Breaking: Rogers Aquires Bell Stake In MLSE

[Reeko]

With a few days to sink in and reading some of the bay street analysis of this, think we actually see a different situation from the neglect of the Raptors many of us are foreseeing: the Raptors and maybe Toronto FC being spun off from MLSE.

Rogers will never sell the Jays and Leafs. But the financial or shareholder pressures look to be inevitable here, and if they're looking for a quick cash infusion from a business they don't really really get or care about, selling the soccer and basketball assets is the obvious choice. The Raptors will make the most sense given the value relative to the other teams and the cultural attachment to the others by Bay Street. If they bid for NHL rights the pressure will be even stronger.

The Raptors have had four ownership changes now in 30 years, from the original sale to MLSE, to OTPP, to Bell/Rogers, to now. So it's a matter of when, not if, another one comes, and a full spin off, hopefully to a Tannenbaum or Ken Thomson type owner, is a real possibility I think.

So patience! And who knows, maybe when Larry T's shares come up, Larry T gives up his share of the Leafs and takes full control of the Raptors, paying Rogers the difference. That seems more likely than the whole IPO idea.

He's not selling. By all accounts he wants a sports empire.

[ATLTimekeeper]

AA is pretty much just like Kyle Dubas, incredibly skilled at manipulating the media and articulating strategies to an niche of fans that want to feel like they're smarter than other fans. This type of personality thrives on message boards (like realgm, see Sam Presti). Fan interaction moved from what happened in the games to chess pieces.

While I don't have a lot of faith that Ed Rogers can figure it out, I am happy that he has a lot of money and is incentivized with his media property to put on a good show, and that he probably won't move the team. He will probably shut down the 905 and run Masai out of town. Masai hasn't had the receipts of late to keep his position, and I've argued in the past year or so that he's heel-turned on the qualities that made him an excellent leader of the Raptors in the past. This year is critical for him in proving that his decisions were worth it. It may still be too late, but he has to do better to prove that Ed Rogers will be wrong in letting him go.

[Anticon]

With a few days to sink in and reading some of the bay street analysis of this, think we actually see a different situation from the neglect of the Raptors many of us are foreseeing: the Raptors and maybe Toronto FC being spun off from MLSE.

Rogers will never sell the Jays and Leafs. But the financial or shareholder pressures look to be inevitable here, and if they're looking for a quick cash infusion from a business they don't really really get or care about, selling the soccer and basketball assets is the obvious choice. The Raptors will make the most sense given the value relative to the other teams and the cultural attachment to the others by Bay Street. If they bid for NHL rights the pressure will be even stronger.

The Raptors have had four ownership changes now in 30 years, from the original sale to MLSE, to OTPP, to Bell/Rogers, to now. So it's a matter of when, not if, another one comes, and a full spin off, hopefully to a Tannenbaum or Ken Thomson type owner, is a real possibility I think.

So patience! And who knows, maybe when Larry T's shares come up, Larry T gives up his share of the Leafs and takes full control of the Raptors, paying Rogers the difference. That seems more likely than the whole IPO idea.

He's not selling. By all accounts he wants a sports empire.

What he wants and what the pressures that compel are very different things. MLSE was never designed to be managed by an individual owner, and the reality of that will likely become clear in a few years. The business of this doesn't make a lot of sense for Rogers so it'll only be a matter of time before spinning off parts of MLSE gets discussed.

I'm not by any means saying it's a certainty, but i do think it's a scenario that will be talked about before too long.

[Badonkadonk]

With a few days to sink in and reading some of the bay street analysis of this, think we actually see a different situation from the neglect of the Raptors many of us are foreseeing: the Raptors and maybe Toronto FC being spun off from MLSE.

Rogers will never sell the Jays and Leafs. But the financial or shareholder pressures look to be inevitable here, and if they're looking for a quick cash infusion from a business they don't really really get or care about, selling the soccer and basketball assets is the obvious choice. The Raptors will make the most sense given the value relative to the other teams and the cultural attachment to the others by Bay Street. If they bid for NHL rights the pressure will be even stronger.

The Raptors have had four ownership changes now in 30 years, from the original sale to MLSE, to OTPP, to Bell/Rogers, to now. So it's a matter of when, not if, another one comes, and a full spin off, hopefully to a Tannenbaum or Ken Thomson type owner, is a real possibility I think.

So patience! And who knows, maybe when Larry T's shares come up, Larry T gives up his share of the Leafs and takes full control of the Raptors, paying Rogers the difference. That seems more likely than the whole IPO idea.

He's not selling. By all accounts he wants a sports empire.

What he wants and what the pressures that compel are very different things. MLSE was never designed to be managed by an individual owner, and the reality of that will likely become clear in a few years. The business of this doesn't make a lot of sense for Rogers so it'll only be a matter of time before spinning off parts of MLSE gets discussed.

I'm not by any means saying it's a certainty, but i do think it's a scenario that will be talked about before too long.

Zero chance this happens. NBA teams are so much more valuable than NHL, and valuations are generally higher top-to-bottom than MLB (Dodgers and Yankees are outliers). Underlying this is revenue-generating potential. MLS is probably still the highest growth potential league in their portfolio.

I mean, Ed is definitely stupid enough to be backwards facing and not future-minded, but it wouldn't be the smart business decision. I have to imagine the board would advise against it. Also, there's no pressure to sell any MLSE asset because those properties are insulated from Rogers' profit/loss and team budgets aren't subject to shareholder scrutiny like the Jays, who have to report their income via a Rogers division ("Media").

That last point is why I think the Jays get folded into MLSE at some point.

There's also Ed's ego. I wouldn't be surprised if they did the opposite of what you suggest and sought other assets, like a footy team in one Europe's primary leagues (or maybe the EFL Championship - tier below the EPL).

[Anticon]

He's not selling. By all accounts he wants a sports empire.

What he wants and what the pressures that compel are very different things. MLSE was never designed to be managed by an individual owner, and the reality of that will likely become clear in a few years. The business of this doesn't make a lot of sense for Rogers so it'll only be a matter of time before spinning off parts of MLSE gets discussed.

I'm not by any means saying it's a certainty, but i do think it's a scenario that will be talked about before too long.

Zero chance this happens. NBA teams are so much more valuable than NHL, and valuations are generally higher top-to-bottom than MLB (Dodgers and Yankees are outliers). Underlying this is revenue-generating potential. MLS is probably still the highest growth potential league in their portfolio.

I mean, Ed is definitely stupid enough to be backwards facing and not future-minded, but it wouldn't be the smart business decision. I have to imagine the board would advise against it. Also, there's no pressure to sell any MLSE asset because those properties are insulated from Rogers' profit/loss and team budgets aren't subject to shareholder scrutiny like the Jays, who have to report their income via a Rogers division ("Media").

That last point is why I think the Jays get folded into MLSE at some point.

There's also Ed's ego. I wouldn't be surprised if they did the opposite of what you suggest and sought other assets, like a footy team in one Europe's primary leagues (or maybe the EFL Championship - tier below the EPL).

All good points, but I think the Raptors situation is exactly why a sale could happen. It's the highest value asset and if they're prioritizing hockey (which they will if they bid for NHL rights again), that will be a lucrative asset to handle any pressures. It isn't really about whether the sports teams look good from an operational standpoint, but what the return could be to offset other pressures.

That said, it is a shift from the current direction, so that's why I think it's a plausible scenario but by no means a certain one.

[ATLTimekeeper]

The Celtics went up for sale immediately after winning a title. The Raptors could definitely be re-packaged off in the near future.

[Randle McMurphy]

I do it find it funny that Randall is saying Masai has been mediocre while defending Shapiro, who has 10 years of mediocrity. Put Masai's 10 year record against Atkins, will truly stand out how bad Atkins has been for the Jays. Considering that Ed brought Shapiro in, not so confident in him picking a replacement for Masai. That white supremacist trust fund baby should be no where near the Raps.

Strawman. I want Shapiro and Atkins gone and have for a while now. That has absolutely nothing to do with Ujiri being objectively terrible since the 2020 offseason and the Raptors being badly in need of change.

[Reeko]

The Celtics went up for sale immediately after winning a title. The Raptors could definitely be re-packaged off in the near future.

When their value is at its absolute peak and the present roster has them in CBA hell. Very different situations.

[ForeverTFC]

With a few days to sink in and reading some of the bay street analysis of this, think we actually see a different situation from the neglect of the Raptors many of us are foreseeing: the Raptors and maybe Toronto FC being spun off from MLSE.

Rogers will never sell the Jays and Leafs. But the financial or shareholder pressures look to be inevitable here, and if they're looking for a quick cash infusion from a business they don't really really get or care about, selling the soccer and basketball assets is the obvious choice. The Raptors will make the most sense given the value relative to the other teams and the cultural attachment to the others by Bay Street. If they bid for NHL rights the pressure will be even stronger.

The Raptors have had four ownership changes now in 30 years, from the original sale to MLSE, to OTPP, to Bell/Rogers, to now. So it's a matter of when, not if, another one comes, and a full spin off, hopefully to a Tannenbaum or Ken Thomson type owner, is a real possibility I think.

So patience! And who knows, maybe when Larry T's shares come up, Larry T gives up his share of the Leafs and takes full control of the Raptors, paying Rogers the difference. That seems more likely than the whole IPO idea.

This is my hope (and I believe an inevitability), but I’m afraid it will take some time.

A telco should not own this type of asset. They should be in the business of returning cash to shareholders. However, we have 2 things working against us:
1. The Rogers family owns 97%+ of the voting shares in the company. Without the threat of real shareholder pressure and with the government safety net, they can make irrational decisions.
2. Ed wants to leave his mark and has zero’d in on having tue largest “sports empire” in the world. All of MLSE’s teams are in the top 10 of their respective leagues in valuation. This is about his ego.

Still, my hope is that Larry gets the Raptors. His stake is 25% I believe, which would value Larry’s stake at ~$2.5b. Raptors are probably worth ~$4b, so Larry would have to bring in some outside investors for the rest, though his company would retain majority share still. The complicating factor is a stadium.

[adubmac]

Ed is more likely to bring an NFL team to Toronto than he is to sell the Raptors at this point.

[Raps in 4]

Yes the 2015 and 2016 jays were great but then Rogers replaced AA the guy who built those great teams with 2 clowns who have made the product terrible this year. The worry is not that they will replace Masai but that they'll bring in ineffectual people like Shapiro and Atkins.

Since 2000, when Rogers acquired the Jays, the team has made the playoffs 5* times. They won two playoff series during that span.

*One of those five times was during the 60-game COVID-shortened season when the team was barely hovering above .500 with a negative run differential and would have certainly missed the playoffs during a full length season.

And even when Ed lucked out into a good FO, he botched it by forcing them out.

People crying about the state of the Raptors right now either don't remember how difficult being a Blue Jays fan over the last 25 years has been, or they choose not to remember. It's comical to think that the family (now headed by the idiot son) who ran that dumpster fire for 25 years are somehow competent owners all of a sudden.

It's fine to decry the state of the Raptors right now (I actively complain about this team). But to think that Ed Rogers is this team's saviour is so deluded I can't believe the posts aren't made in jest.

On the morning of July 29 2015, the Jays under AA were 446-465 in his tenure with 0 playoff appearances and 0 seasons above 85 wins. He then traded 12 prospects at the deadline to build what was essentially a 15 month competitive window when he already had one foot out the door. At what point was Ed not justified in looking for a replacement front office? He had already hired Shapiro by August of that year, which was before that magical 2 months to end 2015 concluded. It's not like the Jays finished 2015, and then Ed started a search for new front office. He did it when it looked like the team was going to miss the playoffs again and AA was already a lame duck hired by the president who was leaving (Beeston). A lot of revisionist history with AA's departure.

The team that AA built was old and expensive with nothing in the upper minors to supplement it. If you think the farm system now is bad, it was worse by the end of 2015 since Vlad was 17 and just signed. If Rogers had kept AA and given him more power, the team still would have had to rebuild in 2017-19 like it did with Shatkins. Only difference is AA wouldn't have been able to work with the Dodgers for 2 years (which likely helped him become a better GM) and he wouldn't have inherited Freeman, Acuna, Albies, Fried, etc, like he did in Atlanta. He would have had to develop those players himself, which he wasn't very successful with in Toronto.

Ed being the Raptors "savior", which I don't think anyone has argued, is just as hyperbolic as "Ed is going destroy this org because he did it with the Jays". I'd argue the latter is more hyperbolic between the two options.

He hired Mark Shapiro, a guy who led the Indians, in the weak AL Central, to 3 playoff appearances in 15 years (his first playoff appearance was in his first season when he inherited a 90-win team). That's not the executive you hire if you care about winning.

And Shapiro is currently in year 9 of his tenure with the Jays. The Jays have 0 playoff wins since dismantling AA's team in 2017 and are now also sitting on a depleted farm system. Ed isn't looking to replace him.

It's very clear to anyone looking at this objectively that Ed isn't serious about winning.

[Raps in 4]

AA is pretty much just like Kyle Dubas, incredibly skilled at manipulating the media and articulating strategies to an niche of fans that want to feel like they're smarter than other fans. This type of personality thrives on message boards (like realgm, see Sam Presti). Fan interaction moved from what happened in the games to chess pieces.

While I don't have a lot of faith that Ed Rogers can figure it out, I am happy that he has a lot of money and is incentivized with his media property to put on a good show, and that he probably won't move the team. He will probably shut down the 905 and run Masai out of town. Masai hasn't had the receipts of late to keep his position, and I've argued in the past year or so that he's heel-turned on the qualities that made him an excellent leader of the Raptors in the past. This year is critical for him in proving that his decisions were worth it. It may still be too late, but he has to do better to prove that Ed Rogers will be wrong in letting him go.

AA's teams have gone to 4 conference finals, winning 1 title in the last 10 years. He is an elite executive.

Sam Presti is also an elite executive. The guy built two separate contenders in the NBA's smallest market in a period of 17 years. That's an incredible feat.

I'm not sure why you are comparing these guys to Dubas, whose teams have gotten out of the first round of the playoffs just once in his career. A much better comparison for Dubas is Atkins. A pseudo-nerd who pretends to understand analytics (but doesn't) and struggles to get results (although even Dubas has managed to achieve more than Atkins).

While I don't have a lot of faith that Ed Rogers can figure it out, I am happy that he has a lot of money and is incentivized with his media property to put on a good show, and that he probably won't move the team.

He certainly won't move the team. Why would any owner, given their valuation? But he absolutely isn't incentivized to put on a "good show". You don't hire Mark Shapiro to run your team if that's your goal. Mark Shapiro was literally the poster child for mediocrity in MLB before we hired him (and it's a title he continues to hold onto).

He will probably shut down the 905 and run Masai out of town. Masai hasn't had the receipts of late to keep his position, and I've argued in the past year or so that he's heel-turned on the qualities that made him an excellent leader of the Raptors in the past. This year is critical for him in proving that his decisions were worth it. It may still be too late, but he has to do better to prove that Ed Rogers will be wrong in letting him go.

Shutting down the 905 would be antithetical to "wanting to put on a good show" (player development is kind of important to putting on a good show), but would absolutely be on brand for Ed, who is cheap and doesn't care about winning.

I have no problem with Masai getting fired. I've been as critical as anyone of him over the last few seasons. But if the one selecting his replacement is Ed, we're going to be in for many, many years of suffering as fans.

[Fairview4Life]

AA is a good GM but if you’re going to give Shapiro **** for inheriting a good Cleveland team than I have bad news about AA’s Atlanta team. In addition, anyone the Jays hired post AA was going to have to dismantle the 2017 team. Hell, AA would have had to dismantle it. It was the oldest team in baseball and a whole bunch of the regulars fell off a cliff shortly after.

[D.Brasco]

Ed is more likely to bring an NFL team to Toronto than he is to sell the Raptors at this point.

If it wasn't for the lame tailgating laws, an NFL franchise coming to Toronto would be an absolutely feasible idea. The NFL is desperate for international expansion and are looking to places like London and Mexico City now, Toronto should absolutely get a team before those places.

[Raps in 4]

AA is a good GM but if you’re going to give Shapiro **** for inheriting a good Cleveland team than I have bad news about AA’s Atlanta team. In addition, anyone the Jays hired post AA was going to have to dismantle the 2017 team. Hell, AA would have had to dismantle it. It was the oldest team in baseball and a whole bunch of the regulars fell off a cliff shortly after.

I'm not giving him **** for inhering his first season in Cleveland. I'm saying that he made the playoffs 3 times in 15 years, in a weak division, which is an abysmal record any way you slice it.

Extending the competitive window of a team you inherit is also a skill. AA has made some excellent picks and trades since taking over in Atlanta. He also signed all their core players to incredibly team-friendly, long-term deals.

In addition, anyone the Jays hired post AA was going to have to dismantle the 2017 team. Hell, AA would have had to dismantle it. It was the oldest team in baseball and a whole bunch of the regulars fell off a cliff shortly after.

Shatkins traded Donaldson at his lowest value for peanuts. He went on to have a 5.2 fWAR season the following year. They royally **** that up too. They traded him during a slump between two elite seasons. Getting value back for him could have accelerated the rebuild and/or given us additional prospects that could have potentially extended our current window of contention (by either becoming productive young players or by being used in trades).

[Tacoma]

Masai has not collected assets the last 4 years yet...

Acquired a budding star
Aquired a 20+ point 23 year old
Acquired a 17 point 24 year old
Acquired a starting C
Aquired a 20 year old shooter
Added 2 vet bench pieces
Added 2 former 1st rounders still on their rookie deals
Added 4 prospects this draft
Has a 1st and likely high 2nd from Portland next draft
Has 2 1st the following year

We have completely overhauled the team the last 1.5 years. Hell only Barnes and Boucher were here 18 months ago. Oh, and brought in a new coach and lots of new staff.

People can bitch that MU waited too long or didn't do things on their timeline. Whatever, it's done. We ARE building things back up. We DON'T tank from day 1 of the season. MU DOES see value in actually playing for wins. Rogers DOES want people in seats to make more money.

Sit back, enjoy the ride. We are just starting the build back up and building depth on the team and 905. It's going to take some time.

Let's look at how our team 1.5 years ago was "overhauled":

Siakam: traded in his contract year, it was either make a trade or he becomes a free agent
FVV: Became free agent, lost
OG: traded in his contract year, it was either make a trade or he becomes free agent
GTJ: Became free agent, lost
Achiuwa: traded in his contract year, it was either make a trade or he becomes free agent
Thad Young: Became free agent, lost (thankfully!)

Notice a trend? Masai's "overhaul" was made either out of urgency because it was a contract year and risk of losing them as free agent or they became a free agent and were outright lost. You can complain about others bitching that Masai waited too long, but you can't credit him for overhauling the team while overlooking the timeline context in which it was done.

[djsunyc]

It’s like reading this place back in 2012 with as many Masai apologists as there are still. I honestly think he’d get a 10+ year free pass of mediocrity from MLSE if it wasn’t for Rogers taking over.

this is a pretty dumb take b/c masai delivered a championship. so that's on the resume and something that nobody thought would ever happen so yes, that buys you some time.

secondly, i, as a fan, have no control over anything. so it comes down to how you want to be a fan. if you want to whine and complain over stuff you can't control, then it's your right, just like it's other people's rights to think you are a whiner and complainer.

if he quits or is let go...then fine. on to the next exec and hope he wins. it ain't that deep and it ain't that personal. none of this is influenced by any of the idiots that post on online forums.

[deeps6x]

AA is pretty much just like Kyle Dubas, incredibly skilled at manipulating the media and articulating strategies to an niche of fans that want to feel like they're smarter than other fans. This type of personality thrives on message boards (like realgm, see Sam Presti). Fan interaction moved from what happened in the games to chess pieces.

While I don't have a lot of faith that Ed Rogers can figure it out, I am happy that he has a lot of money and is incentivized with his media property to put on a good show, and that he probably won't move the team. He will probably shut down the 905 and run Masai out of town. Masai hasn't had the receipts of late to keep his position, and I've argued in the past year or so that he's heel-turned on the qualities that made him an excellent leader of the Raptors in the past. This year is critical for him in proving that his decisions were worth it. It may still be too late, but he has to do better to prove that Ed Rogers will be wrong in letting him go.

I mean he picked up Bruce Brown's option, so... was that just spitting in the face of Rogers, daring them to fire him?

[Randle McMurphy]

It’s like reading this place back in 2012 with as many Masai apologists as there are still. I honestly think he’d get a 10+ year free pass of mediocrity from MLSE if it wasn’t for Rogers taking over.

this is a pretty dumb take b/c masai delivered a championship. so that's on the resume and something that nobody thought would ever happen so yes, that buys you some time.

secondly, i, as a fan, have no control over anything. so it comes down to how you want to be a fan. if you want to whine and complain over stuff you can't control, then it's your right, just like it's other people's rights to think you are a whiner and complainer.

if he quits or is let go...then fine. on to the next exec and hope he wins. it ain't that deep and it ain't that personal. none of this is influenced by any of the idiots that post on online forums.

I should have added that it's even worse than BC's apologists in 2012 here exactly because Masai won a championship. These endless posts from his backers defending his (self-admitted) mismanagement remind me of how it was then but even on a grander scale.

So many have been so willing to ignore his enormous failures as an executive this decade because he won five years ago and that isn't any way to bring this team back to relevance. Fortunately, we're soon going to have an owner who almost certainly won't give him that free pass.

[Raps in 4]

It’s like reading this place back in 2012 with as many Masai apologists as there are still. I honestly think he’d get a 10+ year free pass of mediocrity from MLSE if it wasn’t for Rogers taking over.

this is a pretty dumb take b/c masai delivered a championship. so that's on the resume and something that nobody thought would ever happen so yes, that buys you some time.

secondly, i, as a fan, have no control over anything. so it comes down to how you want to be a fan. if you want to whine and complain over stuff you can't control, then it's your right, just like it's other people's rights to think you are a whiner and complainer.

if he quits or is let go...then fine. on to the next exec and hope he wins. it ain't that deep and it ain't that personal. none of this is influenced by any of the idiots that post on online forums.

I should have added that it's even worse than BC's apologists in 2012 here exactly because Masai won a championship. These endless posts from his backers defending his (self-admitted) mismanagement remind me of how it was then but even on a grander scale.

So many have been so willing to ignore his enormous failures as an executive this decade because he won five years ago and that isn't any way to bring this team back to relevance. Fortunately, we're soon going to have an owner who almost certainly won't give him that free pass.

Masai's career record as an executive is 660-452 (.594). His teams won 50+ games 6 times. He has 1 title. He's been one of the most successful executives in baskeball over the the last 15 years.