Is the best version of Jimmy Butler the most similar player to LeBron ever?

[ardee]

Watch on YouTube

Saw this video and it was pretty interesting. The guy compares a bunch of active players to LeBron across a variety of metrics and then comes out with a similarity score. Jimmy was the highest, Giannis second.

Truthfully, when I think about even all the players to ever play and not just active, it doesn't seem that crazy that the best version of Jimmy Butler is the closest to LeBron.

I'm talking 2020 Playoffs, 2022 Playoffs, and 2023 Playoffs (before he got hurt).

He's a big wing who can handle, score with the best of them, has good shooting (not best in the league but still up there), rebound and make plays. Defense is obviously elite when it's on too.

The apex of his career was likely the 2020 Finals, and in them he averaged 26/8/10, which is a very LeBron-esque stat line.

Who do you think is closer?

[Dr Positivity]

Butler being a better shooting match helps close the gap, but I'd probably put Hill and Dr J ahead, and I always thought Wade was smaller version of Lebron.

[OhayoKD]

Watch on YouTube

Saw this video and it was pretty interesting. The guy compares a bunch of active players to LeBron across a variety of metrics and then comes out with a similarity score. Jimmy was the highest, Giannis second.

Truthfully, when I think about even all the players to ever play and not just active, it doesn't seem that crazy that the best version of Jimmy Butler is the closest to LeBron.

I'm talking 2020 Playoffs, 2022 Playoffs, and 2023 Playoffs (before he got hurt).

He's a big wing who can handle, score with the best of them, has good shooting (not best in the league but still up there), rebound and make plays. Defense is obviously elite when it's on too.

The apex of his career was likely the 2020 Finals, and in them he averaged 26/8/10, which is a very LeBron-esque stat line.

Who do you think is closer?

If you restricted the comparison to guards and/offense maybe.

Otherwise no. They're very very different defensively

[Owly]

Some issues/commmentary

- "Most similar ... to LeBron". Which LeBron? LeBron in his first minute won't be the same guy as he will be in his (RS) 56598th (next). Career average? Peak (if so, when)? Prime (if so, when)?

-"The best version of Jimmy Butler ... the most similar player"
Is "the best version of Jimmy Butler" a player (what is "the best version of Jimmy Butler". If so, what counts as a player? Have different "versions" of all players been run through the measure.

- And then what is the measure. Not an expert but different people do different things to measure similarity. Hollinger ended up putting a massive (I think 6x [checked: 5.5]) weighting on (listed) player height after initially not using it at all. He squared the "gaps" too so a big difference in one category is a bigger deal than several smaller ones. Different methodology choices will result in different results. How much do we want there to be an implication of the same level of goodness and do you want to bake that in (Hollinger includes PER itself as one aspect) ... in theory one could go in the opposite direction and allow for a person who in individual aspects trails in every area ... but by a consistent degree (absolute or relative) to find someone ... providing value in the same way and being a very accurate "poor man's X". There are decisions to be made and it is best to be open about this and try to make informed choices as far as possible and be aware of alternatives.

- Thread regards "ever". Video (as reported - I haven't watched it) regards active players. Even with box limitations impacting our ability to compare a fair chunk of NBA history as accurately ... those are different remits. Either discussion can be had, but they are different.

This isn't to say any one result is "wrong" but that as is the question is woolly and there are a range of answers and to get it more precise (which isn't to say anything like perfect) we have to be sure what we want to ask, which tools we think are best etc.

[Statlanta]

I would say he is similar to most versions of LeBron except that offensive focused Cleveland version and the pure PF Miami version

[penbeast0]

Just for fun, checked BB-R's similarity index for LeBron. Top 10 are all bigger, stronger players: Karl Malone, Dirk, Duncan, Erving, Garnett, Barkley, Durant, Bird, Pettit, Dolph Schayes.

For Butler: Rick Barry, Elvin Hayes, Chet Walker, Havlicek, Paul Pierce, Aldridge, Bailey Howell, Nance (Sr), Nique, McHale

Would really have to see the methodology breakdown to even comment on those for Butler.

[Pelly24]

I kind of got this sense just thinking about the impact stats (BPM, ws/48), their two-way play and their ability to run an offense and close games out in the fourth quarter. No other players besides I guess MJ and Wade were like that in my eyes. These are guys that are basically flawless. Giannis can play defense and score, but can't be relied on to close in the same way. KD is a great scorer and defender at times and he can close, but his handle is too sloppy to run an offense in tight situations. Jimmy and LeBron can score at all three levels in all circumstances, play multi positional defense, make hustle plays, explode, and jimmy is one of the only few players I've seen reach LeBron-level -all-around play in the playoffs in his prime.

[DCasey91]

It's Wade and it's not even close Imho.

Butler isn't going downhill like the former can.

The rim pressure (Wade had stupid conversion back then) and pure athleticism it's definitely a couple of tiers of separation.

Wade would just split the pnr and dunk on whoever was protecting the rim.

Jimmy is more of the grafter of fouls between the 3 whereas the other two could bully the heck out of anyone and force getting to the line.

Peak Wade and it is bias but there's a whole lot of truth to it as he's basically a mini Lebron from a game to game standpoint.

[Sign5]

No that would be Dwyane Wade.

Jimmy is phenomenal at his best but that freakish first step and agility from Wade is really what allowed him to rival Lebron for years. When you put a Aaron Gordon or Jaden McDaniels on Butler he's noticeably affected. With Wade, it didn't matter who you put in front of him he could blow by them all, contort his way through the paint and STILL have enough oomph to slam it over a center.

Wasn't quite the level of LeBron, MJ, Westbrook etc in terms of pure athleticism but his ATG speed/quickness, body control and freakish wingspan more than made up for the vert he lacked and I believe he still had a respectable 37 inch vert.

Wade was 6'4 but played like a 6'8 forward, truly one of a kind. There's about 10 guys in league right now who have gone record stating they've modeled their game after Wade or just their favorite player growing up.
It's a shame we couldn't view a full 3+ years of PRIME Wade and Lebron. They already produced 100s of highlight reel clips with a lesser version of Wade, imagine '06 + '09 Wade and Lebron. Just lol.

[OhayoKD]

I kind of got this sense just thinking about the impact stats (BPM, ws/48)

BPM and WS/48 are not impact stats. Though I guess your reliance on them explains why you massively overrate guards.

their two-way play

You do realize you are talking about 3 guards right? Neither Butler or Jordan or Wade are on the same scale defensively.

and their ability to run an offense and close games out in the fourth quarter.

Jordan was not even running the bulls offense but alright.

No other players besides I guess MJ and Wade were like that in my eyes. These are guys that are basically flawless.

If you disregard that they are below average at the most important aspect of defense and are vastly inferior playmakers...sure. "Basically flawless".

[EmpireFalls]

Magic maybe?

[homecourtloss]

Just for fun, checked BB-R's similarity index for LeBron. Top 10 are all bigger, stronger players: Karl Malone, Dirk, Duncan, Erving, Garnett, Barkley, Durant, Bird, Pettit, Dolph Schayes.

For Butler: Rick Barry, Elvin Hayes, Chet Walker, Havlicek, Paul Pierce, Aldridge, Bailey Howell, Nance (Sr), Nique, McHale

Would really have to see the methodology breakdown to even comment on those for Butler.

That’s by design. Basically what BBRef is doing is finding similarity between positions played as well as similar career patterns via comparing Win Shares, which takes into consideration Win Shares earned early in their careers, peak Win Shares/worst Win Share years, longevity of Win shares. Even if two players who don’t have similar builds and/or play different traditional positions, i.e., guard, sf, pf, c, etc., actually do play similarly, BBR similarity score will only compare to other players who played a similar position. A forward could be compared to other forwards or a center-forward.

[penbeast0]

Just for fun, checked BB-R's similarity index for LeBron. Top 10 are all bigger, stronger players: Karl Malone, Dirk, Duncan, Erving, Garnett, Barkley, Durant, Bird, Pettit, Dolph Schayes.

For Butler: Rick Barry, Elvin Hayes, Chet Walker, Havlicek, Paul Pierce, Aldridge, Bailey Howell, Nance (Sr), Nique, McHale

Would really have to see the methodology breakdown to even comment on those for Butler.

That’s by design. Basically what BBRef is doing is finding similarity between positions played as well as similar career patterns via comparing Win Shares, which takes into consideration Win Shares earned early in their careers, peak Win Shares/worst Win Share years, longevity of Win shares. Even if two players who don’t have similar builds and/or play different traditional positions, i.e., guard, sf, pf, c, etc., actually do play similarly, BBR similarity score will only compare to other players who played a similar position. A forward could be compared to other forwards or a center-forward.

Yes, that's why I was surprised that other than Erving, Durant, and Bird, that they were mainly 4's rather than 3's. I think of LeBron as primarily a 3 at least until the last few years.

Then seeing Elvin Hayes, LaMarcus Adridge, Kevin McHale, and the like for Butler who I see as a wing were also jarring in that sense.

[tone wone]

Yeah. I kinda see it.

Defensively, both are/were incredible playmakers with insane iq. Differing skillsets with Jimmy having much better/quicker feet making him better on the perimeter while LeBron's bigger body making him more disruptive near the paint

Offensively, when Butler ramps up his scoring aggressiveness there's a striking resemblance in how they attack. Surgical mismatch hunting, creating insanely high quality shots in paint for themselves while creating open 3s for teammates. Paired with opportunistic 3pt shooting. Not the same caliber of shot-maker Lebron is but his superior ft shooting makes up some of the difference. Jimmy does pull off a really nice Lebron imitation...in the halfcourt at least.

[Heej]

I always said 2020 was his best LeBron impression. As far as playstyles and builds I'm going with Dr J

[FrodoBaggins]

Clyde Drexler had a lot of similarities to LeBron.

[homecourtloss]

Just for fun, checked BB-R's similarity index for LeBron. Top 10 are all bigger, stronger players: Karl Malone, Dirk, Duncan, Erving, Garnett, Barkley, Durant, Bird, Pettit, Dolph Schayes.

For Butler: Rick Barry, Elvin Hayes, Chet Walker, Havlicek, Paul Pierce, Aldridge, Bailey Howell, Nance (Sr), Nique, McHale

Would really have to see the methodology breakdown to even comment on those for Butler.

That’s by design. Basically what BBRef is doing is finding similarity between positions played as well as similar career patterns via comparing Win Shares, which takes into consideration Win Shares earned early in their careers, peak Win Shares/worst Win Share years, longevity of Win shares. Even if two players who don’t have similar builds and/or play different traditional positions, i.e., guard, sf, pf, c, etc., actually do play similarly, BBR similarity score will only compare to other players who played a similar position. A forward could be compared to other forwards or a center-forward.

Yes, that's why I was surprised that other than Erving, Durant, and Bird, that they were mainly 4's rather than 3's. I think of LeBron as primarily a 3 at least until the last few years.

Then seeing Elvin Hayes, LaMarcus Adridge, Kevin McHale, and the like for Butler who I see as a wing were also jarring in that sense.

There are many issues for sure. I think they should use VORP instead of Win Shares though not really all that fond of either stat. Here’s what the arcs look like when graphed out along with just LeBron and K. Malone, the two with the highest similarity score in this case:



Here’s LeBeon and Bird with the lowest of among these similar:



Here’s the career win shares from greatest to least for each player:

[Owly]

That’s by design. Basically what BBRef is doing is finding similarity between positions played as well as similar career patterns via comparing Win Shares, which takes into consideration Win Shares earned early in their careers, peak Win Shares/worst Win Share years, longevity of Win shares. Even if two players who don’t have similar builds and/or play different traditional positions, i.e., guard, sf, pf, c, etc., actually do play similarly, BBR similarity score will only compare to other players who played a similar position. A forward could be compared to other forwards or a center-forward.

Yes, that's why I was surprised that other than Erving, Durant, and Bird, that they were mainly 4's rather than 3's. I think of LeBron as primarily a 3 at least until the last few years.

Then seeing Elvin Hayes, LaMarcus Adridge, Kevin McHale, and the like for Butler who I see as a wing were also jarring in that sense.

There are many issues for sure. I think they should use VORP instead of Win Shares though not really all that fond of either stat. Here’s what the arcs look like when graphed out along with just LeBron and K. Malone, the two with the highest similarity score in this case:



Here’s LeBeon and Bird with the lowest of among these similar:



Here’s the career win shares from greatest to least for each player:

If one is doing the "shape of career annual productive value" (whether ranked or career year-by-year) rather than playstyle comp, I would think it would also generally be wise/necessary to pro-rate incomplete (i.e. not 82 games) league seasons (lockout, Covid etc). I think this is most obviously visible in Malone's negative spike - (eyeballing it and assuming this was the cause) - in part because it was the greatest loss of games and because his production was otherwise so consistent, but would apply more generally. I suppose it might depend on the purpose of any comparison but in general the pro rata number seems more relevant.

Fwiw, I'd guess WS is used rather than VORP because WS has an (estimate-based in some cases) number for all the seasons whereas BPM/VORP doesn't so there would be a smaller field for all players and older players wouldn't have the comps.

[JLei]

I think out of the current players it's definitely/ clearly Luka at least offensively.

Control the ball. Exert tons of pressure by constantly driving the ball to the basket and being near the top of the league there (Luka was 3rd behind SGA and Brunson this year) and then picking the defense apart with passing when the help comes. Just because Luka doesn't quite get all the way to the rim like Lebron does doesn't mean it isn't basically the same.

Luka is the only player in the league other than Jokic that is capable of controlling the tempo of a game like a prime Lebron could. Elite/great scorer with savant/very high level playmaking is the mold.

Butler just isn't that kind of a scorer that Lebron is even with his hot streaks in those playoff runs. I do see the similarities in the all around game and defense but Butler doesn't score quite like Lebron does.

What makes Lebron special is it seems he's really the only player in that mold that is also a plus defender other than Jordan/ Wade.

[Pelly24]

I kind of got this sense just thinking about the impact stats (BPM, ws/48)

BPM and WS/48 are not impact stats. Though I guess your reliance on them explains why you massively overrate guards.

their two-way play

You do realize you are talking about 3 guards right? Neither Butler or Jordan or Wade are on the same scale defensively.

and their ability to run an offense and close games out in the fourth quarter.

Jordan was not even running the bulls offense but alright.

No other players besides I guess MJ and Wade were like that in my eyes. These are guys that are basically flawless.

If you disregard that they are below average at the most important aspect of defense and are vastly inferior playmakers...sure. "Basically flawless".

TBH all of this is just semantics. The real point is that LeBron, Wade and MJ ... and Jimmy were three-level scoring wings who could get to the free throw line a lot, make shots from a variety of places on the court, create off the dribble, mostly hit free throws, make game-changing plays on both ends of the ball and keep their turnover rate very low seemingly no matter the circumstances. They can't be taken advantage of on defense and they don't have many weaknesses when it comes to offense. They all have proven ability to lead bad teams to much better records than what they would have otherwise. They all raised their game or kept it the same during the playoffs. Basically, they have no substantial flaws when it comes to basketball. Jimmy is in rare company in this way, don't be obtuse.

A two-way wing that can pass, shoot and dribble and play on or off ball and has plus size is extremely valuable. Jimmy has outplayed Giannis multiple times, outplayed Tatum and Brown, taken bad teams to the playoffs, taken good teams to the NBA Finals, etc.

I can't think of any other recent wing besides maybe KD that has his run of floor-raising, ceiling raising and playoff performances. But KD's best playoff performances were with some unrealistically stacked squads so meh We never saw Kawhi do it he wasn't healthy enough. Paul George has never been close, he flames out a lot more than people want to admit. yeah like ... I can't remember anyone else.