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Blake Murphy on the Dunc'd on Podcast

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agkagk
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Re: Blake Murphy on the Dunc'd on Podcast 

Post#41 » by agkagk » Fri Sep 20, 2024 11:41 pm

ConSarnit wrote:
agkagk wrote:
DKB333 wrote:
They play 12 games against the Celtics/76ers/Knicks who they went 0-12 against last year.



That is what one should call a statistical anomoly or a small sample size.

Logic would dictate A return to a standard deviation (is that even the right term? *shrugs*)
Once again, not a statistician; just my common sense


It won’t be 0-12. Probably 2-10. Knicks got better, Sixers got better, Celtics stayed the same.



4 and 8 would still be horrible… come on guys, this team is a lock to win over 30
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Re: Blake Murphy on the Dunc'd on Podcast 

Post#42 » by Brinbe » Sat Sep 21, 2024 12:01 am

ciueli wrote:
Brinbe wrote:It's more a function of our place in the league, as I think we'll see the Hornets rise above us back to where they were a few years ago before Miles Bridges' idiocy and LaMelo's injuries ruined their past few season and I don't think the Wizards/Pistons will be as historically bad as they were last year. So we're scrambling with them and the Nets as the clear bottom four in the conference. How ever it shakes out we're in that overall mix for bottom six along with the Blazers and Jazz.

Everyone thinks the Bulls and Hawks will somehow drop back and I don't see it. The Bulls may have lost DeMar but they're getting LaVine back and they have a bunch of young talent. The Hawks were hit hard by injuries and will likely be about the same and they have the first overall pick added to their core now too. The Spurs are likely to be a bit better with their veteran additions and draft picks.


The Bulls had two players significantly positive in Box +/- last season, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso. Both of those players are gone now, and they didn't replace them with anyone good. Zach Lavine played 25 games last season and there's real questions as to whether he is done as an impact player or if he can stay healthy at all, Vucevic is just washed. Their best player with Lavine out is arguably Coby White, he's a decent starter, that's about it, hard to see them not taking a big step backwards.

The Hawks are probably around about as talented as the Raptors, but they are definitely looking to tank this season, there's even rumours they were shopping Trae Young but the return they were looking for wasn't there, there were no takers. Trae actually missed significant time last season, if he misses that time again or they trade him, their next best player is Bogdan Bogdanovic, that's a steep drop off after they traded Dejounte Murray. They could be better than the Raptors, but they're showing every sign of wanting to tank and it's certain they will play Risacher starter minutes to develop him, rookies rarely contribute to winning. Contrast this with the Raptors who likely won't play any of the rookies real minutes, they will sit on the bench and play in the G-League, at least at the beginning of the season.

Well, they may also have Lonzo back at some point. Ayo's also good. Patrick Williams is decent at a few things like shooting 3s and still young enough where if he takes a small leap he's a positive contributor. They added Jalen Smith who was good for the Pacers and could be better with a bigger role. And who knows what they got with Buzelis. Lavine might be back or might not be, but I think he'll give them more than what he did last season. Giddey I'm whatever on but he can be a playmaker and Vuc is Vuc. And Torrey Craig/Jevon Carter would probably be key vets for us lol.

I don't think our situation is really any better to be honest.

And on the Hawks, how do you completely forget about Jalen Johnson???? Dyson Daniels? De'Andre Hunter? Okongwu? Nance Jr? Capela? Like even beyond Trae/Bogie they have talent and they added Risacher. And who knows, maybe Bufkin will turn into something.

Is that a title contender? Of course not, but I think it's a fair bit better than what we got aside from Scottie, and Scottie isn't an alpha type of scorer like Trae can be at his best.
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Re: Blake Murphy on the Dunc'd on Podcast 

Post#43 » by ConSarnit » Sat Sep 21, 2024 12:53 am

agkagk wrote:
ConSarnit wrote:
agkagk wrote:

That is what one should call a statistical anomoly or a small sample size.

Logic would dictate A return to a standard deviation (is that even the right term? *shrugs*)
Once again, not a statistician; just my common sense


It won’t be 0-12. Probably 2-10. Knicks got better, Sixers got better, Celtics stayed the same.



4 and 8 would still be horrible… come on guys, this team is a lock to win over 30


I’m not sure how you’re defining a lock but there are a few ways we don’t hit 30 wins. Injuries to any of the IQ, Barnes or Poeltl would kill us. We’ve seen that the front office is willing to tank if things go south. Our Vegas over under is 30 wins. I just don’t see any way the over is a lock. That assumes the worst case scenario is 30 wins, which isn’t the case at all.
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Re: Blake Murphy on the Dunc'd on Podcast 

Post#44 » by agkagk » Sat Sep 21, 2024 1:21 am

ConSarnit wrote:
agkagk wrote:
ConSarnit wrote:
It won’t be 0-12. Probably 2-10. Knicks got better, Sixers got better, Celtics stayed the same.



4 and 8 would still be horrible… come on guys, this team is a lock to win over 30


I’m not sure how you’re defining a lock but there are a few ways we don’t hit 30 wins. Injuries to any of the IQ, Barnes or Poeltl would kill us. We’ve seen that the front office is willing to tank if things go south. Our Vegas over under is 30 wins. I just don’t see any way the over is a lock. That assumes the worst case scenario is 30 wins, which isn’t the case at all.


Yes

Injuries are the only way.

Its a lock otherwise

Like it’s a total no brainer dude
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Re: Blake Murphy on the Dunc'd on Podcast 

Post#45 » by TGM » Sat Sep 21, 2024 1:49 am

Indeed wrote:
nivisi9 wrote:
Indeed wrote:Their prediction is 20th best offense and defense. Better than Bulls, Nets, while Hornets depends on Ball.
33 / 35 wins due to no depth and no replacement with injury.


so basically worse place possible to be, 9-11th seed headed towards long term treadmill.

we'll probably be too decent moving forward to tank.

Does the front office not think this through like daily and see the trajectory?

Sorry Masai last year was a waste (8th pick traded) we need atleast 1 and probably 2 high end prospects if this team ever wants to be a contender.

Probably gotta suck this year, and if we do it right only has to be this year


The podcast does share the concern that none of the starters are really standout, maybe except Barnes.
However, at the end, no one knows if this is long term treadmill. Is DeRozan era treadmill? We have the same outcome of trading him for Leonard?


Raps lack an offense alpha. This has always been the issue with our team. In the history of Raps only Vc and Leonard were offensive alphas. The rest of the guy are maybe your second or third option.

So not advocating we trade for Lavine, but guys like him at least show they can be an offensive alpha. Don’t think Barrett or IQ is that either. Barnes I’m also skeptical.

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