Post#64 » by OhayoKD » Sat Sep 14, 2024 2:52 am
Vote
1. Kareem Abdul Jabbar
A historically rare regular season turnaround (though it is not the cleanest sample) and unlike Bird he seems to perform better in the playoffs (though admittedly his team is similarly unsuccessful). Likely already one of the best players in the world (Wilt speculated he was the best) in college, it is not unfathomable he was able to step into the league as its most valuable player. I also do find it rather compelling that his scoring volume and effeciency during the back-half of his debut regular season more closely resemble what happened in 71. As a strong believer that the postseason should be valued the most, Kareem entering the playoffs (and remaining) as the league's best scorer ontop of defense good enough to see a solid turnaround and draw Bill Russell comparisons makes me skeptical a Walt or a West or a Reed would give you a better chance at a title.
That said, the Bucks were quite disappointingly uncompetitive against the Knicks and Reed happened to see a big scoring spike from his regular-season that series. While it's not enough to make me drop Kareem, it seems worth asking if he was struggling defensively in that matchup in a way a basketball reference slashline would not capture. In fairness to the Bucks, they did not have the luxury of the league MVP missing a game and being injured half the series. Then again neither did the Bullets...
2. Willis Reed
There is certainly evidence one can offer against this placement. For one, just going by the cold data, his teammate looks more generally valuable. He also has never seen a signal on par with what we saw from the person I've placed right below him (in 71 the Knicks go from roughly a 38-win pace without to about 56 with). Finally, there is the matter of his injuries in the final, arguably opening the door for an unlikely upset.
Indeed, if this was only a regular-season selection, Reed would probably be 4th. But I'm not so interested in Reed with an unforunate injury or Reed the 21 points regular-season player as I am with the Reed playing at his best in the spots you want your players at their best. And there he stood out. In a surprisingly dominant win against the second best regular season team in the league, Reed went from a 21 point scorer to a 27 point scorer. Frazier went from a 21 point scorer to a 12 point one. Unless Frazier became an outlier among outliers defensively among guards, or just skyrocketed his playmaking (without an uptick in assists), it's tough to see how their impact would be similar.
In the finals Willis averaged 30+ points in the first 3 games as his team outscored the Lakers by roughly 4-points on average. In the last 4 the Knicks were outscored by nearly 2 points on average with Reed absent and then seemingly a shell. In the postseason, the primary paint-protector also became his team's most prolific scorer, even factoring in 3 injury-affected performances. Perhaps Frazier's gravity or something of the like is at play, but I think that is enough to give Reed the nod over his empirically more valuable teammate, as well as his empirically more valuable finals opponent.
He also does carry an advantage in total games played over both.
3. Jerry West
Another season. Another close finals loss.
While not at the same level of what we saw for Kareem (and similarly unclean), the Lakers going from roughly a 27-win team without to a 49-win team with is a pretty strong signal in West's favor and I think considering the missed time from Wilt and Baylor, the Lakers overall performance hints at very strong floor-raising. A finals performance similar to 1969(likely resulting in a win) may have even been enough to catapult West to the top of my ballot. Unfortunately, likely in part due to injury, West wilts somewhat during the last few games and the Lakers are ultimately unable to capitalize on Reed's injury. Before which Reed really looked like the best player in the series(assuming he was playing great defense I'd expect, it probably was not close). While I am not inclined to penalize too heavily for unfortunate injuries, such consideration benefits Willis more.
4. Walt Frazier
From 70-76 the Knicks were 20-25 without Frazier (a 38-win pace). Over that time frame they were 324-205 with Frazier (a 50-win pace). In 70 they were 1-5 without him (16-win pace, -2 net). With him, they went 58-16 (65-win pace). The second, smaller sample, comes below my typical filter (10 games), likely is a big overperformance relative to M.O.V, and doesn't quite track with other signals for Frazier including the former. Nonetheless, most of the raw data for Frazier seems to suggest he isa t least typically more valuable than Reed, regardless of my own expectations.
Consequently, had their regular-season production mirrored their playoff production, I would have placed Frazier ahead. But in the playoffs, Frazier seemingly folded while Reed seemingly elevated, particularly if one isolates for what they did when healthy.
5. Wes Unseld
No strong opinion here but I do think the lead scorer and defensive anchor of a 50-win team that pushed the eventual champs to 7 games at full-health warrants a top 5 spot. Granted his scoring was no longer team-leading vs the Knicks (perhaps a testament to Reed), but it also was the worst scoring performance we saw from pre-injury Willis and there was a pretty hefty rebound spike (potentially an indicator of elevation as a paint-protector).
On-top of being the catalyst, as a rookie, for a 4-point(srs) and 21-win swing the prior year, I'm pretty content letting the maligned league MVP get a spot on my ballot.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
