficiency difference is between Gary Harris, who is at the end of that list in both USG and TS% with 8% USG and 43% TS% from our starting SG, while JRue and White were 14-18% USG and 61% TS for Boston.

[anothermagicfan]

None of the above really refutes my point, which is that - as a high usage 2nd year Point Forward - Paolo's efficiency is in line.

In line with minus 6'5 guard stars, not in line with forward stars.

I don't think his playoff performances should be ignored, but I think people overrate it. In reality, he still was just 55,4% TS player in playoffs, despite wet mid range, despite wet 3 point shot.

Yeah, Paolo's efficiency is in line with guards, because his game starts from the perimeter and he creates shots instead of just being a finisher.

You need to look at the numbers of other guys in the playoffs.

Paolo: 33.2% USG, 55.4% TS, 51% EFG

Luka: 32.4% USG, 55.6% TS, 51.4% EFG
Tatum: 28% USG, 54.9% TS, 48% EFG

Those numbers were good enough to help both teams reach the finals, and one team win a championship.

Then you've got guys like Durant, Booker and Lillard who have TS%'s of 65% and higher, but their net rtg is -13, so they were shooting well whilst getting blown out.

Jalen Williams, another 2nd year guy, dropped to 22% USG, 54.4% TS% and 51.6% EFG

For his first time in the playoffs as the #1 option, Paolo is right where he needs to be and he has loads of time to grow into his game. Same with Franz and Suggs.

The real gulf in efficiency difference is between Gary Harris, who is at the end of that list in both USG and TS% with 8% USG and 43% TS% from our starting SG, while JRue and White were 14-18% USG and 61% TS for Boston.

KCPs #s compared to Harris?

[Bensational]

KCPs #s compared to Harris?

His playoff numbers weren’t great. Worse than Paolo, Franz and Suggs with 53% TS% on 10% USG.

Still +2 USG and +10% TS upgrade over Harris.