Curious to see how good or bad

[dckingsfan]

He for sure is our best player. He and Grant are the only guys on this roster that would start on a contender.

Blazers do have 1 players on the roster who actually played in the NBA finals... in fact he STARTED on that team.

You’re right, but it’s hard to put Rob into any discussion with his injuries.

When healthy he is a nice 5th starter for a contender depending on the roster construction.

Yup, or another way to look at it...

Code: Select all

Year       MP
2018-19    283
2019-20    388
2020-21    985
2021-22   1804
2022-23    824
2023-24    119

Compare that against Deni (for example)

Code: Select all

Season     MP
2020-21   1257
2021-22   1984
2022-23   2020
2023-24   2257

[tester551]

Blazers do have 1 players on the roster who actually played in the NBA finals... in fact he STARTED on that team.

You’re right, but it’s hard to put Rob into any discussion with his injuries.

When healthy he is a nice 5th starter for a contender depending on the roster construction.

Yup, or another way to look at it...

Code: Select all

Year       MP
2018-19    283
2019-20    388
2020-21    985
2021-22   1804
2022-23    824
2023-24    119

Compare that against Deni (for example)

Code: Select all

Season     MP
2020-21   1257
2021-22   1984
2022-23   2020
2023-24   2257

I didn't intend to reference RWIII. I don't consider him a full-time starter. He started 19 games out of 56 playoff games played and averaged <20 minutes per game.

Ayton has started all 45 games he's played in the playoffs, playing close to 30 minutes per game. He started all 6 games of the finals in '21.

[dckingsfan]

You’re right, but it’s hard to put Rob into any discussion with his injuries.

When healthy he is a nice 5th starter for a contender depending on the roster construction.

Yup, or another way to look at it...

Code: Select all

Year       MP
2018-19    283
2019-20    388
2020-21    985
2021-22   1804
2022-23    824
2023-24    119

Compare that against Deni (for example)

Code: Select all

Season     MP
2020-21   1257
2021-22   1984
2022-23   2020
2023-24   2257

I didn't intend to reference RWIII. I don't consider him a full-time starter. He started 19 games out of 56 playoff games played and averaged <20 minutes per game.

Ayton has started all 45 games he's played in the playoffs, playing close to 30 minutes per game. He started all 6 games of the finals in '21.

Gotcha... especially if he could bounce back to his previous levels.

Code: Select all

Year      WS/48   VORP
2018-19   0.128   1.2
2019-20   0.121   0.7
2020-21   0.191   1.7
2021-22   0.203   2.1
2022-23   0.147   1.5
2023-24   0.106   1.0

[GEE]

To see the potential of this team is hard with the history of injuries and the youth of Sharpe and Scoot, but RW3 took all of last year off, having available to him and likely getting the top medical rehab available on earth. Scoot and Sharpe will at least be one year older and possibly much more mature after being humbled some by having a year of the NBA grind under their belts.

- The wing depth we are likely to have next year, should be a nice problem for Chauncey to have next year... IF WE RUN. Grant, Thybulle, Deni, Sharpe, Camara looks great to me.

- How much help the addition of TL and ClingOn, to Ayton and Reath will be the biggest variable to the Blazers season, and I also think our guard/ball handler rotations is somthing I really like as well w/ Simons, Scoot, Graham and Banton.

- A trade using longer term projects like Murray and Rupert, along with a future pick or two for just one more high-quality BIGMAN would be my biggest hope going forward. With the right move for a Mark Williams (Or Better) level Bigman, and I think we'd be loaded with enough talent to compete with just about anyone in the league... If (And only If) Chauncey can exceed some expectations, which I think is entirely possible.

- No idea how many wins, but I'd expect to see some really good TEAM basketball this season, and if these guys can stay together for a couple years... an OKC level of rise wouldn't shock me one bit. Time will tell.

RIP CITY!!!

[BlazersBroncos]

- No idea how many wins, but I'd expect to see some really good TEAM basketball this season, and if these guys can stay together for a couple years... an OKC level of rise wouldn't shock me one bit. Time will tell.

Who on this team is going to be our SGA / Chet / Jalen Williams.

I dont understand this line of thinking. We are nowhere near the talent level that OKC has.

OKC didnt have some promising youth that developed well - they struck gold immediately with their big-3. Guys dont suddenly become a Chet or a Jalen. You see it from the jump. We dont have anyone like that.

SGA as a rookie was a efficient rotation level guy on a team that took GSW to 6 games in R1. By his year 20 season (2nd NBA year) he was posting nearly 20ppg on great efficiency and had excellent advanced stats.
Chet was a blue chip that was in the mix for #1 overall and as a rookie was a game changing defender, efficient offensive player and overall plus on both sides of the ball.
Jalen came in with middling expectations and immediatley posted nearly 15ppg on +50% shooting.

We dont have a guy on our squad that has showed near as much promise as OKC's 3rd best player.

[Wizenheimer]

- No idea how many wins, but I'd expect to see some really good TEAM basketball this season, and if these guys can stay together for a couple years... an OKC level of rise wouldn't shock me one bit. Time will tell.

Who on this team is going to be our SGA / Chet / Jalen Williams.

I dont understand this line of thinking. We are nowhere near the talent level that OKC has.

yeah, some of the homerism about Blazer players and the team's current upside is over the top. Mostly, I think the 'disputes' center on Simons and Ayton. A lot of posters would like to see them traded, especially Simons, and some other posters are always pushing back against that perspective. And since they are the supposed 'leaders' and featured players, those that push back are always overrating the impacts of those two players, which in turn seems to cause really rosy projections of the team's upside

it's laughable to suggest that Portland could follow the track of OKC. OKC's 3 best players are better than any Portland player. OKC was the #1 seed in the west last season with the 2nd best record in the NBA. To think Portland might match that in 2 years is loony tunes

here's something to ponder; last season, OKC was actually younger than the Blazers when they won 57 games and Portland won 21

[zzaj]

- No idea how many wins, but I'd expect to see some really good TEAM basketball this season, and if these guys can stay together for a couple years... an OKC level of rise wouldn't shock me one bit. Time will tell.

Who on this team is going to be our SGA / Chet / Jalen Williams.

I dont understand this line of thinking. We are nowhere near the talent level that OKC has.

yeah, some of the homerism about Blazer players and the team's current upside is over the top. Mostly, I think the 'disputes' center on Simons and Ayton. A lot of posters would like to see them traded, especially Simons, and some other posters are always pushing back against that perspective. And since they are the supposed 'leaders' and featured players, those that push back are always overrating the impacts of those two players, which in turn seems to cause really rosy projections of the team's upside

it's laughable to suggest that Portland could follow the track of OKC. OKC's 3 best players are better than any Portland player. OKC was the #1 seed in the west last season with the 2nd best record in the NBA. To think Portland might match that in 2 years is loony tunes

here's something to ponder; last season, OKC was actually younger than the Blazers when they won 57 games and Portland won 21

I'll double down on that and say that in a lot of cases the 'homerism' also extends to the Blazers organization--and your last sentence points to exactly that.

On paper there isn't much difference between OKC as a destination vs. PDX. They are both small markets, and AFAIK considered "undesirable" by players.

However, one organization was smart about their rebuild, and one has not been. Sure you could say OKC has been lucky in their drafting--there's probably some truth to that. But (and this is key) it's just as easy to say that OKC had a system in place to be smart about who they were drafting, how those players would fit in terms of role on the roster, and a plan moving forward. Everything I've heard about OKC's FO and coaching has been positive and I think that shows in the emergence of that team and the players they drafted.

It would take a REAL homer to think the Blazer organization was anywhere close to that of OKC over the last decade.

[Village Idiot]

- No idea how many wins, but I'd expect to see some really good TEAM basketball this season, and if these guys can stay together for a couple years... an OKC level of rise wouldn't shock me one bit. Time will tell.

Who on this team is going to be our SGA / Chet / Jalen Williams.

I dont understand this line of thinking. We are nowhere near the talent level that OKC has.

OKC didnt have some promising youth that developed well - they struck gold immediately with their big-3. Guys dont suddenly become a Chet or a Jalen. You see it from the jump. We dont have anyone like that.

SGA as a rookie was a efficient rotation level guy on a team that took GSW to 6 games in R1. By his year 20 season (2nd NBA year) he was posting nearly 20ppg on great efficiency and had excellent advanced stats.
Chet was a blue chip that was in the mix for #1 overall and as a rookie was a game changing defender, efficient offensive player and overall plus on both sides of the ball.
Jalen came in with middling expectations and immediatley posted nearly 15ppg on +50% shooting.

We dont have a guy on our squad that has showed near as much promise as OKC's 3rd best player.

You are both inpatient and comparing apples to oranges in your analysis.

Jalen Williams played three years of college ball at a pretty lowly regarded school and didn´t show any promise until his third year of college. Donovan Clingan was a key piece on the team that won two national championships his first two years.

SGA and Sharpe had very similar rookie seasons https://stathead.com/tiny/NODX2 Clearly Sharpe is well behind SGA after two seasons. Note that SGA is a full year older than Sharpe in their trajectories so in terms of age the offset is a year. This year Shaedon will be the same age as when SGA made his big jump his second season.

Chet didn´t play a single minute his rookie season with that foot injury. Foot injuries and 7 footers don´t mix well. Scoot got a lot of great experience his rookie year and clearly improved a lot. Let´s see what he can do this year before passing judgement.

I would also claim that Portland has both the worst ccoach in the NBA and has been blatantly tanking. This obviously impacts both past stats and any optimism for this upcoming season.

[Walton1one]

However, one organization was smart about their rebuild, and one has not been. Sure you could say OKC has been lucky in their drafting--there's probably some truth to that. But (and this is key) it's just as easy to say that OKC had a system in place to be smart about who they were drafting, how those players would fit in terms of role on the roster, and a plan moving forward. Everything I've heard about OKC's FO and coaching has been positive and I think that shows in the emergence of that team and the players they drafted.

It would take a REAL homer to think the Blazer organization was anywhere close to that of OKC over the last decade.

Not only is OKC a VASTLY better team, with young (younger?) players on their roster, in the next (7) years they have stockpiled (13) 1st round picks (2) swaps & (17) 2nd round picks to go along with their stacked and young roster


POR by comparison, has (8, assuming pick traded to CHI never conveys) 1st round picks, (2) potential swaps and (7) 2nd round picks (assuming pick traded to CHI never conveys). Meaning, in addition to their own picks, they have a net of (1) extra 1st round pick and 1 or 2 potential pick swaps), just pathetic for a rebuilding small-market team.

OKC1st round picks
Best b\t LAC\HOU
MIA 1-14/27' 2nd
PHI 1-6/1-4/1-4/27' 2nd
UTA 1-10/1-8/nothing

[26']
Gets [2] best b\t OKC\LAC\HOU (1-4)

[27'] OKC
DEN 1-5/1-5/1-5/29' 2nd
Swap rights w\LAC

[28'] OKC
Swap rights w\DAL

[29] OKC
DEN 1-5/1-5/30' 2nd

[30 & 31] OKC

POR 1st round picks
[25'] POR 1-14/1-14/1-14/1-14/28' 2nd
[26']POR same as above
[27']POR same as above
[28']POR same as above
MIL swap - void if CHI still holds POR pick
[29']
1st/3rd best of POR\BOS\MIL
[30'] POR
MIL swap
[31'] POR

One team [OKC] is run exceptionally well (masterclass), the other team [POR] is run poorly, better than the Olshey years', but that is not a high bar to climb now is it?

But sure, they should keep Simons\Grant\Williams\Thybulle & Ayton, netting little\nothing additional for them (who needs more draft assets anyway?) & they should certainly strive for the playoffs\play in (relinquishing their 25' (heck or even 26') 1st rounder to CHI in what looks to be two incredibly loaded drafts), who needs more talent anyway? and they should certainly play those vets as many minutes as possible this year to negate any positive (low pick\odds) that could come from another dismal\losing year (Flagg\Bailey\Edgecome\Harper are all overrated anyway, right?).

I think some fans are just content to watch their team perpetually run on the hamster wheel.